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ENTRY FOR PROFITTRANS-COSMOS INC. CHINA ENTRY STRATEGY PRESENTATION,February 8, 2001,AGENDA,Executive SummaryCall Center BusinessMarket OverviewCC Customer SegmentationIn-house usersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccess business modelPartnering strategyE-Commerce Market OverviewTCI TianjinCurrent Situation AnalysisRecommendations,AGENDA,Executive SummaryCall Center BusinessMarket OverviewCC Customer SegmentationIn-house usersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccess business modelPartnering strategyE-Commerce Market OverviewTCI TianjinCurrent Situation AnalysisRecommendations,CHINA IS BECOMING A HIGHLY DYNAMIC CC MARKET,Chinas call center market took off since 1998 with an annual growth rate over 100%Non-paging market size reached 54,000 seats in 2000However past growth was largely driven by demands from administrative driven sectorOver 60% of the new CC demand comes from four pillar industries: Banking, Post Services, Fixed-line Telecom, and InsuranceDistinctive purchasing behavior identified for these purchasesFuture growth will be propelled by service oriented and outsourcing segmentsService oriented segment expected to be 50% of total CC marketOutsourcing market will grow at least 50% a year for the next few yearsHowever large variance exists for outsourcing segment growthOverall, China CC market is expected to reach over 130,000 seats in 2004 and 340,000 seats in 2010,CC OURSOURCERS ARE EMERGING BUT STILL EXPLORING (I),Currently, CC outsourcing business is brand new in China No more than 30 companies providing merely about 3,200 seats in serviceOver 70-80% supply concentrated in 4 major citiesFuture outsourcing development is highly dependent on current players performance and strategiesPotential customers concerned about quality, confidentiality, information processing ability, HR, and priceGrowth will fluctuate widely according to the industrys ability to satisfy customer concerns and requirements nowIn short term, competition will be minimum due to highly differentiated positions and large number of unexploited potential outsourcing customersIn medium term, paging companies can be powerful and desperate competitors in the low-end outsourcing marketThat might distort the industry profitability and trigger vicious competitionHowever high-end outsourcing market might be intact,Currently, only low-price/standard service vendors are profitableUtilization, and therefore, long-term customers, is the key for profitabilityHowever, high-priced outsourcing solutions not widely accepted by the marketBut in the long-run, we believe high-end services will be valued by customersWe are encouraged by recent positive news on clients long-term commitments to high-end outsourcersWith Chinas pending WTO Entry and continued economic growth, we believe its the directionHigh-end outsourcers can win the game by aggressively establishing long-term client base, and targeting various outsourcing opportunities along the value chainFive successful strategies identified for new customer developmentTelemarketing and value-added information service most likely to be outsourced,CC OURSOURCERS ARE EMERGING BUT STILL EXPLORING (II),TCI SHOULD PARTNER WITH RIGHT LOCAL CC OUTSOURCERS,A partnering strategy is essential for TCI to capture the great opportunities in ChinaTCI lacks a bunch of local capabilities, while time is contingentTCI should target both money making, and money losing tech advanced outsourcers during negotiation process, based on two plausible partnership strategiesMoney making ones: share profits and leverage local strengthMoney losing ones: control and negotiate for a bargain dealConsidering the limited number of candidates in China and TCIs tight schedule, a broader search can strengthen TCIs negotiation positionFive promising outsourcers identified during the interview processMoney making ones: China Motion, 800 Teleservices, and Compaq-StarMoney losing ones: TCY, ITS Shanghai,EC: ONLY SOFTWARE FIRMS AND SIs WORTH PURSUING,Although under booming, China E-Commerce market are experiencing bottlenecksOnline population and revenues grew 10 times in the past 3 yearsHowever, macro-environment and infrastructure are problematic and only few ICP/ISPs are making moneyICP, ISP and technology companies, as a sector, are not worth TCIs pursuitICP: Market is down while most China ICPs are still at their early stage developmentISP: Highly fragmented and regulated, which suffocate both foreign participation and profitabilityTech companies: Superior ones can hardly survive in ChinaHowever, several top ventures in the above sectors are quite interesting, which are identified and illustrated in detail for TCIs further interestICP: 51; S; A; DISP: 263Net; Eastnet,TCI-TJ: RSTRUCTURING AND BUILDING STRATEGIC ALLIANCES,TCI-TJ experienced difficulties due to both promotion and management issuesThough improving, the firm is intrinsically uncompetitive in China marketIt should restructure for better performanceRedefine corporate missions and strategiesRestructure project arrangement, reporting, measurement and incentive systemsRefocus its sales on Japanese companies in China and in Japan and find strategic alliance for TCIs China expansionTCI should only partner with prestigious local software company or system integratorsWiseway screened all the potential candidates lists and funneled down 5 most promising companies for TCIs further contactLongshine; Global eForce; eBIS; Modern Computer; Huateng Software,AGENDA,Executive SummaryCall Center BusinessMarket OverviewCC Customer SegmentationIn-house usersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccess business modelPartnering strategyE-Commerce Market OverviewTCI TianjinCurrent Situation AnalysisRecommendations,CC MERELY A BUSINESS PRACTICE BEFORE 1997,High telecom charge,Low phone penetration,Weak service attitude,Widespread industry monopoly,Commercial CC less than 10,000 seats in 1997(2),Phone call charge(cents per minute),China,US,Phone penetration (%),# of phones(1)(million),1997,82,53,99,229,Automotive Example: Expert Survey1997,Price,Competition focus (%),(1) Fixed line + mobile (2) Excluding about 50,000 seats in paging companySource: World Development Report 1999/2000; China Auto Market 1997; Jarding Fleming Research; interviews,Quality,Service,Style,National monopolyBankingTelecomInsuranceUtilitity,Regional protectedSteelAutoPetrochemicalTobacco.,Monopolized industry estimated 55% of industrial output,Higher telecom penetration,COMMERCIAL CC TOOK OFF SINCE 1998Especially in Non-Paging Service Sector,Penetration (%),Year,CAGR,Fixed lineMobile,37%83%,Non-paging CC seats (000),Year,CAGR = 129%,Intensified competition,Most industries capacity over productionDeclining retail prices,Year,GDP indexRetail price index,Index,Growing awareness of technology,Internet users (mio),E-Commerce revenue (US$M),Gradually reduced telecom fee,Source: Jarding Fleming Research; China Statistics Yearbook; interviews; OECD; China Telecom,Long distance (RMB/min),(1.2),(0.8),(1.0),(0.7),CC INDUSTRY WILL REACH 330-370 K SEATS IN 2010,Illustration,Identify major driving factors to CC adoption-market competition and service awareness-telecom charges and phone penetrationQuantify relationships between drivers and CC adoptionhere we used US benchmarkProject CC development by forecasting development of driversProject CC penetration in major users industries-banking, telecom, insurance Add up numbers of each industry to give a CC market overviewInterview industry experts or knowledgeable industry practitioners for their opinion of CC market growth-system integrators and experts,2004 projection(1)(000 seats),158132145,2010 projection(1)(000 seats),368337N.A.,Driving factor analysis,Bottom-up analysis,Experts opinions,(1) Without paging company,TOP-DOWN APPROACH REVEALS A PROMISING END GAME,Phone line per 1000 people,CC agents per 1000 people,US benchmark,Y = 0.00146X + 4.79,Deflated telecom fee index,Phone line per 1000 people,China phone line,Year,Non-paging CC seats(000),Source: US Telephone Statistics; Datamonitor; MII data; China Statistics Yearbook,1998,99,2000,01,04,10,REDUCING TELECOM CHARGES WILL BOOST FIXED-LINE ADOPTION,Backup,Competition pushes further telecom reduction,Most alternatives at least 50% cheaperIP, internet phone call, “call back” services Ministry determined to further reduce telecom charges“Current telecom charge still does not reach its optimum stage yet”-Minister of MII,Telecom reduction projection,Phone penetration per 1000,Deflated price index(1),Phone line per 1000 people,Year,(1) Price deflated by GDP indexSource: China Telecom Charges Policy Book; BCG analysis,TELECOM IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CC USER NOWBottom-up Analysis,Industry,TelecomMobileBankingInsurancePost serviceManufacturingComputerAirlineSecurityCourierHome applianceTV sellingOthersOverall,Projected seats,CAGR,200025,0007,6674,5452,0001,6001,5018005942572402403006,67551,419,200435,71422,85711,1003,7606,0007,5195,2504,1004,1581,0002,4601,00026,669131,588,201041,66750,00047,0009,85020,83325,18414,0009,60032,6003,3338,8002,00071,965336,832,2000-049%31 %25 %17 %39 %50 %60 %62 %101 %43 %79 %35 %41 %26 %,2004-103%14 %27 %17 %23 %22 %18 %15 %41 %22 %24 %12 %18 %17 %,Source: interviews; online research; experts opinions; BCG analysis,EXPERT OPINIONS REVEAL A MARKET OF 145,000 IN 2004,“Fast development is expected to continue in the next five years. I believe that call centers seats will grow at 30% a year for the next five years (which means 145,000 in 2004)”Director, CTI Forum“Compared to 1999, in 2000 call center seats increased by 142%, or 16,000 seats”China Computer News“In the next three years, we project that call center seats will double. Its our conservative estimate.”Manager of Business Development Dept, Huawei,Source: BCG interviews,AGENDA,Executive SummaryCall Center BusinessMarket OverviewCC Customer SegmentationIn-house usersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccess business modelPartnering strategyE-Commerce Market OverviewTCI TianjinCurrent Situation AnalysisRecommendations,CHINA CC USER BASE VERY DIFFERENT FROM U.S.,Selected industry explanation,TelecomChina telecom call center investment is still quite government driven. To promote “189” service line, MII demand call center at each city/county levelManufacturingManufacturing CC usage still not widely adopted yet. Most state-owned companies are unwilling and unable to invest in serviceRemote shoppingAlthough remote shopping is the biggest CC user in the US, its merely the case here because of inconvenient payment, credit and delivery system. Also, shopping convenience in metropolitan area and general poor consumption power make remote shopping economically unsound,OthersOutsourcing,SecurityTV sellingNews & mediaAirlineComputer/Tech,ManufacturingPost service,InsuranceBankingMobileFixed-line Telecom,China,US,OthersOutsourcingTransportHealthcareUtilitiesRemote shoppingSecurities,AirlineTechnologyManufacturing,InsuranceBankingTelecom,Our 1.5 months interviews have well covered the above industries,Source: Datamonitor; Interviews; online research; expert opinions; BCG analysis,CC MARKET ROUGHLY SEGMENTED INTO FOUR CATEGORIESAccording to Area of CC Usage, and Willingness to Outsource,Selected industry examples,Willingness to outsource,High,Low,Service-oriented,Outsourcing,Generic service,Admin-driven,Securities,Home appliance,Computer/technology,Courier service,Publication,TV selling,Messaging,Travel,Simple order taking,Paging,Telecom,Insurance,Bank,Post service,Community service,Utility,Core area,Non-core area,Area of CC usage,THREE CRITERIA TO DISTINGUISH CORE AND NON-CORE AREA,Industry,Core Area,SecuritiesCourier serviceComputer/technology,“Grey Area”,Home applianceBankingInsurancePublicationTelecomTraveling,Non-core Area (generic),Paging serviceMessagingTV sellingUtilities,Functionality,Technical assistanceAftersales serviceCustomer complaint settlement,Sourcing/supplier coordination Customer inquiry settlementTelemarketing,Message deliveringSimple order taking,Call Centers impact to overall business-Core: When CC function is critical to the performance of the industryConfidentiality requirement-Core: If the industry/functionality commands strict confidentialityCall Center operational complexity-Core: If operating CC in this industry requires great sophistication,Criteria,Many industries have both core and non-core areas,Backup,MANAGEMENT AND OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AFFECT WILLINGNESS TO OUTSOURCE,Considerations,Ownership structureCompany sizeCompetitionManagement sophistication,Reasons,SOEs consider economics less and “management authority” more-Prefer to build in-house in order to increase management power and assetsCall Center investment is less significant to large companies. Also, their agents needs can justify a sizable in-house operationMonopolized industry tends to be admin-driven, or to disregard CC solution totallyPoorly managed companies/industries see much less value of call centers to their business improvement,SOE(1)LargeMonopolized industryPoorly managed,Privately owned foreign investedSmall-to-mediumMarket-driven, competing industryWell managed,Less willing,More willing,(1) SOE = State-owned enterprise,Backup,AGENDA,Executive SummaryCall Center BusinessMarket OverviewCC Customer SegmentationIn-house usersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccess business modelPartnering strategyE-Commerce Market OverviewTCI TianjinCurrent Situation AnalysisRecommendations,ADMIN-DRIVEN SEGMENT: MOST IMPORTANT FOR NOW,High % in total new CC demand,Driven by “Pillar industries”,Demand surged in a group of Chinas important industries since 1999, aiming to improve service levelBankPost serviceFixed-line telecomInsuranceRequired mostly mid-to-high end call center solutions (Nortel, Lucent, IBM, Huawei)Big, monopolized, profitable corporationsHigh cost of failureBudget approval from aboveOften in conjunction with structural reform,4.9,# of new CC seats (000),Year,Admin-driven,11.2,29.5,Total new demandAdmin-driven,66%,76%,62%,Source: BCG modeling,HOWEVER DEMAND EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE IN THE FUTURE,Underlying Reasons,Admin-driven segment orders come in batchesCall center construction proposal often initiated by government-controlled corporate headquarters, or even ministriesBranch companies required to complete call center construction within similar period of timeAdmin-driven corporations tend to over-investBranch offices incentivized to use up the budget advised by headquarterHowever few admin-driven industries are expected to invest in call centers for the following yearsOnly two industries expected: utility and rail transportation,# of new call center seats (000),Year,Banking example,Source: BCG modeling; interviews, literature research,Admin-driven,UNIQUE THREE-TIER DECISION MAKING PROCESSSystem Integrators Should Put Efforts to All,Top-down initiatives,Advocate improving service standardMake “service facilities” an evaluation criteriaMay suggest call center as an optionDetermine rolling out call centers in the corporation Raise a list of recommended system integratorsPresent the list to branch companiesSet a budget for different branch companiesDecide call center size and sophistication based on corporate budgetNegotiate and select a system integrator mostly suitable to the branchs requirements,SI should pay attention to Ministrys recent service improvement incentive,Ministry,SI should approach promising corporate headquarters in advance to get the name on the list,Corporate headquarter,SI should put most efforts to influence branch companys selection,Provincial/regional branches,Admin-driven,OUTSOURCING ALMOST NEVER AN OPTION FOR ADMIN-DRIVEN COMPANIES,Outsourcing is not considered an option for CC adoption at corporate levelWorried about unforeseeable consequencesMoney saving is not a priority for these big, monopolized SOEsUnable to distinguish different conditions in different geographysome areas dont have satisfactory outsourcersPolitically risky for branch managers to be “creative”If using outsourcers, branch managers have to bear all responsibilitiespotential for failure is considerableCC construction budget would be in vain if not used upwhile outsourcing budget needs to be reported for upper approvalAnd the money is not mineOnly exception is Guangzhou Mobile Companys outsourcing of its “Mobile Secretary” serviceBy nature a paging service: Ideal to be done by a paging company“Mobile Secretary” service is not planned and budgeted from the corporation (China Mobile)Guangzhous business practice is more liberal than rest of China,Admin-driven,SERVICE-ORIENTED SEGMENT: A DRIVER FOR LONG-TERM CC PENETRATION,Rapid growth in the long-term,Widespread adoption expected in market-driven industries,Heated competition will stimulate CC usage in mass-market industriesWTO will not only lift various local protectionism, but also introduce global competitionCurrent over-capacity situation wont alleviate for the next several yearsTherefore, service will be more and more important to create differentiationWith better market environment, consumers are educated to appreciate serviceWTO will introduce world-level service concepts, including call center, to China,Total non-paging CC seats (000),Service-oriented,10,Year,50,337,