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精选文库What have been the trends and what are theprospects for European transport systems?A It is difficult to conceive of vigorous economicgrowth without an efficient transport system.Although modern information technologies canreduce the demand for physical transport byfacilitating teleworking and teleservices, therequirement for transport continues to increase. Thereare two key factors behind this trend. For passengertransport, the determining factor is the spectaculargrowth in car use. The number of cars on EuropeanUnion (EU) roads saw an increase of three millioncars each year from 1990 to 2010, and in the nextdecade the EU will see a further substantial increasein its fleet.(Facts: The rapid growth of car transport even with deve. Of tech)B As far as goods transport is concerned, growth isdue to a large extent to changes in the Europeaneconomy and its system of production. In the last 20years, as internal frontiers have been abolished, theEU has moved from a stock economy to a floweconomy. This phenomenon has been emphasised bythe relocation of soma industries, particularly thosewhich are labour intensive, to reduce productioncosts, even though the production site is hundredsor even thousands of kilometres away from the finalassembly plant or away from users.(Facts: Changes affecting the distances goods may be transferred)C The strong economic growth expected in countrieswhich are candidates for entry to the EU will alsoincrease transport flows, in particular road haulagetraffic. In 1998, some of these countries alreadyexported more than twice their 1990 volumes andimported more than five times their 1990 volumes.And although many candidate countries inherited atransport system which encourages rail, thedistribution between modes has tipped sharply infavour of road transport since the 1990s. Between1990 and 1998, road haulage increased by 19. 4%,while during the same period rail haulagedecreased by 43. 5%, although-and this could benefitthe enlarged EU-it is still on average at a muchhigher level than in existing member states.(Facts: Transport trends in countries awaiting EU admission)D However a new imperative-sustainabledevelopment-offers an opportunity for adaptingthe EUs common transport policy. This objective,agreed by the Gothenburg European Council, has tobe achieved by integrating environmentalconsiderations into Community policies, andshifting the balance between modes of transport liesideally be in place in 30 years time, that is by 2040.(Example: A fresh and important long-term goal of rebalance)E In 1998, energy consumption in the transport sectorwas to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2 theleading greenhouse gas. According to the latestestimates, if nothing is done to reverse the trafficgrowth trend. C02 emissions from transport can beexpected to increase by around 50% to 1, 113 billiontonnes by 2020, compared with the 739 billiontonnes recorded in 1990. once again, road transport isthe main culprit since it alone accounts for 84% ofthe C02 emissions attributable to transport. Usingalternative fuels and improving energy efficiency isthus both an ecological necessity and atechnological challenge.(Facts and Data: The environment cost of road transport)F At the same time greater efforts must be made toachieve a modal shift. Such a change cannot beachieved overnight, all the less so after over half acentury of constant deterioration in favour of road.This has reached such a pitch that today rail freightservices are facing marginalisation, with just 8% ofmarket share, and with international goods trainsstruggling along at an average speed of 18km/h.Three possible options have emerged.(Facts and data: The dying of rail freight) G The first approach would consist of focusing onroad transport solely through pricing. This optionwould not be accompanied by complementarymeasures in the other modes of transport. In the shortterm it might curb the growth in road transportthrough the better loading ratio of goods vehicles andoccupancy rates of passenger vehicles expected as aresult of the increase in the price of transport.However the lack of measures available to revitaliseother modes of transport would make it impossiblefor more sustainable modes of transport to take up the baton(接力).(Approach: First approach to adjust the price: Charging policy alone)H The second approach also concentrates on roadtransport. pricing but is accompanied by measures toincrease the efficiency of the other modes (betterquality of services, logistics, technology). Howeverthis approach does not include investment in newinfrastructure, nor does it guarantee better regionalcohesion. It could help to achieve greater uncouplingthan the first approach, but road transport wouldkeep the lions share of the market and continue toconcentrate on saturated arteries, despite being themost polluting of the modes. It is therefore notenough to guarantee the necessary shift of thebalance.(Second approach to increase efficiency while charging for roads)I The third approach, which is not new, comprises aseries of measures ranging from pricing torevitalising alternative modes of transport andtargeting investment in the trans-European network.This integrated approach would allow the marketshares of the other modes to return to their 1998levels and thus make a shift of balance. It is farmore ambitious than it looks, bearing in mind theh
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