中国中西医结合杂志

Bioterrorism:InvestigationFlorida,Washington,DCarea,NewYorkCity/ConnecticutInvestigationlaunchedimmediatelywith1stvictim(FLmedia),closedAugust2008withpurportedidentificationofsuspect(Ivins,USAMRIID)7-yearinvestigation;estimated$1Bdirect/indirectmeasurablecosts;terror/fear/uncertainty;massiveinvestmentsinnewbiosecurityRrealizationofmanyvulnerabilitiesandshortfalls(manyremain),Confirmationthat“alittlecangoalongway(makeabigmess)”,ElementsoftheCrimes,WasaCrimeCommitted?Microbeusedasaweaponwithdeliverysystem,couldnothaveoriginatedfromnaturalcontaminationoraccidentResultedindeathandillnessDamagetoandmisuseofGovernment-ownedpropertyandinfrastructure.ViolationsofFederallaw(Indictment,Prosecution)TerrorismMisuseofbiologicalagents(BiologicalWeaponsAntiterrorismstatute)Homicideandattemptedhomicide“Property”and“misuse”elementsInterstateelements.(hereswheretheprosecutorswouldhave“piledon”),CourseoftheInvestigation,NumerousAvenuesPursuedTraditionalInvestigation,Positive/NegativeIntelligenceandForeign,Positive/NegativeScientific/ForensicNumerousTwists,Turns,DeadEnds;ExternalSpeculation,DistractionsandStimuliScience(Ostensibly)ProvidesVitalLinkandAidsinNarrowingPossibleSuspectsandSourcesof“MicrobeofInterest”:Qsamples(atleasttwobatches)letters,victims,mailbox,sitestoDugwayandUSAMRIIDInvestigationFocusesonLimitedNumberofPossibleSuspects(ProcessofElimination/Inclusion)Ivins,StandardsofProofinUSSystem,NoCauseorSuspicionReasonableSuspicion(Events/Circumstances,Contacts,Interviews/Interrogation,Non-IntrusiveMethodsNoExpectationofPrivacy)ProbableCause(ArrestandSearchWarrants,Orders)BeyondAReasonableDoubt(Trial,Conviction:WhatDoesaReasonableJurorBelieve?),InvestigationisaProcessWhichSeeks,Gathers,Develops,Analyzes,Weightsand“Packages”PositiveandNegativeInformationandEvidenceToExoneratetheInnocentandProsecuteandConvicttheGuiltyEvidenceisAdditiveandSubtractive,ReinforcingandConflicting;AnalyticalandInterpretativeProcessisPrimarilyNotQuantitative,RatherQualitativeandReliesonHumanJudgment,WhatWeThinkWeKnow(1)FromaffidavitinsupportofasearchwarrantforIvinshouse,threevehiclesandasafedepositbox,Attimeofattacks,Ivinswascustodianofhighlypurifiedanthraxthatisgenetically“identical”totheanthraxanalyzedfromtheattacks(solecustodianofstockculturesince1997whenoriginated;freeaccesstosuiteatUSAMRIIDwherestockculturekept)NosatisfactoryexplanationprovidedforIvinslatenightlaboratoryaccesscontemporaneouswiththeattacksIvinsclaimedthathewassufferingfromseriousmentalhealthissuesinthemonthsprecedingtheattacks(toco-worker:“incredibleparanoid,delusionalthoughtsattimes”)IvinsbelievedtosubmitfalsesamplesofanthraxforforensicanalysistomisleadinvestigatorsAttimeofattacks,IvinswasunderpressuretoassistcompanywhichproducedanthraxvaccineandhadlostFDAapproval;believedvaccineessentialforforceprotectionIvinssentemailcontemporaneouswithattackswithlanguagesimilartomailedletterscontaininganthraxIvinsandwifereportedlyhadissueswithSens.LeahyandDaschle;Ivinshadobsessionwithsorority,sororityofficeinPrincetonnearmailboxusedformailings,WhatWeThinkWeKnow(2)ScientificEvidencePubliclyBriefedsilicon“signature”notpreviouslydescribedforB.anthracisWild-typeB.anthracisAmes,withsignificantnumbersofphenotypicvariants(substrains);“Unique”phenotypicvariantscouldbedetectedby4indelpolymorphismsOf1070inknownAmescultures(16U.S.labs,Canada,Sweden,U.K.),8containedallfourpolymorphisms,nonehadthreeoutoffour,fewcontainedoneortwo;of8thatcontainedallfour,allofthe8withallfourpolymorphismsweredirectlyrelatedtoasingleAmesculture(RMR-1029)PresenceofB.subtilisascontaminantinonesetoflettersbutnottheother,suggestingtwoseparateculturingevents;geneticanalysisofB.subtilisdemonstrateddissimilaritieswithotherknowncultures;RMR-1029indicatedassourceforB.anthracisinallQsamples(inferredbutnotstateddirectly)SourceofenvelopesusedinmailingsnarrowedtocertaindistributionsourcesandVirginiaandMaryland;proximitybetweensourceofenvelopesandsourceofanthraxOther“SporeswereproducedinnortheastU.S.”Traceevidence,tapeandinkavailableforcomparison(letters,mailbox),WhatWeDontKnoworHave:Examples,“Smokinggun”(notlikelyeverwill,noeyewitnessesnorIvinscaughtintheact)SpecificwhereaboutsofIvinsduringkeyeventsrelatedtoattacksInterviewsofallco-workers,associates,supervisors,laboratorymanagementInterviewsandinvestigationofallothersatUSAMRIIDwhohadaccesstoRMR-1029stockcultureandproximatelaboratoryfacilitiesInvestigationandinterviewsofthoseknowledgeableaboutandinpossessionoflaboratoryaccessschedules,securityprocedures,documentationDetailsofinvestigationconductedincommunity(neighborhood,church,etc)(somereportedinmedia)SurveillancelogsCooperatingwitnessinterviews,DocumentsLikelyForthcoming,CurrentlyUnderReviewbyFBIandDOJ,TheMediaandPolitics,Sevenyearparadeofspeculators,“experts”,conspiracytheorists,“forensicinvestigators”,investigativereporters(credentialed,non-credentialed),mostofwhomwerewrongallorinpart;culminatinginmediaflurrywiththeidentificationofIvinsasprimesuspectandsuicide.Criticallyassess:Whatarethedrivers,motivationsandagendasforthosewhorendered“expertise”andopinion?Varioushearings,particularlyrecentlywithidentificationofIvinsandlikelyclosingofcase:summary“FBIevidencenotconclusiveorconvincing,manyquestionsremainunanswered”Criticallyassess:Whatarethedrivers,motivationsandagendas?,MySkepticismof“Skeptics”and“TalkingHeads”,RelevantKnowledgeRelevantCredentialsRelevantExpertiseandExperiencePersonalAgendasPersonalandProfessionalMotivesPoliticalAgendasPersonalandProfessionalLiability,“ForensicScience101”,ForensicScience,ApplicationofscienceintheinvestigationoflegalmattersScientificknowledgeandtechnologyareusedtoserveaswitnessesinbothcriminalandcivil(intelligence)mattersSciencemaynotofferdefinitivesolutionsforallscenarios;itdoesprovideaspecialinvestigativeroleGoalis“attribution”i.e.,whocommittedthecrime,FourMissionAreas,PREVENTTerrorismbytacklingunderlyingcauses,PURSUETerroristsandthoseThatsponsorthem,PROTECTThepublicandNationinterests,PREPAREFortheconsequences,ToreducetheTHREAT,ToreduceVULNERABILITY,ToreducetheRISK,ForensicScienceisone“toolinthekit”,PhasesofForensicInvestigations,Intelligencevalidationguidelinesinpressnow;scientificpapersreAnthrax2001inpreparation,“reviewandacceptance”bycommunitypendingNoindependent,external,peerreviewofscience,results,conclusionsandvalidationtodate(NASreviewexpected)Fewcourtcasestodate,fewcaselawprecedentsNolegalchallengesorrulingstodatereadmissibilityofnovelscientificevidenceormethods,evidence,resultsorconclusionsattrial,GapsIdentified:ScientificWorkingGroupforMicrobialGeneticsandForensics,Effectivemethods/toolstoquicklyidentifywhen,where,how&bywhatmeans,anoutbreakhasoccurredAbilitytoquicklydiscernwhetheranoutbreakisnaturalorintentionalSimultaneoussampling&investigativecharacterization:forensicsepidemiologyAbilitytoquicklylocateandexploit“thecrimescene”Fullyunderstandtheapproachesandmethodsusedby“theperp”Labcapabilitiesthatmatchinvestigativequestions,MoreGapsIdentified:ScientificWorkingGroupforMicrobialGeneticsandForensics,Independentlyvalidatedmethodsandprotocols:samplecollectionthroughallanalyticpathways,andinterpretationExploitmicrobialandcontaminatedphysicalevidenceRobustqualityassurance&datacontrolsystemsUnderstandingofmicrobialdiversity&backgroundDefinitive&consistentmicrobialsystematics(phylogeny+taxonomy)Comparativegenomicsstudies,including“nearneighbors”“Post-genomics”,including“smallmolecules”NationalMicrobialStrainRepository,ForensicScience,BacteriologyMycology&Virology,Epidemiology,GenomicsMetagenomics,Ecology,AnalyticalChemistry&Biochemistry,Informatics,Biostatistics&PopulationGenetics,PlantPathology,BiomedicalSciences&PublicHealth,VeterinaryMedicine,MicrobialForensics,MaterialsScience,ProcessEngineering,FoodScience,Microscopy,Physics,DeepeningCross-DisciplinaryKnowledgeandEpisystemicCapabilities,MicrobialForensics:EmergingandFutureTechnologies,ThreatstoAddress?,Creative,EvenSubtleGeneticEngineeringBioprospecting,ExploitingNaturalDiversityGeneShuffling&DirectedEvolutionSmallFootprintDesign&ProductionSystemsCreativeDenialandDeceptionSyntheticBiology,Can“Passive”and“Active”MeasuresbeAnticipated?Developed?,Attribution:Effective,ReliableCapabilitiesforJusticeandPolicy,Multilevel,multidisciplinary“toolkit”ofdefined,supported,validatedanalyticalapproachesforfullexploitationof“evidentiary”samplesIntegratedapproachesthatenabledefinitiveanalysesthatarefullysupportiveofattribution,anddosoaccurately,responsively,adaptivelyanddefensiblyCapabilitiesbuiltuponwellvettedandproperlyappliedscienceandtechnology,withattributesandlimitsfullyunderstoodandcommunicableAgileleveragingandintegrationwithmatchedinvestigativeandintelligencecapabilitiesMethods,applicationsandexpertsthatcanwithstandrigorousscientific,legal,policyandpoliticalscrutiny,BW(WMD)Attribution:ASystemWhichDoesntYetCoherently&FullyExist,Science&Technology,Law&Policy,Operations,Investigation&Intelligence,Strategy,Plans&Doctrine,MicrobialForensicsandPolicy,Whatquantityandqualityofevidenceisneededtosupportnationalorglobalpolicydecisionsregardingillicitintentions,researchandpreparation,testing,anddeliveryofbiologicalweapons?Howmuchandwhatkindof“evidence”shouldberequiredtosupportwhatdecision?Whatshouldpolicymakersexpectofitsnationalorglobalmicrobialforensicscapabilities?Whatcontributioncanorshouldforensicsmaketonationalorglobalpolicydecisionsinvolvingbiologicalweapons/bioterrorism?Howshouldmicrobialforensicsresultsbebestintegratedwithotherformsofrelevantinformation(evidence)andintelligence?Howmuchreliancecanorshouldbeplacedonforensicevidenceandanalysisfordecisionsrelatedtoattributionand“prosecution”andwhat“standards”ordecisionframeworkshouldbeused?Cancompetentmicrobialforensicscontributetothedeterrenceofthepossession,development,