Chapter4Foundationsofratioandfinancialanalysi.ppt

Chapter4FoundationsofRatioandFinancialAnalysis,INTRODUCTION1.Purposeanduseofratioanalysisfirmsofdifferentsized（不同规模的公司）aprofileofafirm（characteristics）,Fourbroadratiocategories:(1)Activityanalysis（营运能力）(2)Liquidityanalysis（流动性/短期偿债能力）(3)Long-termdebtandsolvencyanalysis（长期偿债能力）(4)Profitabilityanalysis（盈利能力）,2.Ratioanalysis:cautionarynotes(1)EconomicassumptionsProportionality（比例）assumptionfixedcosts(2)BenchmarksOptimallevels（最优水平）Industry（行业）normsasbenchmarks.,(3)Timingandwindowdressingonlyatspecificpointsintimeseasonalbusinesswindowdressing（弄虚作假）,Review,Whatarethefourbroadratiocategories?Whatarethecautionarynotesforratioanalysis?,(4)Negativenumbers（负数）,(5)AccountingmethodsGivesomeexamplesaboutdifferentaccountingmethodsusedbythecompany.,COMMON-SIZESTATEMENTS（共同比报表）asapercentageofarelevantbase.Balancesheet=TotalassetsIncomestatement=Sales1.Cross-sectional（代表性）comparisons(Exhibit4-1)P101Illustration:3pharmaceutical（制药）companiesfromdifferentcountries.,2.Industry（行业）comparisons(Exhibit4-2)P102Illustration:8industries3.Comparisonsovertime(Exhibit4-3)P104Illustration:5yearsof1company,1.Activityanalysis（营运分析）thefirmslevelofoperation=theassetsneededtosustainoperatingactivities.(1)Short-term（短期）activityratiosInventoryturnoverratio（存货周转率）Inventoryturnover=GOGS/averageinventoryAverageNo.daysinventoryinstock（存货周转天数）=365/inventoryturnover,DISCUSSIONOFRATIOSBYCATEGORY,Receivablesturnover=sales/averagetradereceivablesAverageNo.daysreceivablesoutstanding（应收账款周转天数）=365/receivablesturnover,Receivablesturnoverratio（应收账款周转率）,Accountspayableturnoverratio（应付账款周转率）,Payablesturnover=purchases/averageaccountspayable*purchases=COGS+(Endinginventory-Beginninginventory)AverageNO.Dayspayableoutstanding（应付账款周转天数）=365/payablesturnover,workingcapitalturnoverratio（营运资本周转率）,Workingcapitalturnover=sales/averageworkingcapital*workingcapital（营运资本）=currentassets-currentliabilities,InventoryTurnover=1277/431.5=2.96AverageNo.DaysInventoryInStock=365/2.96=123.31ReceivablesTurnover=1861/572=3.25AverageNo.DaysReceivablesOutstanding=365/3.25=112.31PayablesTurnover=(1277+53)/108.5=12.26AverageNo.DaysPayablesOutstanding=365/12.26=29.77WorkingCapitalTurnover=1861/(346+413)/2=4.90,(2)Long-termactivityratios（长期营运能力）Fixedassetturnoverratio（固定资产周转率）Fixedassetsturnover=sales/averagefixedassetsTotalassetturnover（总资产周转率）Totalassetturnover=sales/averagetotalassets,FixedAssetsTurnover=1861/(131+150)/2=13.25TotalAssetTurnover=1861/(1111+1253)/2=1.57,2.Liquidityanalysis（流动性分析）(1)Lengthofcashcycle（现金循环周期）Operatingcycle（经营周期）=Inventory+ReceivablesCashcycle（现金周期）=Inventory+ReceivablesPayables,AverageNo.DaysInventoryInStock=365/2.96=123.31AverageNo.DaysReceivablesOutstanding=365/3.25=112.31AverageNo.DaysPayablesOutstanding=365/12.26=29.77OperatingCycle=123.31+112.31=235.62CashCycle=235.62-12.26=223.36,*negativecashcycles,Review,1.Whataretheshort-termactivityratiosmentionedlasttime?2.Whycanthecompanyhavethenegativecashcycle?,(2)Workingcapitalratios（营运资本比率）anddefensiveintervals（速动资产够用天数）Currentratio（流动比率）=currentassets/currentliabilitiesQuickratio（速动比率）=(cash+marketablesecurities+accountsreceivable)/currentliabilitiesCashratio（现金比率）=(cash+marketablesecurities)/currentliabilities,cashflowfromoperationsratio=cashflowfromoperations/currentliabilitiesDefensiveinterval（速动资产够用天数）(Cashburnratio)=365(cash+marketablesecurities+accountsreceivable)/(projectedexpenditures),CurrentRatio=1103/690=1.60QuickRatio=(46+599)/690=0.93CashRatio=46/690=0.067DefensiveInterval=365X(46+599)/1838=120.09,3.Long-termdebt（长期债务）andsolvency（偿债）analysis(1)Debtcovenants（债务契约）,(2)Capitalizationtable（资本构成表）anddebtratios（债务比率）Twoimportantfactorsshouldbenoted:TherelativedebtlevelsthemselvesThetrendovertimeintheproportionofdebttoequityDebttocapital（资本负债率）=totaldebt/totalassetsDebttoequity（债务股本比）=totaldebt/totalequity,(3)Interestcoverageratios（利息覆盖率）Timeinterestearned（利息保障倍数）=earningsbeforeinterestandtaxes(EBIT)/interestexpense,(4)CapitalexpenditureandCFO-to-DebtratiosThecapitalexpenditureratiomeasurestherelationshipbetweenthefirmscash-generatingabilityanditsinvestmentexpenditures.Capitalexpenditureratio=CFO/capitalexpendituresTheCFO-to-debtmeasuresthecoverageofprincipalrepaymentrequirementsbythecurrentCFO.CFOtodebt=CFO/totaldebt,Debttocapital=929/1253=74.14%DebttoEquity=929/324=2.87TimesInterestEarned=(9+51+6)/51=1.29,4.Profitabilityanalysis(1)Returnonsales（销售回报率）Grossmargin（毛利率）=grossprofit/sales=（Sales-COGS)/salesOperatingmargin（经营毛利）=operatingincome/sales,Marginbeforeinterestandtax（息税前利润率）=EBIT/salesPretaxmargin（税前利润率）=EBT/salesProfitmargin（returnonsales销售回报率)=netincome/salesContributionmargin（边际收益率）=contribution/salesWherecontribution=sales-variablecosts（变动成本）,Grossmargin=(1861-1277)/1861=31.38%Operatingmargin=(1861-1277-504-14)/1861=3.55%Marginbeforeinterestandtax=(1861-1277-504-14)/1861=3.55%Pretaxmargin=(1861-1277-504-14-51)/1861=0.81%Profitmargin(ReturnonSales)=9/1861=0.48%,(2)Returnoninvestment（投资回报率）Returnonassets（资产报酬率）ROA=(netincome+after-taxinterestcost)/averagetotalassetsROA=EBIT/averagetotalassets,=,Returnontotalcapital（总资本报酬率）ROTC=EBIT/Average(totaldebt+stockholdersequity)ROTC=(Netincome+after-taxinterestexpense)/average(totaldebt+stockholdersequity)*thefigureshouldbethesamewithreturnonassets,ReturnonEquity（股本回报率）ROE=pretaxincome/averagestockholdersequityOrROE=netincome/averagestockholdersequityROCE（普通股股本回报率）=(netincome-preferreddividends)/averagecommonequity,ReturnonAssets=(9+51+6)/(1111+1253)*2=5.58%ROTC=ReturnonAssets=5.58%ReturnonEquity=9/(334+324)*2=2.74%,(3)ProfitabilityandcashflowsIgnorethatpart,ExerciseP141problems4,4.a.ActivityRatios:(i)Inventoryturnover=COGS/averageinventory=$12,000/$4,100=2.93(ii)Accountsreceivableturnover=Sales/averagereceivables=$19,000/$3,250=5.85(iii)Fixedassetturnover=sales/averagefixedassets=$19,000/$13,400=1.42(iv)Totalassetturnover=sales/averageassets=$19,000/$22,850=0.83,b.LiquidityRatios:(i)Operatingcycle=3651/inventoryturnover+1/receivableturnover=3651/2.93+1/5.85=187days(ii)Cashcycle:Purchases=COGS+increaseininventory=$12,000+$200=$12,200Numberofdayspayable=365xaveragepayables/purchases=365x$2,520/$12,200=75.4daysThereforecashcycle=18775.4=111.6days,(iii)Currentratio=currentassets/currentliabilities=$9,900/$4,400=2.25(iv)Quickratio=(cash+receivables)/currentliabilities=$5,700/$4,400=1.30(v)Cashratio=cash/currentliabilities=$2,200/$4,400=0.50,(vi)Defensiveinterval=365xcash+receivables/projectedexpenditures=365x$5,700/$14,200=146.5daysWhereprojectedexpendituresestimatedastotalcostsandexpenseslessdepreciation=$15,700-$1,500=$14,200,c.SolvencyRatios(i)Debttoequity=debt/equity=$19,404/$4,296=4.52(ii)Debttocapital=debt/(debt+equity)=$19,404/$23,700=0.82(iii)Timesinterestearned=earningsbeforeinterestandtax/interestexpense=$4,500/$1,200=3.75,d.ProfitabilityRatios(i)GrossMargin=(sales-COGS)/sales=($19,000-$12,000)/$19,000=36.8%(ii)Operatingincometosales=operatingincome/sales=$4,500/$19,000=23.7%(iii)Returnonsales=netincome/sales=$1,860/$19,000=9.8%,(iv)Returnonassets=earningsbeforeinterestandtaxes/Averageassets=$4,500/$22,850=19.7%(v)Returnonequity=netincome/averageequity=$1,860/$3,648=51%,Review,TheformatoftheseratiosQuickratioDebttoequityTimesinterestearnedReturnonsalesReturnonassetsReturnonequity,5.Operating（经营）andfinancial（财务）leverage（杠杆）,=,-,(1)Operatingleverage（经营杠杆）,Theoperatingleverageeffect(OLE)（经营杠杆系数）:OLE=%changeinIncome/%ChangeinSales=contribution/operatingincome,Totalexpenses=F+VX(X销量）,(2)FinancialleverageFLE（财务杠杆系数）=operatingincome/netincomeTLE（总杠杆系数）=OLEFLE=contribution/netincome,Assumption,RATIOS:ANINTEGRATED（综合的）ANALYSISEconomicrelationships（经济关系）e.g.(salesinvestmentinworkingcapital)Overlap（重叠）ofcomponentse.g.totalassetsturnoverinventoryturnoverRatiosascompositesofotherratiose.g.ROA=returnonsalestotalassetsturnover,1.Analysisoffirmperformance,(1)Disaggregation（分解）ofROAROA=Totalassetturnoverreturnonsales=(sales/assets)(operatingincome/sales),(2)DisaggregationofROEanditsrelationshiptoROADuPont（杜邦）analysis,(3)TrendsinROEandROA,ROE,Years,2.Economiccharacteristicsandstrategies,(1)Competingstrategies（竞争战略）,(2)Productlifecycle,Startup,Growth,Decline,Maturity,(3)Interindustry（行业）economicfactorsCompetitivefactors（竞争因素）,3.Classificationandselectionofratioswholesetrequireschoosingratiosthatareboth:(1)Highlycorrelatedwiththoseratiosexcluded（排除）,and(2)Notcorrelatedwiththeotherratiosinthesubset（子集）,Review,1.Whydoestheoperatingleverageexit?2.Whataretheformatsofoperatingleverageandfinancialleverage?3.Whatisthekeypointfortheoperationofahighturnoverandlowmarginfirm?4.Foracapitalintensityindustry,whichkindsofstrategiestheyusuallytake?,EARNINGPERSHARE（每股收益）ANDOTHERRATIOSUSEDINVALUATION1.Earningspershare（每股收益）Earningspershare(EPS)Pirce/earning(P/E)ratios（市盈率）,(1)SimplecapitalstructureBasicEPS=earningsavailableforcommonshares(归属于普通股股东的当期净利润)/weighted-averagecommonsharesoutstanding(当期发行在外普通股的加权平均数)Or(Netincome-preferreddividends)(本期毛利润-优先股股利)/weightedaveragecommonsharesoutstanding,(2)Complexcapitalstructure(ignore)(3)Adjustmentsforoptionsandwarrants(ignore)(4)LimitationsofEPScalculations(ignore)EPSgrowthratescanbedistorted（扭曲）byafirmsdividendandfinancingpolicies.,2.Cashflowpershare（每股现金流）Cashflowpershare=CFO/weighted-averagecommonsharesoutstanding在不动用外部筹资的情况下，用自身经营活动产生的现金偿还贷款、维持生产、支付股利以及对外投资的能力，它是一个评估每股收益“含金量”的重要指标。Doesnotreflectcashneededforrequireddebtpaymentsandcashrequiredformaintenanceofproductivecapacity,3.EBITDApershareEarningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortization(EBITDA)4.Bookvaluepershare（每股账面价值/每股净资产）Bookvaluepershare（P/B)=shareholdersequityweighted-averagecommonsharesoutstanding,5.Price-to-earnings（市盈率）andprice-to-book-value（市净率）ratiosLowP/BHighreturns6.Dividendpayoutratio（股利分配率）Dividendpayout=dividends/netincome,PATTERNSOFRATIODISCLOSUREANDUSE1.Perceivedimportanceandclassification2.Disclosureofratiosandmotivation,Profitability,Debt,Liquidity,1.a(i)Theidenticalamountissubtractedfrombothnumerator(CA)anddenominator(CL).Sincetheratio(beforesubtraction)isgreaterthan1,theeffectwillbetoincreasetheratio.(ii)Theratiowillincreasesincethedenominator(assets)willdecrease.(iii)Theratiowilldecreasesincethenumerator(cash)willdecrease(iv)Theratiowilldecreasesincethenumerator(debt)willdecrease.b.AlltheanswerswillbethesameasinAexceptfor(i)Currentratio.Sincetherationowislessthan1,theeffectwillbetodecreasetheratio.,2.TheWaltDisneyCompany(i)Accountsreceivableturnover=Revenue/Receivables=$25,402/$3,599=7.06Thisratiomeasurestheeffectivenessofthefirmscreditpoliciesandthecapitalrequiredtomaintainthefirmssaleslevel.(ii)Totalassetturnover=Sales/Totalassets=$25,402/$45,027=0.56Thisratioisdesignedtoevaluatetheefficiencyoflong-termcapitalinvestmentinproductivecapacitybymeasuringsalesgeneratedbyinvestmentsintotalassets.,(iii)Currentratio=currentassets/currentliabilities=$10,007/$8,402=1.19Thecurrentratioisthebroadestmeasureofcurrentandpotentialresourcesavailabletomeetshort-termobligations.(iv)CFOtocurrentliabilities=$6,434/$8,402=0.77Unlikethecurrentratio,thismeasurecomparesactualcashflowstocurrentobligations.,(v)Debttoequity=($8,402+$6,959+5,566)/$24,100=0.86Ameasureofriskcomparedtotheownersinvestmentinthefirm.(vi)Thetimesinterestearnedratio=EBIT/interestexpense=($2,526+$558)/$558=5.53isanindicatorofsafetyforcreditorsasitmeasurestheextenttowhichearningsareavailabletomeetinterestcharges.,(vii)Operatingincometosales=$2,848/$25,402=0.11Thisisameasureoftheprofitabilityofafirmscorebusiness.(viii)Returnonsales=netincome/sales=$920/$25,402=3.62%Anindicatorofoverallprofitability.(ix)Returnonassets=EBIT/totalassets=$(2848+236)/$45,027=6.85%Thisratiomeasurestheefficiencyoftheuseofassetsingeneratingoperatingprofitsandofthereturnaccruingtocapitalusedintheoperations.,3.a.ThreecomponentdisaggregationofROE:199720001.Returnonsales=Income/Sales=8.64%3.62%2.Assetturnover=Sales/Averageassets=0.590.563.LeverageAverage=assets/equity=22.501.87=Returnonequity=Netincome/equity=117.09%3.82%b.TheprimarycausesofthedeclineinROEarethelowerreturnonsales,andthelowerleverageeffectasequityissubstantiallyhigher.,4.a.ActivityRatios:(i)Inventoryturnover=COGS/averageinventory=$12,000/$4,100=2.93(ii)Accountsreceivableturnover=Sales/averagereceivables=$19,000/$3,250=5.85(iii)Fixedassetturnover=sales/averagefixedassets=$19,000/$13,400=1.42(iv)Totalassetturnover=sales/averageassets=$19,000/$22,850=0.83,b.LiquidityRatios:(i)Operatingcycle=3651/inventoryturnover+1/receivableturnover=3651/2.93+1/5.85=187days(ii)Cashcycle:Purchases=COGS+increaseininventory=$12,000+$200=$12,200Numberofdayspayable=365xaveragepayables/purchases=365x$2,520/$12,200=75.4daysThereforecashcycle=18775.4=111.6days,(iii)Currentratio=currentassets/currentliabilities=$9,900/$4,400=2.25(iv)Quickratio=(cash+receivables)/currentliabilities=$5,700/$4,400=1.30(v)Cashratio=cash/currentliabilities=$2,200/$4,400=0.50(vi)Defensiveinterva