2012年新南威尔士大学3MT比赛获奖选手Sumaiya Ahmed的演讲稿件以及简析

2012年新南威尔士大学3MT比赛获奖选手Sumaiya Ahmed的演讲稿件以及简析（见稿件每段段末的汉语说明）The waiting time in the movie industry: Timing decisions for DVD release1. You dont have to be a stand-up comedian or a Sydney bus driver to know that timing is critical. Whether it be Samsung launching a new smart phone or Unilever introducing a new shampoo, companies must decide how long to wait before releasing the new version of a product. While a new release may mean new sales, it can also hamper the sales of existing products. 用大家熟悉的话题开篇，逐步引出研究话题。注意这个开篇不仅内容贴近日常生活，语言上也比较口语化。2. My research examines these timing decisions, focusing on the motion picture industry. And in particular I ask how long must studios wait before releasing a DVD after a movie has been launched at the box office. 简洁明快地提出自己的研究内容3. Each year studios make $9 billion at the box office and $24 billion through DVDs. Both these channels are interrelated. Releasing a DVD too early may mean people would defer their purchases at the theater, and just buy the DVD, leading to lower sales of box office. Releasing too late, once the excitement surrounding the film has dissipated, may lead to lower DVD sales. Thus managers need to strike a balance between these two in order to maximize total revenue. 提供具体的研究背景，说明研究的意义。4. These graphs illustrate the random approach to timing decisions currently adopted by studios. Consider Mr and Mrs Smith and Harry Potter, both of which stayed at the box office for over 20 weeks and grossed over $100 million. However, the waiting period for the release of the DVD was 24 weeks for Mr and Mrs Smith, while only 15 weeks for Harry Potter. This suggests a need for a more systematic approach to making timing decisions. 结合一页PPT, 用具体的实例说明目前研究的不足之处。5. Using a modeling approach that allows me to balance between these two channels, I find that on average the waiting period for the release of DVD is 13 weeks, but the optimal time varies across movies, depending on characteristics, such as critical ratings, genre, star power and so on. 简洁明快地提出自己的研究方法与研究结果。6. A key benefit of my model is to inform specific managerial decision-making. Recall that for Mr and Mrs Smith the waiting period for the release of the DVD was 24 weeks. However, my model suggests the optimal time to be four weeks earlier, which would have resulted in an increase in DVD sales by 5.7%. This can mean that for the studios and for many other busine