外文翻译---浅析邮政服务与快递服务的异同.doc

1 SERVICES THE CASE OF POSTAL VERSUS EXPRESS DELIVERY SERVICES Michael G Plummer 1 Introduction In developed countries services continue to constitute by far the largest share of national economies For example in the EU and the United States approximately seventy and eighty percent respectively of the economy falls under the general rubric of services Services have also increased in importance in trade in the year 2000 the share of services in total exports came to approximately 28 percent in the United States and 22 percent in the EU with an average for the entire OECD coming to about 19 percent The same trend is observable in developing countries During the development process it is typical that 1 agriculture falls as a percentage of GDP 2 manufacturing first rises and then falls as the economy matures but 3 services continue to grow throughout the development process As a percentage of trade services exports of developing countries have risen from nine percent in 1980 approximately half the share of developed countries to about eighteen percent in 2000 on a par with that of the developed countries Given the complicated and diverse nature of trade in services liberalization at the global level can be more delicate and in many ways more difficult than trade in goods Services can be high tech or low tech inputs and or final products privately provided or publicly provided and closely related to other areas such as foreign direct investment FDI Many services areas however still include government involvement and state prerogatives in certain areas are recognized by the GATS Moreover trade in goods tends to be separate from FDI though clearly there exist indirect links between trade and FDI In the area of services however trade in services can be intricately linked to FDI in some sectors trade in services is impossible without FDI In this chapter we will focus on the need for services liberalization in the global economy with a focus on developing countries Moreover we will use the process and complications associated with the liberalization of express delivery services as a case study This area is particularly interesting because a it is an industry that has become 2 highly international b it has become an important input to a variety of emerging industries and a key ingredient in the competitiveness of firms and countries c liberalization runs up against various competition policy issues especially since it potentially affects private and public services5 and d it is exactly the type of industry where greater international access created through global agreements can produce major benefits to developed and developing countries alike 2 Services Liberalization and the Stakes for Economic Development A series of multilateral negotiations under the auspices of the GATT WTO have been very successful in bringing down barriers to trade in manufactured goods Developing country tariffs are in general much higher than in the developed world but a large majority of developing countries has liberalized substantially trade in manufactures over the past fifteen years In fact most of the benefits that would accrue to global free trade would go to developing countries according to various computational general equilibrium models that have been used to estimate such effects The developing world is a different story Agriculture continues to play an important role in the economy in general and in trade in particular in the least developed countries and in many middle income countries In order to be successful the Doha Round will have to include at least some agricultural liberalization if the developing countries are going to agree to any accord Still as the development process unfolds manufactures and especially services will become increasingly important As noted above services have been growing rapidly in importance and already constitute eighteen percent of developing country exports An association between rapid real economic growth and rapid growth in services trade does not mean that the latter caused the former Such estimation is much more complicated indeed there exists a chicken and egg simultaneity problem here However regardless of which causes which the development of the services sector is clearly an important part of the development process The case for economic reform and liberalization is just too strong Countries that have sustained economic liberalization have prospered the ones that have not prospered generally do not have outward oriented policies to blame but rather other economic contextual problems It is hard to promote growth let alone long term development in an atmosphere of hyper inflation or civil war China has used economic reform to transform the world s most populous country from a least developed autarkic economy into an outward oriented economic powerhouse 3 Vietnam s reforms over the past fifteen years have cut poverty rates from one half to one fifth of the population However the process of economic liberalization in developing countries has generally left the services sector for last 3 The Case for Separating Postal from Express Delivery Services in GATS Express delivery services constitute an interesting case study in service sector liberalization Their importance in the day to day activities of firms has increased substantially over the past fifteen years as evidenced by rapid growth in the industry Indeed express delivery services have now become an essential infrastructure to doing business for many companies as well as being an increasingly important service for individuals Moreover express delivery services are particularly necessary for multinationals and hence easy access to markets by express delivery providers is important in attracting FDI inflows particularly in developing countries A The General Problem This is where the difficulty lies express delivery services are often considered a competitor to postal service providers which are almost invariably state owned Hence liberalization in this area has been tricky constrained by competing interests from bothdeveloped and developing countries and based on a misunderstanding of the market in which basic postal services are confused with express delivery services we argue below that they are related but distinct It will be argued in this chapter that existing realities emphasize the need to separate express delivery services from postal activities Express delivery services need to be thoroughly differentiated from traditional postal services both because of the clear substantive differences between the two and the defined purview of GATS Failure to do so will lead to mixing apples and oranges to the detriment of member states be they developed or developing countries It could also thwart progress in Doha Agenda negotiations B Current Classifications Express delivery services are currently classified by theWTOServices Classification List W 120 under both postal and courier services The only distinction between postal and courier services is that the former refer to public sector offered services whereas the latter are private Hence it has to do with ownership rather than product which is unusual in the area of international trade This type of classification leads to a great deal of confusion of the issues as well as complications regarding competition policy 4 The US Postal Service is an independent government organization that essentially has a monopoly on delivery of letters and other activities In the United States like other countries the postal service area is dominated by domestic issues rather than international ones But while the United States and EU have much at stake failure to separate clearly USO related from express delivery services would be even more to the disadvantage of developing countries Thus in many ways inclusion of express delivery services liberalization as a separate item from postal services under the Doha Trade Agenda will be more important to developing than to developed countries C Existing Positions Regarding Liberalization As the WTO begins its preparations for the Doha Trade Agenda express delivery services will likely play a greater role than they ever have in the past The industry has been growing rapidly and has become very international even without GATS related liberalization helping to foster it At present the situation does not lend itself to too much optimism as a number of proposals that have been tabled thus far are conservative and will probably do little Thus far there have been a number of proposals tabled in the general area of postal and courier services made by developing MERCOSUR Bolivia and Hong Kong and developed EU US New Zealand economies One approach19 involves eliminating a distinction between postal services and courier services Another approach defines express delivery services specifically as being separate from courier and postal services and having a single heading Under this approach then member states would be able to propose liberalization of express delivery services directly This heading could then become part of a broader range of transportation activities in the globalization of the supply chain management 4 Summary The salient results of this study can be summarized as follows Services in general and trade in services in particular have become increasingly important to developed and developing countries both as final products and as inputs to other productive activities The relationship between services and FDI under mode 3 is extremely strong hence services liberalization is important as a means of attracting FDI which has proven to be a key catalyst in the development process Developing country stakes are therefore particularly high in global services liberalization as efficient services are necessary in order to help these countries compete internationally and attract foreign firms as partners in the development process 5 GATS has taken on great significance in the 21st Century particularly for developing countries and successful liberalization of services under the Doha Trade Agenda will be extremely important in setting the course for the future We have used the express delivery services case as an example of how this process plays out in the complicated political economy of services liberalization We have stressed that it is imperative to separate postal services from express delivery services as they are separate sectors and reform of the latter can actually help promote the former through its complementarity and general enhancement of efficiency It is in the interest of all parties to do this However if a separation is not clearly made progress in the Doha Round is unlikely given political realities and probable misunderstandings 6 浅析邮政服务与快递服务的异同 Michael G Plummer 1 引言 在发达国家 服务业占国民经济的份额很大 例如 在欧盟和美国 经济发展过程 中大约百分之七十 百分之八十都开展了服务专栏 贸易增加了服务的重要性 在 2000 年 大约 28 和 22 的服务来自于欧盟 美国的出口总 占整个经合组织的 19 左右 在发展中国家同样呈现这种趋势 农业占 GDP 的比重下降 制造业首次上升 但随着经 济的日趋成熟又下降 在整个开发过程中 服务业水平不断提高 发展中国家的服务出 口贸易的比例 已从 1980 年的 9 大约是发达国家一半的份额 上升到 2000 年的 18 鉴于贸易的复杂性和多样化的特点 全球贸易自由化更加细腻 服务是提供高科技 或低科技投入的产品 私人或公开提供密切相关的其他产品 如外国直接投资 FDI 然而 很多服务领域 还包括政府的参与 或是某些领域的国家特权由 服务贸易总协定 确认 此外 在货物贸易方面 往往是外国直接投资 显然存在着贸易和外国直接投资 之间不直接的联系 在服务领域 贸易可以直接投资在某些行业 但是服务贸易是不可 能由外国直接投资的 本文将专注于全球经济的贸易自由化 以发展中国家为研究重点 以快递服务自由 化作为研究对象 快递服务领域特别有趣 因为它是 1 一个高度国际化的产业 2 已成 为各种新兴产业 并是企业和国家竞争力的关键因素 3 自由化的特点有可能影响私营部 门和公共服务行业 4 这种行业类型 可以通过全球协议可以对发达国家和发展中国家产 生重大的影响 创造更大的国际接入点 2 服务贸易自由化与经济发展的关系 一系列关贸总协定在世贸组织的主持下 各国的多边谈判已经非常成功 从而降低 了制成品的贸易壁垒 在一般情况下 发展中国家的关税比发达国家高得多 但绝大多 数的发展中国家在过去十五年开始大幅减少制成品贸易 事实上 全球自由贸易会给发 展中国家带来更大的利益 根据各种计算和一般均衡模型已可以估算出这种影响 发展中国家的农业在一般贸易中继续发挥着重要的作用 特别是在最不发达国家和 7 许多中等收入国家中 为了要取得农业的进步 发展中国家要同意任何协议 多哈回合 谈判有至少包括一项农业自由化的政策 不过 随着发展进程的不断深入 生产和服务 将变得越来越重要 如上所述 服务的重要性已容易提升 并已构成对发展中国家出口 份额的 18 经济的快速增长和服务贸易的快速增长之间的存在着一定的关联 却并不 意味着后者导致前者 事实上 这种估计比较复杂 存在着鸡和蛋的同时性问题 然而 无论其中原因是什么 服务业已经成为发展过程中的重要组成部分 经济改革和贸易自由化已逐步深入 国家存在可持续的经济繁荣 一些没有繁荣的 国家由于缺乏外向型经济政策的支持 无法取得经济上的繁荣 更不用说加产生恶性通 货膨胀或内战的风气 若把世界上人口最多的国家打造成一个外向型的经济强国 从最 不发达的自给自足的国家 转为一个外向型的经济强国是存在很大难度的 越南改革使 贫困率总人口的从二分之一缩减到五分之一 经历了漫长的 15 年 可见经济改革是不能 一蹴而就的 发展中国家的经济自由化发展到最后 一般留下的是服务业 3 邮政服务与快递服务的不同 快递服务的自由化 成为文章的主要研究对象 邮政服务与快递服务在公司日常活 动中的重要性已大幅增加 在过去的十五年中 见证了行业的快速增长 事实上 快递 服务已成为一个重要的 基础设施 许多公司的业务已经为个人提供日益重要的服务 此 外 由于容易获得通过快递供应商的市场 特别是在发展中国家 并且能吸引外国直接 投资的流入 故此快递服务对跨国公司