冬季超大胞雷雨之诊断与模拟

WintertimeSupercellThunderstormsinaSubtropicalEnvironment DiagnosisandSimulation冬季超大胞雷雨之診斷與模擬 時間 2009年9月22日 星期二 上午10 00 11 00地點 中國科學院大氣物理所 北郊祁家害豁子 陳泰然 學術副校長 臺大講座 大氣科學系終身特聘教授國立臺灣大學 MotivationandPurposeCaseDescriptionEnvironmentalConditionsMesoanalysesofStormEnvironmentModelDescriptionModelResults 1 MotivationThreestormsformedoverFujian Guangding intensifiedintoisolatedsupercells splittedandpropagatedeastwardacrosstheTaiwanStrait madelandfalloverTaiwanandproducedrain hail andpropertydamageinDec 19 2002 Supercellthunderstormsarerareinthesubtropics notreportedinopenliteraturesouthof25oNoverSoutheatAsia westernNorthPacific Northernstormregisteredareflectivityof72dBZ thestrongesteverobservedbyanyradarinTaiwan AcargoplanecrashedwiththelossoftwopilotsnearPenghuIslandslateon19Decemberasitencounteredahailstorm 15minofhailupto2cmindiameter causedpoweroutageandagriculturedamageU S 6M MotivationandPurpose 2 PurposeTounderstandthesynopticandmesoscaleenvironmentthatwerefavorablefortheinitiationandintensificationofsupercellthunderstorms Usingacloudmodel withrealterrain analysisdata andnoinitialthermalperturbationtosimulateanddiagnosestormstructure Kinematics splittingprocess andthevariationinthemesoscaleenvironment FujianLungyenDopplerRadar0 5 basereflectivityfrom1455to2259LST every6min Threestormswereinitiatedabout80kminlandaround1400LSTnearthepeaksoflocalterrainwithaNE SWalignment Eachofthethreestormshadlastedforabout10handpropagatedforover550km 2 CaseDescription Threeprimarystormsandtheirtracks Thestormson19Decemberevolvedintothreeisolatedsupercells whichexhibitedstormsplittingandpropagatedeastwardfor550kmtomakelandfalloverTaiwan Characteristicsofsuper cellularthunderstorms Radar observedfeaturesgavesomeindicationthatthethreeprimarystormswereindeedsupercells RadialvelocitynotavailablefromLungyenradar ReflectivitycontoursfromLungyenandCWBradars 30 40 50dBZ during1455 2300LST Afterformation thethreestormsevolvedintoisolatedsupercellsandeachexperiencedmultiplesplits Theright moverswereusuallystrongerthanleft moversandtraveledeastwardrapidlyatabout18ms 1acrosstheTaiwanStrait Lightningreports 19Dec 2100 2400LST19Dec 3 htotalrainfall mm Observedsevereweatherphenomena Producdswathsofrain hail andpropertydamages Soliddot hail Surfaceanalysis 1200UTC 2000LST 19Dec 3 EnvironmentalConditions 0000UTC 0800LST 19Dec 2002 NortherlyflowprevailedovermuchoftheEastAsiaunderthecontroloftheSiberianhigh ANE SW orientedcoldfrontextendedfromtheJapanareatosouthernTaiwan Theseverethunderstormson19Decemberdevelopedaround1400LSToversouthernFujian easternGuangdong behindthesurfacecoldfrontinapost frontalenvironment 925hPaat0000UTC19Dec 850hPaat0000UTC19Dec As850hPafrontwasfarthernorthof925hPafrontby100 200km thesurface basedpostfrontalcoldairovertheareaofstormdevelopmentwasrathershallowandconfinedtobelow925hPainthemorningof19December2002 700hPaat0000UTC19Dec Strongverticalshear 700hPaLLJnearFujianandTaiwan associatedwiththecoldfrontandinstability AnapproachingULJat200hPaalsoprovidedstrongshearthroughdeeplayers afactorbeneficialtothelongevityofsupercellstorms 200hPaat0000UTC19Dec Shantousoundingat0800LST19Dec FavorableEnvironment Thesupercellsoccurredbehindawintercoldfrontwhichprovidedalargewest southwesterlyverticalwindshearof6 4 10 3s 1at0 3km Weak to moderateinstability CAPE 887Jkg 1 abovetheshallowsurfacecoldair Thesupercellsoccurredovertheshallowcoldairbehindawintercoldfront withalargewest southwesterlyverticalwindshearof6 4 10 3s 1at0 3km Thiscombinedwithweak to moderateinstability CAPE 887Jkg 1 abovetheshallowsurfacecoldairtoyieldafavorableenvironmentforsupercells Summary a b a 0800LST 19Dec b 1100LST 19Dec d d 1700LST 19Dec Priortostorminitiation significantdaytimesolarheatingundercloud freeskiesoccurredoverthemountainslopesovertheareaofstorminitiation Daytimeupslopewindsonbothsidesofthemountainwereobserved 4 MesoanalysesofStormEnvironment GMS 5IRcloudimagery Manualmesoscalesurfaceanalyses Texceeded20 Covermountainswhileinducedupslopewindswereabout3 5ms 1 Threestormsallinitialedclosetothepeaksoflocaltopography b c d SignificantdaytimesolarheatingoccurredoverthemountainslopesalongthecoastofsoutheasternChina leadingtodevelopmentoflocalcirculationandonshore upslopewinds resultinginconvergenceanduplifting QuikSCATOceanicWinds OvertheStrait low levelshearintensifiedduringthedaytimeof19Dec duetocoldairsurge Increaseinlow levelshearproducedconditionsevenmorepronetosupercelldevelopment threestormsbecamemoreisolatedandreachedpeakintensityafter1730LST Summary SignificantdaytimesolarheatingoccurredoverthemountainslopesalongthecoastofsoutheasternChina leadingtodevelopmentoflocalcirculationandonshore upslopewinds resultinginconvergenceanduplifting ThestormsreachedtheirmaximumstrengthovertheStraitwherelow levelshearintensifiedduringthedayduetocoldairsurge 5 ModelDescription TheCReSS CloudResolvingStormSimulator modeldevelopedattheHydrosphericAtmosphericResearchCenterofNU Japan TsubokiandSakakibara2002 2007 Thismodelusedinthisstudy v 2 2 isanonhydrostatic fullycompressible cloud resolvingmodel Thismodelemploysaterrain followingverticalcoordinate Anexplicitbulkcoldrainschemeareusedwithoutanycumulusparameterization Twoexperimentswereperformed SummaryofCReSS modelconfiguration TracksofmajorstormssimulatedbyCReSS Observation 6 ModelResults CReSSsuccessfullyreproducedthethreemajorstormsatthecorrecttimeandlocation butthesouthernstormdecayedtooearlyovertheTaiwanStrait Inbothruns modelstormstravelabout15 20 totheleftoftheactualstorms Comparisonbetweenobservedandmodeledstorms Thetwoexperimentsproducedsimilaroverallresults suggestingthatthe1 5 kmgridspacingissufficientevenforstormdynamics 1 2 3 Vorticitybudgetanalysis Stormc1at3984mat1630LST Thevorticitybudgetanalysisindicatesthatmid levelupdraftrotationarosemainlyfromthetiltingeffect andwasreinforcedbyverticalstretchingatthesupercellstage Verticaladvectiontendstocancelwithstretching Total tendencyismostlypositiveatupdraftcentersandthustendstoenhanceexisting Soliddotsmark3primarystormsat1830LST LetterA Eindicatethelocationsofmodelsoundingused Onlysubtledifferencesexistbetweenobservationsandrun1results ThermodynamicandshearparametersatpointsA Einrun1during1100LST19to0200LST20Dec 2002 Inadditiontothecommoningredientsofsufficientshearandinstability theevolutionofmodelstormsdependsheavilyonthedetailedlow levelverticalstructureofstormenvironment whichvarieshorizontallyandislinkedtotherapidevolutionofsurfacecoldair Summary Betterunderstandthestormstructure kinematics dynamicsandsplittingprocess Betterunderstandthestormevolutioninrelationtothevariationinmesoscaleenvironment 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