kotler04_im_Marketing management笔记.doc

此文档收集于网络，如有侵权，请联系网站删除CONDUCTING MARKETING RESEARCH AND FORECASTING DEMAND4 C H A P T E R LEARNING OBJECTIVESAfter reading this chapter, students should:q Know what constitutes good marketing researchq Know what are good metrics for measuring marketing productivityq Know how marketers can assess their returns on investment of marketing expendituresq Know how companies can more accurately measure and forecast demandCHAPTER SUMMARY Companies can conduct their own marketing research or hire other companies to do it for them. Good marketing research is characterized by the scientific method, creativity, multiple research methods, accurate model building, cost-benefit analysis, healthy skepticism, and an ethical focus. The marketing research process consists of defining the problem and research objective, developing the research plan, collecting the information, analyzing the information, presenting the findings to management, and making the decision. In conducting research, firms must decide whether to collect their own data or use data that already exists. They must also decide which research approach (observational, focus group, survey, behavioral data, or experimental) and which research instruments (questionnaire or mechanical instruments) to use. In addition, they must decide on a sampling plan and contact methods. Analysis should ensure that the company achieves the sales, profits, and other goals established in its annual plan. The main tools are sales analysis, market-share analysis, marketing expense-to-sales analysis, and financial analysis of the marketing plan. Profitability analysis seeks to measure and control the profitability of various products, territories, customer groups, trade channels, and order sizes. An important part of controlling profitability is assigning costs and generating profit-and-loss statements.There are two types of demand: market demand and company demand. To estimate current demand, companies attempt to determine total market potential, area market potential, industry sales, and market share. To estimate future demand, companies survey the buyers intentions, solicit companies sales force input, gather expert opinions, or engage in market testing. Mathematical models, advanced statistical techniques, and computerized data collection procedures are essential to all types of demand and sales forecasting. OPENING THOUGHT To many of the students enrolled in marketing, the topics of statistics, analysis, and financial modeling will cause their eyes to “roll in their heads” as the thought of calculating numbers creates stress. The instructor is encouraged to emphasize to the students that good marketers need good numbers in order to make good decisions. Marketing research is primarily a quantitative process in which consumers thoughts, actions, and purchase intensions are collected to form the basis of marketing decisions. As a result, marketing research involves translating actions, or behavioral intentions to numbers. Most students will relate to the more “exciting side” of marketing researchfocus groups for instance, but will shy away from the qualitative side of number crunching. If the analysis is presented as a “means to an end” then the process should be accepted with greater enthusiasm. In todays world of marketing, marketing managers are increasingly being asked to justify their expenditures. As a result, good marketing managers and good students of marketing should be very comfortable with the statistical and financial analyses presented in this chapter. TEACHING STRATEGY AND CLASS ORGANIZATIONPROJECTS1. At this point in the semester-long marketing plan project, the students initial marketing research parameters should be completed, demand forecasted, and target market selections defined.2. Commission a marketing research study on topic(s) of interest to the students at your institution. During the course of the semester (1516 week), have the students develop the questionnaire, collection method, conduct the survey, and tabulate the results. The students can be divided into groups for this project. Suggested topics can include the school or university students opinions of campus issues such as the athletic program, sale of alcohol, use of and availability of technology, or students perceptions of their current education experiences. 3. Sonic PDA Marketing Plan Sonic has developed a sales forecast for its new PDA for the next two years. Jane Melody wants to review estimates of industry demand for PDAs. She also wants to develop an approach for measuring the effectiveness of Sonics marketing efforts. She has asked you to: Determine, from available secondary data, estimates of total demand for PDAs for the next two years. She understands you will have to do Internet searches and determine industry trade association sources for such data. Look at the various ways to evaluate marketing effectiveness and recommend to her the best way that Sonic can determine the effectiveness of its marketing efforts.Enter the answers to these questions in a written marketing plan or into the Sales Forecasting and Controls sections of Marketing Plan Pro.ASSIGNMENTSSmall Group Assignments1. Query your college or university regarding what kind of research it conducts regarding their student population and their competitive positioning versus other similar colleges and universities. After collecting this data, analyze it according to the following criteria: Is it current, accurate, specific, and applicable? Is this research composed of primary data, secondary data, or a combination of both? What research company does the college or university contract with for their research? Is the research based upon more quantitative or qualitative research? Present these findings to the class in oral and written formats. 2. Ask students to contact a local marketing research firm in the area for the purpose of an interview regarding research techniques, methods, and the difficulties in conducting research. Pre-approve the set of questions prepared by the students prior to the appointment. Ensure that the students will be able to collect information from the research company regarding how information is collected. Once it is collected, what are some of the difficulties faced by the researcher in presenting this information to the client? Individual Assignments1. In the Marketing Memo, Pros and Cons of Online Research, the author describes four advantages and two disadvantages for conducting online research. Selecting online research from the Web, each student is to comment on the “value” of this type of research vis-vis the advantages and disadvantages of the marketing memo. Specifically, do the negatives of online research, in their example, outweigh the positives? Can, and more importantly, should marketers develop marketing strategies from just the findings of online research? On the other hand, is more qualitative or quantitative research needed before strategy is defined? 2. In the Marketing Memo, Questionnaire Dos and Donts, the author lists 12 ways to phrase questions that will maximize unbiased responses. Prepare a set of questions (1012 questions) for a hypothetical consumer products company trying to break into the toy business. Make sure that your questions meet each one of these 12 criteria. Comment on how easy or hard such question formatting is. Think-Pair-Share1. During the course of the semester, ask students to retain all customer surveys, satisfaction surveys, or other types of research material sent to them, their parents, or others. Each survey should be critiqued by the student for appropriateness, completion, bias, etc. per the tenants outlined in this chapter. Why do these surveys contain errors? 2. In small groups, conduct a series of personal interviews with faculty members of your college or university. The research should involve a specific topic (of the students choice). The students must gain approval from the instructor, via written presentation, their types of questions, sample size, and sampling procedure prior to implementing their interviews. 3. A second group of students can conduct the same research but must use either a mail questionnaire, online, or telephone interview techniques. In a class presentation setting, students should compare and contrast their findings based upon these two different methodologies. Students should be prepared to answer some of these questions: Why is the data different? Where is the data forming the same or similar conclusions? What were the challenges to using each of these methods? What can be done in the future to minimize these challenges? MARKETING TODAYCLASS DISCUSSION TOPICSResearch conducted by Purdue University shows that up to 75 percent of consumers fail to complete their online purchases, primarily because of sluggish Web sites, poor site design, and related factors. Seeking to learn what online visitors do and do not do at its Web site, Northwest Airlines has added a new software tool to its online operations. “The success of our online business comes down to our customers and how satisfied they are with our products and services,” says Northwests manager of e-commerce. “This new tool,” he says, “makes it very easy to determine where we should focus our efforts” by analyzing the online behavior of visitors, finding out which affiliates send the most visitors to the site, and tracking response to online promotions. With this information, the airline will be able to make the site function more efficiently and more effectively to increase sales and customer satisfaction. Browse Northwests home page () and then follow the link to the “Talk to Us” page. Sample several of the links on this page to see how customers can submit questions and feedback. Would such data be included as part of Northwests marketing information system, marketing intelligence system, or marketing research system? Where would the airline store the primary data about online visitor behavior that its new software tool is collecting? What kind of research approach does this primary data represent? How else might Northwest use its Web site to gather primary data?Answer Feedback and questions from online customers would be included as part of Northwests marketing intelligence system, because this information concerns developments in the marketing environment. The airline would store the primary data about online visitor behavior in its data warehouse, specifically in its customer database. This research represents an observational approach because it involves observing what customers do online. Students may suggest numerous ways in which Northwest might use its Web site to gather primary data. One sample response: Northwest could use cookies to track how often customers visit the site, which pages they look at and for how long, how often their visits culminate in purchases, how many leave in the middle of a purchase but before finalizing the transaction, and other information.END-OF-CHAPTER SUPPORT MARKETING DEBATEWhat Is the Best Type of Marketing Research? Many marketing researchers have their favorite research approaches or techniques, although different researchers often have different preferences. Some researchers maintain that the only way to really learn about consumers or brands is through indepth, qualitative research. Others contend that the only legitimate and defensible form of marketing research involves quantitative measures. Take a position: Marketing research should be quantitative versus marketing research should be qualitative. Suggested ResponsePro: People are complex in their buying habits and purchase decision-making. Consumers, do not always have the capacity to voice, or understand how they decide to purchase a particular product or service. As a result, good marketing research should delve into the consumers “purchase decision trees” to understand hidden motivations and influences. Good qualitative research may undercover hidden purchase agendas, hidden uses for the product, or hidden opportunities for new, yet undeveloped products. Because of the freedom afforded to both researchers in their probes and consumers in their responses, qualitative research can often be a useful step in exploring consumers brand and product perceptions. The drawbacks of quantitative research, which include selection bias, response bias, and non-response, will always allow this type of research to be criticized for such shortcomings and their results discounted. Qualitative research, although having its own sets of disclaimers, closely describes the actions of consumersthat is what marketing is all about in the first placeto get someone to purchase something. Con: Quantitative research is the only accepted method of marketing research that can be scientifically defended. Quantitative research methods, techniques, and modeling have advanced substantially in recent years. Along with these advancements in techniques, quantitative research has improved in its predictability and accuracy due to more sophisticated mathematical processes. Quantitative research is also the most economically and timely research available today. With quantitative research, there is secondary data that can quickly be accessed further reducing time and cost considerations. As the world increases in its “speed of information” and “speed of living,” quick, accurate information becomes essential for a marketer to possess. With the proper framing of the research assignment and the proper set of specific research objectives, quantitative research is the most efficient method to gather the necessary information in the shortest time for the lowest cost. MARKETING DISCUSSIONWhen was the last time you participated in a survey? How helpful do you think the information was you provided? How could the research have been done differently to make it more effective? Suggested ResponseIndividual student answers will depend upon the survey chosen, however, the students should frame their responses in terms of some of the main topics of this chapter MARKETING SPOTLIGHTSonyDiscussion Questions:1) What have been the key success factors for SONY?a. SONY has three types of creativity: to make inventions, creativity in product planning and production, and creativity in marketing.b. Creativity in marketing means deep insight into its customers.c. SONY also carefully measures the effectiveness of each campaign by pre-testing these campaigns.d. Sonys Gen Y youth marketing efforts with its online program promoting the Internet usage and tracking the respondents “click-throughs.”2) Where is SONY vulnerable?a. In its belief that the next wave of consumer electronics will come from the integration of numerous devices networked and linked together. b. A lapse of marketing research caused by corporate changes or financial setbacks.c. Corporate complacency due to success.3) What should it watch out for?a. The effectiveness of its marketing research in identifying emerging trends.b. The temptation to expand into other consumer products outside of its core competencies.4) What recommendations would you make to senior marketing executives going forward?a. Accept your competencies, accept your limitations, and capitalize on your strengths.b. Continue to believe that marketing research is the underlying foundation of your product development processes and marketing successes. 5) What should they be sure to do with their marketing? a. Continue to target their marketing to identify those segments of the total market that are receptive to new and innovative products and ideas.b. Concentrate on the next generation of consumersthe Millenniums and conduct research into what type of consumers this group is and will become.DETAILED CHAPTER OUTLINEIn addition to monitoring a changing marketing environment, marketers also need to develop specific knowledge about their particular markets. Good marketers want information to help them interpret past performance as well as plan future activities. Marketers need timely, accurate, and actionable information on consumers, competition, and their brands. MARKETING RESEARCH SYSTEMMarketing managers often commission formal marketing studies of specific problems and opportunities. A) They may request a(n):1) Market survey.2) Product-preference test.3) Sales forecast by region.4) Advertising evaluation.B) It is the job of the marketing researcher to produce insight into the customers attitudes and buying behavior.C) We define marketing research as the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.D) Most large companies have marketing research departments.E) At smaller companies, marketing research is often carried out by everyone in the company.F) Companies normally budget marketing research at one to two percent of company sales.G) Marketing research firms fall into three categories:1) Syndicated-service research firms.2) Custom marketing research firms.3) Specialty-line marketing research firms.H) Small companies can hire the services of a marketing research firm or conduct research in creative and affordable ways, such as:1) Engaging students or professors to design and carry out projects.2) Using the Internet.3) Checking out rivals.I) Most companies use a combination of marketing research resources to study industries, competitors, audiences, and channel strategies.Review Key Definitions here: marketing research, syndicated-service research firms, custom marketing research firms, and spec