宏观经济学chap06-unemployment

Inthischapter,youwilllearn,aboutthenaturalrateofunemployment:whatitmeanswhatcausesitunderstandingitsbehaviorintherealworld,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Naturalrateofunemployment,Naturalrateofunemployment:Theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuates.Inarecession,theactualunemploymentraterisesabovethenaturalrate.Inaboom,theactualunemploymentratefallsbelowthenaturalrate.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,ActualandnaturalratesofunemploymentintheU.S.,1960-2007,Percentoflaborforce,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,Afirstmodelofthenaturalrate,Notation:L=#ofworkersinlaborforceE=#ofemployedworkersU=#ofunemployedU/L=unemploymentrate,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Assumptions:,1.Lisexogenouslyfixed.2.Duringanygivenmonth,s=fractionofemployedworkersthatbecomeseparatedfromtheirjobssiscalledtherateofjobseparationsf=fractionofunemployedworkersthatfindjobsfiscalledtherateofjobfindingsandfareexogenous,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Thetransitionsbetweenemploymentandunemployment,Employed,Unemployed,Thesteadystatecondition,Definition:thelabormarketisinsteadystate,orlong-runequilibrium,iftheunemploymentrateisconstant.Thesteady-stateconditionis:,sE=fU,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Findingthe“equilibrium”Urate,fU=sE=s(LU)=sLsUSolveforU/L:(f+s)U=sLso,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Example:,Eachmonth,1%ofemployedworkerslosetheirjobs(s=0.01)19%ofunemployedworkersfindjobs(f=0.19)Findthenaturalrateofunemployment:,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Policyimplication,Apolicywillreducethenaturalrateofunemploymentonlyifitlowerssorincreasesf.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Whyisthereunemployment?,Ifjobfindingwereinstantaneous(f=1),thenallspellsofunemploymentwouldbebrief,andthenaturalratewouldbenearzero.Therearetworeasonswhyf1:1.jobsearch2.wagerigidity,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Jobsearch&frictionalunemployment,frictionalunemployment:causedbythetimeittakesworkerstosearchforajoboccursevenwhenwagesareflexibleandthereareenoughjobstogoaroundoccursbecauseworkershavedifferentabilities,preferencesjobshavedifferentskillrequirementsgeographicmobilityofworkersnotinstantaneousflowofinformationaboutvacanciesandjobcandidatesisimperfect,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Sectoralshifts,def:Changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregions.example:Technologicalchangemorejobsrepairingcomputers,fewerjobsrepairingtypewritersexample:Anewinternationaltradeagreementlabordemandincreasesinexportsectors,decreasesinimport-competingsectorsResult:frictionalunemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CASESTUDY:Structuralchangeoverthelongrun,Moreexamplesofsectoralshifts,Late1800s:declineofagriculture,increaseinmanufacturingLate1900s:relativedeclineofmanufacturing,increaseinservicesector1970s:energycrisiscausedashiftindemandawayfromgasguzzlerstowardsmallercars.,Inourdynamiceconomy,smallersectoralshiftsoccurfrequently,contributingtofrictionalunemployment.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Publicpolicyandjobsearch,GovtprogramsaffectingunemploymentGovtemploymentagencies:disseminateinfoaboutjobopeningstobettermatchworkers&jobs.Publicjobtrainingprograms:helpworkersdisplacedfromdecliningindustriesgetskillsneededforjobsingrowingindustries.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Unemploymentinsurance(UI),UIpayspartofaworkersformerwagesforalimitedtimeafterlosinghis/herjob.UIincreasessearchunemployment,becauseitreducestheopportunitycostofbeingunemployedtheurgencyoffindingworkfStudies:ThelongeraworkeriseligibleforUI,thelongerthedurationoftheaveragespellofunemployment.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Byallowingworkersmoretimetosearch,UImayleadtobettermatchesbetweenjobsandworkers,whichwouldleadtogreaterproductivityandhigherincomes.,BenefitsofUI,Whyisthereunemployment?,Tworeasonswhyf1:1.jobsearch2.wagerigidity,DONE,Next,Thenaturalrateofunemployment:,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Unemploymentfromrealwagerigidity,Ifrealwageisstuckaboveitseqmlevel,thentherearentenoughjobstogoaround.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Unemploymentfromrealwagerigidity,Then,firmsmustrationthescarcejobsamongworkers.,Structuralunemployment:Theunemploymentresultingfromrealwagerigidityandjobrationing.,Ifrealwageisstuckaboveitseqmlevel,thentherearentenoughjobstogoaround.,Reasonsforwagerigidity,1.Minimumwagelaws2.Laborunions3.Efficiencywages,CHAPTER6Unemployment,1.Theminimumwage,Themin.wagemayexceedtheeqmwageofunskilledworkers,especiallyteenagers.Studies:a10%increaseinmin.wagereducesteenunemploymentby1-3%But,themin.wagecannotexplainthemajorityofthenaturalrateofunemployment,asmostworkerswagesarewellabovethemin.wage.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,2.Laborunions,Unionsexercisemonopolypowertosecurehigherwagesfortheirmembers.Whentheunionwageexceedstheeqmwage,unemploymentresults.Insiders:Employedunionworkerswhoseinterestistokeepwageshigh.Outsiders:Unemployednon-unionworkerswhoprefereqmwages,sotherewouldbeenoughjobsforthem.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,105,508,Privatesector(total),20,381,Government(total),14,045,Healthcare,3,312,Education,10,951,Professionalservices,6,304,Finance,insurance,4,379,Transportation,14,973,Retailtrade,15,518,Manufacturing,600,Mining,8,053,Construction,wageratio,U%oftotal,#employed(1000s),industry,wageratio=100(unionwage)/(nonunionwage),slide24,Unionmembershipandwageratiosbyindustry,2005,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,3.Efficiencywagetheory,Theoriesinwhichhigherwagesincreaseworkerproductivityby:attractinghigherqualityjobapplicantsincreasingworkereffort,reducing“shirking”reducingturnover,whichiscostlytofirmsimprovinghealthofworkers(indevelopingcountries)Firmswillinglypayabove-equilibriumwagestoraiseproductivity.Result:structuralunemployment.,Questionfordiscussion:,Usethematerialwevejustcoveredtocomeupwithapolicyorpoliciestotrytoreducethenaturalrateofunemployment.Notewhetheryourpolicytargetsfrictionalorstructuralunemployment.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,ThedurationofU.S.unemployment,averageover1/1990-6/2007,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Thedurationofunemployment,Thedata:Morespellsofunemploymentareshort-termthanmedium-termorlong-term.Yet,mostofthetotaltimespentunemployedisattributabletothelong-termunemployed.Thislong-termunemploymentisprobablystructuraland/orduetosectoralshiftsamongvastlydifferentindustries.Knowingthisisimportantbecauseitcanhelpuscraftpoliciesthataremorelikelytowork.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,TREND:Thenaturalraterisesduring1960-1984,thenfallsduring1985-2007,CHAPTER6Unemployment,EXPLAININGTHETREND:Theminimumwage,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,1950,1955,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,Dollarsperhour,minimumwageincurrentdollars,minimumwagein2006dollars,Thetrendintherealminimumwageissimilartothatofthenaturalrateofunemployment.,EXPLAININGTHETREND:Unionmembership,Sincetheearly1980s,thenaturalrateofunemploy-mentandunionmembershiphavebothfallen.But,from1950stoabout1980,thenaturalraterosewhileunionmembershipfell.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,CHAPTER6Unemployment,EXPLAININGTHETREND:Sectoralshifts,Priceperbarrelofoil,in2007dollars,Frommid1980stoearly2000s,oilpriceslessvolatile,sofewersectoralshifts.,EXPLAININGTHETREND:Demographics,1970s:TheBabyBoomerswereyoung.Youngworkerschangejobsmorefrequently(highvalueofs).Late1980sthroughtoday:BabyBoomersaged.Middle-agedworkerschangejobslessoften(lows).,CHAPTER6Unemployment,UnemploymentinEurope,1960-2006,slide34,Percentoflaborforce,0,3,6,9,12,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,TheriseinEuropeanunemployment,ShockTechnologicalprogresshasshiftedlabordemandfromunskilledtoskilledworkersinrecentdecades.EffectinUnitedStatesAnincreaseinthe“skillpremium”thewagegapbetweenskilledandunskilledworkers.EffectinEuropeHigherunemployment,duetogenerousgovtbenefitsforunemployedworkersandstrongunionpresence.,CHAPTER6Unemployment,Percentofworkerscoveredbycollectivebargaining,CHAPTER6Unemployment,ChapterSummary,1.Thenaturalrateofunemploymentthelong-runaverageor“steadystate”rateofunemploymentdependsontheratesofjobseparationandjobfinding2.Frictionalunemploymentduetothetimeittakestomatchworkerswithjobsmaybeincreasedbyun