中国上市公司盈利能力研究中文.doc

Profitability of Chinese listed companies中国上市公司盈利能力1 Profitability study: Significance and key conclusions1.1 Significance of profitability studyProfits are the core of business operations in a modern economy. Drive for profitskeep producers producing and retailers selling. As companies expand, capacityexpansion starts to grow beyond its own means. Fund raising becomes anecessity. This can be achieved through loans, bonds or stocks. The key forbank loans or bond issuance is credit worthiness, or borrowers ability to payback debt. For the stock market, the focus is on present and future profitability, interms of earnings, earnings growth, cash flows, margins and market shares. Inthe direct capital market, capital investment destinations are determined throughcomparing return on equity (ROE). Companies that can deliver earnings andcreate maximum return on investment deserve the top picks.1盈利能力研究：意义和主要结论1.1盈利意义的研究利润是企业经营在现代经济的核心。努力经营保持生产商生产和零售商的销售。随着公司拓展，业务能力产能扩展开始超出其自己的方式成长。筹款成为必然。筹款可以通过贷款，债券或股票。由于银行贷款或发行债券的关键是信用，或借款人的偿还债务的能力。对于股市，重点是对当代和未来的盈利能力，在收入方面，收入增长，现金流量，利润和市场份额。在直接资本市场，资本的投资目标是通过比较确定的净资产收益率（ROE）。公司根据值得投资的首选可以实现利益并且创造最大利润。Unlike the original capitalist or entrepreneur, money at the stock market level hasmany choices of investment. It is much less attached to the original investmentplan and typically less picky about which industry or management (smartinvestors do care about sector and management, but mainly from an investmentperspective, not from a personal one) it will invest in. Money is committed tomake money. The higher and the stronger profits are, the bigger the returns theinvestment will reap.不同于原有的资本主义或企业家，在股票一级市场的投资有很多的选择。它更重视将要投资目标的原始投资计划通常较少挑剔哪个行业或管理（聪明的投资者和管理部门关心的是部门和管理，但主要是从投资的角度来看，不是从个人的），金钱是致力于赚钱。更高，更强的利润，更大的投资会得到回报。While ROE profitability is at the centre of equity markets worldwide, lessEmphasis to it has been given in China. The short life span of Chinas stockexchange, excessive domestic liquidity in the past years and restrictions oncapital flow all appear to have directed attention away from profitability.Management of some listed Chinese companies may also not to be focusing onthis issue.虽然净资产收益率的资产盈利能力是全球股票市场的中心，但它在中国却没有被重视。在中国的证券交易所，在过去几年国内流动性过多的寿命短对资本流动的限制似乎都直接关注远离了盈利。一些上市公司的管理中可能也无法把注意力集中于这个问题。In overseas markets, Chinese companies lack of profitability is probably the mostfrequently cited concern amongst equity investors. Less anxiety is expressed in the domestic A-shares markets, but a rising awareness of earnings and otherfundamentals has been evident recently. As Chinese equity markets develop andmature, we believe that domestic investors will place a stronger emphasis onprofitability and demand higher returns on equity.在海外市场，中国企业的盈利能力不足的问题可能是投资者最经常提到的问题。较少的焦虑情绪表现在国内A股市场，但收入及其他基础意识抬头，最近已明显。随着中国资本市场发展和成熟，我们认为，国内投资者将会把盈利能力作为较强的重点并且要求较高的股权收益。The profitability issue goes beyond capital markets and investors interests. It isalso a central pillar of a countrys sustainable growth path, because profitsrepresent wealth accumulation. Improvement in profitability is a proxy ofproductivity gains. One key lesson to be learnt from the Asian Financial Crisis inthe late 1990s is that economic growth must be associated with improvement inproductivity and profitability. The old Asian model of pursuing high growththrough continued capital and labour inputs delivered impressive results for yearsor even decades, but ultimately failed. There is an abundant amount ofeconomics literature detailing the “Asian model” and its flaws, so we shall notextend the discussion further in this paper.盈利问题超出了资本市场和投资者的利益。这也是一个国家的可持续发展道路的中心支柱，因为利润代表的是财富积累。盈利能力的改进是提高生产力的代理。一个关键教训是在90年代末的亚洲金融危机的教训，经济增长必须与生产力和盈利能力的改善有关。旧的亚洲模式的追求，通过持续的资本，并发表了数年甚至数十年的结果令人印象深刻的劳动投入的高增长，但最终失败。有丰富的经济学文献，详细数额的“亚洲模式”，以及其缺陷，所以我们不会在这个文件的扩展进一步讨论。Nonetheless, it is clear that shifting away from “quantitative expansion” or amarket share driven development pattern to “qualitative expansion” or aproductivity driven development pattern is crucial for Chinas long termdevelopment strategy. This is about the sustainability of on-going rapid economicdevelopment. This is about the long-term prospects of China.然而，很明显，转向远离“数量扩张”或市场份额驱动的发展模式，以“质量扩张”或生产力驱动的发展模式是中国的长远发展战略的关键。这关系着正在进行的经济快速发展的可持续性。这关系着中国的长远前景。Research articles focusing on the profitability and corporate governance ofChinese listed companies from a macro perspective from China or internationalfinancial institutions have been few and far between until recent years. Moreover,we took our study a little further by comparing profitability on a global scale aswell as on an industry basis. To our knowledge, this has never been done before,but is significant in order to understand the strength and weakness of the listedcompanies. We also surveyed institutional investors, domestic and aboard, takingadvantage of the unique combination of this project. Again, we believe this to bea new attempt at such work.关于盈利能力和中国上市公司公司管治聚焦的研究文章列举出的来自中国或国际金融机构宏观上市公司已经寥寥可数，直到近几年。此外，我们将我们的研究扩展到了在全球范围内以及对行业的基础的盈利能力的比较。据我们所知，这项研究是从来没有做过的，但是为了了解上市公司的实力和弱点这么做是很重要的。我们还调查机构投资者，国内及海外，以期利用这一独特的组合来优势项目。同样，我们相信这是一个在这种工作的新尝试。1.2 Basic conclusionsThe key findings and conclusions from this project are listed below.1) The Chinese listed companies in our survey generally recordedrespectable profitability, in comparison to listed companies in US, Europeand Japan. A-shares companies seem to have higher ROE and marginsthan those listed in Hong Kong, though a bad macro environment in HongKong in the past few years probably lowered the profitability of Chinesecompanies, which receive a large source of their revenue flow from theSAR. Most overseas investors do not seem to be aware of the fact that theA-shares have a higher profitability than the Hong Kong listed Chinesecompanies.1.2基本结论这一项目的主要发现和结论现列举如下。1)在我们调查中国上市公司中一般记录还不错的盈利能力，相比美国，欧洲和日本上市公司。A股公司比在香港上市的公司似乎有较高的净资产收益率和利润率，可是在过去几年香港处于一个坏的宏观环境中可能降低了中国公司的盈利能力，这些公司获得了他们从特区的税收流大来源。大多数海外投资者似乎并没有意识到一个事实，即A股比香港上市的中国公司有更高的盈利能力。2) There is a clear trend of declining ROE and net income margins amongstcompanies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen. While average margins inthe mid-1990s are in line with world standards; by the end of the 1990s,they had fallen significantly. This may be related to the deflationaryenvironment at the macro level; this downward momentum in profitability isworrying. Hong Kong listed Chinese companies do not seem to be afflictedwith this problem.3) The falling margins of the Chinese manufacturing and consumer productsectors are particularly alarming, because these of the key sectors ofChinas economy. Profitability of some industries may be tied to the globalcycle, such as petrochemicals and aviation sectors, where pricemovements and demand/supply balances are determined by globalmarkets. Utility companies have the steadiest ROE amongst the surveyedcompanies, and enjoy higher margins and returns than their internationalpeers.2)在上海和深圳上市的公司中有净资产收益率和纯收入利润率下降的一个明显趋势。而在90年代中期的平均利润率与世界标准相一致;由90年代末，他们已经大幅度下跌。这可能与在宏观层面的通货紧缩环境有关，这种利润下降的势头令人担忧。香港上市的中国公司似乎并没有被这个问题困扰。3) 对中国制造业和消费品行业的利润率下降尤其令人震惊，因为这些是中国经济的重点行业。一些行业的盈利能力可能会依赖于全球的周期，如石化，航空等行业，在价格走势和需求/供应平衡方面是由全球市场决定的。公用事业公司在受访公司中有着最稳固的净资产收益率，并比其国际同行享有更高的利润和回报。4) Both ROE and net income margins of the China listed companies tend tofall once the listing process is completed. We divided companies by theiryear of listing. From 1994 to 2000, each and every category saw theirROE peak in either the year immediately before listing or in the listing year.Most classes recorded consecutive falls in profitability since then. There isno clear evidence that the Hong Kong listed Chinese companies follow thesame pattern.5) In a poll we conducted amongst overseas and domestic institutionalinvestors, all the fund mangers surveyed marked profitability high on theirpriority list. Most of them also think the margins of Chinese companies areprobably below the world average. While domestic investors areenthusiastic to invest in the Hong Kong market through the QDII scheme,only one third of the surveyed international fund managers indicated theywould invest in the A-shares market once QFII is introduced.4)中国上市公司的净资产收益率和纯收入利润率一旦完成上市过程都会趋于下降。我们将这些公司根据上市年份分开。从1994年到2000年，每一个类别在上市前或上市的那一年立即看到了他们在任何一年净资产收益率峰值。自那时起大多数记录在盈利能力方面连续下降。没有明确的证据表明，香港上市的中国公司遵循相同的模式。5)我们的调查在海外和国内机构投资者中进行，所有被调查的基金经理在他们的名册清单中都被标记为盈利能力高。此外，他们中的大多数认为中国公司的利润率可能低于世界平均水平。而国内投资者热衷于通过QDII计划投资香港市场，只有三分之一的接受调查的国际基金经理表示，一旦QFII引入他们将投资在A股市场。Our basic conclusion from this study is: listed companies, investors and stockexchange authorities all need to place more emphasis on profitability and ROEbecause they are the cornerstones of modern capitalism and capital markets. It isa particularly challenging task, as China is set to liberalise its capital markets inthe next decade. This means both domestic and international capital would havemore options on what, or even whether, to invest in Chinese companies in thefuture. Chinese companies will have to compete against their global peers forcapital. Profitability and return on equity are key valuation tools to attractinvestors. Improving profitability is also crucial for Chinas long-term prospects,as the economy needs to raise productivity.我们从这个研究的基本结论是：上市公司，投资者和证券交易机构都需要更加把重视放在盈利能力和净资产收益率上，因为它们是现代资本主义和资本市场的基石。这是一个特别具有挑战性的任务，因为中国被设置为在未来10年开放其资本市场。这意味着国内和国际资本都将有更多的机会，甚至是否要在未来投资中国的公司。中国的公司将不得不与他们的全球同行为资本而竞争。盈利能力和股本回报率是关键的评估工具，以吸引投资者。提高盈利能力，也是中国的长远前景的至关重要，随着经济的需要，以提高生产力。2 Methodology2.1 Research targets and areasThe universe of our samples cover all component companies in the Shanghai A-shares Index, Shenzhen A-shares Index, Shanghai B-shares Index, Shenzhen B-shares Index, Hang Seng Chinese Enterprises Index and Hang Seng ChineseCorporate Index. Its scope also extends to some non-indexed companies tomake it more statistically meaningful and to capture more accurate trends whenwe conducted research on an industry basis. Still, our emphasis is primarily onindex companies. Our key focus is on return on equity and net income margins ofthe listed Chinese companies.2方法2.1研究对象和领域我们总体样本覆盖了上海A股指数的所有成份股，深圳A股指数，上海B股指数，深圳B股指数，恒生中国企业指数及恒生中国企业指数。它的范围也扩大到一些非索引公司，当我们对一个行业进行基础研究，这样使之更加具统计学意义，能更准确地捕捉到趋势。尽管如此，我们的重点主要是对指数公司。我们的主要焦点是上市公司的净资产收益率及纯收入利润率。In order to make a comparison, we also studied company data from the US, theUK, continental Europe and Japan for profitability in these respective countries.We used data from MSCI component companies. For international comparison,all currency units from the rest of the world have been converted into US dollarsto avoid bias from currency fluctuation. For B-shares, H-shares and the Redchips, currency units were kept in their original HKD and USD forms and A-sharesin RMB form in most of our study. They were converted into USD whenwe attempted to compare them with companies from the rest of the world.We conducted further analysis at industry or sub-sector levels to identify whetherconclusions at the country level would be altered and to see whether thedynamism of specific industries would lead to different interpretations. While theglobal data sets offer a much wider range of industry/sub-sector for analysis, datafrom the Chinese companies are limited. We hence decided to focus on thefollowing key industries/sub-sectors: 1) manufacturing, 2) consumer products, 3)utilities, 4) finance, 5) aviation and 6) chemicals. Further, data are broken downby the year of listing, as we intend to study corporate behavior after listing.为了作比较，我们还研究了公司的盈利数据，这些国家分别来自美国，英国，欧洲大陆和日本。我们使用的数据由摩根士丹利资本国际公司组成。对于国际比较，从世界各地所有货币单位已转换成美元，以避免汇率波动的偏见。在我们研究的大部分中对于B股，H股和红筹股，货币单位保持其原有的港元及美元形式，A股以人民币的形式。当我们试图将他们与来自世界各地的公司进行比较时，他们被转换为美元。我们曾在行业或分部门一级的进一步分析以确定是否在国家一级的结论将被改变，看是否对特定行业的活力，会导致不同的解释。虽然全球数据集提供更广泛的行业/分部门范围进行分析， 来自中国的公司的数据是有限的。我们因此决定把重点放在以下关键行业/分部门：1）制造，2）消费者的产品，3）公用事业，4）财务，5）航空和6）的化学物质。此外，所有数据都由上市一年细分，我们打算研究上市后的企业行为。2.2 Data: Source, qualification and treatmentThe company data we have used stretches from 19952001 in most cases. Nodoubt it would have been highly preferable for us to have a longer time series forstudy, from both a commercial research and a statistical point of view. However,the Chinese stock exchange was not in place until the early 1990s and data inthe early stage tends to be sketchy and in some cases unrepresentative. Toprotect the integrity of the sample data, we decided to use data only after 1995(but in some cases, after 1996).2.2数据：来源，合格性和处理在大多数情况下公司数据我们已经使用横跨19952001年。毫无疑问，那将是非常可取的，我们有一个较长时间序列的研究，无论从商业研究和统计的角度看。然而，中国证券交易所不到位，直到20世纪90年代初，在早期阶段往往是粗略的数据，在某些情况下没有代表性。为了保护该样本数据的完整性，我们决定把1995年后的数据，方可使用（但在某些情况下1996年以后）。All the raw data of the domestically listed companies are collated from publishedannual reports or from Shanghai Wind Information. All the raw data of theoverseas listed companies, including Hong Kong listed Chinese enterprises andChinese corporates, are from Datastream, Factset or Bloomberg based onoriginal company results and annual books.所有的国内上市公司的原始数据是从公布的年度报告或从上海风信息经整理完成的。所有海外上市公司的原始数据，包括香港上市的中国企业和中国商业客户，是从Datastream，FactSet的数据或彭博顷基于原始公司业绩和年度书籍整理的。Members of this project processed the raw data to derive measures andbenchmarks. We take simple average for aggregated data by market, industry orlisted year. The reason we chose simple average over weighted average is wewant to better capture the behavior pattern of sample companies, not just themarket heavy weight. The side-effect of this is, extreme volatility of a fewcompanies could overwhelm the overall results. We took discretion to remove ahandful of companies if volatility becomes excessive. Definitions of each variableare preset across countries and industries to ensure consistency. However,discrepancies in the raw data may arise due to factors such as accountingdifferences or simply, input errors. A few of our numbers seem counter intuitive,but we still decided to include them. Accounting problems (from blue chips in theUS to Chinese companies accused of fraudulent practices) are another issue thatcalls into question the quality of the data. In addition, a small number of thecompanies in our survey have yet to announce 2001 final results, so we used theaverage of the past three years as the dummy value.这一项目的成员处理原始数据来派生措施和基准。我们为汇总数据采取由市场，行业或上市年进行简单平均。我们之所以选择简单平均加权平均是因为我们要更好地捕捉样本公司，而不仅仅是市场重量级的行为模式。这种方法的副作用是，少数公司能压倒极端波动的总体结果。我们决定删除一少部分波动过大的公司。各变量的定义是不同国家和行业的预设，以确保一致性。但是，原始数据的差异由于种种因素可能会出现，诸如会计分歧或根本因素，输入错误。我们的一些数据似乎是直觉，但我们仍决定将其列入。会计问题（从在美国的蓝筹股指责中国的公司欺诈行为）是另一个问题，质疑调用数据的质量。此外，我们调查的少数公司尚未公布2001年最后的结果，所以我们使用了过去3年的虚拟值的平均值。8.1 Profitability and the economyWhy should we pay so much attention to profitability? Because it is the core ofmicro operations. It is the driver behind business activities. It is the foundation ofcapital formation and reproduction. As Paul Krugman points out, the failure of theAsia miracle that eventually led to the Financial Crisis in 1997 was rooted in thenegligence of productivity gains and high returns to investment. Instead, Asiapursued growth and market expansion, fuelled by a continued increase in capital,labour and raw materials. Under this model, growth rates can be impressive buttheir foundations tend to be fragile. When the external environment turns (inAsias case, capital supplies reversed), the whole growth model collapses. Inother words, growth becomes unsustainable.8.1盈利能力和经济我们为什么要付出这么多的关注盈利？因为它是微操作的核心。它是商业活动背后的驱动程序。它是资本形成和再生产的基础。正如保罗克鲁格曼指出，亚洲奇迹的失败，最终导致1997年金融危机归根于生产力的提高和投资高回报的疏忽。相反，亚洲追求增长和市场的扩大，得益于持续增加的资本，劳动力和原材料。在这种模式下，增长率惊人，但他们的基础往往是脆弱的。当外部环境转变(在亚洲的情况下，资本供给扭转)，整体生长模型倒塌。换句话说，增长变得不可持续。From a practical point of view, profitability is also critical for Chinas long-termdevelopment. China has one of the lowest costs for unskilled labour. Its wagerate for manufacturing workers is about one seventh of that in Malaysia andMexico. And the wage rates of Malaysia and Mexico are roughly about oneseventh of that in Japan and the US. China also has one of the most rapidlyexpanding consumer markets in the world. It attracts two thirds of foreign directinvestment that is channeled to developing countries. The combined advantagesin labour cost, market capacity and newly acquired capital/market know-howthrough foreign direct investment are quickly converting China into the globalmanufacturing powerhouse. This is clearly an encouraging trend, boosting thejob market, exports and income levels. This is also conducive in reducing theincome gaps between rural and urban sectors. However, overcapacity seems topersist in many industries. Excessive capacity leads to price wars, which putcompanies profit margins under pressure. Low profitability leaves little capital forR&D, and that undermines Chinese companies brand names. Without branding,products are typically sold at cheaper prices, and the vicious cycle continues.从实际角度来看，盈利能力也为中国的长远发展的至关重要。中国拥有对非熟练劳动力的最低成本之一。它的制造业工人的工资率大约是马来西亚和墨西哥的七分之一。而马来西亚和墨西哥的工资水平大致是日本和美国的约七分之一。中国也有世界上最迅速壮大的消费市场之一。它吸引三分之二的输送到发展中国家的外国直接投资。通过外国直接投资劳动力成本，市场容量和新收购的资本/市场知识合并后的优势，中国迅速转化为全球的制造业基地。这显然是一个令人鼓舞的趋势，刺激就业市场，出口和收入水平。这也有利于缩小城乡收入的差距。但是，产能过剩似乎坚持在许多行业。过度的能力导致价格战，这使公司的利润率处于压力之下。低盈利能力导致了小资本的研发，同时破坏了中国企业的品牌。如果没有品牌，产品售价通常以较便宜的价格，并且恶性循环下去。Foreign investment inflows will not keep growing forever. Chinas demographicsface a major obstacle due to the “one child policy”, as labour supply is projectedto shrink around 2020. Search for new dynamism beyond the simple increase ininputs is an issue of strategic importance. It is related to Chinas long-termprospects and the sustainability of its economic development. Improvingprofitability is at the centre of such a search.外国投资流入也不会继续增长下去。中国的人口面临的一大障碍，由于随着“一孩政策”，劳动力供给预计将在大约2020年萎缩。搜索对于超出了简单的投入增加新的活力是一个具有战略重要性的问题。它关系到中国的长期前景，其经济发展的可持续