2015全球奢侈品市场监控（英文版）

This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bains prior written consent,Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor2015 Spring Update,Claudia DArpizio,Milan, May 21st 2015,Global luxury hit 224B in 2014 despite slowdown in realterms, over 3T cumulated retail sales in the last 20 yearsGLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET TREND (1994-2014E|B),Subprime &financial crisis,Sept 11 SARS $/,Socio-EconomicTurbulence,K,3%4%7%10%5%2,3,2014 growth in line with 2013 also thanks to Euro weaknessin H2GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET TREND (2013-2014E|B),+3%,+3%,Note: currency exchange rates indexed: Q4 2014 average=100,Europe,Asia-PacificJapanAmericas,Rest of World,+2%,+2%+1%+4%,+2%,+3%+9%+4%,YoY 14E vs. 13K+3% +4%+4% +5%,Positive performance of mature markets and Middle East,heterogeneous trends in AsiaWHEREGLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET BY AREA (13-14E|B),Overall good performance; Middle Eastslowdown in H2 driven by Russianspending decline and oil price dropimpacting locals trend,Weakening euro driving H2 betterperformance thanks to touristic flows4,Mixed performance: stagnation inGreater China offset by brisk growth inSouth KoreaRecord growth in real terms; VATincrease softening local spending in H2,Sound local and touristic consumption;currency effect offsetting H2 slightslowdown,OtherBeautyHard LuxuryApparelAccessories,+3%+0%+2%+2%+2%+4%,Accessories confirming market leadership in absolute andrelative termsWHATGLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET BY CATEGORY (13-14E|B)YoY 14E vs. 13,US and emerging markets the maingrowth drivers; cosmetics (bothskincare and make-up) outperformingfragrancesWatches sales rather stable at globallevel, with H2 Euro devaluation vs.Swiss Franc partially offsettingworsening situation in Asia; Jewelryoutperforming on solid fundamentalsHigh dynamism of womenswear whilemixed trends in menswear, hit bynegative impact of Mainland ChinaShoes confirmed top performingcategory; ongoing polarization inleather goods; mens segmentoutperforming across the board5,6,(USD stable)(JPY devaluation)(GBP appreciation)(CHF appreciation)(CNY appreciation),USD/EURJPY/EURGBP/EURCHF/EURCNY/EUR,Low single digit growth in 2015Q1 in real terms thenboosted by weak EuroWORLDWIDE PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET TREND CONSTANT AND CURRENT EXCHANGE RATES (2014E-Q1 2015F),(USD appreciation)(JPY appreciation)(GBP appreciation)(CHF appreciation)(CNY appreciation),+,+,Currency fluctuations are becoming a real challenge for theindustry, impacting on price differentials and tourist flows,AVERAGE PRICE VS. *(%|MID 2014),UK,Russia,USA,Brazil,China,Hong Kong,S.Korea,Japan,UAE, Currency fluctuations (e.g. Euro devaluation) Standard and exceptional price adjustmentsimplemented by luxury brandsAVERAGE PRICE VS. *(%|MID 2015)Brands emerging pricing strategies mainly targeting stability of price differentials,with some testing a real price harmonization on selected items*Note: price differential based on a panel of carry over leather goods items by European brands7,8,Western Europe strongly supported by Asian tourism alsohelped by currency fluctuations; Eastern EU still sufferingEUROPE LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B),K,+3-5%,+2%+4%,+2%+2%,YoY %, Weak euro supporting inbound tourism inthe Euro zone (especially from China and US),- Italy starting to recover: good start of the yearsustained by tourists and timid rebound ofmultibrand channel; Milan #1 shoppingdestination with ad-hoc initiatives set up for theEXPO 2015 to provide extra impulse- Spain rebound above expectations- France positive trend pulled by Paris, Soft Q1 in UK but Chinese and MiddleEastern supporting the market, Sound Northern Europe despite lessrelevant contribution of tourists- Germans most solid local consumers Switzerland negative due to CHFappreciation redirecting touristic and localflows to Italy and France Eastern Europe still suffering apart from fewexceptions, with Russia still on a negativetrend in 2015,Weak euroattracting touristicspending in Europe,Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures,9,US below expectations in 2015 losing the support ofincreasingly relevant touristic shoppingAMERICAS LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B), Decrease of touristic shopping: strongdollar partially offset by selected priceadjustments- Chinese decrease impacting US west coast andHawaii, Las Vegas, and NYC, while LatinAmerican e Russian impacting Miami, Robust yet not booming local consumption- Exceptional cold impacting Q1- Slow rebound of upper middle class- Department stores pushing off-price sales andchannels- Overall positive trend of mens categories E-com outperforming across formats- Volatile topline ever more exposed to touristicflows with steady increasing rental costs in toplocations questioning brick & mortar sustainability, Canada maintaining sound trend; unevenperformance across Latin America, alsoimpacted by oil price decline,+1-3%,+5%+9%,+4%+4%,YoY %,Stronger USD vs. EUR in 2015;ongoing devaluation of Real decreasingBrazilian purchasing power,K,Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures,10,Tourismization of Japan completely changing marketdynamics and requiring new initiatives to serve consumersJAPAN LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B),K, Fastest growing market in real terms Becoming #1 touristic destination for Chinese- +83% Chinese inbound tourists in 2014 and+160% YoY in Feb.2015,- Up to 40% price differential vs. Mainland China- Touristic purchase reaching up to 20% share infirst months of 2015 vs. 5-10% in 2014- Tokyo still capturing most of this new impulsedespite new visas regulations attempting to pushother entry points in the country,- Growing need for Chinese speaking personnelnot easily drawn by the local talent pool, Overall economy impacted by 2014 VATincrease reducing consumer confidence andlocal consumption- Decreasing GDP in Q2 and Q3 2014, bouncingback in Q4, with 2% growth expected in 2015- Sentiment remains soft despite the delay of thesecond VAT increase,+5-7%,-10%+14%,+1%+9%,YoY %,Yen devaluation attracting bothChinese and Korean consumers,Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures,Greater,China,South,Korea,South East,Asia,Chinese flows guiding Asian markets performance,supporting Korea and SEA at the expenses of Greater ChinaASIA PACIFIC LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B),K,-1/+1%,+5%+8%,+2%+3%, 2015 transition year for Mainland Chinawith still lackluster performance, Hong Kong and Macau worst performerslosing Mainland Chinese support(demonstrations, new HK visa rules; Macaugambling income reduction); positive long-term expectations on Macau thanks tonew developments and connections to China Taiwan gaining traction on Chinese Very dynamic South Korea thanks toChinese flows redirected from HK- Booming duty-free (70% share of Chinese)- Particularly good performance of Jeju, Bousan,Gangwonv province and Seoul Singapore stealing VIP gamblers fromMacau, Luxury real estate investments inIndonesia (Jakarta and Surabaya), Chinese providing dynamism to Thailand11,+,-+,12,CNY,Chinas moment of truth: all key market actors strugglingto revamp the marketMAINLAND CHINA LUXURY GOODS MARKET (2012-2015F|B), Uneven brands and categories performance- Still negative impact of clampdown on lavishspending,- Increasing overseas purchase driven by pricedifferentials and currency fluctuations Key actors struggling with new approaches- Government attempting to foster domesticconsumption: fight grey market through visarestriction to HK, discussions about tariff cuts andnew anti-daigou regulations- Brands testing price differentials reduction; newtalent programs to raise service level andincreasingly looking at HENRYs,- Real estate developers turning malls intoentertainment spots and introducing new travelretail formats to intercept middle class Consumers looking for bargain 360,- Outperformance of accessible brands, outletcenters, duty-free areas, off-price e-commerce,+3%+4%,0%-1%,YoY %,Stronger CYN vs. EUR, JPY and KRWincreasing Chinese purchasing powerin Europe, Japan and Korea,-2/-4%,Note: 2015F exchange rate variation refers to the average Jan 2015 - May 2015 YTD figures,K,While Chinese consumer spending is relentlessly growingalways more skewed towards foreign (cheaper) shoppingCHINESE SPENDING EVOLUTION (2000-2015F |B),K,Growing relevanceof domestic marketdriven by increasingmarket penetrationby global luxurybrands,Higher awareness ofprice differential andincreased consumersmobility driving growthof foreign spending andstagnant local trend13,Global Chinese spending evolution byshopping destination (2000-2015F |B)Foreign spendingMainland China spending,Chinese fastest growingnationality for personal luxurygoods spending, surpassing30% of total market in 2015F,Global personal luxury goods marketevolution by nationality (2000-2015F |B)Chinese spending,14,Chinese tourists currently redirecting spending within Asiaand enjoying weak Euro, thus compromising US market trend,Flows and spending redirecting,within APAC,- Decline in HK for new visa,regulations and in Macau for lavishspending control,- Booming South Korea and Japan,sound flows in Taiwan, Australiaand SEA (especially Thailand),15,EuropeAmericasJapanAsia Pacificex Mainland ChinaMainland ChinaROW,+3/+5%+1/+3%+5/+7%-1/+1%-2/-4%+1/+3%+2-4%K,2015FY: still positive outlook as constant exchange ratesexpected to be highly inflated by currency effect2015F EXPECTED GROWTH RATES BY REGION, Limited price awareness andconsciousness- Limited role of online- Multiple currencies in Europe- 10-15% of off-price market Market more balanced betweentourist and local consumption- 35% of sales made to tourists- Mostly Japanese and US touristicshopping going to Europe 140M luxury consumersglobally- Chinese consumers accounting forless than 2% of total spending, Significant price awareness andgrowing price consciousness- 60%+ brands with website withfull price transparency across marketsinfluencing vast majority of sales- 30%+ of off-price market Huge and hectic role of touristicspending across all geographies- 50% of sales made to tourists- Mostly Chinese touristic shopping- Diverse and volatile flows routes 350M+ luxury consumersglobally- Chinese consumers accounting for30%+ of total spending16,Current currencies dynamics put the spotlight on thestructural changes of luxury industry in last 15 yearsGLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY MARKET EVOLUTION (2000-2015F|B)K,17,raising the urgency for luxury players to re-think somekey strategic pillars with a long-term mindset,PRICING STRATEGY,How to re-think pricing to maximizelocal and touristic spending while,safeguarding margins? Which is the beststrategy to maximize China long termpotential?,DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY,Whats the right distribution blueprint in thedifferent regions?,How the role of the stores has to change?How to change the accountability model tobetter analyze the new value drivers?,CONSUMER STRATEGY,How and where to engage consumers?How to serve very diverse consumersegments and generations?,Who will have ownership of consumers?,People, Passion, Results!,Claudia DArpizio, PartnerBains Luxury Goods VerticalClaudia DArpizio is a Partner at Bain & Company Milan office. She is aleading member of the firms Global Consumer Products and Retail Practices,and leads Bains Luxury Goods Vertical.,For 20 years, Claudia has advised multinational clients, mainly in luxury andfashion goods. She has extensively worked on issues relating to corporate andbusiness unit strategy, sales and marketing, product and service adjacencies,channel and omni-channel strategy, new product development, innovation,acquisitions and divestitures, performance improvement and organizationalchanges.Claudia is the lead author of the Bains Yearly Luxury Study, developedsince 1999 in cooperation with Altagamma, the trade association of the Italianluxury brands. This study, based on the analysis of an extensive panel ofworldwide luxury brands, is periodically updated and has become one of themost valued and cited sources of market information in the luxury industry.Claudia is a globally recognized expert in luxury and in 2009 was named bythe Consulting Magazine one of the “Top 25 Consultants in the World”.Claudia is frequent speaker and writer on luxury goods strategy and she isextensively quoted in Italian and international media: Il sole 24 ore, LaRepubblica, Il Corriere della Sera, The Wall Street Journal, US, Europe and Asiaeditions, Financial Times, New York Times, The Economist, Newsweek, Reuters,Bloomberg, Associated Press, WWD, Fortune, Washington Post, InternationalHerald Tribune, National Post Business Magaz