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R I P GOODTIMES NOWWHAT 1 WALLSTREET HOWDIDWEGETHERE ERICUPIN 3 MULTIPLEPROBLEMS HOUSINGLEDRECESSIONOVERLEVERAGEDFINANCIALSFALLINGASSETPRICESFROZENCREDITMARKETSWEAKHOUSEHOLDBALANCESHEETGLOBALLYSYNCHRONIZEDSLOWINGEXACERBATINGALLOFABOVEFORCESOFINFLATIONVERSUSFORCESOFDEFLATION MARKETCYCLESARELONG DowJonesIndustrials solidline Inflation dottedline 15 000 BearMarket BullMarket 15 10 0005 000 1966 1982 1983 2000 105 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 Source BureauofLaborStatistics DowJones DRIVENBYPRODUCTIVITYANDCENTRALBANK Sizeofglobalworkforce Indexedglobalproductivity Fedfundsrate 4B 150 10 8 3 6 2 125 4 1 2 0 100 0 1980 1990 2000 2008 1996 2002 2006 1990 1995 2000 2005Sep2008 Source FederalReserve InternationalLabourOrganization RESULTINGINFALLINGINFLATIONANDCOST OFDEBT U S inflation annualyear yearCPIchange 25 Yieldon10 yearU S treasuries16 12158Average5 5 Average 40 1950196019701980199020002007 1960 1970 1980 19902000 June2008 Source BureauofLaborStatistics FederalReserve FUELINGANATIONOFCONSUMERS U S currentaccount GDP2 0 2 4 6 8 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source Bureauofeconomicanalysis FOREIGN sRECYCLEDINTOTREASURIES DEMANDKEEPSLONGER TERMRATES U S BUYSFOREIGNGOODS LOWFOREIGNCOUNTRIESUSEPROCEEDSTOBUYTREASURIES ASARESULT DEBTBALLOONED Source Bridgewater DEPENDENTONTHEKINDNESSOFSTRANGERS Source Bridgewater LIQUIDITYANDEASINGSPREADTOHOUSING Singlefamilyhousingstarts DistributionofU S dollarmortgageoriginations 2M 100 Government Prime Jumbo80Prime Average 60 Conforming 140Alt A20Subprime 01980198519901995200020052008E 0 2002 2006 Source Bridgewater NationalAssociationofHomeBuilders HOMEPRICESGREWSUBSTANTIALLYABOVE MEAN U S realhomepriceindex2501998 20068 0 annualized 200150 1900 1929 1930 19970 7 annualized 1 2 annualized1005019101920193019401950196019701980199020002007Source RobertShiller STRUCTUREDPRODUCTSANDREGULATORY CHANGESCOMPOUNDTHESEISSUES GROWTHINSECURITIZATIONSLEVERAGEONTHOSESTRUCTURESINCREASEDLEVERAGEONBANK SBALANCESHEETSOFTENMIS RATEDBYAGENCIESREPEALOFGLASS STEAGALLREGULATORYCHANGESENCOURAGINGHOMEOWNERSHIP HUGEGROWTHINDERIVATIVES OutstandingamountofopenpositionsinOTCderivativesmarkets 525T35035xU S GDP175 01995 1998 2001 2004 U S GDP2007 Note Outstandingamountisnotapuremeasureofriskassomepositionsarenettedandhavecollateral U S GDPwas 13 8Tin2007Source BankforInternationalSettlements SIGNIFICANTEXCESSCAPACITY Source Bridgewater VERYTIGHTCREDIT Highyieldspreads basispoints Investmentgradespreads basispoints 1 250 500 1 000 400 750500250 300200100 01998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 01998 2000 20022004 2006 2008 Source MerrillLynch JAPANMAYBEINSTRUCTIVE NikkeiIndex1988 present Japanesediscountrate AnnualrealGDPgrowth 40 000 8 6 30 000 6 3 Average 20 000 4 0 10 000 2 3 0 0 6 19901995 20002005Oct2008 1990199520002005Jul 08 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source BankofJapan YahooFinance KEYTHEMES GLOBALSECULARNOT NORMALCRISIS WILLTAKETIMECREDITNOTEQUITYDRIVENSIGNIFICANTRISKTOGDPGROWTHPOTENTIALFORGREATERREGULATORYREFORMS SCRUTINY OURTAKE MANAGEWHATYOUCANCONTROLSPENDINGGROWTHASSUMPTIONSEARNINGSASSUMPTIONSFOCUSONQUALITYLOWERRISKREDUCEDEBT MAINSTREET WHEREAREWENOW MICHAELBECKWITH 21 THEU S ANATIONOFCONSUMERS THECHANGINGFACEOFTHEECONOMY TRILLIONSTOTALU S GDPCONSUMERSPENDINGCONSUMERAS OFTOTALGDPDISPOSABLEPERSONALINCOME 19874 73 166 3 5 19978 35 870 6 0 200713 810 173 10 2 Source BureauofEconomicAnalysis HOMEOWNERSHIP EXPLOSIONINHOMEOWNERSHIP LONG TERMAVERAGE Source CurrentPopulationSurvey HousingVacancySurvey SeriesH 111Reports BureauoftheCensus Washington DC20233 WAGEGROWTH PERSONALSAVINGS PERSONALSAVINGSRATEPERSONALSAVINGSRATEEVAPORATEDREALWAGEGROWTHFELL FALLINGREALWAGESERODINGPCE Source BureauofEconomicAnalysis FederalReserve Haver BureauofLaborStatistics CensusBureau Factset MorganStanleyResearch CONSUMERSBUCKLINGUNDERDEBT HOUSEHOLDDEBTSERVICERATIO HOUSEHOLDFINANCIALOBLIGATIONRATIO DSR DEBTPAYMENTSONOUTSTANDINGMORTGAGESANDCONSUMERDEBT DISPOSABLEPERSONALINCOMEFOR ADDSAUTOMOBILELEASEPAYMENTS RENTALPAYMENTS H O SINSURANCEANDPROPERTYTAXPAYMENTSTOTHEDSR Source BureauofEconomicAnalysis MEWsBECAMETHENEWPIGGYBANK MEWCONTINUESTOFADE Source Haver BEA NAHB ConferenceBoard EIA MorganStanleyResearch FROMVIRTUOUSTOVISCIOUSCYCLE MORTGAGERESET UNEMPLOYMENTSPIKESHIGHER DELINQUENCIES FORECLOSURES PRICESFALLMEWSDECREASECONSUMERSPENDFALLSJOBMARKETERODESRECESSIONSource FederalReserve Haver BureauofLaborStatistics CensusBureau Factset MorganStanleyResearch Case Shiller DBGlobalMarketResearch ONTHEBRINKOFARECESSION CONSUMERCONFIDENCEATMULTI DECADELOWS ISMISFALLINGFAST GDPISPOISEDTOTURNNEGATIVE Source Haver NAHB ConferenceBoard NFIB MorganStanleyResearch DoL DBGlobalMarketsResearch EARNINGSBEGINNINGTOROLL EARNINGSDOWN18 ONESTIMATESMADE12MONTHSAGO Source Datastream RobertShiller FactsetandMorganStanleyResearch Y Y V SHAPEDRECOVERYUNLIKELY S P500ITMEDIATELECOMSVCS CurrentS P500ConsensusActualandExpectedOperatingEarningsGrowth Weighted Avg Y Y CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08E CY09E Financials 5 10 18 25 11 5 23 37 46 109 ConsumerDiscretionary 0 24 33 11 28 2 9 10 16 41 Media 1 6 34 12 33 28 27 15 11 11 InformationTechnology 28 63 0 46 43 20 12 21 10 17 TelecomServices 6 24 8 0 8 14 17 5 1 10 S P500 17 17 5 18 20 15 16 4 1 23 Y Y ADVERTISINGMARKETSARECRACKING Source TNSU S AdvertisingExpenditureEstimates Y Y RETAIL ECOMMERCEDETERIORATING Source USCensusBureau Y Y MOBILEISNOTIMMUNE Source TNSU S AdvertisingExpenditureEstimates Jun08E Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Dec 95 Dec 96 Dec 97 Dec 98 Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 TECHSPENDINGDEPENDSONECONOMY Y YChangeinS P500Earnings TechnologySpending 1996 2008E 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 S P500EPSGrowth TechSpendingGrowth Source BernsteinStrategyGroup FirstCallDropinearningsinDec07waspartlyduetofinancialservicesindustrywriteoffs PCUNITSSOLD Y Y ENTERPRISEINDICATORS ITspendingisbeingmorescrutinizednowthanatanypointinthe2003through2007timeframe customersareshowingmorecaution EMC JUL2008 It snowclearthatthiseconomicsoftnessiscontinuingintoSeptember INGRAMMICRO SEP2008 Marketdevelopmentsofthepastseveralweekshavebeendramaticandworryingtomanybusinesses Theseconcernstriggeredaverysuddenandunexpecteddropinbusinessactivity SAP OCT2008 Source GartnerPersonalComputerQuarterlyStatisticsWorldwideDatabase 5 08 JPMorganestimatesfor2008 2009 Mil Mil AMAZON COM BUY COM AFinancialPerformance 99 05 BFinancialPerformance 99 05 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 80 60 40 900 800 700 600 40 30 20 10 0 5 000 4 000 20 500 400 10 20 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 0 20 40 300 200 100 0 30 40 50 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Revenue Opex RevenueGrowth EBITMargin Revenue Opex RevenueGrowth EBITMargin Strongbusinessmodel Focusoncorevalueproposition Profitablegrowth Trimfatduringleantimes Mil Mil SALESFORCE COM SIEBEL SFinancialPerformance 00 05 SiebelFinancialPerformance 00 05 350 350 300 2 500 25 20 300 250 2 000 15 250 200 10 200 150 100 150 100 50 0 50 1 500 1 000 500 5 0 5 10 15 50 100 20 0 150 0 25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Revenue Opex RevenueGrowth EBITMargin Revenue Opex RevenueGrowth EBITMargin Tailorsalesmessagetoenvironment Takeadvantageofcompetitors weakness Understandyourtruecustomers ValueofquickROIandlowcost YOURSTREET WHEREDOWEGOFROMHERE DOUGLEONE 38 UPSANDDOWNSALWAYSOCCUR ITISDIFFERENTTHISTIME RECOVERYWILLBELONG TIME CHANGESINFINANCINGENVIRONMENT Venturefirmsbraceforcashcrunch BiginvestorsturnawayfromVCsasthefinancialcrisistakesitstoll ByMichaelV Copeland Ifyouareaventurecapitalistlookingforanewlimitedpartner don tstopinhere Don ttryandsellmeonanewfund andgoodlucktryingwitheveryoneelse Ifyou reasecondorthird tierventurefirmtryingtoraiseanotherfund forgetaboutit Itwillstartfirstinprivateequityfundswheretherewillbeasubstantialmissoncapital calls Thenwe llseeitnextinventurecapital Ifyouarestart upthatisnotcash flowpositiveyouareinatoughspotrightnow Ifyou haven tfiguredoutyourbusinessmodelyetyouareintrouble It sgoingtobehardtogetanotherround Youaren tgoingtogetasecondlifethistime NEWREALITIES 15MRAISE 100MPOSTISGONE SERIESB CWILLBESMALLERRAISES CUSTOMERUPTAKEWILLBESLOWER CUTSAREAMUST NEEDTOBECOMECASHFLOWPOSITIVE INCREASEDCHALLENGES M AsWILLDECREASE PRICESWILLDECREASE ACQUIRINGENTITIESWILLFAVORPROFITABLECOMPANIES IPOsWILLCONTINUETODECREASEANDWILLTAKELONGER SURVIVAL PRESERVECAPITALMUST HAVEPRODUCTESTABLISHEDREVENUEMODELUNDERSTANDINGOFMARKETUPTAKECUSTOM