(12)Unit 6《信息管理与信息系统专业英语》DSS

信息管理与信息系统专业英语Unit6DecisionSupportSystems,DecisionSupportSystems,Inthislesson,wecoverthefollowingarea:VocabularyDifficultandEmphasisDecisiontheoryDecisionmaking,DecisionSupportSystems,词汇Decisionmaker/making/theory/supportsystemGroupDSSMathematics(math)/management/operationresearch/statistics/psychology/philosophy/physics/chemistry/geometry/linearalgebra/highermathematics/discretemathematics/macro-economic/micro-economic/economics/probabilitytheory/geography/biology/historyNormative/prescriptiveMethod/model/methodology,DecisionSupportSystems,词汇HypothesisSoftwarepackage/softwaremodule/softwaremodel(p136)expertsystemOfficeautomationsystemAlgorithm(decisiontree,supportvectormachine,associationrule,clustering,classification,bayesian),DecisionSupportSystems,词汇DistributedcomputingRationaldecisionCost-effective/cost-reductionACMSIGBDPconference(AssociationforComputingMachinery-SpecialInterestGrouponBusinessDataProcessing)AI(artificialintelligence)Model-drivenDSS,DecisionSupportSystems,词汇InformationsystemdesignandoptimizationsystemFirmware/groupware/sharewareVantagepoint/startingpoint/endpointSortoutComputer-aideddecisionsystemPaper/dissertation/thesisSpreadsheet,DecisionSupportSystems,词汇RelationaldatabaseproductsProcessdurationSubroutineRealestateindustryTradeassociation/associationruleTextbookknowledge(p139)FuzzylogicCognitiveprocess,DecisionSupportSystems-DifficultandEmphasis(难点与重点),TodayitisstillpossibletoreconstructthehistoryofDecisionSupportSystemsfromfirst-handaccounts*andunpublishedmaterialsaswellaspublishedarticles.Accounts=awrittenorspokenreportdescription.对事物报道描述。当今，依据对决策支持系统的一手的报道和未发行及已发行的资料和文章的描述，仍能够勾现出其历史全貌。,DecisionSupportSystems-DifficultandEmphasis(难点与重点),Thishypertextpaperisastartingpointindocumentingtheoriginsofthevarioustechnologythreads*thatareconverging(集中)atthestartofthe21stCenturytoprovideintegratedsupportformanagersworkingalone,inteamsandinorganizationhierarchiestomanageorganizationsandmakemorerationaldecisions.(p134),DecisionSupportSystems-DifficultandEmphasis(难点与重点),ADSSisaninteractive,computer-basedinformationsystemthatprovidesaflexibletoolforanalysisandhelpsmanagersfocusonthefuture（p134）一个决策支持系统是一个互动的，基于计算机的信息系统，它提供了灵活的分析工具来帮助决策者针对未来进行决策。,DecisionSupportSystems-DifficultandEmphasis(难点与重点),AnExpertSystem(ES),orknowledgesystem,isasetofinteractivecomputerprogramsthathelpsuserssolveproblemsthatwouldotherwiserequiretheassistanceofahumanexpert,whichcostsmore。（p139）(从句译主句)一个专家系统或者知识系统是一整套的计算机互动程序，它能帮助用户解决了需要花费更多的开支来寻求专家才能解决的问题。,DecisionSupportSystems-DifficultandEmphasis(难点与重点),Decisiontheoryisaninterdisciplinary(跨学科)areaofstudy,relatedtoandofinteresttopractitionersinmathematics,statistics(统计学),economics,philosophy(哲学),managementandpsychology(心理学).(p143)决策理论是一个跨数学、统计学、经济学、哲学、管理学、和心理学学科间的研究领域，同时也是有兴趣于在这些跨学科间进行开拓的开拓者的研究领域。,DecisionSupportSystems-DifficultandEmphasis(难点与重点),Mostofdecisiontheoryisnormative(标准化的)orprescriptive(规范性的),i.e.itisconcernedwithidentifyingthebestdecisiontotake,assuminganidealdecisionmakerwhoisfullyinformed,abletocomputewithperfectaccuracy,andfullyrational.（p148翻译有问题）大部分决策理论是标准化或者规范化的，即就是：它是假设在知道一切情况的前提下，理想的决策者是能够识别和采取完全合理，相当精确的最佳决策的一门理论。,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,Itisconcernedwithhowrealdecision-makersmakedecisions,andwithhowoptimaldecisionscanbereached.现实当中决策者如何进行决策，和决策者如何获得最佳决策的过程是决策理论所关住的重点。,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,NormativeanddescriptivedecisiontheoryThepracticalapplicationofthisprescriptiveapproach(howpeopleshouldmakedecisions)iscalleddecisionanalysis,andaimedatfindingtools,methodologies(方法论)andsoftwaretohelppeoplemakebetterdecisions.Themostsystematicandcomprehensivesoftwaretoolsdevelopedinthiswayarecalleddecisionsupportsystems.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,NormativeanddescriptivedecisiontheorySinceitisobviousthatpeopledonottypically(向来)behaveinoptimalways,thereisalsoarelatedareaofstudy,whichisapositiveordescriptivediscipline(良好或者指导性规范),attemptingtodescribewhatpeoplewillactuallydo.很显然，由于人们的行为方式向来是不规范的，因此存在一个与行为相关的，尝试阐述人们现实中将要做些什么的良好或者指导性规范的研究领域。Sincethenormative,optimaldecisionoftencreateshypotheses(假说)fortestingagainst(依据)actualbehaviour,thetwofieldsarecloselylinked.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,NormativeanddescriptivedecisiontheoryFurthermore（also=而且）itispossibletorelax(放宽)theassumptionsofperfectinformation,rationality(合理性)andsoforth(andsoon)invariousways,andproduceaseriesofdifferentprescriptionsorpredictionsaboutbehaviour,allowingforfurthertestsofthekindofdecision-makingthatoccursinpractice.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,Whatkindsofdecisionsneedatheory?Decisiontheoryisonlyrelevantindecisionsthataredifficultforsomereason.Afewtypesofdecisionhaveattractedparticularattention:risklesschoicebetweenincommensurablecommodities(没有可比性的商品)choiceunderuncertaintyInter-temporalchoice(跨期选择)socialdecision,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,ChoicebetweenincommensurablecommoditiesThisareaisconcernedwiththedecisionwhethertohave,say,onetonofgunsand3tonsofbutter,or2tonsofgunsand1tonofbutter.这个领域是关注像枪炮换黄油这样不可比商品的决策。Thisistheclassicsubjectofstudyofmicroeconomicsandisrarelyconsideredundertheheadingofdecisiontheory,butsuchchoicesareofteninfactpartoftheissuesthatareconsideredwithindecisiontheory。这是微观经济学领域中经典研究课题，并罕见成为决策理论研究的热点。,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,ChoiceunderuncertaintyThisarearepresentstheheartland(中心地区=核心部分)ofdecisiontheory.DanielBernoullistatedthat,whenfacedwithanumberofactionseachofwhichcouldgiverisetomorethanonepossibleoutcomewithdifferentprobabilities,therationalprocedureistoidentifyallpossibleoutcomes,determinetheirvalues(positiveornegative)andtheprobabilitiesthattheywillresultfromeachcourse(过程)ofaction,andmultiplythetwotogiveanexpectedvalue.Theactiontobechosenshouldbetheonethatgivesrisetothehighesttotalexpectedvalue.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,ChoiceunderuncertaintyInrealitypeopledonotbehavelikethis,atleastif“value”istakentomean“objectivefinancialvalue”(客观价值)-otherwiseno-onewouldeithergambleortakeout（destroy）insurance.Withinbehaviouraldecisiontheory(行为决策理论),thishasledtovariousdilutions(稀释)oftheexpectedvaluetheory;forexample,objectiveprobabilitiescanbereplacedbysubjectiveestimates,andobjectivevaluesbysubjectiveutilities,givingrisetothesubjectiveexpectedutility(主观期望效用)orSEUtheory,developedbySavage.Theprospecttheory(前景理论)ofDanielKahnemanandAmosTverskyisanotheralternativetotheexpectedvaluemodelwithinbehaviouraldecisiontheory,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,ChoiceunderuncertaintyAhighlycontroversial(争议)issueiswhetheronecanreplacetheuseofprobabilityindecisiontheorybyotheralternatives.Theproponents(支持者)offuzzylogic,possibilitytheoryandDempster-Shafertheorymaintain(坚决主张/assert)thatprobabilityisonlyoneofmanyalternativesandpointtomanyexampleswherenon-standardalternativeshavebeenimplementedwithapparentsuccess.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,ChoiceunderuncertaintytheworkofRichardThrelkeldCoxforjustificationoftheprobabilityaxioms,theDutchbook（荷兰赌）paradoxes(自相矛盾，悖论)ofBrunodeFinetti(意大利统计和概率学专家)asillustrative*ofthetheoreticaldifficultiesthatcanarisefrom(appear,happen)departuresfrom(背离)theprobabilityaxioms.(Bruno诠释了背离概率原理的荷兰赌的理论是悖论）。,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,Choiceunderuncertaintythecompleteclasstheorems(定理)whichshowthatalladmissible（acceptable）decisionrulesareequivalenttoaBayesiandecisionrulewithsomepriordistribution(先验概率分布)(possiblyimproper(notsuitable)andsomeutilityfunction.Thus,foranydecisionrulegeneratedbynon-probabilisticmethodseitherthereisanequivalentrulederivable(可引出的)byBayesianmeans,orthereisarulederivablebyBayesianmeanswhichisneverworseand(atleast)sometimesbetter.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,Inter-temporalchoiceThisareaisconcernedwiththekindofchoicewheredifferentactionsleadtooutcomesthatarerealizedatdifferentpointsintime.IfIreceiveawindfall(横财)ofseveralthousanddollars,Icouldspenditonanexpensiveholiday,givingmeimmediatepleasure,orIcouldinvestitinapensionscheme,givingmeanincomeatsometimeinthefuture.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,Inter-temporalchoiceWhatistheoptimalthingtodo?Theanswerdependspartlyonfactorssuchastheexpectedratesofinterestandinflation,mylifeexpectancy*(hope),andmyconfidenceinthepensionsindustry.Howeverevenwithallthosefactorstakenintoaccount,humanbehaviouragaindeviates(偏离)greatlyfromthepredictionsofprescriptivedecisiontheory,leadingtoalternativemodelsinwhich,forexample,objectiveinterestratesarereplacedbysubjectivediscountrates,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,SocialdecisionsSomedecisionsaredifficultbecauseoftheneedtotakeintoaccounthowotherpeopleinthesituationwillrespondtothedecisionthatistaken.Theanalysisofsuchsocialdecisionsisthebusinessofgametheory,andisnotnormallyconsideredpartofdecisiontheory,thoughitiscloselyrelated.(student),DecisionSupportSystems-Decisiontheory,ComplexdecisionsOtherareasofdecisiontheoryareconcernedwithdecisionsthataredifficultsimplybecauseoftheircomplexity,orthecomplexityoftheorganizationthathastotakethem.Insuchcasestheissueisnotthedeviationbetweenrealandoptimalbehaviour,butthedifficultyofdeterminingtheoptimalbehaviourinthefirstplace(首要，首位).Reference:,AnyQuestionsorComments?,Ifyouhaveanycommentsandworthsuggestions,pleasedonothesitatetocontactwithmebymobilemessageoremail.DontforgetyourlearningExercises!Nextsession,wewillmentiontheinformationtechnology.(page165-)Bye-Bye,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,Decisionmakingisthecognitiveprocessofselectingacourseofaction(行动的过程)fromamongmultiplealternatives.Commonexamplesincludeshopping,decidingwhattoeat,anddecidingwhoorwhattovoteforinanelectionorreferendum(公民投票).Decisionmakingissaidtobeapsychologicalconstruct(心里学的构建体).Thismeansthatalthoughwecannever“see”adecision,wecaninfer*(deduce推断)fromobservable(看得见的)behaviourthatadecisionhasbeenmade.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,Thereforeweconcludethatapsychologicaleventthatwecall“decisionmaking”hasoccurred.Itisaconstructionthatimputes(归因于)commitment(承诺的义务)toaction.Thatis,basedonobservableactions,weassumethatpeoplehavemadeacommitmenttoeffecttheaction.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,Decisionmakingisanimportantpartofmanyprofessions*,wherespecialistsapplytheirexpertise*inagivenareatomakinginformeddecisions.Forexample,medicaldecisionmakingofteninvolvesmakingadiagnosisandselectinganappropriatetreatment.Duetothelargenumberofconsiderationsinvolvedinmanydecisions,decisionsupportsystemshavebeendevelopedtoassistdecisionmakersinconsideringtheimplicationsofvariouscoursesofaction.Theycanhelpreducetheriskoferrors.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,DecisionmakingstyleAccordingtoMyers(1962),apersonsdecisionmakingprocessdependstoasignificantdegreeontheircognitivestyle.StartingfromtheworkofCarlJung,Myersdevelopedasetoffourbi-polar(两极)dimensions.Theterminalpointsonthesedimensionsare:thinkingandfeeling;extraversion(外向)andintroversion(内向);judgement(判断)andperception(感觉);andsensing(感应)andintuition(直觉).,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,DecisionmakingstyleHeclaimedthatapersonsdecisionmakingstyleisbasedlargely(mainly)onhowtheyscoreonthesefourdimensions.Forexample,someonethatscorednearthethinking,extroversion,sensing,andjudgementendsofthedimensionswouldtendtohavealogical,analytical,objective,critical(判断谨慎的),andempirical(经验的)decisionmakingstyle.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,CognitiveandpersonalbiasesindecisionmakingItisgenerallyagreedthatbiases(偏见)cancreepintoourdecisionmakingprocesses,callingintoquestion(对.有异议)thecorrectnessofadecision.Belowisalistofsomeofthemorecommoncognitivebiases.Selectivesearchforevidence-Wetendto*bewillingtogatherfactsthatsupportcertainconclusionsbutdisregardotherfactsthatsupportdifferentconclusions.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,CognitiveandpersonalbiasesindecisionmakingPremature(未成熟)termination*ofsearchforevidence-Wetendtoacceptthefirstalternativethatlookslikeitmightwork.Conservatism(保守主义)andinertia(惰性)-Unwillingnesstochangethoughtpatternsthatwehaveusedinthepastinthefaceofnewcircumstances.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,CognitiveandpersonalbiasesindecisionmakingExperiential(经验的)limitations-Unwillingnessorinabilitytolookbeyond(further)thescopeofourpastexperiences;rejectionoftheunfamiliar.Selectiveperception-Weactivelyscreen-out(用屏幕把隔开/挡住)informationthatwedonotthinkissalient(非常重要的，突出的).,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,CognitiveandpersonalbiasesindecisionmakingWishfulthinking(一厢情愿)oroptimism(盲目乐观)-Wetendtowanttoseethingsinapositivelight(事物好的一面)andthiscandistort(歪曲)ourperceptionandthinking.Recency(崭新)-Wetendtoplacemoreattentiononmorerecentinformationandeitherignoreorforgetmoredistant*（faroff）information.Repetition(重复)bias-Awillingnesstobelievewhatwehavebeentoldmostoftenandbythegreatestnumberofdifferentofsources.,DecisionSupportSystems-Decisionmaking,CognitiveandpersonalbiasesindecisionmakingAnchoring(禁锢)-Decisionsareunduly(toomuch)influencedbyinitialinformationthatshapes(影响)ourviewofsubsequent*information.Groupthink-Peerpressure(趋同心理压力)toconform(obey)totheopinionsheldbythegroup.Sourcecredibility(可信性)bias-Werejectsomethingifwehaveabiasagainsttheperson,organiza