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肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅荿蚈肈莄莈螀袁芀莇袂肇膆莆薂衿肂莆蚄肅羈蒅螇袈芆蒄蒆肃膂蒃虿袆膈蒂螁膁肄蒁袃羄莃蒀薃螇艿蒀蚅羃膅蕿螈螅肁薈蒇羁羇薇薀螄芅薆螂罿芁薅袄袂膇薄薄肇肃薄蚆袀莂薃螈肆芈蚂袁袈膄蚁薀肄肀芇蚃袇羆芇袅肂莅芆薅羅芁芅蚇膁膇芄蝿羃肃芃袂螆莁节薁羂芇莁蚄螄膃莁螆羀聿莀薆螃肅 东方钢钩公司财务危机预警分析摘要摘要：伴随市场环境的日益复杂多变,企业的财务危机预警系统也愈来愈受到重视. 如果企业不能卓有成效地规避风险，危机便会在企业内部机体滋生蔓延。而首当其冲的是企业资金运动的中枢财务系统，财务状况的逐步恶化将引发财务危机，当危机扩散到企业无法承受的限度时，全面危机则一触即发。在亚洲金融风暴中，日本、韩国、马来西亚等国的大企业频频覆没，不是没有管理，而是没有对财务风险保持高度的警惕。企业设置良好的财务危机预警系统,利于发现潜在的问题,避免日后财务危机对企业造成的巨大损失.文章从财务危机预警理论的国内外发展史出发，表述了预警系统的功能和研究方法,在此理论基础上,主要运用Z-score模型对公司的财务状况作了分析,并针对此提出了危机对策.【关键字】 财务危机；财务危机预警；Z计分模型AbstractEnterprises are threated by crisis in the fierce market competition now. And the company is paying more attention to the Financial crisis prediction. If a company make a good use of Financial crisis system ,it could escape from suffering loss. If enterprises can not effectively avoid risks, the crisis will spread within the enterprise fabric. And the central of enterprise funds - financial system which is first affected will trigger a financial crisis. when the crisis spread to beyond the enterprise bearable limits, a comprehensive crisis is imminent. During the Asian financial crisis, In Japan, Korea, Malaysia and other countries, many large enterprises frequently were defeated. The reason is that in the company there is not management, but no financial risk to maintain high vigilance. Enterprises with good financial crisis early warning system will identify potential problems and prevent future financial crises causing huge losses for businesses.In this essay, I expounded on the history of the development of the theory of financial crisis early warning and early warning systems function and research methods. In this theoretical foundation. Z-score main models was used to an analysis of the companys financial situation and put forward against this crisis response .Keywords: Financial crisis Financial crisis prediction Model Z-score Model目录摘要1【关键字】1Abstract2目录31 绪论51.1 财务危机的存在及预警的意义51.2 国内外的研究现状71.2.1 国外学者对财务危机预警理论的研究71.2.2 国内学者对财务危机预警理论的研究92 财务危机及其预警的涵义界定112.1 财务危机的涵义112.1.1 国外学者对财务危机的定义112.1.2国内学者对财务危机的定义132.2 财务危机预警的涵义142.2.1 财务危机预警的定义142.2.2 财务危机预警的原则153 财方法务危机预警的方法研究163.1 财务报表分析法163.2 单变量模型173.3 多变量模型17Z分数模型具体判断标准193.4 基于案例的预警方法204 东方钢构公司财务危机预警系统的应用分析204.1 公司简介20该公司的主要产品214.2公司财务危机预警系统得构建234.2.