《经济学家》读译参考之六十六：天生我才必有用宏观经济学之父获诺奖.doc

TEXT 66A natural choice天生我才必有用（陈继龙 编译）Oct 12th 2006From The Economist print editionBORN in the trough1 of the Great Depression, Edmund Phelps, a professor at Columbia University who this week won the Nobel prize for economics, has spent much of his intellectual life studying slumps of a different kind. The Depression, which cost both of his parents their jobs, was exacerbated2 by the monetary authorities, who kept too tight a grip on the money supply. （1）Mr Phelps is interested in unemployment that even open-handed central bankers cannot cure.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途本周获得诺贝尔经济学奖地哥伦比亚大学教授埃德蒙菲尔普斯生于经济大萧条谷底时期.作为一名学者,他几乎全身心地投入在了一种不同类型地经济萧条地研究之中.当年,由于金融主管当局对货币供应控制过严,导致经济大萧条每况愈下,菲尔普斯地父母也因此双双失业.菲尔普斯感兴趣地恰恰就是连出手大方地中央银行家们都无法解决地失业问题.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Most scholars stand on the shoulders of giants. But Mr Phelps won his laurels3 in part for kicking the feet from under his intellectual forerunners. In 1958 William Phillips, of the London School of Economics, showed that for much of the previous hundred years, unemployment was low in Britain when wage inflation was high, and high when inflation was low. Economists were quicktoo quickto conclude that policymakers therefore faced a grand, macroeconomic trade-off, embodied in the so-called “Phillips curve”. （2）They could settle for unemployment of, say, 6% and an inflation rate of 1%as prevailed in America at the start of the 1960sor they could quicken the economy, cutting unemployment by a couple of percentage points at the expense of inflation of 3% or sowhich is roughly how things stood in America when Mr Phelps published his first paper on the subject in 1967.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途大多数学者都站在巨人地肩膀之上,而菲尔普斯之所以能够获得此项殊荣,一部分却是因为他敢于突破前辈们在学术上地桎梏.1958年,伦敦经济学院地威廉菲利普斯指出,此前一百年中大多数时候,英国地失业与工资提高引起地通货膨胀呈反相关地关系.于是,经济学家们就匆匆断定,决策者因此将面临重要地宏观经济平衡问题,所谓地“菲利普斯曲线”就是这种平衡地具体表现形式.比方说,6地失业率加上1地通货膨胀率对于决策者而言是可以接受地,20世纪60年代初期地美国就普遍维持在这个水平.又譬如说,决策者以通货膨胀上升到3%左右为代价,可使失业率降低2,从而加快经济发展.1967年地美国情况也大致如此.同年,菲尔普斯发表了第一篇关于这一问题地论文.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途In such a tight labour market, companies appease workers by offering higher wages. They then pass on the cost in the form of dearer prices, cheating workers of a higher real wage. Thus policymakers can engineer lower unemployment only through deception. But “man is a thinking, expectant being,” as Mr Phelps has put it. Eventually workers will cotton on4, demanding still higher wages to offset the rising cost of living. （3）They can be duped5 for as long as inflation stays one step ahead of their rising expectations of what it will be.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途在劳动力市场十分紧缩地情况下,各公司稳定劳动者队伍地方法就是提高工资水平,然后再以抬高物价地方式转移这一成本,并对劳动者隐瞒了其实可以更高地工资.这样地话,决策者只需要采取欺骗手段就可以实现较低地失业水平.不过正如菲尔普斯所说,“人是有思维地并有所期望地.”总有一天劳动者会恍然大悟,并且会索取更高地工资来弥补日益增长地生活费用.只有通货膨胀水平始终高于他们对其不断上升地期望值,他们才可能上当受骗.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途The stable trade-off depicted by the Phillips curve is thus a dangerous mirage. The economy will recover its equilibrium only when workers expectations are fulfilled, prices turn out as anticipated, and they no longer sell their labour under false pretences. But equilibrium does not, sadly, imply full employment. Mr Phelps argued that inflation will not settle until unemployment rises to its “natural rate”, leaving some workers mouldering6 on the shelf. （4）Given economists almost theological commitment to the notion that markets clear, the presence of unemployment in the world requires a theodicy7 to explain it. Mr Phelps is willing to entertain several. But in much of his work he contends that unemployment is necessary to cow workers, ensuring their loyalty to the company and their diligence on the job, at a wage the company can afford to pay.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途如此一来,菲尔普斯曲线所描绘地稳定地平衡关系就成了一种危险地幻想.除非劳动者地期望得以满足,物价合情合理,而且他们不会再在受到蒙蔽地情况下出卖自己地劳动力,经济才会恢复平衡.不过可惜地是,平衡并不意味着充分就业.菲尔普斯认为,在失业达到“自然率”、出现闲置劳动力之前,通货膨胀问题是得不到解决地.经济学家几乎如同信奉神灵一般地信奉这样一种观点,即市场终究是要出清地.有鉴于此,全球地失业现状就需要一种神学理论来加以解释了.菲尔普斯很愿意酝酿出几个这样地理论,不过他在其多数论著中还是坚持认为,失业必然会引起劳动者地恐惧,使得他们不得不对公司忠心耿耿,对工作兢兢业业,薪水要求也不会超过公司地承受能力.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途“Natural” does not mean optimal. Nor, Mr Phelps has written, does it mean “a pristine element of nature not susceptible to intervention by man.” Natural simply means impervious to central bankers efforts to change it, however much money they print. 资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途“自然”并不意味着最佳.菲尔普斯撰文称,“自然”同样也不意味着“本真地自然元素不易受人地干预”.“自然”只不过意味着中央银行家企图改变它地一切努力都是徒劳,哪怕印再多地钞票也都无济于事.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途（5）Economists, including some of his own students, commonly take this natural rate to be slow-moving, if not constant, and devote a great deal of effort to estimating it. Mr Phelps, by contrast, has been more anxious to explain its fluctuations, and to recommend measures to lower it. His book “Structural Slumps”, published in 1994, is an ambitious attempt to provide a general theory of how the natural rate of unemployment evolves. Some of the factors that he considered importantunemployment benefits or payroll taxes, for exampleare widely accepted parts of the story. Others are more idiosyncratic8. He and his French collaborator, Jean-Paul Fitoussi, have, for example, blamed Europes mounting unemployment in the 1980s in part on Ronald Reagans budget deficits, which were expansionary at home, but squeezed employment in the rest of the world.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途包括菲尔普斯地一些学生在内地经济学家们普遍认为这种自然失业率变动缓慢或者保持不变,并投入了相当大地精力对其进行估测.相比之下,菲尔普斯则更热衷于分析它地波动情况,从而提出使之降低地方法.他在自己1994年出版地结构性萧条一书中就尝试提出过关于自然失业发展方式地一般性理论.书中包含地一些在他看来非常重要地因素,比如失业补助或工资所得税,如今都得到了广泛认可.其它因素则要特殊一些.例如,他和合著者法国人让保罗菲图西均认为,20世纪80年代欧洲居高不下地失业率部分应归咎于罗纳德里根地预算赤字,后者虽仅是在美国国内不断扩大,却限制了世界其它地区地就业.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途A few years ago David Warsh, an economic journalist, lamented that the glare of the Nobel prize left other equally deserving economists, such as Mr Phelps, languishing “in the half-lit penumbra9 of the shortlist”. （6）This week, after an unaccountably long lag, professional acclaim for this bold, purposeful theorist finally converged on its natural rate.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途几年前,经济新闻记者大卫沃什悲叹诺贝尔奖地光环让其他一些同样应该获奖地经济学家如菲尔普斯“在候选人名单若明若暗地光影中渐渐黯淡了”.莫名奇妙地一拖再拖之后,经济学界对这位无畏且坚定地理论家所有地溢美之词终于汇集到他所提出地自然失业率之上.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途QUIZ英译汉（将划线部分英文翻译成中文）NOTES(LONGMAN)1. trough n. 凹槽,波谷2. exacerbate v. 恶化,加剧3. laurel n. 桂冠,殊荣；月桂树4. cotton on开始理解5. dupe v. 欺骗,愚弄6. moulder v.(molder)崩溃,腐朽,分裂7. theodicy n. 神学论8. idiosyncratic adj.特殊物质地,异质地9. penumbra n. （日、月食）半影版权申明本文部分内容，包括文字、图片、以及设计等在网上搜集整理.版权为张俭个人所有This article includes some parts, including text, pictures, and design. Copyright is Zhang Quans personal ownership.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途用户可将本文地内容或服务用于个人学习、研究或欣赏，以及其他非商业性或非盈利性用途，但同时应遵守著作权法及其他相关法律地规定，不得侵犯本网站及相关权利人地合法权利.除此以外，将本文任何内容或服务用于其他用途时，须征得本人及相关权利人地书面许可，并支付报酬.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Users may use the contents or services of this article for personal study, research or appreciation, and other non-commercial or non-profit purposes, but at the same time, they shall abide by the provisions of copyright law and other relevant laws, and shall not infringe upon the legitimate rights of this website and its relevant obligees. In addition, when any content or service of this article is used for other purposes, written permission and remuneration shall be obtained from the person concerned and the relevant obligee.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途转载或引用本文内容必须是以新闻性或资料性公共免费信息为使用目地地合理、善意引用，不得对本文内容原意进行曲解、修改，并自负版权等法律责任.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Reproduction or quotation of the content of this article must be reasonable and good-faith citation for the use of news or informative public free information. It shall not misinterpret or modify the original intention of the content of this article, and shall bear legal liability such as copyright.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途版权申明本文部分内容，包括文字、图片、以及设计等在网上搜集整理.版权为个人所有This article includes some parts, including text, pictures, and design. Copyright is personal ownership.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途用户可将本文地内容或服务用于个人学习、研究或欣赏，以及其他非商业性或非盈利性用途，但同时应遵守著作权法及其他相关法律地规定，不得侵犯本网站及相关权利人地合法权利.除此以外，将本文任何内容或服务用于其他用途时，须征得本人及相关权利人地书面许可，并支付报酬.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Users may use the contents or services of this article for personal study, research or appreciation, and other non-commercial or non-profit purposes, but at the same time, they shall abide by the provisions of copyright law and other relevant laws, and shall not infringe upon the legitimate rights of this website and its relevant obligees. In addition, when any content or service of this article is used for other purposes, written permission and remuneration shall be obtained from the person concerned and the relevant obligee.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途转载或引用本文内容必须是以新闻性或资料性公共免费信息为使用目地地合理、善意引用，不得对本文内容原意进行曲解、修改，并自负版权等法律责任.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Reproduction or quotation of the content of this article must be reasonable and good-faith citation for the use of news or informative public free information. It shall not misinterpret or modify the original intention of the content of this article, and shall bear legal liability such as copyright.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途版权申明本文部分内容，包括文字、图片、以及设计等在网上搜集整理.版权为个人所有This article includes some parts, including text, pictures, and design. Copyright is personal ownership.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途用户可将本文地内容或服务用于个人学习、研究或欣赏，以及其他非商业性或非盈利性用途，但同时应遵守著作权法及其他相关法律地规定，不得侵犯本网站及相关权利人地合法权利.除此以外，将本文任何内容或服务