2015年8月经济学人(英汉双语对照).doc

2015年8月经济学人中英双语对照 2015-08-01 西班牙经济 伊比利亚的黎明Spains economy 西班牙经济Iberian dawn 伊比利亚的黎明The labour market is recovering at last. But it needs further reform 劳动市场最终还是复苏了，但是其需要进一步的改革。THIS was the news the government had been waiting for. “Spains labour market has made a 180-degree turn,” crowed the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, as the country announced the first annual rise in employment in six years. The numbers show that unpopular reforms to the malfunctioning labour market are starting to work. But there is plenty left to do. 这是政府翘首以待的消息。“西班牙的劳动力市场已经发生了180度的大转弯”，当西班牙政府宣布这是六年来西班牙首次就业增长时，西班牙总理马里亚诺拉霍伊对此洋洋自得。这些数字表明那些不受失灵劳动力市场待见的改革也已经初见成效，但仍有许多东西亟待解决。In the past year Spain has created 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, still one of the highest in the euro zone, fell from 26% to 24.5% (see chart), and the labour force stopped shrinking after six straight quarters of decline. 在过去的一年中西班牙国内增加了19万个就业岗位。在欧元区位列前茅的失业率从之前的26%下降到24.5%，在连续六个季度的下降之后，劳动力也停止了萎缩。The labour reform in 2012 gave companies more flexibility to set wages and working conditions themselves rather than through sector-wide bargaining, and cut severance payments for unfair dismissals. Those changes, buttressed by a deal between unions and employers, tempered wage growth that had far outstripped gains in productivity. How much credit do they deserve for the upturn in employment? 2012年的劳动改革给企业带来了更多的灵活性以确保工资和工作条件自身的稳定而不是通过全部门的谈判并削减对不公平解雇所分发的遣散费。这些变化是基于工会与雇主之间的交易，这种收入增长的调节大大领先于生产率的加强。但是就业情况的好转会为他们带来多少信用呢？The answer may determine the political fate of Mr Rajoy, who defied street protests to push reform through and faces a general election by the end of next year. The opposition Socialist Party claims that the number of unemployed has risen by more than 600,000 since Mr Rajoy took office in 2011, despite the reforms. Pedro Sanchez, the partys new secretary-general, promises to repeal them if it regains power. 这个答案或许会决定拉霍伊的政治命运。拉霍伊抵制街头抗议，强行推进改革，而明年年底西班牙大选在即。在野的社会党声称，尽管有改革，但是自从2011年拉霍伊先生上任以来，失业人数增加了至少60万。该党派的新任秘书长佩德罗桑切斯承诺，如果该党重新上台，则会废除一切不利的改革政策。That would be a mistake. Other factors contributed to the jobs recovery, especially the “whatever it takes” pledge by the European Central Bank two years ago to save the euro. But reform played an important role, says Rafael Domenech, an economist at BBVA, a bank. One piece of evidence is that Spain is creating jobs at lower rates of GDP growth than before. In previous cycles, employment rose when growth hit 2%. This time the gain came during a year when GDP expanded by just 1.2%. 而这看起来会是一个错误。其他的因素促成了就业复苏，尤其是两年前欧洲央行为了拯救欧元所作出的那个“不惜一切代价”的誓言发挥了极大的作用。然而在BBVA银行的经济学家拉斐尔多梅内克看来，拉霍伊的改革却起到了至关重要的作用。支持这一说法的证据之一是，西班牙国内新增的就业机会所占国内生产总值的最低比重。在以前的经济周期中，当经济增长达到两个百分点的时候就业才会增长。而这一次在GDP仅仅增长一个百分点的时候就业就已经增长了。To make a serious dent in unemployment, however, Spain will need to be more ambitious. Without further changes, the jobless rate will not dip below 20% until 2019, according to the IMF. The structural unemployment ratethe level reached when the economy is working at capacityis 18%, triple that of America. 然而，为了大力降低失业率，西班牙需要再加一把劲。据国际货币基金组织称，如果没有其他变革，直至2019年失业率也不会降低至百分之二十之下。而西班牙的结构性失业-即劳动力对经济变动的适应水平-已经达到百分之十八，是美国的三倍。One problem is that many small companies (with ten workers or fewer) have not benefited from greater flexibility. That is because the process of opting out of sector-wide agreements can be cumbersome. Such opt-outs could be made easier. 一个问题是，有许多小企业（只有十个员工甚至更少）并没有从更大的灵活性中收益。这是因为选择退出的全部门协议的过程会十分复杂。而事实上这一过程能变得更容易。Another is that nearly a quarter of workers are still on temporary contracts. This is damaging, because they are much less productive than those with permanent jobs and employers do not invest in them. One way to encourage firms to hire permanent workers would be to cut severance payments to the levels of other European countries. 另外一个问题是，近四分之一的工人仍然签着临时合同。这对就业稳定是毁灭性的的打击。因为比起那些有固定工作的人来说，这些临时工的效率更低，并且雇主也不愿意为这些临时工投资。相对于其它欧洲国家而言，而某种鼓励企业雇佣长工的做法会降低遣散费的水平。Nor has much been done for the 3.5m people who have been jobless for more than a year, says Marcel Jansen of Madrids Autnoma University. Many are poorly educated: Spain has one of the highest school drop-out rates in the OECD. Those with qualifications often find that they are not the ones employers want. 据马德里自治大学的马塞尔杨森成，至少350万人失业超过一年，并且其中的很多人都没受过多少教育：西班牙是OECD中辍学率最高的国家之一。而那些有学历的人常常发现他们并不是雇主想要雇佣的人。The answers, says Mr Jansen, include spending more on retraining and overhauling state-run employment offices, which do a poor job of matching workers skills with local employers needs. The government has tightened rules for people receiving unemployment benefit to encourage them to look for work or to take training courses. But they need to be effectively enforced. 詹森先生说，解决这些问题的办法要包括花费更多进行业务培训，并且还要整顿国营就业办公室，因为国营办公室在引导工人习得雇主所需技能方面做得并不好。政府已经用法规对那些领取失业津贴的人们进行束缚，并鼓励他们找工作或者参加培训课程。但是这些政策得有效执行才行。The government could lower the cost of hiring workers by cutting social-security contributions, which are high by European standards. A rise in value-added tax could pay for that. Others advocate lowering the minimum wage for unskilled workers. 政府可以通过削弱社会保障金来降低雇佣工人的费用，因为这个社保金水平的标准是根据欧盟标准所制定的。增值税的上涨会为此买单。而也有一些人主张用降低非技术工人的最低工资的方式来降低成本。Mr Rajoy says he will not let up on reform until Spains unemployment plague becomes merely a “sad” episode in history. He has started talks with unions and employers on a package of job-friendly measures, to be hammered out after the summer break. But with elections looming, few expect it to be bold. 拉霍伊表示，除非西班牙的大规模失业造就历史上绝无仅有的一个“绝望”时代，否则他不会减缓改革的脚步与力度。拉霍伊已经开始与工会和雇主就就业友好型措施的一揽子计划进行谈判，其结果将在夏休后一锤定音。但是随着西班牙大选的临近，几乎没有人希望这个改革可以莽撞继续下去。2015-08-03乌克兰东部 战争持续伤亡增多Eastern Ukraine 乌克兰东部Fighting on 坚持战斗As the battle continues and the death toll mounts, the West imposes more sanctions 战争持续，伤亡增多，西方国家加强制裁THE two presidents could not have offered a greater contrast. Announcing new sanctions against Russia on July 16th, Americas Barack Obama read a prepared statement and took no questions. Minutes later, Russias Vladimir Putin staged an off-the-cuff press conference in Brazil to assail the sanctions legitimacy. He let emotion take hold, reaching a crescendo during a riff about the “tears of mothers, widows and orphans” in Ukraine. 两位总统都无法达成更好的协议。7月16日美国总统巴拉克奥巴马宣读了准备好了的声明，宣布对俄罗斯的新制裁并不回应任何问题。几分钟之后，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京在巴西举行了即席记者招待会来质疑制裁的合法性。他在说到乌克兰“母亲、遗孀和孤儿的眼泪”等反复出现的字节时被情绪影响，音量逐渐加强。The new sanctions come at a crucial juncture in Ukraines war. The death toll, both civilian and military, is rising as the fighting creeps into Donetsk and Luhansk, eastern Ukraines two biggest cities. Russia has not stopped its support for rebel forces, and has even ramped up equipment transfers following the fall of rebel-held Sloviansk two weeks ago. Kiev has implicated Moscow in the recent downing of two Ukrainian military aircraft. After an air strike demolished an apartment block in the city of Snizhne on July 15th, Ukrainian officials called it a Russian provocation, saying none of their planes took off that day. That would imply Russia sending a jet more than 20 kilometres (12 miles) across the border to bomb a residential neighbourhood and poison opinion against Kiev, a cynical notion even for Mr Putin. But to blame Ukraine is to accept that the countrys armed forces are dangerously incompetent or stunningly cruel. Neither version suggests the conflict will abate soon. 新的制裁正好出现在乌克兰战争的关键点上。平民和军方的死亡总人数因为乌克兰东部两个最大的城市顿涅茨克和卢汉斯克战火蔓延而不断增加。俄罗斯并没有停止对乌克兰叛军的支持，甚至在两周前叛军控制的斯洛伐克沦陷后，将转让的装备提升了。基辅因最近两家乌克兰军用飞机的坠毁与莫斯科纠缠不清。在7月15日一架飞机撞毁了一栋位于斯尼日内的公寓楼后，乌克兰官方称之为俄罗斯的挑衅，并称乌克兰的飞机在那天均没有起飞。这就意味着俄罗斯派遣了一架飞机越过边境线至少20千米（约合12里），向邻国住宅区投放炮弹，并且刻意抹黑基辅，这即使对普京来讲也过于愤世嫉俗。但是怪罪乌克兰就是承认这个国家的武装力量过于不称职或者惊人的残忍。不论是哪个版本的说法都表明矛盾不会很快结束。The main targets of the new sanctions are two prominent banks (Vneshekonombank and Gazprombank ) and two energy firms (Novatek and Rosneft). The sanctions do not yet cut the companies off from international business or block their assets. Instead, they restrict access to American debt and equity markets, barring loans of more than 90 days maturity. Eight defence firms, a few individuals and a Crimean shipping firm face more traditional asset freezes. The European Union has promised to follow suit, with the names of “entities and persons” affected to be released shortly. 新制裁的主要目标是两个主要的银行（Vneshekonombank和 Gazprombank）和两个能源公司（Novatek和Rosneft）。但制裁并没有切断这些公司与国际商务的关系，也没有冻结它们的资产。相反，它们只是限制进入美国债券和股票市场，禁止借贷超过90天的贷款。八家防务公司，少数个体公司和一家克里米亚半岛的船运公司面临着更加传统的资产冻结问题。欧盟承诺也会跟着美国做，取名为“实体与个人”并且会很快产生影响。The sanctions effect will depend on whether Mr Putin finds that another blow to his countrys wobbly economy hurts more than one to his pride. So far he has bridled, saying the decision would have a “boomerang effect” and that American-Russian relations were being driven to a “dead end”. In any case the fighting in eastern Ukraine has taken on a momentum beyond his control. Kievs “anti-terrorist operation” is alienating locals. Since the fighting began three months ago, 478 civilians killed, and 1,392 have been wounded. The anger on the ground may be creating conditions for what Alexander Golts, an independent Moscow-based defence analyst, calls “a long partisan war”. 制裁的效果取决于普京能否对俄罗斯摇摇欲坠的经济伤害甚于对他本人骄傲的打击。到目前为止他对此表示不屑一顾，并称决议将会产生“回旋效果”，并且美俄关系将会进入“死胡同”。无论如何乌克兰东部的战争已经超出它的控制范围了。基辅的“反恐作战”正使当地人疏远。自从3个月前战争开始，478名平民死亡，1392名平民受伤。现场的愤怒可能会将情形变为莫斯科国防分析师亚历山大高斯所说的“长期党派战争”。The rebels attitude is “victory or death”. At one militias base on the edge of Donetsk, where shelling has ravaged residential areas, three weary soldiers take cover in a bomb shelter. “People dont fully comprehend what is happening,” says one, referring to stunned locals who peek out of their windows when they hear the sounds of battle. He might have been speaking of the outside world. At another base, away from the fighting, few think it will stop soon. “Its not fucked up,” says Maksim, giving a soldiers assessment. “Its completely fucked up.” A brawny ex-paratrooper, he once served in the same Ukrainian army he now fights against. He promises to stand till the end. 叛军的态度是“不成功便成仁”。在一个民兵组织驻扎的顿涅茨克的边境，那里的炮击已经摧毁了居民区，3名疲惫不堪的士兵躲在一个防空洞里。“人们并不能完全明白繁盛了什么。”一名士兵说道，指的是震惊的当地人在听到战争的声音时还透过窗子偷看。他或许一直都在说外面的世界。在另一个远离战争的基地中，几乎没人认为这会很快结束。“这还没到一团糟的地步。”马克西姆在给一位士兵做评估时说。“这已经是一团糟了。”一位强壮的前任伞兵说，他曾服役于他现在攻击的同一支乌克兰军队。他保证不到最后一刻绝不倒下。2015-08-05北欧掌控 一次斯堪的纳维亚狂潮The Nordics in charge 北欧掌控A Scandinavian wave 一次斯堪的纳维亚狂潮How the Nordics get so many senior international positions 北欧为何拥有众多较高的国际职位WHEN it comes to international jobs, Scandinavia does well. Sweden, Denmark and Norway have only 20m people, yet their nationals often run global organisations. Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, is taking over from a former Danish prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as NATOs boss. Thorbjorn Jagland, another former Norwegian prime minister, has just won a second term at the Council of Europe. Now attention is on the current Danish prime minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, who is a front-runner to succeed Belgiums Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Council. 说到国际工作，斯堪的维纳亚（在地理上是指斯堪的纳维亚半岛，包括挪威和瑞典，文化与政治上则包含丹麦）表现算是个中翘楚。尽管瑞典、丹麦和挪威仅有2千万人口，他们的公民却掌舵者全球组织。挪威前首相 Jens Stoltenberg正接棒前丹麦首相Anders Fogh Rasmussen成为北约的领袖。另一位挪威的前首相Thorbjorn Jagland则刚刚于欧洲议会选举中赢得了第二任期。现今关注的是当前丹麦首相Helle Thorning-Schmidt能否继任比利时的 Herman Van Rompuy成为欧洲理事会主席。With the European Unions foreign-policy chief and the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, this job should be filled at an EU summit on July 16th, after the European Parliament confirms Luxembourgs Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission president. Ms Thorning-Schmidt has disavowed any interest, saying she hopes to lead the Social Democrats to another election win next year. But Mr Fogh Rasmussen played a similarly oblique game in 2009, repeatedly denying any interest in NATO. Afterwards he claimed that “being a candidate” and “canvassing” were separate. Ms Thorning-Schmidts real drawback is that Denmark is not in the euro. But as a woman from the centre-left, she balances Mr Juncker. She is also married to the son of Neil Kinnock, a former British Labour leader and European commissioner. 有了欧盟的外交政策首脑和众欧洲集团财政部长领导的推动下，这件工作会在欧洲议会明确来自卢森堡的Jean-Claude Juncker接任欧洲理事会主席之后，于7月16日在欧盟峰会上宣布结果。Thorning-Schmidt显然已失去任何兴趣，她表示，她希望能够带领SD党赢得明年选举的胜利。但Fogh Rasmussen在2009年曾玩过类似的把戏，也曾一度声称对北欧不再关心。后来他表示“成为一名候选人”和“为自己拉票”这两者是相互独立的。对Thorning-Schmidt来说真正的劣势是丹麦并不属于欧元集团。但是作为一名中左派的女士，他与Juncker旗鼓相当。她也已经同前英国工党领袖和欧盟委员Neil Kinnock的儿子成婚。Other politicians are less coy. Finlands former centre-right prime minister, Jyrki Katainen, has stepped down to seek a big international job. He is now interim economics commissioner (replacing another Finn, Olli Rehn), and he might stay on or take the Eurogroup job. Swedens foreign minister (and another former prime minister), Carl Bildt, is a possibility for the foreign-policy post, though some find him too abrasive. 其他的政治家就没那么扭捏作态。芬兰前中右派首相Jyrki Katainen已为一份优渥的国际工作而辞职。如今他是临时的经济专员（替代了另一位芬兰人Olli Rehn），而且她很可能留任或是接手欧元集团的工作。瑞典的外交部长（也是另一位前首相）Carl Bildt，很可能上任外交政策的职位，尽管有人发现他行事并不谨慎。What gives the Nordics a head start? One answer is that they are unthreatening to big countries . Another is that a history of parliamentary compromise gives them the ability to cross ideological divides. It has been a long time since any Nordic country had a single-party majority government. Mr Katainens 2011-14 cabinet was a six-party patchwork. Yet there is a limit to how many Nordics the world can absorb. No matter how perfect they are, not all will win prizes. 到底是什么给予了北欧这样的优势？一种解释是他们对大国并无威胁。另一种是议会的妥协给了他们跨越意识上分裂的可能性。距北欧国家建立一个多党合作的政府到现在已经有很长时间了。2011-14年Katainen的内阁曾由六党组合而成。然而对于这个世界能接受多少北欧人还是存有一定限制。无论他们有多完美，也不可能人人获胜。2015-08-06意大利非法移民 地中海发生耸人听闻的惨案Italys illegal immigrants 意大利非法移民Tidal wave 海啸More horrific deaths in the Mediterranean 地中海发生耸人听闻的惨案FEW images of immigrant traffic across the Mediterranean have been as harrowing. Italian TV viewers this week saw the lifeless bodies of 45 African men being lifted, like animal carcasses, from the hold of a fishing boat in which they had tried to reach Europe. Others on the vessel said the men begged to be let out but, for fear of it capsizing, they were forcibly kept below and suffocated. 每次发生在地中海的移民惨案都令人异常痛心。这周，意大利电视台播报了一组新闻。54个非洲人乘坐一艘渔船想前往欧洲，却不想在船上命丧黄泉。船上的人说这些人祈求将他们放出来，但是为了防止船只颠覆，他们被关在舱底窒息而死。Around 5,000 people were picked up by patrol boats on June 28th-29th, the busiest weekend of the year so far. On July 2nd another 70 migrants were reported lost at sea in a separate incident. All this comes after Italy began a search-and-rescue effort called Operation Mare Nostrum, in response to the tragedy last October in which 360 people drowned off Lampedusa, an island half-way between Sicily and the North African coast. On July 1st the police arrested five Eritreans who prosecutors said were part of a ring, with bases in Sudan, Libya and Italy, that arranged the latest ill-fated journey. In a wiretapped phone call, one was heard disowning responsibility for their deaths because “it was their fate”. 6月28、29日两天，巡逻船逮捕了大约5000人，这是今年截至目前最忙碌的一周。7月2日，据报道70个移民在另一场事故中葬身海底。这些都是在意大利开始称作地中海运营条例的搜救工作之后发生的。该项搜救工作是针对去年十月份360人在蓝佩杜萨岛（意属地中海岛屿，位于西西里岛和北非海岸之间）溺亡的事件提出的。7月1日，警察逮捕了5名厄立特里亚人。其检察官说这些人属于一个组织，基地在苏丹、利比亚和意大利，就是他们策划了近期的这些惨案。警察通过窃听器听到其中一个人说否认将他人致死的罪行，因为“这就是他们的命运”。The latest horrors produced more agonised hand-wringing, but no sign that Italian or European Union leaders are any closer to agreeing what should be done. Mare Nostrum completed a U-turn for a country that until 2011 blocked immigrants at sea, returning many to Libya, their main point of departure. Some Italians believe this policy deterred people from attempting the perilous crossing, whereas Mare Nostrum encourages them. Matteo Salvini, leader of the xenophobic Northern League, said Italys prime minister, Matteo Renzi, and his interior minister, Angelino Alfano, were “stained with blood”. 最近的恐怖事件引起了更多令人苦恼的绝望情绪，但是意大利或欧盟领导人对应做的措施没有表现出明确的赞同意向。地中海国家的态度有了180度的大转弯，直至2011年，它们拦截了海上的移民，大多数都遣返回到了利比亚人们主要想逃离的国家。有些意大利人认为这项政策阻止人们尝试这项危险的越境行动，另一方面又在鼓励他们。排外北方战线联盟的领导人Matteo Salvini表示意大利总理Matteo Renzi和司法部长安杰利诺阿尔法诺“双手沾满了鲜血”。It is true that, since Operation Mare Nostrum began, arrivals in Italy have soared (more than 65,000 so far this year, against around 8,000 in the first half of 2013). But Greece also saw a large rise, of 142%, in the first four months of 2014, as fighting in Syria intensified. The “cruel to be kind” argument for returning migrants has become harder to sustain as Libya lurches from dictatorship to anarchy. 自从地中海运营条例开始投入实施，意大利的移民人数确是激增（2013年的上半年只有大约8000人，而今年目前已经超过65000人）。而在叙利亚内战激烈进行时，希腊的移民人数也是大幅上涨，2014年的前四个月增长率高达142%。随着利比亚独裁政权解体陷入无政府状态，就遣返移民的“善良就是残忍”的话题很难得到人们的认同。In ever harsher tones, Italian officials have protested that the EU is not helping enough. Mr Alfano has threatened unspecified reprisals if Cecilia Malmstrom, the European commissioner responsible, skips a meeting in Rome to launch Italys six-month EU presidency. But the real obstacles to burden-sharing lie not in Brussels but in national capitals. Italian efforts to put immigration at the top of the agenda for last months EU summit came to nought. 意大利官员以发表了更激烈的言辞，抗议欧盟帮助不够。阿尔法诺曾威胁欧盟称如果欧洲委员会的负责人马姆斯壮不出席在罗马举行的意大利6个月的欧盟轮值主席国的就任会议的话，将对其进行报复。但是真正的分担负担的障碍并非来自布鲁塞尔，而是在国家资本。上个月欧盟峰会上，意大利将移民提上日程的头号事件的努力无济于事。Italys partners argue that they deal with proportionately far more asylum-seekers. In the fourth quarter of 2013 Germany received proportionally three times as many applications as Italy. But none of the others is mounting, for humanitarian reasons, a naval operation comparable to Operation Mare Nostrum. The cost, initially put at 1.5m ($2m) a month, has exploded to 9.5m. As it grows, the Italian government can expect to come under mounting pressure from public opinion to use its EU presidency to force the club to lend it a hand. 意大利的伙