股票估值ppt课件

Chapter6 Valuingstocks股票估值 1 Objectives学习目标 Understandthestocktradingreportsinthefinancialpagesofthenewspaper看懂报纸上的金融板块的股票交易信息 了解股票如何发行 Calculatethepresentvalueofastockgivenforecastsoffuturedividendsandfuturestockprice给定预期股息和终值计算股票的现值Usestockvaluationformulastoinfertheexpectedrateofreturnonacommonstock用股票估价公式导出普通股的期望收益率Interpretprice earningsratios说明市盈率 为什么分析人员和企业本身会关注市盈率呢 2 Content主要内容 Stocksandthestockmarket股票与股票市场Bookvalues liquidationvalues andmarketvalues账面价值 清算价值与市场价值Valuingcommonstocks普通股估价Simplifyingthedividenddiscountmodel简化股利贴现模型Growthstocksandincomestocks增长型股票和收益股票 3 7 1股票与股票市场 P 148 Firmsissuesharesofcommonstocktothepublicwhentheyneedtoraisemoney 当公司需要筹集资金时会选择发行股票 Commonstock ownershipsharesinapubliclyheldcorporation普通股 在公司的经营管理和盈利及财产的分配上享有普通权利的股份 普通股的两大特点 有限责任limitedliability剩余追索权residualclaim 4 股票市场 Salesofnewstockbythefirmaresaidtooccurintheprimarymarket Therearetwotypesofprimarymarketissues IPOandseasonedofferings Primarymarket marketforthesaleofnewsecuritiesbycorporations初级市场 公司发行证券的市场Initialpublicoffering IPO fistofferingofstocktothegeneralpublicSeasonedoffering salesofnewsharesbyestablishedfirms 5 Largecompaniesusuallyarrangefortheirstockstobelistedonastockexchange whichallowsinvestorstotradeexistingstocksamongthemselvesSecondarymarket marketinwhichpreviouslyissuedsecuritiesaretradedamonginvestors二级市场 已发行证券通过交易实现流通转让的场所ThetwoprincipalstockmarketsintheU S aretheNewYorkExchange NYSE andNASDAQ 6 Bookvalue networthofthefirmaccordingtothebalancesheet账面价值 资产在资产负债表上的价值 即公司的净资产值 等于总资产与负债之差 参见TABLE7 1 Liquidationvalue netproceedsthatcouldberealizedbysellingthefirm sassetsandpayingoffitscreditors清算价值 全部资产的变现收入清偿全部负债后的余额 7 2市场价值 账面价值与清算价值P151 P152 7 Marketvalueisnotthesameasbookvalueorliquidationvalue Marketvaluetreatsthefirmasagoingconcern 市场价值与账面价值和清算价值不同 它假定企业是持续经营的 1 extraearningpower 企业有产生超额收益的能力 也就是说资产的实际价值可以高于账面价值 2 intangibleassets 无形资产并未计入到资产负债表中 但其价值却体现在股票价格中 3 valueoffutureinvestment 如果投资者认为企业有较好的发展前景 他们则会愿意支付更高的价格去获得股票 8 总结三者的区别 Bookvaluerecordswhatacompanyhaspaidforitsassets lessadeductionfordepreciation Itdoesnotcapturethetruevalueofabusiness 账面价值反映的是公司为购买资产支付的价格减去折旧后的余额 并没有反映企业的真正价值 Liquidationvalueiswhatthecompanycouldnetbysellingitsassetsandrepayingitsdebts Itdoesnotcapturethevalueofasuccessfulgoingconcern 清算价值是指公司全部资产变现收入清偿全部负债后的净值 并没有反映企业的持续经营价值 Marketvalueistheamountthatinvestorsarewillingtopayforthesharesofthefirm Thisdependsontheearningpoweroftoday sassetsandtheexpectedprofitabilityoffutureinvestments市场价值是投资者愿意为购买公司所有股票支付的金额 取决于企业现有资产的盈利能力和企业未来投资机会的预期获利能力 9 7 3valuingcommonstock普通股估价 Dividend periodiccashdistributionfromthefirmtoitsshareholders股息或股利是指公司对股东投资的回报 是股东所有权在分配上的体现 Tips 股利是税后利润的一部分 Dividendyield howmuchdividendincomeyoureceiveforeachdollarthatyouinvestinthestock 股息收益率是指每股股利与股票市价的比率 Price earnings P E multiple ratioofstockpricetoearningspershare市盈率是指每股市价为每股收益的多少倍 10 Today spriceandtomorrow sprice今日市价与明日市价 Thecashpayofftoownersofcommonstockscomesintwoforms 1 cashdividendsand 2 capitalgainsorlosses股东收益 现金股利 资本利得或损失股票的期望收益率 股利收益率 股价增长率 Expectedrateofreturn r DIV1 P1 P0 P0 expecteddividendyield expectedcapitalgain DIV1 P0 P1 P0 P0 11 Pricetoday P0 DIV1 P1 1 r ForBlueSkiesDIV1 3andP1 81 Ifstocksofsimilarriskofferanexpectedreturnofr 12 then12 istheopportunitycostoffundsinvestedinBlueSkies Ateachpointintimeallsecuritiesofthesameriskarepricedtoofferthesameexpectedrateofreturn 原理 等风险等期望收益率的股票价格应是相当的 P0 3 81 1 12 75 75istherightprice checkthis Brainstorming 若股票实际价格为 80 投资者会做出什么决策 若股票实际价格为 70 投资者会做出什么决策 12 Thedividenddiscountmodel股利贴现模型 P 156 Aformulathatrequirestomorrow sstockpricetoexplaintoday sstockpriceisnotgenerallyhelpful运用预期股利贴现值来评估当期股票价格的一种现金流贴现模型 tips 模拟多重现金流的贴现模型 P0 Presentvalueof DIV1 DIV2 DIV3 DIVt SupposewecallourhorizondateH then P0 DIV1 1 r DIV2 1 r 2 DIVH PH 1 r H 13 Inwords thevalueofastockisthepresentvalueofthedividendsitwillpayovertheinvestor shorizonplusthepresentvalueoftheexpectedstockpriceattheendofthathorizon股票的内在价值等于投资期内股利的现值与投资期末预期的股票价格的现值之和 Tips 股票的内在价值不会因为投资期的长短而改变 见example7 2 Ifthehorizonisinfinitelyfaraway thenwecanforgetaboutthefinalhorizonprice如果投资期无现长 就可以在计算中忽略投资期末的股价 因为现值几乎为0 此时股票价格 预期股利的贴现值 这就是股利贴现模型 Stockprice PV allfuturedividendspershare 14 7 4简化的股利贴现模型 零增长股利折现模型稳定增长股利折现模型 15 Thedividenddiscountmodelwithnogrowth零增长股利折现模型 Consideracompanythatpaysoutallitsearningstoitscommonshareholders假设某公司将所有收益都作为股息支付给股东 Suchacompanycouldnotgrowbecauseitcouldnotreinvest由于没有留存收益用来再投资 公司的股价不会上涨 Thecompany sstockwouldofferaperpetualstreamofequalcashpayments公司的股票即会源源不断的支付等额的现金 可视作固定股利的永续年金 那么固定股利的永续年金现值为 P0 DIV1 r Thediscountrateistherateofreturndemandedbyinvestorsinotherstockswiththesamerisk 贴现率是投资者投资于其他等风险水平的股票所要求的收益率 16 Theconstant growthdividenddiscountmodel稳定增长股利折现模型 Supposeforecastdividendsgrowataconstantrateintotheindefinitefuture假设预期股利在未来无限期内以一稳定比率增长Thenweneedtoforecastonlythenextdividendandthedividendgrowthrate则只需要预测下一期的股利以及股利增长率SupposeBlueSkieswillpaya 3dividendin1year Ifthedividendgrowsataconstantrateofg 8 17 Althoughthereisaninfinitenumberofterms eachtermisproportionatelysmallerthantheprecedingoneaslongasthedividendgrowthrategislessthanthediscountrater只要股利增长率g低于贴现率r 那么每个期间的股利现值都会成比例地小于前一期 Becausethepresentvalueoffar distantdividendswillbeeverclosertozero thesumofallthesetermsisfinitedespitethefactthataninfinitenumberofdividendwillbepaid 尽管无限期支付股利 远期股利的现值几乎为0 因此股利的现值之和是有限的 P0 DIV1 r g Constant growthdividenddiscountmodel Tips 假定预期股利不会增长 g 0 则相当于一个简单的永续年金 即零增长股利折现模型 18 Self test7 5 P 162 19 Wecancalculatetheexpectedrateofreturnbyrearrangingtheconstant growthformulaas可与根据固定股利增长贴现模型来计算股票的期望收益率 股票的期望收益率 股利收益率 股价增长率 r DIV1 P0 g dividendyield growthrate expectedrateofreturnofferedbyother equallyriskystocks WearenotsayingthatrisdeterminedbyDIV1org Itisdeterminedbytherateofreturnofferedbyotherequallyriskystocks注意 r不是由股利或者股利增长率决定的 而是由等风险的其他股票所提供的收益率决定的 20 Nonconstantgrowth非稳定增长的股票 ManycompaniesgrowatrapidorirregularratesforseveralyearsbeforefinallysettlingdownSettheinvestmenthorizon yearH atthefutureyearbywhichyouexpectthecompany sgrowthtosettledownCalculatethepresentvalueofdividendsfromnowtothehorizonyearForecastthestockpriceinthatyear anddiscountitalsotopresentvalueThenadduptogetthetotalpresentvalueofdividendsplustheendingstockprice 21 7 5growthstock incomestock Growthstock增长型股票 投资者购买增长型股票主要是为了获得资本利得的收益 他们关心的是盈余的未来增长 而不是下一期的股利收入 Focusonfuturegrowthearningsinsteadofdividends Incomestock收益型股票 投资者购买收益型股票主要是为了获取现金股利 Focusoncashdividends 22 Ratios Payoutratio fractionofearningspaidoutasdividends股利支付率 股利除以普通股净收益Plowbackratio fractionofearningsretainedbythefirm留存收益率 1 股利支付率Sustainablegrowthrate steadyrateatwhichfirmcangrow可持续增长率 不断发新股并保持目前经营效率和财务政策条件下 公司销售所能增长的最大比率 净资产收益率 留存收益率Ifacompanyearnsaconstantreturnonitsequityandplowsbackaconstantproportionofearnings then g sustainablegrowthrate returnonequity plowbackratio 23 Plowingearningsbackintonewinvestmentsmayresultingrowthinearningsanddividendsbutitdoesnotaddtothecurrentstockpriceifthatmoneyisexpectedtoearnonlythereturnthatinve