麦肯锡战略分析工具(英文版)

CONFIDENTIAL,BUStrategicPlanTemplateBook,Trainingmaterials8June2001,Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinseyitisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.,JimAyalaPHOMelissaGilPHOReginaManzanoPHOSureshMustaphaPHOSteveShawHKOShellyYehPHOChoon-GinTanSIO,1,STRATEGYPLANNINGINSTRUCTIONS,TheobjectiveofthesetemplatesistoprovidecompletenessandconsistencyofBUstrategicplansubmissions.ThesetemplatesarenotintendedtoreplaceorconstrainBUstrategicthinkingandshouldbeadaptedtoreflectaparticularBUssectoralcontextasrequiredEachsectionbeginswithasummarythatisbasedonasynthesisofquestionsandanalysesthatfollow.Thesuggestedapproachwouldbetofirstcompletetherelevantback-upanalysesandthenworktowardstheoverallsynthesis,2,TABLEOFCONTENTS,I.ExecutivesummaryII.EnvironmentalandinternalassessmentA.IndustrydynamicsanditsimplicationsB.CompetitiveassessmentC.InternalassessmentIII.StrategicdefinitionandimplicationsA.StrategyarticulationB.StrategicinitiativesC.FinancialprojectionD.Risks/contingenciesandstrategicalternativesIV.Exhibits,3,BUSTRATEGICPLANDEVELOPMENT,Industrydynamicsandimplications,Environmentalandinternalassessment,Competitiveassessment,Internalassessment,Whatarethemajorchangesinindustrydynamicsandresultingopportunitiesandrisks?,Whatareyourcompetitivestrengthsandweaknesses?,Howdoesyourcurrentbusinessemphasisfitwithindustryopportunityandcompetitivelandscape?,Strategyarticulation,Strategicdefinitionandimplications,Strategicinitiatives,Financialprojections,WhatstrategywillyourBUpursueoverthenext3years?,Whatwillbetheimpactofmajorstrategicinitiatives?,Whataretheexpectedfinancialreturnsofyourstrategy?,+,+,+,+,Risk/contingen-cies&strategicalternatives,Whatstrategicalternativeshaveyouconsidered?,+,4,I.EXECUTIVESUMMARY,Instructions:TheExecutiveSummaryprovidesasynthesisoftheEnvironmentalandInternalAssessmentsandtheresultantBUStrategicPlans,5,II.ENVIRONMENTALANDINTERNALASSESSMENT,6,IIA.INDUSTRYDYNAMICSANDIMPLICATIONSSUMMARY,A.Whatarethemajorchangesinindustrydynamicsandtheresultingopportunitiesandrisks?,A.2Howisindustrystructurechanging(demand,supply,andindustrychaineconomics)?Whataretheresultingopportunitiesandrisks?,A.3Whatistheexpectedcompetitorconduct?Whataretheresultingopportunitiesandrisks?,A.4Whatarethepresentandfutureexternalfactorsthatcouldpresentnewopportunitiesandrisks?,A.1Whatindustryareyoucompetingin?Whatarethevarioussegmentsintheindustry?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,7,IIA.INDUSTRYDYNAMICSANDIMPLICATIONSBACK-UP1,A.1Whatindustryareyoucompetingin?Whatarethevarioussegmentsintheindustry?,IndustrydefinitionIndustrysegmentationDefinitionSizing,Instructions:Exhibit1couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,Industrydefinition:,Industrysegmentation:,8,IIA.INDUSTRYDYNAMICSANDIMPLICATIONSBACK-UP2,A.2Howisindustrystructurechangingwithrespecttodemand,supply,andindustrychaineconomics?Whataretheresultingopportunitiesandrisks?,EconomicsofdemandBysegmentSubstitutes,abilitytodifferentiateVolatility,cyclicalityEconomicsofsupplyProducerconcentrationanddiversityImportcompetitionCapacityutilizationEntry/exitbarriersCoststructure(fixedandvariable)IndustrychaineconomicsCustomerandsupplierbargainingpower,Instructions:Exhibit2,3or4couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,9,IIA.INDUSTRYDYNAMICSANDIMPLICATIONSBACK-UP3,A.3Whatistheexpectedcompetitorconduct?Whataretheresultingopportunitiesandrisks?,MajorindustrycompetitormovesMarketinginitiativesIndustrycapacitychangesM&As,divestituresVerticalintegration/disaggregationAlliancesandpartnershipsCostcontrolandefficiencyimprovements,Instructions:Exhibit2,3or4couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,10,IIA.INDUSTRYDYNAMICSANDIMPLICATIONSBACK-UP4,A.4Whatarethepresentandfutureexternalfactorsthatcouldpresentnewopportunitiesandrisks?,ImpactandlikelihoodofmajorindustrydiscontinuitiesChangesinregulation/governmentpolicyTechnologicalbreakthroughs,Instructions:Exhibit2,3or4couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,11,IIB.COMPETITIVEASSESSMENTSUMMARY,B.Whatareyourcompetitivestrengthsandweaknesses?,B.1Whatarethecapabilitiesrequiredtosucceedinthisindustry?,B.2Howdoyoucompareagainstthesenecessarycapabilities?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,12,IIB.COMPETITIVEASSESSMENTBACK-UP1,B.1Whatarethecapabilitiesrequiredtosucceedinthisindustry?,Privilegedassetsthatcreatecompetitiveadvantage,e.g.physicalassets,location/”space”,distribution/salesnetwork,intangibleassets(intellectualcapital,network,brands,talents)Distinctiveskills/competenciesthatcreatecompetitiveadvantage,e.g.innovation,talentdevelopment,Instructions:Exhibit5couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,13,IIB.COMPETITIVEASSESSMENTBACK-UP2,B.2Howdoyoucompareagainstthesenecessarycapabilities?,Strengthsandweaknessesofyourcompetitivepositionvs.necessarycapabilitiesBenchmarkperformanceagainsttheindustrysrelevantkeyperformanceindicators(KPIs)*,withmarginandmarketshareastherequiredminimum,Strengthsandweaknessesofyourcompetitivepositionvs.necessarycapabilities:,BenchmarkperformanceagainsttherelevantindustrysKPIs:,Instructions:Exhibits6and7couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,Instructions:Exhibit8couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,*KPIsareahandfulofleversthatdrivethevalueoftheindustry/business,14,IIC.INTERNALASSESSMENTSUMMARY,C.Howdoesyourcurrentbusinessemphasisfitwiththeindustryopportunitiesandthecompetitivelandscape?,C.1Whichsegmentsofthebusinessareprovidingthehighestreturns?,C.2WhathavebeentheperformancetrendsalongmajorBUKPIs?,C.3Whichintangibleassets*couldbenear-termpotentialsourcesofvalue?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,*PleaserefertoExhibit12forfurtherdescription,15,IIC.INTERNALASSESSMENTBACK-UP1,C.1Whichsegmentsofthebusinessareprovidingthehighestreturns?*,RelevantBUsegments(basedoncustomer,product,geography,channel)Operatingcontributionestimatesforeachsegment,Instructions:Exhibit9couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,*Basedonlatestavailable,1-2yearhistoricalfinancialstatements,16,IIC.INTERNALASSESSMENTBACK-UP2,C.2WhathavebeenperformancetrendsalongmajorBUKPIs?,KPIperformancetrendsoverthelast3-5years,e.g.returnoncapitalemployed(ROCE),operatingincome,margins,capitalemployedAssessmentofunderlyingtrenddriversExpectedevolution,Instructions:Exhibits10and11couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,ROCE=Operatingincomex(1-taxrate)Allinterestbearingdebt(shortandlong)+minorityinterest+stockholdersequity,17,IIC.INTERNALASSESSMENTBACK-UP3,C.3Whichintangibleassetscouldbenear-termpotentialsourcesofvalue?,Identificationofin-houseintellectualproperty,talent,networks,brand/imageConversionintosourcesofvalue,Instructions:Exhibit12couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,18,III.STRATEGICDEFINITIONANDIMPLICATIONS,19,IIIA.STRATEGYARTICULATIONSUMMARY,A.WhatstrategywillyourBUpursueoverthenext3years?,A.1Wheretocompete?,A.2Whatisyourcustomervaluepropositionforthedifferentsegmentsyouaregoingtoserve?,A.3Whatisyourbusinessmodel?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,A.4Howdoesyourchosenstrategyexploitindustryopportunitiesandaddressindustry/competitivethreats?,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,20,IIIA.STRATEGYARTICULATIONBACK-UP1,A.1Wheretocompete?,Whereareyougoingtocompetealongthesedimensionsandwhy:TargetmarketDistributionchannelsProduct(breadthanddepth)Geographicscope,Instructions:Exhibit13couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,21,IIIA.STRATEGYARTICULATIONBACK-UP2,A.2Whatisyourcustomervaluepropositionforthedifferentsegmentsyouaregoingtoserve?,TargetcustomerdefinitionBenefitsthatyouwillofferthecustomersProductpricingPositionagainstcompetitionvis-visthebenefitsprovidedandthepricecharged,Whoisyourtargetcustomer?Whataretheexplicitbenefitsyouprovidetoyourcustomers?Whatperceivedvaluedoyouprovidetothecustomerbetterthancompetition?Howmuchvaluedoyourcustomersattachtothebenefitsyouprovide?,22,IIIA.STRATEGYARTICULATIONBACK-UP3,A.3Whatisyourbusinessmodel?,Deliveryandcommunicationofcustomervalueproposition(valuedeliverysystem)Competitiveadvantageindeliveringthesebenefitstothecustomer,Howwillthevaluepropositionbeprovidedandcommunicated?WhichofyourBUsexistingstrengthscanbeleveraged?Whatskills/capabilitiesdoyouneedtobuild?,Instructions:Exhibit15couldprovideausefulframeworkforansweringthisquestion,23,IIIA.STRATEGYARTICULATIONBACK-UP4,A.4Howdoesyourchosenstrategyexploittheindustryopportunitiesandaddresstheindustry/competitivethreats?,IndustryattractivenessandimplicationreviewAlignmentofstrategyandenvironmentalrealities,24,IIIB.STRATEGICINITIATIVESSUMMARY,B.Whatwillbetheimpactofmajorstrategicinitiatives?,B3.Howmuchvaluewillbecreatedfromeachstrategicinitiative?,B4.Whatresourceswilleachstrategicinitiativerequire?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,B1.Whatmajorstrategicinitiativesarerequiredtosuccessfullyimplementyourselectedbusinessmodel?,B2.Whatarethesourcesofvaluecreatedfromeachstrategicinitiative?,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,25,IIIB.STRATEGICINITIATIVESBACK-UP1,B.1Whatmajorstrategicinitiativesarerequiredtosuccessfullyimple-mentyourselectedbusinessmodel?,Possiblestrategicinitiativeslist,26,IIIB.STRATEGICINITIATIVESBACK-UP2,B.2Whatarethesourcesofvaluecreatedfromeachstrategicinitiative?,Sourcesofvaluefromeachstrategicinitiative(e.g.,EBIT,capitalemployed),Categoryofinitiatives,Volumeincrease,EBITimpactvia,Priceincrease,Costreduction,Other,Invest-ment,Capitalemployedimpactvia,Divest-ment,Capitalefficiency*,Other,*E.g.improvedworkingcapitalemployment,increasedassetutilization,changestoassetownership,Specificactionableinitiatives,27,IIIB.STRATEGICINITIATIVESBACK-UP3,B.3Howmuchvaluewillbecreatedfromeachstrategicinitiative?,one-timeEBITimpact=one-timecosts=,FinancialimpactfromeachstrategicinitiativeExpectedfinancialoutlayforeachinitiative,+,+,+,=,+,=,28,IIIB.STRATEGICINITIATIVESBACK-UP4,B.4Whatresourceswilleachstrategicinitiativerequire?,ResourcesrequiredtomakestrategyworkAvailabilityofresourcesintheorganizationPlanforfillingresourcegaps,Categoriesofinitiatives,Specificactionableinitiatives,People/skills,Resourcerequirements,Funding,Ex-Cominvolvement,29,IIIC.FINANCIALPROJECTIONSSUMMARY,C.Whataretheexpectedfinancialreturnsofyourstrategy?,C.3Whatisyourexpectedcashgenerationabilityoverthemediumterm?,C.4Whatisyourexpectedcapitalproductivity?,C.2Whatisyourprojectednetincomeinthenextfewyears?,C.1Whatarethekeyassumptions?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,30,IIIC.FINANCIALPROJECTIONSBACK-UP1,C.1Whatarethekeyassumptions?,Profitandloss(e.g.revenues,costs,margin)BalancesheetCorporatecenterdirectivesCorporatecenterassumptions,Instructions:Thesearetheminimumrequiredassumptions.FeelfreetoaddotherassumptionsrelevanttoyourBU,31,IIIC.FINANCIALPROJECTIONSBACK-UP2,C.2Whatisyourprojectednetincomeinthenextfewyears?,Incomestatementforecast,Instructions:Thesearetheminimumrequiredincomestatementaccountsandanalyses.FeelfreetoaddotheraccountsandanalysesrelevanttoyourBU,32,IIIC.FINANCIALPROJECTIONSBACK-UP3,C.3Whatisyourexpectedcashgenerationabilityoverthemediumterm?,Cashflowforecast,Instructions:Thesearetheminimumrequiredcashflowstatementaccounts.FeelfreetoaddotheraccountsrelevanttoyourBU,33,IIIC.FINANCIALPROJECTIONSBACK-UP4,C.4Whatisyourexpectedcapitalproductivity?,BalancesheetforecastROCEcomputation,ROCE=Operatingincomex(1-taxrate)Allinterestbearingdebt(shortandlong)+minorityinterest+stockholdersequity,Instructions:Thesearetheminimumrequiredbalancesheetaccountsandanalyses.FeelfreetoaddotheraccountsandanalysesrelevanttoyourBU,34,IIID.RISKS/CONTINGENCIES&STRATEGICALTERNATIVESSUMMARY,D.Whatstrategicalternativeshaveyouconsidered?,D.1Whataretheassociatedriskstoyourchosenstrategy?,D.2Re-examiningindustryopportunitiesandindustry/competitivethreats,whatalternativesexisttoyourchosenstrategy?,Instructions:Theanswertothisoverarchingquestionrequiresarecapitulationofthesectionsmainfindings,D.3Beyondthe3-yeartimeframe,whatbreakthroughstrategicoptionsmaybepossible?,Instructions:Thesesubsectionscontaina1-2sentencesummaryoftherelevantfindings,35,IIID.RISKS/CONTINGENCIES&STRATEGICALTERNATIVESBACK-UP1,D.1Whataretheassociatedriskstoyourchosenstrategy?,IdentificationofsignificantpotentialrisksandplanstomitigateSensitivity/scenariofinancialanalysis,Potentialrisks,Businessrisk,Regulatoryrisk,Technologyrisk,Integrityrisk,Macroeconomicrisk,Impact,Likelihood,Contingency,Other,36,IIID.RISKS/CONTINGENCIES&STRATEGICALTERNATIVESBACK-UP2,D.2Re-examiningindustryopportunitiesandindustry/competitivethreats,whatalternativesexisttoyourchosenstrategy?,Wheretocompete?ValuepropositionBusinessmodelAlignmentwithexternalrealities,Wheretocompete?:Alternativevalueproposition:Alternativebusinessmodel:Alignmentwithexternalrealities:,37,IIID.RISKS/CONTINGENCIES&STRATEGICALTERNATIVESBACK-UP3,D.3Beyondthe3-yeartimeframe,whatbreakthroughstrategicoptionsmaybepossible?,“Out-of-the-box”ideas,Instructions:Thinkradical!Thinkout-of-the-box!,38,IV.EXHIBITS,39,SEGMENTANALYSIS,Exhibit1,ILLUSTRATIVE,Industryboundaries,Segments,Industrysegments,Relativelydistinctsub-groupingswithintheindustryMarketisrelativelysimilarwithinthesegmentbutdifferentacrosssegmentsDifferentindustrydynamicsmayvaryinimportanceindifferentsegments,40,Producers,Industry,S,TechnologybreakthroughsChangesingovernmentpolicy/regulationsDomesticInternational,EconomicsofdemandAvailabilityofsubstitutesDifferentiabilityofproductsRateofgrowthVolatility/cyclicalityEconomicsofsupplyConcentrationofproducersImportcompetitionDiversityofproducersFixed/variablecoststructureCapacityutilizationEntry/exitbarriersIndustrychaineconomicsBargainingpowerofinputsuppliersBargainingpowerofcustomers,MarketingPricingVolumeAdvertising/promotionNewproducts/R&DDistributionCapacitychangeExpansion/contractionEntry/exitAcquisition/merger/divestitureVerticalintegrationForward/backwardintegrationVerticaljointventuresLong-termcontractsInternalefficiencyCostcontrolLogisticsProcessR&DOrganizationeffectiveness,FinanceProfitabilityValuecreationTechnologicalprogressEmploymentobjectives,Externalshocks,Feedback,tructure,C,onduct,P,erformance,STRUCTURE-CONDUCT-PERFORMANCE(SCP)MODEL,Exhibit2,41,Exhibit3,1.DeterminantsofsupplierpowerDifferentiationofinputsSwitchingcostsofsuppliersandfirmsintheindustryPresenceofsubstituteinputsSupplierconcentrationImportanceofvolumetosupplierCostrelativetototalpurchasesintheindustryImpactofinputsoncostordifferentiationThreatofforwardintegrationrelativetothreatofbackwardintegrationbyfirmsintheindustry,2.DeterminantsofbarrierstoentryEconomiesofscaleProprietaryproductdifferencesBrandidentitySwitchingcostsCapitalrequirementsAccesstodistributionAbsolutecostadvantagesProprietarylearningcurveAccesstonecessaryinputsProprietary,low-costproductdesignGovernmentpolicyExpectedretaliation,5.RivalrydeterminantsIndustrygrowthFixed(orstorage)cost/valueaddedIntermittentovercapacityProductdifferencesBrandidentitySwitchingcostsConcentrationandbalanceInformationalcomplexityDiversityofcompetitorsCorporatestakesExitbarriers,3.DeterminantsofbuyingpowerBargainingleverageBuyerconcentrationvs.firmconcentrationBuyervolumeBuyerswitchingcostsrelativetofirmswitchingcostsBuyerinformationAbilitytobackwardintegrateSubstituteproductsPull-through,4.DeterminantsofsubstitutionthreatRelativepriceperformanceofsubstitutesSwitchingcostsBuyerpropensitytosubstitute,2.Newentrants,3.Buyers,4.Substitutes,Intensityofrivalry,1.Suppliers,PricesensitivityPrice/totalpurchasesProductdifferencesBrandIdentityImpactonqualityperceptionBuyerprofitsDecisionmakersincentives,5.Industrycompetitors,FORCESATWORKFRAMEWORK,42,Opportunities/ThreatsHowaredemandandsupplyexpectedtoevolve?Howdoyouexpecttheindustrychaineconomicstoevolve?Whatarethepotentialmajorindustrydiscontinuities?Whatcompetitoractionsdoyouexpect?,YOURBU,SWOTANALYSIS,Exhibit4,CONVERTOPPORTUNITIES,BUILDONSTRENGTHS,NEUTRALIZETHREATS,ADDRESSWEAK-NESSES,Strengths/WeaknessesWhatareyourBUsassets/competenciesthatsolidifyyourcompetitiveposition?WhatareyourBUsassets/competenciesthatweakenyourcompetitiveposition?,Canbeusedasathoughtstarterforcompetitiveanalysisandinternalassessment,43,PhysicalassetLocation/spaceDistribution/salesnetworkBrand/reputationPatentRelationshipwithlicenseallocator,BHPslow-costminesTelecomm/mediacompanywithrightsradiospectrumAvonsrepresentativesCoca-ColaPharmaceuticalcompanywithawonderdrug”Favorednationstatuswithakeyministerinliberalizingeconomy,InnovationCross-functionalcoordinationMarketpositioningCost/efficiencymanagementTalentdevelopment,3MwithnewproductsMcDonaldswithQSC&VJ&JwithbrandedconsumerhealthproductsEmersonElectricsBestCostProducerprogramP&Gbrandmanagementprogram,Privilegedassets,Distinctivecompetencies,Necessarycapabilitiesinordertosucceedintheindustry,Example,CAPABILITYPLATFORM:ASSESSMENTOFSOURCESOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE(1/2),Exhibit5,44,CAPABILITYPLATFORM:ASSESSMENTOFSOURCESOFCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGE(2/2),ILLUSTRATIVE,Step1:Ensurethatthesearethecapabilitiesrequiredtosucceedintheindustry.Usethislistasathoughtstarter,addanddeleteasyouseeappropriate,BUOverall,Segments,A,B,C,Step2: