nicholson微观经济理论（答案+ppt+习题库）-10-03-033593-0

ECONOMICMODELSTHISBOOKILLUSTRATESHOWMODELSAREUSEDBYECONOMISTSTOEXPLAINTHEPRICINGOFGOODSANDSERVICESITSGOALISTOPROVIDESTUDENTSWITHASTRONGFOUNDATIONFORTHEIRLATERWORKINBOTHTHEORETICALANDAPPLIEDELDSINECONOMICSTHISRSTCHAPTERISLARGELYPHILOSOPHICALINNATUREITLOOKSATTHEROLEOFMODELINGINSCIENCEANDREVIEWSABITOFTHEHISTORYOFECONOMICS1CHAPTERTHEORETICALMODELSAMODERNECONOMYISAVERYCOMPLICATEDPLACETHOUSANDSOFRMSENGAGEINPRODUCINGMILLIONSOFDIFFERENTGOODSMILLIONSOFINDIVIDUALSWORKINALLSORTSOFOCCUPATIONSANDMAKEDECISIONSABOUTWHICHOFTHESEGOODSTOBUYTAKEPEANUTS,FOREXAMPLETHEYMUSTBEHARVESTEDATTHERIGHTTIMEANDSHIPPEDTOPROCESSORSWHOTURNTHEMINTOPEANUTBUTTER,PEANUTOIL,PEANUTBRITTLE,ANDNUMEROUSOTHERPEANUTDELICACIESTHESEPROCESSORS,INTURN,MUSTMAKECERTAINTHATTHEIRPRODUCTSARRIVEATTHOUSANDSOFRETAILOUTLETSINTHEPROPERQUANTITIESTOMEETDEMANDBECAUSEITWOULDBEIMPOSSIBLETODESCRIBETHEFEATURESOFJUSTTHESEPEANUTMARKETSINCOMPLETEDETAIL,ECONOMISTSHAVECHOSENTOABSTRACTFROMTHECOMPLEXITIESOFTHEREALWORLDANDTODEVELOPRATHERSIMPLEMODELSTHATCAPTURETHE“ESSENTIALS”JUSTASAROADMAPISHELPFULEVENTHOUGHITDOESNOTRECORDEVERYHOUSEOREVERYBLADEOFGRASS,ECONOMICMODELSOF,SAY,THEMARKETFORPEANUTSAREALSOVERYUSEFULEVENTHOUGHTHEYDONOTRECORDEVERYMINUTEFEATUREOFTHEPEANUTECONOMYINTHISBOOKWESHALLBESTUDYINGTHEMOSTWIDELYUSEDECONOMICMODELSWESHALLSEETHAT,EVENTHOUGHTHEYMAKEHEROICABSTRACTIONSFROMTHETRUECOMPLEXITIESOFTHEREALWORLD,THEYNONETHELESSCAPTUREMANYESSENTIALFEATURESTHATARECOMMONTOALLECONOMICACTIVITIESTHEUSEOFMODELSISWIDESPREADINBOTHTHEPHYSICALANDSOCIALSCIENCESINPHYSICS,THENOTIONOFA“PERFECT”VACUUMORAN“IDEAL”GASISANABSTRACTIONTHATPERMITSSCIENTISTSTOSTUDYREALWORLDPHENOMENAINSIMPLIEDSETTINGSINCHEMISTRY,THEIDEAOFANATOMORAMOLECULEISINACTUALITYAVERYSIMPLIEDMODELOFTHESTRUCTUREOFMATTERARCHITECTSUSEMOCKUPMODELSTOPLANBUILDINGSTELEVISIONREPAIRERSREFERTOWIRINGDIAGRAMSTOLOCATEPROBLEMSSOTOO,ECONOMISTSHAVEDEVELOPEDTHEIRMODELSASAIDSTOUNDERSTANDINGECONOMICISSUESTHESEPORTRAYTHEWAYINDIVIDUALSMAKEDECISIONS,THEWAYRMSBEHAVE,ANDTHEWAYINWHICHTHESETWOGROUPSINTERACTTOESTABLISHMARKETSVERICATIONOFECONOMICMODELSOFCOURSE,NOTALLMODELSPROVETOBE“GOOD”FOREXAMPLE,THEEARTHCENTEREDMODELOFPLANETARYMOTIONDEVISEDBYPTOLEMYWASEVENTUALLYDISREGARDEDBECAUSEITPROVEDINCAPABLEOFEXPLAININGACCURATELYHOWTHEPLANETSMOVEAROUNDTHESUNANIMPORTANTPURPOSEOFSCIENTICINVESTIGATIONISTOSORTOUTTHE“BAD”MODELSFROMTHE“GOOD”TWOGENERALMETHODSHAVEBEENUSEDFORVERIFYINGECONOMICMODELS1ADIRECTAPPROACH,WHICHSEEKSTOESTABLISHTHEVALIDITYOFTHEBASICASSUMPTIONSONWHICHAMODELISBASEDAND2ANINDIRECTAPPROACH,WHICHATTEMPTSTOCONRMVALIDITYBYSHOWINGTHATASIMPLIEDMODELCORRECTLYPREDICTSREALWORLDEVENTSTOILLUSTRATETHEBASICDIFFERENCESINTHETWOAPPROACHES,LETSBRIEYEXAMINEAMODELTHATWEWILLUSEEXTENSIVELYINLATERCHAPTERSOFTHISBOOKTHEMODELOFARMTHATSEEKSTOMAXIMIZEPROTSTHEPROTMAXIMIZATIONMODELTHEMODELOFARMSEEKINGTOMAXIMIZEPROTSISOBVIOUSLYASIMPLICATIONOFREALITYITIGNORESTHEPERSONALMOTIVATIONSOFARMSMANAGERSANDDOESNOTCONSIDERPERSONALCONICTSAMONGTHEMITASSUMESTHATPROTSARETHEONLYRELEVANTGOALOF4PART1INTRODUCTIONARMOTHERPOSSIBLEGOALS,SUCHASOBTAININGPOWERORPRESTIGE,ARETREATEDASUNIMPORTANTTHEMODELALSOASSUMESTHATARMHASSUFCIENTINFORMATIONABOUTITSCOSTSANDTHENATUREOFTHEMARKETTOWHICHITSELLSTODISCOVERWHATITSPROTMAXIMIZINGOPTIONSACTUALLYAREMOSTREALWORLDRMS,OFCOURSE,DONOTHAVETHISINFORMATIONREADILYAVAILABLEYET,SUCHSHORTCOMINGSINTHEMODELARENOTNECESSARILYSERIOUSNOMODELCANDESCRIBEREALITYEXACTLYTHEREALQUESTIONISWHETHERTHISSIMPLEMODELHASANYCLAIMTOBEINGAGOODONETESTINGASSUMPTIONSONETESTOFTHEMODELOFAPROTMAXIMIZINGRMINVESTIGATESITSBASICASSUMPTIONDORMSREALLYSEEKMAXIMUMPROTSSOMEECONOMISTSHAVEEXAMINEDTHISQUESTIONBYSENDINGQUESTIONNAIRESTOEXECUTIVESASKINGTHEMTOSPECIFYWHATGOALSTHEYPURSUETHERESULTSOFSUCHSTUDIESHAVEBEENVARIEDBUSINESSPEOPLEOFTENMENTIONGOALSOTHERTHANPROTSORCLAIMTHEYONLYDO“THEBESTTHEYCAN”GIVENTHEIRLIMITEDINFORMATIONONTHEOTHERHAND,MOSTRESPONDENTSALSOMENTIONASTRONG“INTEREST”INPROTSANDEXPRESSTHEVIEWTHATPROTMAXIMIZATIONISANAPPROPRIATEGOALTESTINGTHEPROTMAXIMIZINGMODELBYTESTINGITSASSUMPTIONSHASTHEREFOREPROVIDEDINCONCLUSIVERESULTSTESTINGPREDICTIONSSOMEECONOMISTS,MOSTNOTABLYMILTONFRIEDMAN,DENYTHATAMODELCANBETESTEDBYINQUIRINGINTOTHE“REALITY”OFITSASSUMPTIONS1THEYARGUETHATALLTHEORETICALMODELSAREBASEDON“UNREALISTIC”ASSUMPTIONSTHEVERYNATUREOFTHEORIZINGDEMANDSTHATWEMAKECERTAINABSTRACTIONSTHESEECONOMISTSCONCLUDETHATTHEONLYWAYTODETERMINETHEVALIDITYOFAMODELISTOSEEWHETHERITISCAPABLEOFEXPLAININGANDPREDICTINGREALWORLDEVENTSTHEULTIMATETESTOFANECONOMICMODELCOMESWHENITISCONFRONTEDWITHDATAFROMTHEECONOMYITSELFFRIEDMANPROVIDESANIMPORTANTILLUSTRATIONOFTHATPRINCIPLEHEASKSWHATKINDOFATHEORYONESHOULDUSETOEXPLAINTHESHOTSEXPERTPOOLPLAYERSWILLMAKEHEARGUESTHATTHELAWSOFVELOCITY,MOMENTUM,ANDANGLESFROMTHEORETICALCLASSICALPHYSICSWOULDBEASUITABLEMODELPOOLPLAYERSSHOOTSHOTSASIFTHEYFOLLOWEDTHESELAWSBUTIFWEASKPLAYERSWHETHERTHEYUNDERSTANDTHEPHYSICALPRINCIPLESBEHINDTHEGAMEOFPOOL,MOSTWILLUNDOUBTEDLYANSWERTHATTHEYDONOTNONETHELESS,FRIEDMANARGUES,THEPHYSICALLAWSPROVIDEVERYACCURATEPREDICTIONSANDTHEREFORESHOULDBEACCEPTEDASAPPROPRIATETHEORETICALMODELSOFHOWPOOLISPLAYEDBYEXPERTSATESTOFTHEPROTMAXIMIZATIONMODEL,THEN,WOULDBEPROVIDEDBYPREDICTINGTHEBEHAVIOROFREALWORLDRMSBYASSUMINGTHATTHESERMSBEHAVEASIFTHEYWEREMAXIMIZINGPROTSIFTHESEPREDICTIONSAREREASONABLYINACCORDWITHREALITY,WEMAYACCEPTTHEPROTMAXIMIZATIONHYPOTHESISTHEFACTTHATRMSRESPONDTOQUESTIONNAIRESBYDISCLAIMINGANYPRECISEATTEMPTATPROTMAXIMIZATIONISNOMOREDAMAGINGTOTHEVALIDITYOFTHEBASICHYPOTHESISTHANAREPOOLPLAYERSDISCLAIMERSCHAPTER1ECONOMICMODELS51SEEMFRIEDMAN,ESSAYSINPOSITIVEECONOMICSCHICAGOUNIVERSITYOFCHICAGOPRESS,1953,CHAP1FORANALTERNATIVEVIEWSTRESSINGTHEIMPORTANCEOFUSING“REALISTIC”ASSUMPTIONS,SEEHASIMON,“RATIONALDECISIONMAKINGINBUSINESSORGANIZATIONS,”AMERICANECONOMICREVIEW69,NO4SEPTEMBER1979493513OFKNOWLEDGEOFTHELAWSOFPHYSICSRATHER,THEULTIMATETESTOFEITHERTHEORYISITSABILITYTOPREDICTREALWORLDEVENTSIMPORTANCEOFEMPIRICALANALYSISTHEPRIMARYCONCERNOFTHISBOOKISTHECONSTRUCTIONOFTHEORETICALMODELSBUTTHEULTIMATEGOALOFSUCHMODELSISTOLEARNSOMETHINGABOUTTHEREALWORLDALTHOUGHTHEINCLUSIONOFALENGTHYSETOFAPPLIEDEXAMPLESWOULDNEEDLESSLYEXPANDANALREADYBULKYBOOK,2THEEXTENSIONSINCLUDEDATTHEENDOFMANYCHAPTERSAREINTENDEDTOPROVIDEATRANSITIONBETWEENTHETHEORYPRESENTEDHEREANDTHEWAYSINWHICHTHATTHEORYISACTUALLYAPPLIEDGENERALFEATURESOFECONOMICMODELSTHENUMBEROFECONOMICMODELSINCURRENTUSEIS,OFCOURSE,VERYLARGESPECICASSUMPTIONSUSEDANDTHEDEGREEOFDETAILPROVIDEDVARYGREATLYDEPENDINGONTHEPROBLEMBEINGADDRESSEDTHETYPESOFMODELSEMPLOYEDTOEXPLAINTHEOVERALLLEVELOFECONOMICACTIVITYINTHEUNITEDSTATES,FOREXAMPLE,MUSTBECONSIDERABLYMOREAGGREGATEDANDCOMPLEXTHANTHOSETHATSEEKTOINTERPRETTHEPRICINGOFARIZONASTRAWBERRIESDESPITETHISVARIETY,HOWEVER,PRACTICALLYALLECONOMICMODELSINCORPORATETHREECOMMONELEMENTS1THECETERISPARIBUSOTHERTHINGSTHESAMEASSUMPTION2THESUPPOSITIONTHATECONOMICDECISIONMAKERSSEEKTOOPTIMIZESOMETHINGAND3ACAREFULDISTINCTIONBETWEEN“POSITIVE”AND“NORMATIVE”QUESTIONSBECAUSEWEWILLENCOUNTERTHESEELEMENTSTHROUGHOUTTHISBOOK,ITMAYBEHELPFULATTHEOUTSETTODESCRIBEBRIEYTHEPHILOSOPHYBEHINDEACHOFTHEMTHECETERISPARIBUSASSUMPTIONASISTHECASEINMOSTSCIENCES,MODELSUSEDINECONOMICSATTEMPTTOPORTRAYRELATIVELYSIMPLERELATIONSHIPSAMODELOFTHEMARKETFORWHEAT,FOREXAMPLE,MIGHTSEEKTOEXPLAINWHEATPRICESWITHASMALLNUMBEROFQUANTIABLEVARIABLES,SUCHASWAGESOFFARMWORKERS,RAINFALL,ANDCONSUMERINCOMESTHISPARSIMONYINMODELSPECICATIONPERMITSTHESTUDYOFWHEATPRICINGINASIMPLIEDSETTINGINWHICHITISPOSSIBLETOUNDERSTANDHOWTHESPECICFORCESOPERATEALTHOUGHANYRESEARCHERWILLRECOGNIZETHATMANY“OUTSIDE”FORCESPRESENCEOFWHEATDISEASES,CHANGESINTHEPRICESOFFERTILIZERSOROFTRACTORS,ORSHIFTSINCONSUMERATTITUDESABOUTEATINGBREADAFFECTTHEPRICEOFWHEAT,THESEOTHERFORCESAREHELDCONSTANTINTHECONSTRUCTIONOFTHEMODELITISIMPORTANTTORECOGNIZETHATECONOMISTSARENOTASSUMINGTHATOTHERFACTORSDONOTAFFECTWHEATPRICES,BUTRATHER,SUCHOTHERVARIABLESAREASSUMEDTOBEUNCHANGEDDURINGTHEPERIODOFSTUDYINTHISWAYTHEEFFECTOFONLYAFEWFORCESCANBESTUDIEDINASIMPLIEDSETTINGSUCHCETERISPARIBUSOTHERTHINGSEQUALASSUMPTIONSAREUSEDINALLECONOMICMODELINGUSEOFTHECETERISPARIBUSASSUMPTIONDOESPOSESOMEDIFCULTIESFORTHEEMPIRICALVERICATIONOFECONOMICMODELSFROMREALWORLDDATAINOTHERSCIENCESSUCH6PART1INTRODUCTION2FORANINTERMEDIATELEVELTEXTCONTAININGANEXTENSIVESETOFREALWORLDAPPLICATIONSSEEWNICHOLSON,MICROECONOMICSTHEORYANDITSAPPLICATION,8THEDFORTHWORTHTHEDRYDENPRESS,2000PROBLEMSMAYNOTBESOSEVEREBECAUSEOFTHEABILITYTOCONDUCTCONTROLLEDEXPERIMENTSFOREXAMPLE,APHYSICISTWHOWISHESTOTESTAMODELOFTHEFORCEOFGRAVITYWOULDPROBABLYNOTDOSOBYDROPPINGOBJECTSFROMTHEEMPIRESTATEBUILDINGEXPERIMENTSCONDUCTEDINTHATWAYWOULDBESUBJECTTOTOOMANYEXTRANEOUSFORCESWINDCURRENTS,PARTICLESINTHEAIR,VARIATIONSINTEMPERATURE,ANDSOFORTHTOPERMITAPRECISETESTOFTHETHEORYRATHER,THEPHYSICISTWOULDCONDUCTEXPERIMENTSINALABORATORY,USINGAPARTIALVACUUMINWHICHMOSTOTHERFORCESCOULDBECONTROLLEDORELIMINATEDINTHISWAYTHETHEORYCOULDBEVERIEDINASIMPLESETTING,WITHOUTNEEDINGTOCONSIDERALLTHEOTHERFORCESTHATAFFECTFALLINGBODIESINTHEREALWORLDWITHAFEWNOTABLEEXCEPTIONS,ECONOMISTSHAVENOTBEENABLETOCONDUCTCONTROLLEDEXPERIMENTSTOTESTTHEIRMODELSINSTEAD,ECONOMISTSHAVEBEENFORCEDTORELYONVARIOUSSTATISTICALMETHODSTOCONTROLFOROTHERFORCESWHENTESTINGTHEIRTHEORIESALTHOUGHTHESESTATISTICALMETHODSAREINPRINCIPLEASVALIDASTHECONTROLLEDEXPERIMENTMETHODSUSEDBYOTHERSCIENTISTS,INPRACTICETHEYRAISEANUMBEROFTHORNYISSUESFORTHATREASON,THELIMITATIONSANDPRECISEMEANINGOFTHECETERISPARIBUSASSUMPTIONINECONOMICSARESUBJECTTOSOMEWHATGREATERCONTROVERSYTHANINTHELABORATORYSCIENCESOPTIMIZATIONASSUMPTIONSMANYECONOMICMODELSSTARTFROMTHEASSUMPTIONTHATTHEECONOMICACTORSBEINGSTUDIEDARERATIONALLYPURSUINGSOMEGOALWEBRIEYDISCUSSEDSUCHANASSUMPTIONPREVIOUSLYWHENINVESTIGATINGTHENOTIONOFRMSMAXIMIZINGPROTSOTHEREXAMPLESWEWILLENCOUNTERINTHISBOOKINCLUDECONSUMERSMAXIMIZINGTHEIROWNWELLBEINGUTILITY,RMSMINIMIZINGCOSTS,ANDGOVERNMENTREGULATORSATTEMPTINGTOMAXIMIZEPUBLICWELFAREALTHOUGH,ASWEWILLSHOW,ALLOFTHESEASSUMPTIONSARESOMEWHATCONTROVERSIAL,ALLHAVEWONWIDESPREADACCEPTANCEASGOODSTARTINGPLACESFORDEVELOPINGECONOMICMODELSTHERESEEMTOBETWOREASONSFORTHISACCEPTANCEFIRST,THEOPTIMIZATIONASSUMPTIONSAREVERYUSEFULFORGENERATINGPRECISE,SOLVABLEMODELSAPRIMARYREASONFORTHISISTHATSUCHMODE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WEENTHESETWOCONCEPTSWASILLUSTRATEDBYTHEFAMOUSWATERDIAMONDPARADOXWATER,WHICHOBVIOUSLYHASGREATVALUEINUSE,HASLITTLEVALUEINEXCHANGEITHASALOWPRICEDIAMONDSAREOFLITTLEPRACTICALUSEBUTHAVEAGREATVALUEINEXCHANGETHEPARADOXWITHWHICHEARLYECONOMISTSSTRUGGLEDDERIVESFROMTHEOBSERVATIONTHATSOMEVERY“USEFUL”ITEMSHAVELOWPRICESWHEREASCERTAIN“NONESSENTIAL”ITEMSHAVEHIGHPRICESLABORTHEORYOFEXCHANGEVALUENEITHERSMITHNORRICARDOEVERSATISFACTORILYRESOLVEDTHEWATERDIAMONDPARADOXTHECONCEPTOFVALUEINUSEWASLEFTFORPHILOSOPHERSTODEBATE,WHILEECONOMISTSTURNEDTHEIRATTENTIONTOEXPLAININGTHEDETERMINANTSOFVALUEINEXCHANGETHATIS,TOEXPLAININGRELATIVEPRICESONEOBVIOUSPOSSIBLEEXPLANATIONISTHATEXCHANGEVALUESOFGOODSAREDETERMINEDBYWHATITCOSTSTOPRODUCETHEMCOSTSOFPRODUCTIONAREPRIMARILYINUENCEDBYLABORCOSTSATLEASTTHISWASSOINTHETIMEOFSMITHANDRICARDOANDTHEREFOREITWASASHORTSTEPTOEMBRACEALABORTHEORYOFVALUEFOREXAMPLE,TOPARAPHRASEANEXAMPLEFROMSMITH,IFCATCHINGADEERTAKESTWICETHENUMBEROFLABORHOURSASCATCHINGABEAVER,THENONEDEERSHOULDEXCHANGEFORTWOBEAVERSINOTHERWORDS,THEPRICEOFADEERSHOULDBETWICETHATOFABEAVERSIMILARLY,DIAMONDSARERELATIVELYCOSTLYBECAUSETHEIRPRODUCTIONREQUIRESSUBSTANTIALLABORINPUTTOSTUDENTSWITHEVENAPASSINGKNOWLEDGEOFWHATWENOWCALLTHELAWOFSUPPLYANDDEMAND,SMITHSANDRICARDOSEXPLANATIONMUSTSEEMABITSTRANGEDIDNTTHEYRECOGNIZETHEEFFECTSOFDEMANDONPRICETHEANSWERTOTHISQUESTIONISBOTH“YES”AND“NO”THEYDIDOBSERVEPERIODSOFRAPIDLYRISINGANDRAPIDLYFALLINGPRICESANDATTRIBUTEDSUCHCHANGESTODEMANDSHIFTSHOWEVER,THEYREGARDEDTHESECHANGESASABNORMALITIESTHATPRODUCEDONLYATEMPORARYDIVERGENCEOFMARKETPRICEFROMLABORVALUEBECAUSETHEYHADNOTREALLYSOLVEDTHEPARADOXOFVALUEINUSE,THEYWEREUNWILLINGTOASSIGNDEMANDANYMORETHANATRANSIENTROLEINDETERMININGCHAPTER1ECONOMICMODELS9EXCHANGEVALUERATHER,LONGRUNEXCHANGEVALUESWEREDETERMINEDSOLELYBYLABORCOSTSOFPRODUCTIONTHEMARGINALISTREVOLUTIONBETWEEN1850AND1880,ECONOMISTSBECAMEINCREASINGLYAWARETHATTOCONSTRUCTANADEQUATEALTERNATIVETOTHELABORTHEORYOFVALUE,THEYHADTOCOMETOGRIPSWITHTHEPARADOXOFVALUEINUSEDURINGTHE1870SSEVERALECONOMISTSPROPOSEDTHATITISNOTTHETOTALUSEFULNESSOFACOMMODITYTHATHELPSTODETERMINEITSEXCHANGEVALUE,BUTRATHERTHEUSEFULNESSOFTHELASTUNITCONSUMEDFOREXAMPLE,WATERISCERTAINLYVERYUSEFULITISNECESSARYFORALLLIFEBUT,BECAUSEWATERISRELATIVELYPLENTIFUL,CONSUMINGONEMOREPINTCETERISPARIBUSHASARELATIVELYLOWVALUETOPEOPLETHESE“MARGINALISTS”REDENEDTHECONCEPTOFVALUEINUSEFROMANIDEAOFOVERALLUSEFULNESSTOONEOFMARGINAL,ORINCREMENTAL,USEFULNESSTHEUSEFULNESSOFANADDITIONALUNITOFACOMMODITYTHECONCEPTOFTHEDEMANDFORANINCREMENTALUNITOFOUTPUTWASNOWCONTRASTEDTOSMITHSANDRICARDOSANALYSISOFPRODUCTIONCOSTSTODERIVEACOMPREHENSIVEPICTUREOFPRICEDETERMINATION5MARSHALLIANSUPPLYDEMANDSYNTHESISTHECLEARESTSTATEMENTOFTHESEMARGINALPRINCIPLESWASPRESENTEDBYTHEENGLISHECONOMISTALFREDMARSHALL18421924INHISPRINCIPLESOFECONOMICS,PUBLISHEDIN1890MARSHALLSHOWEDTHATDEMANDANDSUPPLYSIMULTANEOUSLYOPERATETODETERMINEPRICEASMARSHALLNOTED,JUSTASYOUCANNOTTELLWHICHBLADEOFASCISSORSDOESTHECUTTING,SOTOO