运营风险管理（波兰华沙大学）.ppt

运营风险管理,波兰华沙大学,Programme,Aimsandobjectives:TogiveanintegratedperspectiveonoperationalriskmanagementToenhancebasicskillsofriskmanagementdevelopmentprogrammesKeytopics:KeyconceptsofoperationalriskmanagementRiskresearchandassessmentRiskmanagement,Traditionalriskmanagementdealswithuncertaintyofmarkets,NASDAQStockExchange,BurstofNewEconomy,BoomofNewEconomy,Whytomanagerisk?,OnlyfewoperationalplansrunaccordingtotheinitialschedulesandotherassumptionsThereisnothinglikeanoperationalprogrammefreeofrisks.Apartofbusinesschallengecomesoutfromtheriskbehindthem.Therearemanypowersworkingagainstyourplans.Manywillenjoyyourfalldown.Sometimestheoperationalmanagementrequiresunlikelydecisions,whentheunexpectedoccurs.Itisnotpossibletoforecastandprogrammeaconvenientreactionagainstanyrisk.Howeveragoodmanagerhowtoadapthisplanstomeettherisks.Thereisaverynarrowgapbetweenfoolishnessandareasonableriskanditoutcomesfromagoodunderstandingofpotentiallossesandacceptedriskfortheownerandparticipantsoftheprogrammeorproject.Businessislikeagame.Veryoftenawinnersgrabsthewholepool.Doyoulacktheluck,ormaybeyouareunprofessional?Adaptordie!,Effectsofbusinessprojects,RealityWhatiscommonfortheseprojects/programmes?,EurotunnelMillenniumBugBarringsBank(tradeofderivatives)IRIDIUMcellularnetworkProjectBlue,Whatisrisk?,RiskofunlikelyeventsorcircumstancesRiskisrelatedtotheuncertaintyRiskmanagementincludes:concepts,recommendations,procedures,methodsandtechniques,organisationalstructures,methodologies,whichmayreduceoreliminatetheeffectsofunlikelyeventsorcircumstances,Majorerrorsofestimationoftherisk-profitratio,CaseI:Aproject,whichistooriskyorcostlyisbeingruntoitsend(Eurotunnel).Effect:significantlylowerriskorlossorevencrash.CaseII:Aprojectrejected,whichpromisedreasonableriskandexceptionalprofit(KNEX).Effect:winofacompetitor.,PersonalapproachestoriskDangerouscharactersandpersonalities,AlergicallyreactingtoriskDrug-dependentpeopleIgnorantThose,forwhomthereisnoproblem”uptotheend,AssessmentofriskoccurrencePatternscale,ScaleofriskeffectsPattern,MapofriskTwo-dimensionalmatrixofriskestimationP-E,AcceptableriskFuzzyconcept,Differentperspectivesonrisk,ClientSponsorClientsownerCompanyCompanysownerInsuringcompanyManagement(legalresponsibility)SubcontractorsEmployeesCompetitorsGovernment,localauthoritiesetc.Publicopinion,Morphologyofrisk,RISK,Probability,Factors,Outcomes,Effects,Reasons,Causingevents,Prevention,Reaction,Modelofriskmanagementprocess,ReportingEscalationControlDecisions,Aggregation,Monitoring,Performance,Identification,Analysis,Planning,Majorwaystoreactagainstrisk,PreventionTransferofriskoritseffectstoothers(partner,insurance,forfeiting,factoring,otherthirdparties)Compensationofrisk(derivatives:forwards/futures/options,paralleltransactions)Diversification/distributionofriskContingenciesPreventive/correctingactionsandproceduresNoreactionacceptanceofpotentialeffects,Contingenciesagainstrisk,PricemarginBalancesheet/budgetCash-flowLead-timeMaterialsandcapacities(activeorpassive),Keystepsofriskmanagement,Identificationofrisks(reasons,outcomes,effects)Analysisofrisks(probabilities,effectsetc.)RisksmappingProgrammingofpreventingandcorrectingactivities(analysisandevaluationofpotentialvariants):EliminationandreductionofriskimpactsProgrammingofmaterial,organisational(includingpreventiveandcorrectingprocedures)andfinancialcontingenciesInsuranceandcompensationofriskImplementationofthenewcomponentsofriskmanagementProcessesandenvironmentmonitoringReacting:initiationofcorrectingprocedures,Planningofriskmanagement,Foreachplannedactivity/operation/process:Identifyrisk,assessprobabilityofoccurrenceAnalyseriskfactors(reasons,causingevents,symptoms!)IdentifypossiblepreventiveandcorrectingactionsIdentifyapplicablecontingenciesAssesseffectivenessofpreventiveandcorrectingactionsandcontingenciesSelectthebesttoolsImplement(plans,procedures,priorities,documentation,monitoring,resources,finance),Keyprinciplesofriskmanagement,Itsacontinuousprocess,usingoutputsofoperationsandenvironmentmonitoringRiskmanagementshouldbeintegratedwithorevenincorporatedintooperationsmanagementPreventiveandcorrectingactionsshouldbeprogrammedStandardisation(e.g.scalesofrisks)Riskauditsshouldbeincorporatedintocompanyaudits,ResponsibilitiesofriskmanagerRiskmanageristheowneroftheriskproblem,ManagementofriskanalysisManagementofprogrammingofpreventiveandcorrectingactivitiesSupervisionofriskmonitoring(milestones!)ControlandsupervisionofpreventiveandcorrectingactivitiesRiskescalationproceduresSupervisionofriskrelatedschedules,budgets,resourcesetc.Supervisionofriskrecords,Keypartiesofriskmanagement,Operations/ProjectManagerRiskAdministratorFinancialmanager/ChiefAccountant/TreasurerBank/Insurancecompany/BrokerLawyerRiskmanagerMarketingmanagerClientEngineerAuthorities,Keydocumentsofriskmanagement,Workingdocuments:MapsofrisksScenarios,CEDACdiagramsFinancialassessmentofrisksRisksrecordsCalculationsofsafetyfundsandcontingenciesPlans-recordsofpreventiveandcorrectiveactivitiesRiskrelatedorganisationalproceduresDocumentationrelatedtoinsuranceandcompensationofrisks,Reportingofrisk,MajorrisksRisksdistributionSignificantchangesofthelevelofrisksEscalationreportsActivitiesCostsCurrentestimationofrequiredbudgetsforcorrectingactions,Methodologiesforriskmanagement,Whattheyoffer:ChecklistofriskreasonsandfactorsConsistentmethodsforriskassessmentRecords,databasesPatternproceduresConsistentreporting,Riskmanagementinsomeprojectmanagementmethodologies,Majorfieldsofbusinessrisk,Operations:InternalRisksrelatedtodeliveriesandsuppliersRisksrelatedtocustomersRisksrelatedtosubcontractorsInvestmentsFinancialactivities,Majorfactorsofexternalrisks,MarketLawe.g.flexible(multilevel)budgets,nottoomanyrigidproceduresetc.Standardlead-times,stressoncompressionoflead-timesHighmorale,changeculture,learningorganisation,utilisationofintellectualcapitaletc.,Otherorganisationalmethodsagainstrisks,Organisationalsensitivityquickescalationofrisksymptoms(e.g.attackson:PearlHarbour,undergroundinTokyo,11SeptemberattackonUSA.)Poka-yokeclones:ControlVisualisation/signalisingPreventionCorrection,Duediligence,Processofproving,thattheprojects/planswerebeingfulfilledinacompetentwayandwithrelevantdiligenceDuediligenceprovesshouldjustify,thatallreasonablemeasuresagainstriskshavebeenapplied,andtheeffectsofriskswerenotbeencausedbyanyonesindolenceDuediligenceprovesmaybeusedduringlegalproceduresrelatingtoformalresponsibilities:internalorexternal(includingcourts),Symptomsofefficientriskmanagement,ClosedrisksRisksmovedtorightontheriskmapsLowexpendituresoncorrectingactivitiesLowlossescausedbyrisks,WhatshouldbeavoidedUnreasonablemanagementisalwayscostly!,Toosophisticatedriskmanagement,asusuallyoccurswiththenewmanagementconcepts,mayresultinenormousexpensesonconsultingParkinsonlawisalwaysvalid!ArtificialactivitiesmayoccurwithintheriskmanagementaswellThebasicdangerforthecompanyisitsmanagementincompetence,Possibledirectionsofresearch,Theoretical:applicationsoffuzzysetsandroughsetstheoriestotheriskcalculuspatternsofscenarioanalysisAIbasedconcepts(e.g.simulationofrisksexplosions)Empirical:statisticalresearch(e.g.impactoforganisationalprocedures)benchmarkingorientedresearchImplementationsoriented:branchorientedmethodologiesinformationsystems,Recommendedreadings,AdamsJ.,Risk,U