美联储 商业银行与货币供应(英文版).ppt

TheFederalReserve,CommercialBanking,andtheSupplyofMoney,RememberthestoryofGoldilocksandthethreebears?,“Papabearsbedwastoohard.Mamabearsbedwastoosoft.butbabybearsbedwasjustright!,Babybearsbedandthesupplyofmoney,Withoutenoughmoney,itbecomesdifficulttoconductcommercetransactionsslowdownandtheeconomyfallsintorecession,Likeanycommodity,excesssupplylowersthevalueofmoney.toomuchmoneycreatesinflation.,Weneedtofindabalancebetweenthetwo,TheConstitutiongrantsthefederalgovernmentthepowertocoinMoney,regulatetheValuethereof.”,TheUSbeganmintingUScoinsshortlyaftertheconstitutionwasratified,HalfCent(Copper),OneCent(Copper),TwoCents(Copper),ThreeCents(Nickel/Copper),Nickel/HalfDime(Silver/Copper),TwentyCents(Silver),QuarterDollar(Silver),Dime(Silver/Copper,OneDollar(Silver),OneDollar(Gold),2Dollar(QuarterEagle),ThreeDollar,FiveDollar(HalfEagle),TenDollar(Eagle),TwentyDollar(DoubleEagle),HalfDollar(Silver),Productionofgoldcoinsceasedin1934.Silvercoinswereminteduntil1964.,CurrentUSCoins,99%Zinc,1%CopperAnnualProduction:6.8M,75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:1.4B,75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:2.5B,75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:2.4B,75%Copper,25%NickelAnnualProduction:5.8M,88%Copper,6%Zinc,3%Magnesium,3%NickelAnnualProduction:5.3M,Papermoneywasinitiallyissuedbycommercialbanksasclaimstotheirdepositsofgoldandsilver(coinsorbars),Assets,Liabilities,$500(Gold),$1,000(Loans),$300(Deposits),$1,000(Notes),$200(Equity),Thesupplyofmoneywasdeterminedbytheindividualbanksprofitmotive-theycreatedloansbyissuingbanknotes,Banknoteswereonlyredeemable(forgold/silver)attheissuingbank,NorthamptonBank,Assets,Liabilities,$1,000(Gold),$10,000(T-Bills),$20,000(USNotes),UnitedStatesnoteswereprinteduntil1963,butwereasmallfractionoftotalmoney1910:onetenth1960:onehundredth,TheUSbeganissuingGreenbacksin1862afterpassingthelegaltenderact.USNoteswerefractionallybackedbygold,butwere“legaltenderforalldebtspublicandprivate,USTreasury,Assets,Liabilities,$1,000(Gold),$1,000(GoldNotes),$10,000(SilverNotes),Goldnoteswereprinteduntil1934.All$1billsintheUSweresilvercertificatesuntil1963andwerestillconvertibletosilveruntil1968,Gold/SilverCertificateswere100%backedbygold/silverreservesattheUSTreasury,butwerenotlegaltender,USTreasury,$10,000(Silver),NationalnoteswereconvertibletoT-BillsatanynationalbankNationalBanknoteswereissueduntil1934,TheNationalBankingActof1863allowedNationallycharteredbankstodistributebanknotes(deemedlegaltender)securedbyUSDebt(bankscouldissuenotesequalto90%oftheirUSdebtholdings),Assets,Liabilities,$50,000(T-Bills),$50,000(Loans),$25,000(Deposits),$45,000(Notes),$30,000(Equity),1stNationalBankofForestCity,TheFederalReservecouldissuenewcurrencybypurchasingUSDebteitherinprivatemarketsordirectlyfromtheTreasuryFederalReservenoteswereconvertibletogolduntil1934(individuals)1971(CentralBanks),TheFederalReservewascreatedin1913toessentiallytakeoverthemoneysupplyroleofnationalbanks.,Assets,Liabilities,$50,000(T-Bills),$60,000(Notes),FederalReserveBank,$10,000(Gold),Denominationsof$500,$1,000,$5,000,and$10,000werenolongerprintedafter1946forfearofGermancounterfeiting,TheLargestdenominationeverprintedwasa$100,000goldcertificate.Itwasnevercirculated,butwasusedforinter-banktransfers,CreditChannelsundertheNational/StateBankingSystem,SmallStatebankswhowereshortoffundswouldborrowfromlargerstatebanks,LargerStatebankswhowereshortoffundswouldborrowfromNationalbanks,Nationalbankswhowereshortoffundswouldborrowfrommoneycenterbanks,Moneycenterbankswerethe“rootsource”ofcredit,CreditChannelsundertheNational/StateBankingSystem,TheFederalReserve,TheFederalReserveSystemwascreatedin1913byWoodrowWilson.Regulatethebankingindustry“LenderofLastResort”RegulatethemoneysupplyProvidebankingservicesforthefederalgovernmentCheckClearing,CreditChannelsundertheFederalReserveSystem,FederalReserve,=FederalFundsMarket,=DiscountWindow,TheFederalReserveSystemDividesthecountryinto12Districtsnumbered1-12fromeasttowest,TheFederalReserveboardisheadquarteredinWashingtonDC.TheBoardConsistsof7“Governors”appointedbythePresidentandconfirmedbytheSenatefor14YearNon-Renewableterms,AlanGreenspan(1992),RogerFerguson(2001),EdwardGramlich(1997),BenBernanke(2003),SusanBies(2001),MarkOlsen(2001),DonaldKohn(2002),TheChairmaniselectedfromtheBoardforarenewable4yearterm,EachdistricthasaFederalReserveBankwithabankpresidentelectedbythebanksboardofdirectorsfor4yearrenewableterms,BoardofDirectors,BankPresident,ClassA(4),ClassB(4),ClassC(4),MemberBanks,LocalBusiness,FederalReserveBoard,TheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)isthepolicymakinggroupoftheFederalReserveSystem.Theymeetapproximately8timesperyear.Policiesaredeterminedbymajorityvote,BoardofGovernors(7),NYFedPresident(1),RegionalFedPresidents(4),Generally,all12bankpresidentsarepresentatthemeeting,butonly5canvote.TheNYFedpresidenthasapermanentvotewhiletheremainingpresidentsvoteonarevolvingbasis.,Moneycanbeanythingthatsatisfies:StoreofValueUnitofaccountMediumofexchangeLotsofthingssatisfytheseproperties,ControllingtheSupplyofMoney,StandardDefinitionsofMoney,MonetaryBase(M0):DirectliabilitiesofthecentralbankCurrencyincirculation+BankReservesM1:Currencyincirculation+TravelersChecks+CheckingaccountsM2:M1+Savingsaccounts+MoneyMarketAccounts+SmallTimeDepositsM3:M2+LargeTimeDeposits+Eurodollars,Oncethosereservesenterthebankingsector,theyareusedasthebasisforcreatingloans.Theseloansmakeuptherestofthemoneysupply.Thefedcantcontrolthis,butcaninfluenceit,MB,M3,M2,M1,TheFederalReservecanperfectlycontrolthemonetarybase(cash+bankreserves),MoneySupplyintheUS(inBillions),MB,M1,M3,M2,Cash,MoneySupplyintheUS,TheReserveRequirementistheleastusedoftheFedspolicytools.ABankisrequiredtokeepaminimumpercentageofitsdepositseitherascashorondepositatthefederalreserve(reservedepositspaynointerest),Assets,Liabilities,Assets,Liabilities,$45,000(T-Bills),$50,000(Deposits),$100,000(Equity),FederalReserve,AcmeNationalBank,$100,000(Loans),$2,500(Cash),$2,500(Reserves),$2,500(Reserves),Acmecurrentlyhas10%ofitsdepositliabilitiesonReserve(Cash+Reserves)/Deposits,ReserveAccountsareliabilitiesoftheFed,SupposeAcmeBankwantedtocreatea$30,000loan.Thisisdonebyestablishingalineofcredit(i.e.creatinganewcheckabledeposit),Assets,Liabilities,$45,000(T-Bills),$50,000(Deposits),$100,000(Equity),AcmeNationalBank,$100,000(Loans),$2,500(Cash),$2,500(Reserves),Acmesreserveratiodropsto6.25%(5/80),$30,000(Loan),$30,000(Deposit),Theloanshowsuponbothsidesofthebalancesheet,ReservesandcasharecomponentsofM0whilethenewlycreatedloansarecomponentsofM1orM2,Assets,Liabilities,$45,000(T-Bills),$50,000(Deposits),$100,000(Equity),AcmeNationalBank,$100,000(Loans),$2,500(Cash),$2,500(Reserves),$30,000(Loan),$30,000(Deposit),MonetaryBaseCashinCirculationBankReserves,M1CashinCirculationCheckingAccounts,M2M1SavingsAccounts,TheReserveRequirementhasnoimpactonthemonetarybase,butitrestrictstheabilityofbankstocreateloansthisinfluencesthebroaderaggregates.,Thediscountwindowwastheprimarypolicytoolofthefederalreservewhenitwasfirstestablishedin1913.Discountwindowloansarecollateralizedbytheassetsofthebank(equaltoaround90%oftheloan),Assets,Liabilities,Assets,Liabilities,$45,000(T-Bills),$80,000(Deposits),$50,000(Equity),FederalReserve,AcmeNationalBank,$130,000(Loans),$2,500(Cash),$2,500(Reserves),$2,500(Reserves),Thisbankwouldliketocreate$70,000loan,butdoesnthavethereservestobackitup,Res.Req.=5%,A$2,500loanfromthediscountwindowwouldraisereservestotherequired5%,$2,500(Reserves),$2,500(Reserves),$2,500(Loan),$2,500(Disc.Loan),DiscountLending,Bypurchasingand/orsellingsecurities,theFedcandirectlycontrolthequantityofnon-borrowedreservesinthebankingsector.,BondDealer,FederalReserve,DealersBuy/SellbondsfromtheFed,TheFeddebits/creditsthereserveaccountofthedealersbank,Mosttransactionsaredonewithrepurchaseagreements(Repos).Thesearepurchases/salesalongwithanagreementtoreversethetransactionatalaterdate,Currently,openmarketoperationsaretheprimarypolicytooloftheFed.TradingtakesplaceinNYC,Assets,Liabilities,Assets,Liabilities,$45,000(T-Bills),$80,000(Deposits),$50,000(Equity),FederalReserve,AcmeNationalBank,$130,000(Loans),$2,500(Cash),$2,500(Reserves),$2,500(Reserves),Res.Req.=5%,AnopenmarketpurchaseincreasesthereservesofthebankingsectorthisraisesM0,$2,500(Reserves),-$2,500(T-Bills),$2,500(Reserves),$2,500(T-Bills),Assets,Liabilities,Assets,Liabilities,$2,000(T-Bills),$1,000B(Equity),FederalReserve,BankingSector,$3,000(Other),$54B(Cash),$46B(Reserves),$700B(Currency),Res.Req.=5%,$2,701(Mortgage),Reserves,$700B(T-Bills),$1B(Loans),$25B(Gold),$20B(Other),$44B(Required),$1B(Excess),$1B(Borrowed),MB=$746B,$800B(Checking),$4,500B(Saving),$1,500B(FedFunds),$1B(Discount),Loans,Loans,M1=$700B+$800B=1,500B,M2=$700B+$800B+$4,500B=$6,000B,M1,MB,=2.01,M2,MB,=8.04,TheMoneymultipliersdescribetherelationshipbetweenachangeinthemonetarybase(controlledbytheFed)andthebroaderaggregates,$ChangeinM1,=mm1*$ChangeinMB,mm=,1+,Cash,Deposits,Cash,Deposits,Reserves,Deposits,+,$ChangeinM2,=mm2*$ChangeinMB,mm2=,1+,Cash,Deposits,Cash,Deposits,Reserves,Deposits,+,M2-M1,Deposits,+,TheFedcaninfluencetotalbankreserves,whichaffectsthemultipliers!,FedPolicyfromstarttofinish.,Staffeconomistsateachfederalreservebankbriefthepresidentoflocal/nationaleconomicconditions,BankPresidents/GovernorspresentpolicyrecommendationstotheFOMCAvoteistaken.Themonetarybaseistobeincreasedby$100M,ThisorderispassedtothetradingdeskinNYC,Tradingdeskcallsbonddealersandasksforbids,FedPolicyfromstarttofinish.,Assets,Liabilities,AcmeNationalBank,+$100M(Reserves),+$100M(Deposits),Thedealerswiththewinningbidsdeliverthebonds.Theirbanksreserveaccountsarecredited,Thebankmustkeepapproximately5%(reserverequirement)ofthenewdepositonr