第三十二章 跨国公司财务

ChapterOutline,32.1Terminology32.2ForeignExchangeMarketsandExchangeRates32.3TheLawofOnePriceandPurchasingPowerParity32.4InterestRatesandExchangeRates:InterestRateParity32.5InternationalCapitalBudgeting32.6InternationalFinancialDecisions32.7ReportingForeignOperations32.8SummaryandConclusions,32.1Terminology,AmericanDepositoryReceipt(ADR):asecurityissuedintheU.S.torepresentsharesofaforeignstock.Crossrate:theexchangeratebetweentwoforeigncurrencies,e.g.theexchangeratebetweenand.Euro():thesinglecurrencyoftheEuropeanMonetaryUnionwhichwasadoptedby11MemberStateson1January1999.Thesememberstatesare:Belgium,Germany,Spain,France,Ireland,Italy,Luxemburg,Finland,Austria,PortugalandtheNetherlands.Eurobonds:bondsdenominatedinaparticularcurrencyandissuedsimultaneouslyinthebondmarketsofseveralcountries.,32.1Terminology,Eurocurrency:moneydepositedinafinancialcenteroutsidethehomecountry.EurodollarsaredollardepositsheldoutsidetheU.S.;EuroyenareyendenominateddepositsheldoutsideJapan.Foreignbonds:bondsissuedinanothernationscapitalmarketbyaforeignborrower.Gilts:BritishandIrishgovernmentsecurities.LIBOR:theLondonInterbankOfferRateistheratemostinternationalbankschargeonanotherforloansofEurodollarsovernightintheLondonmarket.,32.2ForeignExchangeMarketsandExchangeRates,Withoutadoubttheforeignexchangemarketistheworldslargestfinancialmarket.Inthismarketonecountryscurrencyistradedforanothers.Mostofthetradingtakesplaceinafewcurrencies.,FOREXMarketParticipants,TheFOREXmarketisatwo-tieredmarket:InterbankMarket(Wholesale)About700banksworldwidestandreadytomakeamarketinForeignexchange.Nonbankdealersaccountforabout20%ofthemarket.ThereareFXbrokerswhomatchbuyandsellordersbutdonotcarryinventoryandFXspecialists.ClientMarket(Retail)Marketparticipantsincludeinternationalbanks,theircustomers,nonbankdealers,FOREXbrokers,andcentralbanks.,CorrespondentBankingRelationships,Largecommercialbanksmaintaindemanddepositaccountswithoneanotherwhichfacilitatestheefficientfunctioningoftheforexmarket.Internationalcommercialbankscommunicatewithoneanotherwith:SWIFT:TheSocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunications.CHIPS:ClearingHouseInterbankPaymentsSystemECHOExchangeClearingHouseLimited,thefirstglobalclearinghouseforsettlinginterbankFOREXtransactions.,SpotRateQuotations,Thespotmarketisthemarketforimmediatedelivery.(Settlementisduewithintwodays.)DirectquotationtheU.S.dollarequivalente.g.“aJapaneseYenisworthaboutapenny”IndirectQuotationthepriceofaU.S.dollarintheforeigncurrencye.g.“youget100yentothedollar”,SpotFXtrading,Intheinterbankmarket,thestandardsizetradeisaboutU.S.$10million.Abanktradingroomisanoisy,activeplace.Thestakesarehigh.The“longterm”isabout10minutes.,CrossRates,SupposethatSDM(0)=.50i.e.$1=2DMinthespotmarketandthatS(0)=100i.e.$1=100WhatmusttheDM/crossratebe?,TriangularArbitrage,$,Supposeweobservethesebankspostingtheseexchangerates.,Firstcalculatetheimpliedcrossratestoseeifanarbitrageexists.,TriangularArbitrage,$,TheimpliedS(/)crossrateisS(/)=80,CreditAgricolehaspostedaquoteofS(/)=85sothereisanarbitrageopportunity.,So,howcanwemakemoney?,TriangularArbitrage,$,Aseasyas123:,1.Sellour$for,2.Sellourfor,3.Sellthosefor$.,TriangularArbitrage,Sell$100,000foratS(0)=1.50receive150,000,Sellour150,000foratS/(0)=85receive12,750,000,Sell12,750,000for$atS(0)=120,receive$106,250,profitperroundtrip=$106,250-$100,000=$6,250,TheForwardMarket,Aforwardcontractisanagreementtobuyorsellanassetinthefutureatpricesagreedupontoday.Ifyouhaveeverhadtoorderanout-of-stocktextbook,thenyouhaveenteredintoaforwardcontract.,ForwardRateQuotations,TheforwardmarketforFOREXinvolvesagreementstobuyandsellforeigncurrenciesinthefutureatpricesagreedupontoday.Bankquotesfor1,3,6,9,and12monthmaturitiesarereadilyavailableforforwardcontracts.Longer-termswapsareavailable.,ForwardRateQuotations,SupposeyouobservethatforJapaneseyen,thespotrateis115.75=$1.00Whilethe180-dayforwardrateis112.80=$1.00Whatsupwiththat?Theforexmarketclearlythinksthattheyenisgoingtobeworthmoreinsixmonths(theyenisexpectedtoappreciate)becauseonedollarwillbuyfeweryen.,LongandShortForwardPositions,Ifyouhaveagreedtosellanything(spotorforward),youare“short”.Ifyouhaveagreedtobuyanything(forwardorspot),youare“long”.Ifyouhaveagreedtosellforexforward,youareshort.Ifyouhaveagreedtobuyforexforward,youarelong.,32.3TheLawofOnePriceandPurchasingPowerParity,Theexchangeratebetweentwocurrenciesshouldequaltheratioofthecountriespricelevels.S(0)=P$PRelativePPPstatesthattherateofchangeinanexchangerateisequaltothedifferencesintheratesofinflation.e=$-IfU.S.inflationis5%andU.K.inflationis8%,thepoundshoulddepreciateby3%.,EvidenceonPPP,PPPprobablydoesntholdpreciselyintherealworldforavarietyofreasons.Haircutscost10timesasmuchinthedevelopedworldasinthedevelopingworld.Film,ontheotherhand,isahighlystandardizedcommoditythatisactivelytradedacrossborders.Shippingcosts,aswellastariffsandquotascanleadtodeviationsfromPPP.PPP-determinedexchangeratesstillprovideavaluablebenchmark.,32.4InterestRatesandExchangeRates:InterestRateParity,IRPisanarbitragecondition.IfIRPdidnothold,thenitwouldbepossibleforanastutetradertomakeunlimitedamountsofmoneyexploitingthearbitrageopportunity.Sincewedonttypicallyobservepersistentarbitrageconditions,wecansafelyassumethatIRPholds.,InterestRateParityDefined,Supposeyouhave$100,000toinvestforoneyear.YoucaneitherInvestintheU.S.ati$.Futurevalue=$100,000(1+ius)Tradeyourdollarsforyenatthespotrate,investinJapanatiandhedgeyourexchangerateriskbysellingthefuturevalueoftheJapaneseinvestmentforward.Futurevalue=$100,000(F/S)(1+i)Sincebothoftheseinvestmentshavethesamerisk,theymusthavethesamefuturevalueotherwiseanarbitragewouldexist.(F/S)(1+i)=(1+ius),InterestRateParityDefined,Formally,(F/S)(1+i)=(1+ius)orifyouprefer,IRPissometimesapproximatedas,IRPandCoveredInterestArbitrage,IfIRPfailedtohold,anarbitragewouldexist.Itseasiesttoseethisintheformofanexample.Considerthefollowingsetofforeignanddomesticinterestratesandspotandforwardexchangerates.,IRPandCoveredInterestArbitrage,Atraderwith$1,000toinvestcouldinvestintheU.S.,inoneyearhisinvestmentwillbeworth$1,071=$1,000(1+i$)=$1,000(1.071)Alternatively,thistradercouldexchange$1,000for800attheprevailingspotrate,(notethat800=$1,000$1.25/)invest800ati=11.56%foroneyeartoachieve892.48.Translate892.48backintodollarsatF(360)=$1.20/,the892.48willbeexactly$1,071.,AccordingtoIRPonlyone360-dayforwardrate,F(360),canexist.ItmustbethecasethatF(360)=$1.20/Why?IfF(360)$1.20/,anastutetradercouldmakemoneywithoneofthefollowingstrategies:,IRP&ExchangeRateDetermination,ArbitrageStrategyI,IfF(360)$1.20/i.Borrow$1,000att=0ati$=7.1%.ii.Exchange$1,000for800attheprevailingspotrate,(notethat800=$1,000$1.25/)invest800at11.56%(i)foroneyeartoachieve892.48iii.Translate892.48backintodollars,ifF(360)$1.20/,892.48willbemorethanenoughtorepayyourdollarobligationof$1,071.,ArbitrageStrategyII,IfF(360)$1.20/i.Borrow800att=0ati=11.56%.ii.Exchange800for$1,000attheprevailingspotrate,invest$1,000at7.1%foroneyeartoachieve$1,071.iii.Translate$1,071backintopounds,ifF(360)$1.20/,$1,071willbemorethanenoughtorepayyourobligationof892.48.,YouareaU.S.importerofBritishwoolensandhavejustorderednextyearsinventory.Paymentof100Misdueinoneyear.,IRPandHedgingCurrencyRisk,IRPimpliesthattherearetwowaysthatyoufixthecashoutflowa)Putyourselfinapositionthatdelivers100Minoneyearalongforwardcontractonthepound.Youwillpay(100M)(1.2/)=$120Mb)Formaforwardmarkethedgeasshownbelow.,IRPandaForwardMarketHedge,Toformaforwardmarkethedge:Borrow$112.05millionintheU.S.(inoneyearyouwillowe$120million).Translate$112.05millionintopoundsatthespotrateS(0)=$1.25/toreceive89.64million.Invest89.64millionintheUKati=11.56%foroneyear.Inoneyearyourinvestmentwillhavegrownto100millionexactlyenoughtopayyoursupplier.,ForwardMarketHedge,Wheredothenumberscomefrom?Weoweoursupplier100millioninoneyearsoweknowthatweneedtohaveaninvestmentwithafuturevalueof100million.Sincei=11.56%weneedtoinvest89.64millionatthestartoftheyear.,Howmanydollarswillittaketoacquire89.64millionatthestartoftheyearifS(0)=$1.25/?,ReasonsforDeviationsfromIRP,TransactionsCostsTheinterestrateavailabletoanarbitrageurforborrowing,ib,mayexceedtheratehecanlendat,il.Theremaybebid-askspreadstoovercome,Fb/SaF/SThus(Fb/Sa)(1+il)(1+ib)0CapitalControlsGovernmentssometimesrestrictimportandexportofmoneythroughtaxesoroutrightbans.,EquilibriumExchangeRateRelationships,$-,IRP,PPP,FE,FRPPP,IFE,FP,Arecipeforinternationaldecisionmakers:1.Estimatefuturecashflowsinforeigncurrency.2.ConverttoU.S.dollarsatthepredictedexchangerate.3.CalculateAPVusingtheU.S.costofcapital.,32.5InternationalCapitalBudgeting,ConsiderthisEuropeaninvestmentopportunity:,InternationalCapitalBudgeting:Example,IsthisagoodinvestmentfromtheperspectiveoftheU.S.shareholders?,P=3%P$=6%S(0)=$.55265,InternationalCapitalBudgeting:Example,CF0=(600)S(0)=(600)($.5526/)=$331.6,$331.6,InternationalCapitalBudgeting:Example,CF1=(200)ES(1)ES(1)canbefoundbyappealingtotheinterestratedifferential:ES(1)=(1.06/1.03)S(0)=(1.06/1.03)($.5526/)=$.5687/soCF1=(200)($.5687/)=$113.7,$331.6,$113.70,InternationalCapitalBudgeting:Example,Similarly,CF2=(1.06)2/(1.03)2S(0)(500)=$292.6CF3=(1.06)3/(1.03)3S(0)(300)=$180.7,$331.6,$113.70,$292.60,$180.70,RiskAdjustmentintheCapitalBudgetingProcess,Clearlyriskandreturnarecorrelated.Politicalriskmayexistalongsideofbusinessrisk,necessitatinganadjustmentinthediscountrate.,32.6InternationalFinancialDecisions,Aninternationalfirmcanfinanceforeignprojectsinthreebasicways:Itcanraisecashinthehomecountryandexportittofinancetheforeignproject.Itcanraisecashbyborrowingintheforeigncountrywheretheprojectislocated.Itcanborrowinathirdcountrywherethecostofdebtislowest.,32.7ReportingForeignOperations,WhenaU.S.multinationalexperiencesfavorableexchangeratemovements,shouldthisbereflectedinthemeasurementofincome?Thisisacontroversialarea.Twoissuesseemtoarise:Whatistheappropriateexchangeratetousefortranslatingeachbalance-sheetaccount?Howshouldtheunrealizedaccountinggainsandlossesfromforeign-currencytranslationbehandled?CurrencyiscurrentlytranslatedundercomplicatedrulessetoutinFASB52.,TheMechanicsofFASBStatement52,FunctionalCurrencyThecurrencythatthebusinessisconductedin.ReportingCurrencyThecurrencyinwhichtheMNCpreparesits