麦肯锡为某著名外企所作中国冰箱行业战略报告

aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,CONFIDENTIAL,IndustrySituationAnalysis:Refrigerator,aaaaaaELECTRONICSCHINA(aaaaaaChina),Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinseyitisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.,KEYMESSAGES,Refrigeratormarketisexpectedtogrowat4.6%annuallyfromRMB21billionin2000toRMB26billionin2005.Althoughgrowingatarateashighas31.1%,side-by-siderefrigeratormarketisexpectedtoremainverylimitedinthenext5yearsIngeneral,industryprofitabilityforrefrigeratorismoderate.However,side-by-siderefrigeratorsenjoydoubledigitreturnonsalesExceptside-by-siderefrigerator,refrigeratormarketisledbylocalplayers.However,thereareopportunitiesforMNCstosuccessfullybuilduptheirpositionbyfocusingonmid-to-high-endsegmentsTherefrigeratorindustryisrelatively“low-tech”andhaslowentrybarriers.EntryintoWTOisnotexpectedtohavedirecthugeimpactonthecompetitiveenvironmentWithmarketsharesaround3to4%,aaaaaaismoderatelypositionedinrefrigeratormarket.,1,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETASSESSMENT,Marketassessment,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,2,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETASSESSMENT,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,Evaluationcriteria,weightandratingAssessmentofmarketattractiveness,Marketassessment,Product/servicedefinition,RelevantregulatoryenvironmentandtrendsRelevanttechnologicalenvironmentandtrends,MarketsizeandgrowthrateKeybuyingfactorsDistributionchannelstructure,MarketsharebycompetitorIndustryprofitabilityoreconomics,3,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETDEFINITION,Product/servicedefinition,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,Marketassessment,4,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,PRODUCTSCOPEWHITEGOODS,Productgroup,Productcategory,Airconditioner,Washingmachine,Whitegoods,Microwave,PackagedA/CCentralA/C*,Side-by-side,Refrigerator,Productsubcategories,*Usedbyresidentialsandsmallbusinesses,5,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETDEFINITION,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,Marketassessment,RelevantregulatoryenvironmentandtrendsRelevanttechnologicalenvironmentandtrends,6,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,LOW-ENDREFRIGERATORMARKETISLIKELYTOBEDOMINATEDBYLOCALCOMPETITORS.MNCSCOULDSUCCEEDINTHEMID-TO-HIGH-ENDNICHEMARKETS,Trends/issues,Implications,MarkethasbeenfairlyopenandwillremainsoMostleadingMNCplayersarealreadyinChinaandhavelocalizedtheirproductionandsourcing,Ingeneral,technologiesforrefrigeratorsarenotverycomplicated,esp.forlow-endproductsTechnologytrendistofocusondigitization,artificialintelligenceandenvironmentalfriendliness,EntrytoWTOisnotexpectedtohavehugedirectimpactoncurrentcompetitiveenvironment,ThemarketislikelytobedominatedbylocalplayerswhoaremostlynotasstrongintechnologyasMNCplayersbutstrongerinchannelandsalescapabilities,especiallyinthelow-endsegmentsMNCplayersarelikelytosucceedbybeingnicheplayersandfocusingonmid-to-high-endsegmentsCompetitioninproductinnovationislikelytofocusoncustomizationandlocalization,7,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETDEFINITION,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,Marketassessment,MarketsizeandgrowthrateKeybuyingfactorsDistributionchannelstructure,8,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,ALTHOUGHaaaaaaONDLARGESTMARKETAMONGWHITEGOODS,REFRIGERATORMARKETGROWTHWILLBEMODEST,Source:GFK,SINO-MR,LightIndustryInformationCenter,aaaaaa,fieldinterviews,McKinseyanalysis,2000,Side-by-side,Non-side-by-siderefrigerators,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,CAGR(00-05)Percent,21,130,22,060,23,050,24,070,25,140,26,260,Keydrivers,Rationaleorassumptions,Replace-ment,SincethepenetrationrateinChinaishigh(80%),particularlyinmajorcities(100%),majorityofthedemandfornon-side-by-siderefrigeratorswillcomefromreplacementpurchase,Incomegrowth,Increaseinaveragedisposableincomedrivesdemandformid-to-largecapacityandmid-to-highendrefrigerators,Averageprice,Dropsat4%p.a.,74,96,126,166,217,285,4.6,4.4,31.1,RefrigeratormarketsizeandgrowthRMBmillions,percent,Unitssold(non-side-by-side)millions,Averagesellingprice(non-side-by-side),9.4,14.3,13.1,12.1,11.1,10.2,1,840,1,910,1,990,2,070,2,160,2,250,8.8,-4.0,9,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,THEMARKETISVERYSATIATED,Replacementislikelytobethekeydriverforfuturedemand,Source:ChinaStatisticsYearbook,PenetrationrateinChina,Tier1Tier2Tier3WholeChina,103%101%87%80%,10,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MID-TO-LARGECAPACITYREFRIGERATORSHAVEBEENCONSUMERsFAVORITECHOICE,Source:SINO-MR,GfK,300L,CAGR(00-05)Percent,8.6,9.1,9.4,-18.4,4.5,-22.5,4.9,-5.1,17.3,8.7,-18.4,-18.4,11,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,SIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORMARKETWILLBEOFVERYLIMITEDSIZE,DESPITEITSHIGHGROWTHRATE,RMBmillions,percent,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,CAGR(00-05)Percent,31.1,Keydrivers,Rationaleorassumptions,Livingspace,Onlyhouseholdswithkitchensover30m2*areassumedtopossiblyconsiderside-bysiderefrigerators,Householdincome,OnlyhouseholdswithaverageannualincomeoverRMB500,000areassumedtopossiblyconsiderside-by-siderefrigerators,Lifestyle,Mostwealthypeoplehavemaidswhodogroceryshoppingeverydayandtheyarenotinhighdemandforsuperlargerefrigerators,Price,Dropsat2%p.a.,*ConstructionareaSource:ZhongxiTradingCo.,aaaaaa,LufthansaDepartmentStore,Sci-techDepartmentStore,YYSC,teamanalysis,3,500,4,680,6,260,8,380,11,210,15,000,33.8,Side-by-siderefrigeratormarketsizeandgrowth,21.0,20.6,20.2,19.8,19.4,19.0,-2.0,KeycustomergroupsChineseeducatedoverseasExpatriatesWealthylocalpeopleKeymarketsBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenShenyang,12,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,PRICEISTHEDOMINANTFACTORFORCONSUMERSNON-SIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORCHOICEWHILEBRANDAWARENESSISMOREIMPORTANTFORSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATOR,Factorstoconsiderwhenmakingnon-side-by-siderefrigeratorpurchasingdecisionsPercentofrespondents,Source:IMI,SCSS2000,interview,47,28,26,23,19,17,14,14,10,7,4,Brandimage,Price,Capacity,Energy-saving,Exteriordesign,Lownoise,Nofrost,After-salesservice,Non-CFCs,Freezercapacity,Other,KBFsforsidebysiderefrigerator,Softcommercials,suchasputtingaside-by-siderefrigeratorintheclubofhigh-endresidentialareaisveryeffectiveinincreasingtheawareness,Whenmakingpurchasedecisions,thekeyfactorsthatcustomersconsiderarebrand,designandfeature,Mr.GuYongGuyManagerZXHYTradingCo.,13,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,DIRECTCOOLINGISSTILLTHEPREFERREDCHOICEACROSSTHEMARKET,Percent,Source:SINO-MR;GfK,fieldinterview,NorthWest,EastChina,Althoughindirect-coolingrefrigeratorisfrost-free,ittendstodryupthefood.Asaresult,itisparticularlyunpopularinlesshumidareassuchasNorthernChina,NorthEast,NorthChina,SouthWest,CentralWest,Marketshareofdirectcoolingrefrigeratorsinmajorcities,2000,14,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,CHANNELSTRUCTUREFORREFRIGERATORSISFLAT,ESPECIALLYFORLOCALPLAYERS,Source:Interview,Localmanufacturers=70-80%MNCmanufacturers=30-50%,Localmanufacturers=20-30%MNCmanufacturers=50-70%,15,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,AMONGALLRETAILCHANNELS,HYPERMARKETSANDSPECIALTYSTORESAREEXPECTEDTOGROWFASTINTHENEARFUTURE,Salesdistributionbychannel-whitegoodsPercent,Hypermarkets,Specialtystores*,Departmentstores,Others,5,1998,2000,2003E,*IncludeselectronicchainssuchasGuomeiandDazhongSource:Saaaaaa,16,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,DISTRIBUTIONSTRUCTUREFORSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORSDIFFERBYTIERCITIES,Tier1cities,Manufacturers,1sttierdistributors,Retailers,2ndtierdistributors,20%,70%,Endusers,10%,Manufacturers,1sttierdistributors,Retailers,100%,Tier2cities,Source:Fieldinterview,17,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,KELONsCHANNELSTRUCTUREFORREFRIGERATORS,Source:Annualreport,fieldinterviews,Rongsheng,Keloniscurrentlyexploringotherchannelstrategies:SetupsalesanddistributioncompanieswithdistributorsCooperatewithlargeretailerssuchasCarrefourandGuomeiinproductplanning,Kelon,Retailers,1sttierdistributors,95%,5%,Kelon,Retailers,1sttierdistributors,40%,60%,Kelon,18,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,HAIERHASADISTINCTIVEDISTRIBUTIONAPPROACHWHICHISHEAVILYFOCUSINGONDIRECTRETAILSALESFORBASEANDHUBCITIES,.,Source:Fieldinterview;McKinseyanalysis,Specialtyshores,Firsttiercity,aaaaaaondtiercity,Thirdtiercity,Haiershop-in-shops,Retailersinfirsttiercities,RetailersinsomelargeaaaaaaondtiercitiesSpecialtystoreHaiershopinshops,RetailersinaaaaaaondtiercitiesSpecialtystoreHaiershopinshops,RetailersinthirdtiercitiesSpecialtystores,HaierA/CsalesCo.,Haiersalesbranchesinsmallaaaaaaondtiercities,Wholesalesinsomethirdtiercities,Haiersalescenterinfirsttiercities,Haiersalescenterinsomelargeaaaaaaondtiercities,Haiersalescentersinfirstandaaaaaaondtiercities,Haiersalesbranchesinbigthirdtiercities,Eastregion,Northregion,Westregion,Southregion,19,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETDEFINITION,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,Marketassessment,MarketsharebycompetitorIndustryprofitabilityoreconomics,20,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,WHILETHEMARKETISGETTINGMOREDOMINATEDBYTOPPLAYERSCOMBINED,MNCPLAYERSAREGRADUALLYTAKINGMORESHARES,*RongshengandKeloncombinedSource:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC,100%=,1998,Others,1999,2000,37.4,15.5,8.7,2.7,32.4,35.7,13.8,8.2,5.9,5.7,28.0,30.9,12.3,8.6,10.0,8.8,26.1,aaaaaa,Electrolux,Meiling,Kelon*,Haier,Siemens,8.6,9.1,9.4,HaierandKelonaretheleadingplayers.However,theirmarketsharesaredecreasingAlthoughlatecomerstothemarket,ElectroluxandSiemensarequicklybuildinguptheirpositionsbyfocusingonmid-tohigh-endandhigh-endmarketsComparedtootherMNCplayers,aaaaaasgrowthinthemarketisratherslow,Millionsunits,percent,Refrigeratormarketshareofmajorplayersinmajorcities,4.5,-6.2,15.6,270.7,101.2,3.9,-6.9,-5.0,CAGR(98-00)Percent,aaaaaa,Haier/Kelon/Meiling,Siemens/Electrolux,2.6,3.3,2.7,0.7,21,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,EAST,SOUTHANDSOUTHWESTCHINASEEMTOBETHEWINNINGTERRITORYFORMNCPLAYERS,*KelonandRongshengcombinedSource:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC,100%=,NorthChina,Others,aaaaaa,Electrolux,Meiling,Kelon*,Haier,Siemens,2.3,3.5,0.5,ElectroluxandSiemensaredoingparticularlywellinSouthwestApartfromSouthwest,MNCplayersaredoingbetterineastChinaandSouthChina,relativelymoreaffluentareasaaaaaaisrelativelystronginEastChinaandSouthChina,NorthEast,EastChina,CentralSouth,SouthWest,NorthWest,0.9,0.7,1.4,32.0,11.6,8.5,9.8,5.3,1.7,30.8,36.6,16.1,11.5,7.6,5.9,0.4,21.9,26.0,6.2,9.7,9.4,8.2,10.1,30.3,31.0,14.3,6.9,9.7,10.5,3.3,24.4,20.4,11.0,9.8,19.2,18.5,0.3,20.8,33.8,18.2,9.6,8.6,0.1,24.1,5.6,Marketshareinmajorcitiesbygeography,2000Millionunits,percent,aaaaaa,Haier/Kelon/Meiling,Siemens/Electrolux,22,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,LOCALLEADINGPLAYERSAREDOMINATINGINALMOSTALLPRICESEGMENTS,MNCPLAYERSTENDTOBESTRONGINMID-TO-HIGHENDMARKETS,*AnotherKelonsbrandSource:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC,100%=,4,000,2.0,1.9,2.0,24.1,12.5,1.2,17.8,19.6,24.8,0,0,16.0,12.6,0.1,7.7,4.1,45.7,13.8,28.3,16.5,0.1,8.5,10.0,31.5,1.9,3.4,47.3,9.7,1.1,5.9,8.8,7.2,1.3,18.7,36.3,2.0,3.8,2.9,19.3,26.0,9.4,0.4,29.8,0.1,4.3,4.7,0.3,48.1,0.3,12.5,Rongsheng*,0,Marketshareinmajorcitiesbypriceband,2000Millionunits,percent,Electrolux,Kelon/Rongsheng,Siemens,aaaaaa,23,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,LOCALPLAYERSAREDOMINANTINMOSTPRODUCTSEGMENTS,MNCPLAYERSHAVESTRENGTHINMID-TO-LARGECAPACITYMARKETS,*AnotherKelonsbrandSource:SINO-MR,GfK,LIIC,100%=,100L,Others,aaaaaa,Electrolux,Meiling,Kelon*,Haier,Siemens,0.2,1.0,0.7,HaierisleadinginmostmarketsElectroluxandSiemenshavestrongpositioninmid-to-largecapacitymarketsaaaaaaisverystronginsmallcapacity(300L,2.6,0.03,Rongsheng*,40.4,7.8,0,36.9,0.1,19.8,51.2,13.4,0,1.4,9.6,0,2.8,21.4,24.8,23.3,0.5,9.0,7.7,6.5,1.1,27.1,29.8,9.1,0.8,13.7,5.2,7.5,4.2,29.7,35.5,11.7,0.8,5.9,11.0,10.1,2.9,22.1,23.4,5.4,1.1,7.8,24.1,2.6,1.2,34.4,17.2,8.5,5.2,5.0,13.7,30.4,19.9,0.1,25.1,0,19.0,2.6,1.1,52.0,0.2,0,Marketshareinmajorcitiesbyproducttype,2000,aaaaaa,Haier/Rongsheng/Kelon,Siemens/Electrolux,24,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,GEISTHELEADINGPLAYERINSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORMARKET,100%=,Others*,aaaaaa,1,000,3,500,ThemarketisdominatedbyMNCplayersaaaaaahassignificantshareinthemarket.However,GEclearlydominatesNewplayerssuchasHaierareenteringthemarketThehigh-endside-by-siderefrigeratormarketislikelytoremainMNCsterritorywhile“localplayers”willfocusonlower-endsegments,Units,Percent,Unitmarketshare,6,0,*IncludesHaier,LG,Whirlpool,etc.Source:ZhongxiTradingCo.,aaaaaa,GE,1999,2000,Growthpercent,250,N/A,319,211,25,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,KEYMNCPLAYERSENJOYPRICEPREMIUMSINSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORS,GEenteredthemarketfirstandhasthestrongestbrandimage.Itspriceisthehighestaaaaaaspriceis10-20%lowerthanGEsOtherplayerspricesareonaverage10%lowerthanaaaaaas,Source:Fieldinterview;GfK,26,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,KELONANDMEILINGSFINANCIALSSHOWTHATMANUFACTURERSPROFITSUFFEREDOVERTHEPASTFEWYEARSANDAREEXPECTEDTOREMAINLOW,Source:MorganStanleyDeanWitterreport,annualreports,Meiling,1997,2001E,2000E,1999,1998,Kelon,EBITmarginPercent,27,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,MARKETASSESSMENT,Marketassessment,Supply(competitor)analysis,Demand(customer)analysis,Overallenvironmentanalysis,Marketdefinition,Evaluationcriteria,weightandratingAssessmentofmarketattractiveness,28,aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigerator,Evaluationcriteria,WeightPercent,Attractive-n