欧洲光伏太阳能发电技术和市场的现状[27]

European Status of PV Solar ElectricityTechnology and Market,Dr. Winfried HoffmannChairman of the Management Board of SCHOTT Solar GmbHMember of the Board of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSi) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFHSCHOTT Solar GmbH Carl-Zeiss-Strasse 4 63755 Alzenau, GermanyPhone: +49 (0)6023 91-1710 Fax: +49 (0)6023 91-1729 email: /solar,Semicon Japan 2005, Tokyo December 9th, 2005,Preamble,Europe has, like Japan, defined PV solar electricity as one of the most important future key technologies. In order to enable the production industry to develop competitively, market support programs were encouraged in the EU member states. This, however, will only be supported as long as a strong EU based production industry in harmony with the market size can be established. The industry from the most important world economy regions (Japan, Europe, US, SEA) should proactively secure their local market developments in correspondence with the respective local industry capacity increase.,GPSC: Global Solar Electricity Council,History of the initiative: Paris June 2004 Proposal of the action Industry Day, 19th EUPVSECBarcelona June 2005 Meeting with national PV associations from around the GlobeMission: Its mission consists to promote the photovoltaic energy on the global marketplace as a sustainable and clean electricity supply for on-grid and off-grid applications.GPSC is a platform for supporting its members in their common interest for the industry needs and for the market developmentMembers: Worldwide PV players and associations Priority Activities: StatisticsWarranty and Guarantee issuesBoundary conditionsStandardization and certification (modules and systems, waste, recycling and reusing)Competitiveness with other energy sources (externalities, socio-economic issues)International cooperation,2001,1999,1960,1970,AEG Telefunken,Mobil Tyco Solar Energy,1990,MBB,1994,PST,DASA 50%,NUKEM 50%,Mobil Solar Energy,1996,100% TESSAG,100% NUKEM GmbH,100% RWE Solutions AG,ASE GmbH,ASE Americas Inc.,2002,RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH,RWE SCHOTT Solar Inc.,Joint Venture RWE Solutions SCHOTT Glas,RWE Solar GmbH,ASE Americas Inc.,2005,SCHOTT Solar GmbH,1999,2001, RWE Space Solar Power GmbH,More than 300 Satellites with RWE Solar cells,Value Added Chain for PV Systems (c-Si),Gary Homan: Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation, 2nd Solar Silicon Conference, Munich 2005,The Solar Supply Chain,SGS/ASiMI,Silicon,Ingot/Wafers,Cells,Modules,HSC,Crystalox,Q-Cell,Wacker,Tokuyama,MEMC,Others,REC,SCHOTT Solar *,Sharp,Solar World,Examples of Manufacturing Companies (not all inclusive * addition SG PC),Kyocera, BP Solar,Investments in the Value Chain Crystalline Si-Modules,11,110 -170,World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation,12,Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices,Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH,market support programs necessary:,Spot Market Prices in Correlation with PV Electricity Generation in Germany,Source:,History,Forecast,15,Price Experience Curvefor PV Solar Modules,Cost and price decrease of technology driven PV solar electricityminimum - 3 % p.a.realistic- 5 % p.a.maximum - 7 % p.a. Price increase of standard electricity production minimum +1 % p.a.realistic+3 % p.a.maximum + 5 % p.a.,Competitiveness of PV solar electricity,Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GW and bn $ Turnover,installed GWp per year,investements in production machinery bn$,module market volume bn$ p.a. (Assumption: $ = ),Technology Evolution,Feedstock for the PV Industry Karl Hesse, Ewald Schindlbeck, April 11 2005, Page 19,CAGR Poly-Demand 2004 - 2010: + 15 %,SOLAR-GRADE SILICON:SUPPLY CAN NOT FOLLOW DEMAND.,Moduleproduction (MW) and Polysilicon Production (tons),tons,MW,3,1 GW,Development of Annual Silicon Consumption,Market data Europe including the 100000 rooftop program / feed-in tariff (EEG) in Germany,Source: IEA PVPS,21,European Market Support Programs,22,Production and Market - Current Situation,Comparison of the Future Market Development in Europe and Japan,Yearly installations mainly Germany,Cumulative installations mainlyGermany,Additional EU-installations e.g. EU-wide feed-in tariff program (not contained in accumulated curve),0,1000,2000,3000,4000,5000,6000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,cumulated installations in MWp,0,200,400,600,800,1000,1200,1400,Yearly installations in MWp,must be revised towards 5