Demand-Planning-with-SAP-APOPPT课件

DemandPlanningwithSAPAPO,ClausBoschApplicationSolutionManagementSCMSAPAG,January2008,SAP2008/Page1,Agenda,IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos&References,SAP2008/Page2,PainPointsinDemandPlanning,DoyouhaveproblemswithDifferencesinplanneddemandandactualsales?Incorporatingallnecessarydemandinformationlikepromotions,productlifecyclesorothereventsinyourdemandplan?Demandvisibilityandconsistencyacrossallyourdepartmentsandusers?Wrongforecasts?,SAP2008/Page3,ImplicationsforyourDemandManagement,andthereforefaceBadforecastqualityIncompleteandinaccuratedemandHighnumberofstockoutsHighinventorylevelsSlowresponsetochangingmarketLackofinformationforrightplanningdecisions,SAP2008/Page4,Doyouthereforeneedatoolto,shapedemandconsideringpromotions,eventsandthelifecycleofproducts,improveforecastaccuracy?,achievehigherproductavailability?,bettersenseandactivelymanagedemandbyconsideringvariousdemandsignals,supporteffectivelythesynchronizationofyoursupplyanddemand?,improvethecalculationofbufferorsafetystocks,SAP2008/Page5,Synchronizesupplywithdemandinyourglobalsupplychainbybalancingpushandpullnetwork-planningprocessesandbyhandlingreplenishmentandproductionbasedonactualdemand.APODP:ImprovestheforecastqualityandplanningaccuracyAPOSNP:ImprovesvisibilityacrossyourglobalsupplychainandlowersinventoryAPOPP/DS:SupportsyouincreatingoptimizedproductionplansAPOgATP:Allowsstate-of-the-artsalesorderconfirmationplanningprocessesAPOTP/VS:OptimizestransportationloadsandminimizestransportationcostsAPOAlertMonitor:PowerfulexceptionmessagesystemintegratedinallAPOplanningmodules,GlobalAvailable-to-Promise,DemandPlanning,SupplyNetworkPlanning,ProductionPlanning&DetailedScheduling,AdvancedPlanning&Optimization,AlertMonitor,TransportationPlanning&VehicleScheduling,DemandPlanningispartofAPO,SAP2008/Page6,Agenda,IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos&References,SAP2008/Page7,APODP(DemandPlanning),Comprehensiveforecastingtool-setStatisticalforecastingwithcausalandtime-seriesmethodsSelectionofbest-fitmodelAutomaticoutlierdetectionavailableHighlyconfigurableplanningbookswithmacrofunctionalitySupportingaggregation/disaggregationlogicLifecycleplanningPlanpromotionsseparatelyfromtherestofyourforecastTrack&monitorforecastaccuracySeasonalplanningCollaborativedemandplanning,ImprovedforecastqualityOnetoolforpowerandbusinessuserConsolidateddemandplan(differentregions,countries,departments,),KeyBenefits,Features,Calculateanddeterminefuturedemandtoimprovedemandqualityandaccuracy,SAP2008/Page8,TypicalDPPlanningCycle,Sense&Respond,Compareandevaluatedifferentscenarios,Importrelevantmasterandtransactionaldata(e.g.historicaldata),Generateforecast&applylifecyclemanagement,Reviewfinaldemandplan,Planpromotionsand/orotherevents,ReleasefinaldemandtoAPOSNPorSAPERP,Simulate,1,3,4,5,6,7,Analyzeandpreparedata,2,Collaborate,SAP2008/Page9,InteractivePlanning,Textcanbeaddedtoanycell(notesmanagement)Copyandpaste(withingridandfrom/toMicrosoftExcel)User-specificcustomization,FreedefinitionofplanningbooksanddataviewsCreationofdatagroups(selections)anduser-specificassignmentMulti-levelplanningwithfullvisibility(drillup/down)Supportingdifferentaggregation/disaggregationlogicDatarepresentationondifferentperiodicitiesandhorizons,SAP2008/Page10,UsegraphsandchartstorepresentdatainvisuallyperspicuouswayGraphswithdatamanipulationpossibilitiesUsehighflexibilityincustomizingandcapabilityofdisplayingmorecharttypes,InteractivePlanning-SAPChartEngine,SAP2008/Page11,Macros,Useadvancedmacrostoperformcomplexcalculationsquicklyandeasily.APOsystemcomeswithexamplesoftheuseofmacrofunctionsandoperatorsMacrosareexecutedeitherdirectlybytheuserininteractiveplanningorautomaticallyatapredefinedpointintimeduringabackgroundjob.,SAP2008/Page12,AlertManagement,Alertsarecommunicatedtotheuserby:VisualizationinthealertmonitorMailSMSmessage,AlertscanbecustomizeduserspecificAlertsaretriggeredduringplanningrunorinteractiveplanningfor:ForecasterrorsexceedingbordersdefinedbytheuserAnykindofcheckcarriedoutbyamacro,SAP2008/Page13,LifecycleManagement,Actualsforoldproduct,LifecyclePlanningsimulatesthelaunch,growth,maturity,anddiscontinuationphasesofdifferentproductsMimicsthesalescurvethatyouexpecttheproducttodisplayduringthefollowingphases:LaunchandgrowthDiscontinuation,SAP2008/Page14,PromotionPlanning,Attemptstopredicttheoutcomeoftheeffectofanevent,e.g.,monthlypromotionsoradvertisingcampaignEnablesseparationofbasesalesdatafromchangescausedbytheeventTools:MultilevelpromotionsCannibalizationPostpromotionanalysispatternidentification&repetitionCollaborationthroughtheInternetwithtradingpartnerIntegrationofcampaignscreatedinSAPCRMtosupportTradePromotionManagement,SAP2008/Page15,Cannibalization,Youusecannibalizationgroupstomodeltheimpactofapromotiononsalesofrelatedproducts,SAP2008/Page16,SeasonalPlanning,Freelydefinableseasonsandplanningyearsareintroducedthatcanbeflexiblyassignedtocharacteristiccombinations,SAP2008/Page17,ObjectiveCreateademandplanbyintegratingallavailableinformationCollaborativeprocesstogain“onenumber”consensusfromsales,marketing,operationsCombinevariousdata:ForecastPromotionsBudgets,salesplans,etc.Manualchanges,ConsensusDemandPlanning,SAP2008/Page18,DuetDemandPlanning,DuetDemandPlanningenablessalesandplannerstoutilizethefullMicrosoftExcelcapabilitiesasaintuitiveplanningfrontendformySAPSCM,FasterandaccurateplansalignedtocustomerdemandrequirementsLeveragesthefullcapabilitiesofMicrosoftExcel(formulae,functions,graphics,etc.)PresentsanintuitiveinterfacethatrequiresminimumtrainingDeliversimproveduseracceptanceandproductivitythroughsimpleandtimelyaccesstorelevantbusinessinformationDesignedasacompositeapplicationbasedonEnterpriseSOA,SAP2008/Page19,DemandCombination,DemandCombinationreconcilesmultipledemandstreamsinanautomatedmannerusingaflexibledecisionframeworkthatrepresentbusinessrulestogetamoreaccurateprojectionofdemandAnalysesmultipledemandstreamsinanautomatedmannerCarriesoutreasonabilitycheckstoidentifyeventsorotherdemandcomponentsAlertsusertodiscrepancieswhereautomatedcorrectionisnotpossibleDeterminesthemostappropriatedemandstreamforeachtimeperiodPassesthereconcileddemandtothedownstreamplanningandexecutionsystemsIsanenablerofademand-drivensupplynetworke.g.forcollaborativeplanning,dynamicS&OP,incorporationoftheVMIorderforecastintothedemandplan,SAP2008/Page20,Agenda,IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos&References,SAP2008/Page21,ForecastingpredictsfuturedemandbasedonhistoricalandjudgmentaldataForecastscanbecreatedinvariousways:StatisticalmethodsHumanjudgementCombinationofabove,Forecasting,SAP2008/Page22,ConstantExponentialsmoothingMovingaverageWeightedmovingaverageTrendExponentialsmoothingLinearRegressionSeason(withouttrend)ExponentialsmoothingTrend-SeasonExponentialsmoothingManualForecastingSeasonallinearregressionOthersCroston(sporadicdemand)HistoryNoForecastExternalForecast,CausalAnalysisMultipleLinearRegression(MLR)InfluenceVariablesClimate(e.g.Temperature)PriceAdvertisingDistribution.,AUTOMATEDPICKBEST,CompositeForecastOwndefinedmodelselectionbasedonerrormeasureCombinedifferentforecastsWeighteachforecast(timeindependentordynamic),StatisticalForecastingMethods,SAP2008/Page23,Finalizedforecast,UnivariateForecastingMethods,Correctedcurrentdata,Forecast,Correctedforecast,Currentdata,ConstantExponentialsmoothing1storderExponentialsmoothing1storderwitha-adaptationMovingaverageMovingweightedaverageCrostonTrendExponentialsmoothing1storder/HoltExponentialsmoothing2ndorderExponentialsmoothing2ndorderwitha-adaptationLinearRegressionSeason(withouttrend)Exponentialsmoothing1storder/WintersTrend-SeasonExponentialsmoothing1storderSeasonallinearregressionOthersHistoryManualForecastingNoForecastExternalForecast/BAdI,SAP2008/Page24,IntermittentDemand,Phase-In/Out,ChooseForecastingModelOverview,DifferentunivariateforecastingmethodscanbeassignedbasedonregularandintermittentdemandpatternsAdditionally,lifecycleprofilescanbeaddedtosimulatephase-in/outofproducts.,SAP2008/Page25,AutomatedPicktheBestModelSelection,YoucanchooseAutomaticModelSelectionifthereisnoknowledgeofthepatternsinthehistoricaldataThehistoricaldataarecheckedforconstant,trend,seasonal,andseasonaltrendpatternsProcedure1Therelevantforecastparameters(alpha,beta,andgamma)areconstantNoconsiderationoferrormeasureTheforecastingmodelthatcorrespondsmostcloselytothepatterndetectedisappliedProcedure2Testsforconstant,trend,seasonal,andseasonaltrendpatterns,usingallpossiblecombinationsforthealpha,beta,andgammasmoothingfactorsThemodelwiththelowesterrormeasurecustomized(e.g.,meanabsolutedeviationMAD)ischosen,SAP2008/Page26,MultipleLinearRegression(MLR),MLRcanassesshowthedevelopmentofone(dependent)variablecanbeexplainedbyseveral(independent)variablesForacausalanalysis,MLRdoesthefinalcalculationoftheregressioncoefficientsTypicalvariables:TrendSeasonalityClimaticconditions(e.g.,temperature,precipitation)Economy(e.g.,GDP,inflation,unemploymentrate)Productspecific(e.g.,price/costs,newmodel/version,marketingactivities)Demography(e.g.,populationinageclasses)Others(e.g.,lifecycle,),SAP2008/Page27,MultipleLinearRegression(MLR),CausalAnalysiscanassesshowthedevelopmentofone(dependent)variablecanbeexplainedbyseveral(independent)variablesTheinputdatafortheMLR,i.e.themodellingofthecausaleffectsisthekeyissue,Yi=bo+b1X1+b2X2.+bnXn,SalesHistory,Mean,Coefficients,CausalFactor,SAP2008/Page28,CompositeForecasting,CombinedifferentforecastsOwndefinedmodelselectionbasedonerrormeasureWeighteachforecast(timeindependentordynamic)EnablesthecombinationofdifferentforecastswithaconstantortimedependentweightingTheweightingwill,ingeneral,bepurelyarbitrary,Forecast,1n,.,Combine&Reconcile,Univariate,MLR,Univariate,Result,MLR,SAP2008/Page29,ForecastErrorMeasuresforUnivariateModels,LookaterrorsovertimeCumulativemeasuressummedoraveragedoveralldataErrorTotal(ET)MeanPercentageError(MPE)MeanAbsolutePercentageError(MAPE)MeanSquaredError(MSE)RootMeanSquaredError(RMSE)SmoothedmeasuresreflectserrorsintherecentpastMeanAbsoluteDeviation(MAD),MeasureBias,Measureerrormagnitude,SAP2008/Page30,MeasuresofFitforMLR,InfluenceofanindependentvariableCoefficient,Elasticity,AMeasureOfGoodness-Of-FitR2AdjustedR2,Correlationofthedependenttoanindependentvariablet-statistic,Autocorrelation(pastperiodsareinfluencingcurrentperiods)Durbin-WatsonDurbin-h,SAP2008/Page31,Agenda,IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos&References,SAP2008/Page32,IntegrationBetweenSAPSCMandSAPNetWeaverBusinessIntelligence(SAPNetWeaverBI),SAPSCM,WithinternalSAPBI,APODemandPlanning,DemandHistory,ExternalSAPBI,InfoCube,InfoCube,Centraldatastoreforreportingandanalyzing,Sourcesystemsinclude:SAPERPExcelNon-SAPsystems,POSdataCostinformationOrderandshippingdata,DemandHistory,DemandHistory,Forecastingresults,SAP2008/Page33,DatainSAPSupplyChainManagement(SAPSCM),DPmasterData:CVCs,TransactionalData,SAPBIextractionstructures,SAPSCM,SAPERP,MasterData,TransactionalData,MasterData,ATP,DP,PP/DS,SNP,LC,CIF,SAPBI,LocationProductResourcePPM/PDS,SAP2008/Page34,DemandPlanningMasterData:CharacteristicValueCombinations,PlanningObjectStructure,SAP2008/Page35,Agenda,IntroductiontoDemandPlanningAPODemandPlanningfeaturesAPOForecastingAPODemandPlanningintegrationandmasterdataSAPAPOInfos&References,SAP2008/Page36,SomefiguresaboutSAPAPO&Information,FirstreleaseSAPAPO1.1(1998)Currentrelease:SAPAPO5.1(8thAPOrelease)partofSCM2007-inramp-upsinceAugust31st2007-massshipmentplannedforQ1/2008Plannednextrelease:SAPAPO7.0(Startramp-up:Q4/2008)NumberofactiveAPOcustomers:1800,ServicemarketplaceforSCM:,Information,SomefiguresaboutSAPAPO,SAP2008/Page37,Molex-SAPDemandPlanning(1),SAP2008/Page38,Molex-SAPDemandPlanning(2),SAP2008/Page39,Conair-SAPDemandPlanning,SAP2008/Page40,OxfordUniversityPress-SAPSupplyChainManagement(1),SAP2008/Page41,OxfordUniversityPress-SAPSupplyChainManagement(2),SAP2008/Page42,AnalystQuotes,“SAPExtendsItsVisionforSupplyChainManagement1“AsimplementationsofSAPAdvancedPlannerandOptimizer(APO)haveincreased,APOsstrengths(andchallenges)havebecomeapparent.”“APO5.0isthemostmatureproductinthemySAPSCMportfolioWithAPO5.0,SAPhasmovedtheinvestmenttowardsinnovationandnewfunctionality”“Functionally,SAPisagoodcontenderwhencompaniesareconsideringusingSAPAPOtopowertheirATPprocesses”.,1White,etal.,March20,2006(Gartner),SAP2008/Page43,SAPSCM,ClausBoschClaus.bosch,“ThispresentationisapreliminaryversionandnotsubjecttoyourlicenseagreementoranyotheragreementwithSAP.Thisdocumentcontainsonlyintendedstrategies,developments,andfunctionalitiesoftheSAPproductandisnotintendedtobebindinguponSAPtoanyparticularcourseofbusiness,productstrategy,and/ordevelopment.PleasenotethatthisdocumentissubjecttochangeandmaybechangedbySAPatanytimewithoutnotice.SAPassumesnoresponsibilityforerrorsoromissionsinthisdocument.”,SAP2008/Page44,Copyright2008SAPAGAllrightsreserved,NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorforanypurposewithouttheexpresspermissionofSAPAG.Theinformationcontainedhereinmaybechangedwithoutpriornotice.SomesoftwareproductsmarketedbySAPAGanditsdistributorscontainproprietarysoftwarecomponentsofothersoftwarevendors.SAP,R/3,mySAP,mySAP.com,xApps,xApp,SAPNetWeaver,Duet,BusinessByDesign,ByDesign,PartnerEdgeandotherSAPproductsandservicesmentionedhereinaswellastheirrespectivelogosaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofSAPAGinGermanyandinseveralothercountriesallovertheworld.Allotherproductandservicenamesmentionedandassociatedlogosdisplayedarethetrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.Datacontainedinthisdocumentservesinformationalpurposesonly.Nationalproductspecificationsmayvary.TheinformationinthisdocumentisproprietarytoSAP.ThisdocumentisapreliminaryversionandnotsubjecttoyourlicenseagreementoranyotheragreementwithSAP.Thisdocumentcontainsonlyintendedstrategies,developments,andfunctionalitiesoftheSAPproductandisnotintendedtobebindinguponSAPtoanyparticularcourseofbusiness,productstrategy,and/ordevelopment.SAPassumesnoresponsibilityforerrorsoromissionsinthisdocument.SAPdoesnotwarranttheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformation,text,graphics,links,orotheritemscontainedwithinthismaterial.Thisdocumentisprovidedwithoutawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressorimplied,includingbutnotlimitedtotheimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantability,fitnessforaparticularpurpose,ornon-infringement.SAPshallhavenoliabilityfordamagesofanykindincludingwithoutlimitationdirect,special,indirect,orconsequentialdamagesthatmayresultfromtheuseofthesematerials.Thislimitationshallnotapplyincasesofintentorgrossnegligence.Thestatutoryliabilityforpersonalinjuryanddefectiveproductsisnotaffected.SAPhasnocontrolovertheinformationthatyoumayaccessthroughtheuseofhotlinkscontainedinthesematerialsanddoesnotendorseyouruseofthird-partyWebpagesnorprovideanywarrantywhatsoeverrelatingtothird-partyWebpagesWeitergabeundVervielfltigungdieserPublikationodervonTeilendaraussind,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