资金管理与策略测试

图解市场,-1-,古代世界地图,Source:,-2-,当代世界地图,Source:mapresources.om,-3-,未来世界地图,Source:,-4-,约瑟夫熊彼特的三周期嵌套模式,-5-,长期有多长？,-6-,十年经济周期(朱格拉周期),Source:ThomsonDatastream,-7-,道琼斯工业指数:十年周期模式1900-1999,-8-,四年市场周期正好与美国大选周期重叠,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-9-,大选周期：每年的经济表现,-10-,历史上月平均股市回报,S&P/TSXCompositeAverage%gainbymonth(1969-2005),-11-,著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合,-12-,选出真实的市场,Source:Themisbehaviourofmarkets,BernoitMandelbrot,-13-,道琼斯工业指数：1960-1980,-14-,道琼斯工业指数1966-1982:90天美国商业票据200天移动平均值,-15-,人口金字塔模型,-16-,印度人口结构:2000,2025和2050,-17-,婴儿潮一代在美国人口金字塔当中的位置:1960-2020,BabyBoomCohort,BabyBoomEcho,-18-,英国人口结构：2000,2025和2050,标准路线图,19,被现实向下趋势扭曲的标准路线图,20,被现实向上趋势扭曲的标准路线图,21,-22-,标普500指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-23-,富时100指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-24-,日经225指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-25-,德国DAX30指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-26-,希腊Athex综合指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-27-,印度Sensex30指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-28-,中国沪指,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-29-,巴西Bovespa指数,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-30-,黄金价格,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-31-,贸易加权美元,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-32-,欧元/美元,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-33-,英镑/美元,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-34-,美国30年期国债收益,Source:ThomsonDatastream,-35-,免责声明,ThisdocumentisissuedbyCazenoveCapitalManagementLimited(CazenoveCapital),afirmauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialServicesAuthority.Nothinginthisdocumentshouldbedeemedtoconstitutetheprovisionoffinancial,investmentorotherprofessionaladviceinanyway.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance.Valuesmayfallaswellasriseandyoumaynotgetbacktheamountyouinvested.Incomefrominvestmentsmayfluctuate.Changesinratesofexchangemayhaveanadverseeffectonthevalue,priceorincomeofinvestments.Youshouldbeawareoftheadditionalrisksassociatedwithinvestmentinemerginganddevelopingmarkets.UnregulatedcollectiveinvestmentschemesoperatedinoffshorecentresareunlikelytoofferalevelofinvestorprotectionequivalenttotheUK.Suchschemesmaydealinfrequentlyandmaylimitredemptions.Someoftheinvestmentswemaymakeonyourbehalfcouldbeininvestmentcompanieswhichusegearingasastrategyorinvestinotherinvestmentcompanieswhichusegearing,suchasinvestmenttrusts.Thestrategywhichtheissuerofsuchsecuritiesusesorproposestousemayresultinmovementsinthepriceofthesecuritiesbeingmorevolatilethanthemovementsinthepriceofunderlyinginvestments.Theinvestmentmaybesubjecttosuddenandlargefallsinvalueandyoumaygetbacknothingatallifthereisasufficientlylargefall.Wherereferenceismadetostructuredcapitalatriskproductsthesearenormallyrequiredtobeheldforthefulltermtopreservetheprotectedcapitalvalue,thereturnatmaturityoverandabovetheprotectedcapitalvaluedependsontheperformanceofthecorrespondingmarketindexandfees,andthereisanexposuretothecreditworthinessoftheissuerforboththeprotectedcapitalvalueandthereturnoverandabovetheprotectedcapitalvalue.Itispossibletoselltheproductduringtheterm,butifitissoldbeforematuritytheproceedsofthesalemaybelessthantheoriginalsuminvested.Thisdocumentmayincludeforward-lookingstatementsthatarebaseduponourcurrentopinions,expectationsandprojections.Weundertakenoobligationtoupdateorreviseanyforward-lookingstatements.Actualresultscoulddiffermateriallyfromthoseanticipatedintheforward-lookingstatements.,中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。UnofficialtranslationprovidedbyChinaZhuangheInvestmentConsultingC