伊娃管理系统介绍33页.ppt

NewYorkChicagoLosAngelesLondonParisMilanMunichTokyoSaoPauloSingaporeSydneyJohannesburgShanghai,IntroductiontoEVAManagementSystem,Contents,WhatisEVA?ThecalculationofEVATheEVAmanagementsystem,Contents,WhatisEVA?ThecalculationofEVATheEVAmanagementsystem,EVAisEarningsAftertheCostofCapital,Revenues-OperatingCosts-Depreciation-/+Adjustments-Taxes=OperatingIncomeAfterTax(NOPAT)Capitalxc%CapitalCharge=EVA,Objective:ContinuousImprovementinEVA,P/L,B/S,Theintrinsicvalueisthedeterminantofthemarketvalueinefficientcapitalmarket,Intrinsicvalue,Financialmeasures,Operatingmetrics,MVA,Stockprice,EVA,ROI,Capitalturnover,margin,Marketshare,Unitcost,scraprate,deliverytime,CompetitivestrategyBusinessmodelManagementsystemOperatingefficiency,Marketvalue,USasexample,50%,40%,30%,20%,10%,Correlationwithstockprice,EVAROECashFlowEPSRevenue,Asameasureofbusinessintrinsicvalue,EVAcorrelateswithstockpricebetterthanothermeasures,EVAmeasuregivesmoreinsightsintothebusiness,FromEnrons2000AnnualReport(LettertoShareholders):,Enronsperformancein2000wasasuccessbyanymeasureThecompanysnetincomereachedarecordin2000.Enronislaser-focusedonearningspershare,andweexpecttocontinuestrongearningsperformance.,(inmil),NetInc,EPS,EVA,(inmil),Contents,WhatisEVA?ThecalculationofEVATheEVAmanagementsystem,Fromthetraditionalaccountingmodeltotheeconomicmodelofthefirm,SeparatefinancingeffectsfromoperatingperformanceExtendmatchingofcostswithrevenuetoeconomicbasisSeparateoperatingfromnon-operatingEliminatebookkeepingentries/reservesthatdistortcashflowandreduceobjectivitySoastoTobetterreflectvaluecreationTomotivatetherightvalue-creatingbehavior,OptimizingtheEVAMeasure,MaterialityDifferenceinEVAwithorwithoutadjustmentIsitmaterial?SetaruleofthumbandusecommonsenseMotivationAdjustmentmustmotivatemanagerstodotherightthingStartwithdysfunctionalbehaviorsinstandardoperatingproceduresDataAvailabilityCostofcollectinginformationmustbereasonableSimplicityEVAisforoperatingpeoplekeepitsimpleAfullyadjustedEVAistoocomplicatedtouseandcommunicate,TheEVACalculationPrecisionVaries,BasicEVA,TailoredEVA,TrueEVA,DisclosedEVA,CashtoEconomic,Non-operatingItems,Non-recurringEvents,AccrualtoCash,Accountingconservatismtreatsmanyinvestmentsascurrentexpenses(ROtherFinancing),IntheEVAframework,wemustturntheaccountingmodelintoaneconomicmodel,CostofDebt,CostofCapital?%,+,CostofEquity,?%,?%,Thecostofcapitalcomprisesbothdebt&equitycosts,RiskFreeRate,EquityRiskPremium,DebtPremium(Creditspread),ABetavalueisrequiredtodeterminecostofequity,Ingeneral,ahigherbusinessriskimplieshigherbetavalue,hencehighercostofequity,TocalculateBeta,alistofpeersneedtobeidentifiedforClient,Apeercompanyisnotnecessarilyacompetitor,butratheracompanyengagedinprincipallysimilarbusinesssubjecttothesameunderlyingeconomicforces.Theymaybecompetitorsorcompaniesinsimilarindustriesandbusinessenvironments.Peercomparisonsareusedto:DeriveBetasfortherespectivebusinessunitsandthecorporationtofacilitatecostofcapital(COC)calculations.Non-listedcompanies,wholly-ownedsubsidiariesandbusinessunitsdonothavepubliclytradedsharesfromwhichtomeasuretheleveredBetas.Wherepossible,apure-playanalysisofpubliclytradedpeercompaniesisusedtoestimatetheunleveredBeta,orBRI.ThisisthentranslatedintotheleveredBetaforthatcompany,usingthecapitalstructureandthecostofdebt.BenchmarkEVAperformanceandidentifyvaluedrivers.,Contents,WhatisEVA?ThecalculationofEVATheEVAmanagementsystem,StrategyFormation,GoalSetting,Planning&Budgeting,Execution,Evaluation,Motivation,EVA,EVA,EVA,EVA,EVA,MotivationStrategyGoalSettingPlanningExecutionEvaluation&Budgeting,ValueBasedManagement,EVAprovidesacomprehensivevaluemanagementframeworktotranslatestrategyintoaction,FromEVAGoalSettingtoExecution,EPSConsensusEstimatesIndustryDataBenchmarkingInternalforecasts,Simulationsofpasthistory,ClientStrategicGoals,ConsolidatedEVAGrowthGoal,BusinessUnitEVAGrowthGoals,OperatingPlans,CapitalPlans,Results/OutlookReporting,EVAPlans,ReasonablenessCheck,MarketExpectations,InternalForecasts,AccuracyCheck,Goalsettingisnotanissueoftherightnumber,butoneofalignment,ALIGNMENT,Goalsettingandbenchmarking,IntheEVAframework,MarketValuecanbebrokendownintoFutureGrowthValueandCurrentOperationsValue,MVA=PresentValueofCurrentEVA+PresentValueofExpectedImprovementstoCurrentEVA,FuturegrowthvaluerepresentsanexpectationofincreaseinEVA,MarketValue,ExpectedImprovementsinEVA,FutureGrowthValuerepresentsthepremiumonthevalueofcurrentoperations(Capital+EVA/c*).ThepresenceofaFutureGrowthValue,whichequalsPVofallfutureEVAimprovements,signalsthemanagersthatowners/investorsexpectincreasesinEVA.IncreasesinEVAwillalsodriveincreasesinMVA.AsaresultInvestorWealthwillgoupaswell.,Applying“industryaveragegrowthexpectations”toClients1999EVA,weestimateanFGVof$691m,FGV39%,COV61%,1999ClientEVA,1999COV1,069m,FGV?,IfweknowClients1999COVis$1060m(COV=1999capital+1999EVA/WACC)thenwecancalculateFGVbasedontheindustryaverageCOV:FGVratioof69:311999EVAcouldbeconsideredanabnormallygoodyearforClient,soapplyinganaverageEVAfrom97-00(alowerEVA),theFGVforClientwouldcomeoutto$319M,EstimatedFGV(using1999EVA),FGV691m,ConservativeClientsIndustryRatio,1999COV1,069m,CAPITAL526m,EVA/C544m,EstimatedFGV(usingavg.97-00EVA),FGV319m,97-00COV493m,TakingClientsFGVof$691m,weconvertitintoimpliedannualExpectedImprovementsinEVA(EI),2000COV$(18m),FGV$691m,2001,2003,2002,2004,2005.2010,ExpectedImprovement(EI)$26million,MarketValue$673M,AssumingClientweretoachievethisEVAgrowthovera10yearperiod,annualEVAimprovementswouldhavetobe$26millionayear.,FGVEI(for10Years)Aggressive$691m$26mperyearConservative$319m$12mperyear,ToachieveEIs,managementshouldfirstunderstandthecurrentEVAbyfocusingonreturnoncapital,MarginxTurnover=ROCScenarioA20%x0.75=15%ScenarioB5%x3.0=15%,NOPATCapital,ReturnonCapital,Dissectingtherateofreturnbringstolightthetrade-offsbetweenprofitmarginandcapitalefficiency.,=,Acompanycouldachievea15%returnbyeither:,AcompanycanuseROCcurvestounderstandandmapoutitsstrategytoimprovereturns,Clientpeersusefundamentallydifferentbusinessstrategiestocreatevalueintheindustry,TotalOperationExpenseMargin,0%,20%,40%,60%,80%,100%,120%,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,NOPATMargin,-5%,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%,35%,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,VariableExpensesMargin,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,FixedExpensesMargin,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,90%,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,BenchmarkingNOPATmarginsgiveClientasenseofhowitfallsintermsofoperatingefficiency,Note:BaltransandCNFremovedfromVariableandFixedExpensedriversanalysisduetoinsufficientdata,CapitalChargeMargin,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,30%,35%,40%,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,NWCCapitalChargeMargin,0%,1%,2%,3%,4%,5%,6%,7%,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,FixedAssetsChargeMargin,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,OtherCapitalChargeMargin,-2%,0%,2%,4%,6%,8%,10%,12%,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,%ofSales,CapitalbenchmarkingpointstoworkingcapitalandfixedassetsasanopportunityforClienttodriveEVAupwards,SummaryofBenchmarkingstudy,1999DataInThousandsofUSD,Company/Items,Baltrans,EGL,Exped.,Client1999,Client2000,Airborne,Atlas,CNF,Fedex,UPS,Average,BestinClass,Sales,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,100%,Var.Exp/Sales,97%,62%,69%,34%,54%,34%,11%,N/A,14%,8%,17%,8%,FixedExp/Sales,N/A,16%,23%,45%,45%,58%,59%,94%,79%,78%,74%,16%,Selling/Sales,N/A,15%,1%,1%,1%,2%,0%,N/A,0%,0%,1%,0%,-,OperationExpenses/Sales,97%,92%,94%,80%,101%,95%,71%,94%,93%,85%,88%,23%,-,Tax/Sales,0%,3%,1%,1%,0%,2%,12%,2%,5%,4%,5%,0%,+,OtherIncome/Sales,2%,1%,0%,0%,0%,1%,15%,1%,4%,-6%,3%,15%,=,NOPATMargin,5%,5%,5%,20%,-1%,4%,32%,5%,7%,5%,7%,NWCCharge/Sales,1%,1%,1%,6%,6%,0%,5%,0%,0%,1%,1%,0%,FixedAssetsCharge/Sales,1%,0%,1%,2%,3%,3%,21%,2%,4%,5%,7%,2%,OtherAssetsCharge/Sales,0%,1%,0%,-1%,3%,1%,10%,2%,5%,0%,4%,0%,-,CapitalCharge/Sales,3%,3%,2%,8%,12%,5%,36%,4%,9%,6%,12%,=,NetMargin,2%,2%,3%,11%,-13%,-1%,-4%,1%,-2%,-1%,LookingatbestinclassMarginandTurnover,wecancharttheEVAofClientunderdifferentscenarios,(B)AchieveBestinClassTurns,(D)AchieveBestinClassROC,(A)AchieveBestinClassNOPATMargin,(C)AlsoBestinClassTurns,History,PeerBenchmark,ClientForecast,Client97-99,BestInClass97-99,Company,Client,Inc.2000-2005,NOPATMargin,15.0%,25.6%,AtlasAir,7.5%,CapitalTurnover,313.6%,505.0%,Exp