专业英语物流和供应链管理(英文版)

Chapter4Strategiclead-timemanagement,Thischapter：,Exploresthecostoftimeandthedriversoftime-basedcompetition;shorteningproductlifecycles,customersdesireforreducedinventoriesandthedangersofbeingforecastdependentinanincreasinglyvolatilemarketplace.探讨时间成本和时间竞争的驱动力；正在不断缩短的产品生命周期，客户减少库存的要求，在动荡的市场环境下过分依赖预测的种种风险。,Examinestheconceptofleadtime,theorder-to-deliverycycle,itscomponentsandtheneedtoconsiderthewidercontextoftheorderto-cashcycle.分析前置时间、订单周期的概念及其构成要素，从更大范围来考察订货变现周期。Looksathowthereductionofleadtimescanimpactonthegoalsoflogisticspipelinemanagement.研究缩短前置时间是如何影响物流渠道管理目标的。,Outlinessomeofthewaysinwhichinadequatesystemsdesigncanlengthenleadtimesandengineercostratherthanvalueintothelogisticsprocess.概括了一些不恰当的系统设计方法，它们延长了前置时间，并增加了设计成本，却对物流过程的增值贡献不大。introducestheconceptofthelead-timegap,offeringanumberofsuggestionsforleadtime.介绍前置时间差的概念，提出一些缩短前置时间的建议。,Compendium,1.Time-basedcompetition2.Theconceptofleadtime3.Logisticspipelinemanagement4.Logisticsvalueengineering5.Thelead-timegap6.Summary,1.Time-basedcompetition,时间竞争,Timeismoney.,AsfarascostisConcernedthereisAdirectrelationshipBetweenthelengthOfthelogisticspipelineAndtheinventorythatIslockedupinit.,首先，就成本而言，物流渠道的长度与渠道中的存货数量有直接的关系。,Secondly,longleadtimesmeanaslowerresponsetocustomerrequirements.,其次，过长的前置时间意味着对客户需求反应的延迟。,Customersinallmarkets,industrialorconsumer,areincreasinglytime-sensitive.,Question1,Whatarethepressuresleadingtothegrowthoftime-sensitivemarkets?,Theconceptoftheproductlifecycle:Formanyproducts,thereisarecognizablepatternofsalesfromlaunchthroughtofinaldecline.,(1)Shorteninglifecycles,许多产品从投入市场到最后淡出市场，其销量遵循一个公认的模式。,Theproductlifecycle,Sales(),introduction,growth,maturity,saturation,decline,time,导入期,成长期,成熟期,饱和期,衰退期,产品生命周期,2.Customersdriveforreducedinventory,oneofthemostpronouncedphenomenaofrecentyearshasbeenthealmostuniversalmovebycompaniestoreducetheirinventories.,这些年，一个最明显的现象就是全球所有的企业都在着手降低它们的库存。,客户降低库存的需求,Question1,Whatisthedifferencebetweentraditionalandmodernwaystoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveries?,Manycompaniesstillthinkthattheonlywaytoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveriesisforthem,thesupplier,tocarrytheinventoryinsteadofthecustomer.Insteadwhatisneededisforthesuppliertosubstituteresponsivenessforinventorywheneverpossible.,许多公司仍然认为，给客户提供及时配送服务的唯一方法，就是只能由供应商代替客户持有库存。,其实作为供应商真正需要的是：在必要的时候用快速反应来代替大量的库存。,Question2,Howtoachieveresponsiveness?Why?,Responsivenessessentiallyisachievedthroughtimecompressioninthesupplychain.,压缩时间,完善服务,缩减成本,Breakingfreeoftheclassicservice/costtrade-off,打破传统的服务、成本权衡关系,3.Volatilemarketmakingrelianceonforecastsdangerous,QuestionWhatsthecontinuingproblemformostorganizationsaccordingtotext?Whatstherootcauseoftheseproblems?,由于市场多变，过于依赖预测很危险,Acontinuingproblemformostorganizationsistheinaccuracyofforecast.Whilstmanyforecastingerrorsaretheresultofinappropriateforecastingmethodologytherootcauseoftheseproblemsisthatforecasterrorincreasesasledtimeincreases.,time,Forecasterrorandplanninghorizons,预测误差和计划水平,2.Theconceptofleadtime,Question,Whatsthemeaningofleadtimefromthecustomersviewpointandfromthesuppliersperspectiverespectively?,FromthecustomersviewpointTheelapsedtimefromordertodelivery.FromthesuppliersviewpointThetimeittakestoconvertanorderIntocash.,从发出订单到收到货物的这段时间。,从接受订单到收回现金的时间,(1)Theorder-to-deliverycycle,Totalordercyclewithvariability,1.Ordercommunication,2.Orderentryandprocessing,3.Orderpickingorproduction,5.Customerreceiving,4.transportation,total,3,Timerange1to5days,Timerange1to3days,2,Timerange1to9days,5,3,Timerange1to5days,2,Timerange1to3days,5days,25days,15,运输,订单录入及处理,按单拣选或生产,客户接受,订货前沟通,订单履行周期的变动程度,Inthosesituationswhereordersarenotmetfromstockbutmayhavetobemanufactured,assembledorsourcedfromexternalvendors,thenclearlyleadtimeswillbeevenfurtherextendedwiththepossibilityofstillgreatervariationsintotalorder-to-deliverytime.,Leadtimecomponent,.,Orderingreceptionleadtine,Planningleadtime,Processingleadtime,Materialsplanningandpurchaseleadtime,supplierleadtine,transportleadtine,Receptionandinspectionleadtine,Assemblyreleaseandorderpicking,Waitingtimes,Processingtimes,Transporttimetonextstage(e.g.toinventoryassembly),Dispatchpreparationtime(documents,packages),Transporttimetocustomer,CommercialAndplanningLeadtime,MaterialsLeadtimes,AssemblyLeadtimes,DistributionLeadtimes,InstallationLeadtimes,商业和计划前置时间,原材料前置时间,汇总前置时间,配送前置时间,安装前置时间,前置时间构成要素,(2)Thecash-to-cashcycle,QuestionWhatsthebasicconcernofanyorganization?whatisruleofthumb?,CumulativeLeadtimeprocurementTopayment,Rawmaterialstock,Subassemblyproduction,Intermediatestock,Productassembly,FinishedstockatCentralwarehouse,In-transit,RegionaldistributionCentralstock,Customerordercycle,累积的前置时间（从采购到付款）,Strategiclead-timemanagement,Thelongerthepipelinefromsourceofmaterialtothefinaluserthelessresponsivetochangesindemandthesystemwillbe.,从原材料到最终使用者的渠道越长，系统就越缺乏对需求变动的应变能力,Anapproximateruleofthumbsuggeststhattheamountofsafetystockinapipelinevarieswiththesquarefootofthepipelinelength.,一个类似于“大拇指”的规则指出，安全库存数量的多少取决于渠道长度的平方根。,3.logisticspipelinemanagement,Question1,Howtocontrollogisticsleadtimessuccessfully?,Thekeytothesuccessfulcontrolofthelogisticsleadtimeispipelinemanagement.,成功控制物流前置时间的关键是实施物流渠道管理。,Question2,Whatarethegoalsofthepipelinemanagement?,Thegoalsofthepipelinemanagement,goals,Lowercosts,Higherquality,Moreflexibility,Fasterresponsetime,更低的成本,更高的质量,高强的灵活性,更快的反应速度,Howtoachievethesegoals,Managethesupplychainasanentityandseekingtoreducethepipelinelengthand/orcosttospeeduptheflowthroughthatpipeline.Tofindwaysinwhichtheratioofvalue-addedtocost-addedtimeinthepipelinecanbeimproved.,将供应链作为一个整体进行管理，并缩短整个渠道的长度，同时（或者）加速物品在渠道中的流动。找到可以提高增值时间与成本增加时间比率的方法。,Value-addingtime(time,placeandformutility),Cost-addingtime(promotion,storageandtransportcostandthetimecostofmoney),Rawmaterialstock,production,Finishedstock,In-transit,Regionalstock,Customerdelivery,Cost-addedversusvalue-addedtime,引起价值增加和成本增加的活动,（时间、地点和形态效用）增值时间,原材料库存,生产,产成品库存,运输,区域库存,客户配送,Cost-addedversusvalue-addedtime,成本增加时间（促销、仓储和运输成本及时间成本）,Value-addingtime,Rawmaterialstock,production,Finishedstock,In-transit,Regionalstock,Customerdelivery,Rawmaterialstock,production,Finishedstock,In-transit,Regionalstock,Customerdelivery,Cost-addingtime,Reducingnon-value-addingtimeimprovesserviceandreducescost,通过减少非增值时间来提高服务水平并降低成本,3.Logisticsvalueengineering,Manybusinesshaveinvestedheavilyinautomationinthefactorywiththeaimofreducingthroughputtimes.Howeveritisparadoxicalthatmanyofthosesamebusinessthathavespentmillionsofpoundsonautomationtospeedupthetimeittakestomanufactureaproductarethencontenttoletitsitinadistributioncentreorwarehouseforweekswaitingtobesold.,Therequirementistolookacrossthedifferentstagesinthesupplychaintoseehowtimeasawholecanbereducedthroughreengineeringthewaythechainisstructured.,Example1:Planningcycle/manufacturingleadtimeExample2:ForecastingandorderingofsuppliersExample3:Warehousepickinganddistribution,Onepoint,InsomanycasesitispossibletofindconsiderableOpportunityfortotallead-timereduction,oftenthroughSomeverysimplechangesinprocedure.,4.Thelead-timegap,Question1,Accordingtothetext,mostorganizationsfaceafundamentalproblem,whatisit?Thetimeittakestoprocure,makeanddeliverthefinishedproducttoacustomerislongerthanthetimethecustomerispreparedtowaitforit.Thisisthebasisofthelead-timegap.,Thelead-timegap,procurement,Customersordercycle,delivery,manufacturing,Logisticsleadtime,Thelead-timegap,Orderfulfillment,采购,生产,配送,物流前置时间,客户订货周期,前置时间差,订单履行,Question2,Whatsthecustomersordercycle?Thelengthoftimethatthecustomerispreparetowait,fromwhentheorderisplacedthroughtowhenthegoodsarereceived.,Thecompetitiveconditionsofthemarketaswellasthenatureoftheproductwillinfluencethecustomerswillingnesstowait.,Thefactorsthatinfluencethecustomerswillingnesstowait:,Howtoclosethelead-timegap?,shorteninglogisticsleadtimeMovethecustomersordercyclecloserbygainingearlierwarningofrequirementsthroughimprovedvisibilityofdemand.,缩短物流前置时间通过提高需求的可见性，尽量把客户订货周期调整到与早期得到的需求信息更接近。,Question3,Allthelogisticsprocessescanbeviewedasanetworkofinter-linkedactivitiesthatcanbeoptimizedasawholebyfocusingontotalthroughputtime.Anyattempttomanagebyoptimizingindividualelementsoractivitiesintheprocesswillleadtoaless-than-optimalresultoverall.,所有的物流过程都能被看做是由各种具有内在联系的活动所形成的一个网络，要想优化这个网络，必须要通过调整总体运营时间才能得以实现。而单纯通过优化个别要素或过程中个别活动只能得到一个次优化的结果。,（1）reducinglogisticslead-time,Question4,WhatsOPT?whatsitsessence?AsignificantcontributiontothewayweviewlogisticsprocesseshasbeenmadebyGoldrattwhohasdevelopedthetheoryofconstraints(约束理论)whichismoreusuallyknownasOptimizedProductionTechnology（生产技术优化理论）(OPT).TheessenceofOPTisthatallactivitiesinalogisticschaincanbecategorizedaseitherbottlenecksornon-bottlenecks.,OPT把一个物流链中的所有活动划分为瓶颈类或非瓶颈类。,Question5,Whatisabottleneck?Abottleneckistheslowestactivityinachainandwhilstitmayoftenbeamachine,itcouldalsobeapartoftheinformationflowsuchasorderprocessing.,瓶颈是指整个链中最慢的活动，它可以是一台机器，也可以是像订单处理一样的信息流的一部分。,Furtheropportunitiesforpipelinetimereductioncannormallybefoundattheinterfacewithsupplierslogisticssystem.,(2)Improvingvisibilityofdemand,Theideathatitcouldbepossibletoextendthecustomersordercyclemayatfirstsightseemimplausible.No,whatismeantbyextendingthecustomersordercycleisthatweshouldseektoobtainsignificantlyearlierwarningsofthecustomersrequirement.,Whatwefrequentlyfindisthatfirstofallthedemandpenetrationpointistoofardownthepipelineandthatsecondly,realdemandishiddenfromviewandallwetendtoseeareorders.Boththesepointsneedfurtherexplanation;firstlytheconceptofthedemandpenetrationpoint.,Question1Whatsthedemandpenetrationpoint?Thedefinitionofthedemandpenetrationpointisthatitoccursatthatpointinthelogisticschainwhererealdemandmeetstheplan.Upstreamfromthispointeverythingisdrivenbyaforecastand/oraplan.Downstreamwecanrespondtocustomerdemand.,在物流链中需求与计划达成一致的点。预测或计划驱动着需求渗透点上游的活动，下游所做的就是对客户需求做出反应。,Question2,Whatsthekeyconcernoflogisticsmanagement?Howtoachieveit?,Akeyconcernoflogisticsmanagementshouldbetoseektoidentifywaysinwhichthedemandpenetrationpointcanbepushedasfaraspossibleupstream.Thismightbeachievedbytheuseofinformationsothatmanufacturingandpurchasinggettohearofwhatishappeninginthemarketplacefasterthantheycurrentlydo.Theotherroutetoachievinganupstreamshiftoftheorderpenetrationpointisbypostponingthefinalcommitmentoftheproducttoitsfinalform.,Followingfigureillustratesarangeofpossibledemandpenetrationpointsindifferentindustrialandmarketcontexts.,.,DrivenByforecast,DrivenBydemand,plant,Distributioncentral,warehouse,depots,需求渗透点和战略库存,Demandpenetrationpointandstrategicinventory,Inasensetheinformationwereceive,ifweonlyhavetheordertorelyon,islikethetipofaniceberg.theordercycletime(i.e.therequiredresponsetimefromordertodelivery)mayonlybethevisibletip.,在某种意义上，如果我们仅仅依赖手头的订单，则所获得的信息犹如冰山一角。订货周期时间也可能仅仅是信息冰山上可视的一角。,Theareabelowthesurfaceoftheicebergrepresentstheongoingconsumption,demandorusageoftheproductwhichishiddenfromtheviewofthesupplier.Itisonlywhenanorderisissuedthatdemandbecomestransparent.,海平面以下的部分代表着未来的消费、需求或者使用产品的信息，而这些统统是在供应商的视野之外的。只有当订单发出之时，需求才变得透明。,Theinformationiceberg,Ordercycletim