【精品论文】外文outward fdi from china and its policy context, 2012

OUTWARDFDIFROMCHINAANDITSPOLICYCONTEXT,2012BYKENDAVIESCHINASOUTWARDFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTOFDIHASCONTINUEDTOGROWDESPITETHEUNCERTAINGLOBALCLIMATEEMERGINGFROMTHERECENTCRISESTHELATESTFIVEYEARPLAN,WHICHCAMEINTOEFFECTIN2011,STRENGTHENSTHECOMMITMENTTOPROMOTETHE“GOINGGLOBAL”POLICYWHILETHECOUNTRYSOFDICONTINUESTOGOINTOTERTIARYANDPRIMARYSECTORS,THEREARESIGNSOFGRADUALSECTORALDIVERSIFICATIONASIA,ESPECIALLYHONGKONGCHINA,REMAINSTHELARGESCALEOFCHINESEINVESTMENT,WITHOFDIINSMALLERTARGETS,INCLUDINGEUROPE,GROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHECARIBBEANOFFSHORETAXHAVENSCONTINUETORECEIVELARGEAMOUNTSOFCHINESEOFDILLOCALAUTHORITIESINCHINAAREINCREASINGLYDOINGTHEIRBITTOFOSTERINVESTMENTABROADUNLESSTHEREAREANYMAJORADVERSECHANGESINDOMESTICANDEXTERNALCONDITIONS,CHINASOFDIISLIKELYTOCONTINUEEXPANDINGANDDIVERSIFYINGTRENDSANDDEVELOPMENTSCOUNTRYLEVELDEVELOPMENTSCHINASOFDISTOCKREACHEDUS298BILLIONBYTHEENDOF2010,WELLOVERTENTIMESTHEUS28BILLIONRECORDEDIN2000ANDFARABOVETHENEGLIGIBLEUS4BILLIONOF19901CHINAISALATEDEVELOPERINITSOUTWARDINVESTMENT,EVENAMONGLARGEEMERGINGMARKETSBRAZILHADOFDISTOCKOFUS41BILLIONIN1990,WAYAHEADOFCHINA,BUTFELLBEHINDWITHONLYUS181BILLIONIN2010CHINASOFDISTOCKISNOWLEVELWITHTHATOFSINGAPORE,WITHUS300BILLIONIN2010RUSSIASOFDISTOCKGREWMORERAPIDLYTHANCHINAS,REACHINGUS434BILLIONIN2010HAVINGGROWNRAPIDLYSINCETHEADOPTIONOFTHE“GOGLOBAL”POLICYATTHETURNOFTHECENTURY,CHINASFDIOUTFLOWSHAVECONTINUEDTORISEINRECENTYEARSDESPITETHEGLOBALFINANCIALANDECONOMICCRISESANDTHEWORLDWIDEPLUNGEINFDIFLOWSAFTERAMASSIVE132INCREASEFROMUS225BILLIONIN2007TOUS522BILLIONIN2008WHENGLOBALOFDIFLOWSFELLBY12,THEREWASAFURTHERINCREASE,ALTHOUGHLOWER,OF82IN2009TOUS565BILLIONASGLOBALOFDIFLOWSFELLBYAFURTHER38ASGLOBALOFDIFLOWSEDGEDUPTOUS13TRILLIONIN2010,CHINASROSEIMPRESSIVELYBY20OVERTHOSEOF2009,TOUS68BILLIONIN2010OVER79OFCHINASOFDISTOCKWASRECORDEDIN2010ASBEINGINVESTEDINTHETERTIARYSECTOR,THEMAINSUBSECTORSBEINGLEASINGANDCOMMERCIALSERVICES31OFTOTALOFDISTOCK,FINANCIALSERVICES13ANDWHOLESALEANDRETAILTRADE13THEPRIMARYSECTORCAMESECOND,WITH15OFTHETOTALIN2010,MINING,QUARRYINGANDPETROLEUMCOMPRISED14OFTOTALOFDISTOCKUNLIKEINTHECASEOFCHINASINWARDDIRECTINVESTMENT,OFDIINTHESECONDARYSECTORISARELATIVELYMINORCOMPONENTOFCHINASOFDI,MAKINGUPONLY6OFTHEOFDISTOCKIN2010THISPICTUREAPPEARSTOBECHANGING,HOWEVER,ASCHINASOFDIBECOMESMORESECTORALLYDIVERSIFIEDTHISISSUGGESTEDBYTHEOFDIFLOWSTATISTICSIN2010,FDIOUTFLOWSINTOMINING,QUARRYINGANDPETROLEUMFELLBY57FROMTHOSEIN2009,WHILETHOSEINTOMANUFACTURINGROSEBY108THEREIS,HOWEVER,ONECAVEATSINCEINVESTMENTS,ESPECIALLYTHOSEINNATURALRESOURCES,TENDTOBELARGEANDTHEREFOREGREATLYAFFECTEDBYTIMING,THEFLOWFIGURESAREALESSRELIABLEGUIDETOCHANGESINSECTORALDISTRIBUTIONTHANAREFIGURESONSTOCKSHOWEVER,EVENTHESECTORALDISTRIBUTIONASSHOWNBYFDISTOCKDATAMAYBEMISLEADINGFORINSTANCE,ITISPOSSIBLETHATSOMEPROPORTIONOFTHEINVESTMENTINTERTIARYSUBSECTORSSUCHASFINANCIALSERVICESANDLEASINGANDCOMMERCIALSERVICESMAYULTIMATELYBEDESTINEDFORUSEINMANUFACTURINGONEPOSSIBLEINDICATIONOFTHISISTHESECTORALDISTRIBUTIONOFCHINESEENTERPRISESINVESTINGOVERSEAS,WHICHGIVESADIFFERENTPICTURE,EVENTAKINGINTOACCOUNTVARYINGAVERAGESIZESOFINVESTMENTINTHEDIFFERENTSECTORSIN2010,THELARGESTPROPORTIONOFOUTWARDINVESTINGENTERPRISES29UNDERTOOKOUTWARDINVESTMENTINMANUFACTURING,WITHWHOLESALEANDRETAIL23COMINGSECONDANDLEASINGANDCOMMERCIALSERVICES13MOREOVER,EVENIFTHELARGERPROPORTIONOFENTERPRISESWITHOFDIINMANUFACTURINGHASNOIMPLICATIONSFORTHEVALUEOFFDIINMANUFACTURINGANDITSSHAREINTOTALCHINESEOFDIASWOULDBETHECASEIFTHEAVERAGEVALUEOFINVESTMENTSINMANUFACTURINGISCORRESPONDINGLYLOWERTHANTHATOFTHOSEINTHEPRIMARYSECTORORSERVICES,ITMAYHAVEIMPLICATIONSFOROTHERVARIABLES,SUCHASTHESHAREOFMANUFACTURINGINCHINESEMNESOVERSEASEMPLOYMENTORTHEIRSHAREOFEXPORTSFROMOVERSEASAFFILIATESASNOTEDINTHEFIRSTCOLUMBIAFDIPROFILEONOFDIFROMCHINATHESECTORALDISTRIBUTIONOFCHINASOFDIHASREMAINEDSTABLEINRECENTYEARS,BUTTHISSTABILITYMAYBEILLUSORYANDITISLIKELYTOGIVEWAYTOMAJORSHIFTSINCOMPOSITIONINCOMINGYEARSINTHEFUTURE,CHINESEFIRMSMAYALSODIVERSIFYTOWARDMANUFACTURINGTOSERVICEGLOBALCONSUMERGOODSMARKETSMOREDIRECTLY,ASMAYBEINDICATEDBYTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFOVERSEASINVESTINGCHINESEFIRMSDISCUSSEDABOVERECENTINVESTMENTSINSERVICES,ESPECIALLYINBANKING,WILLHAVEASTRONGCATALYZINGEFFECT,FACILITATINGBOTHTHEFURTHEREXPANSIONANDTHESECTORALDIVERSIFICATIONOFCHINASFDIITISALSODIFFICULTTOBUILDARELIABLEPICTUREOFTHEGEOGRAPHICALDISTRIBUTIONOFCHINASOFDISTOCKFROMOFFICIALSTATISTICSBECAUSEMUCHOFITISROUTEDVIAHONGKONGCHINA,ANDTHECARIBBEANTAXHAVENSTHELARGESTPROPORTIONOFTHISOFDI72OFTHETOTAL,AMOUNTINGTOUS228BILLIONASATEND2010ISREPORTEDASGOINGTOASIATHEBULKOFTHISWENTTOHONGKONGCHINAUS199BILLION,OR87OFOFDITOASIAAND63OFTHEGLOBALTOTALTHESECONDLARGESTPROPORTIONOFOFDISTOCKFROMCHINAISINLATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANUS44BILLION,14OFTHEGLOBALTOTAL,BUTTHEOVERWHELMINGMAJORITYOFTHISGOESTOJUSTTWOTAXHAVENS,THEBRITISHVIRGINISLANDSANDTHECAYMANISLANDS,WHICHTOGETHERHAVECHINESEOFDISTOCKOFUS405BILLION92OFTHELATINAMERICANSHAREONLYUS30BILLIONOFCHINASOFDISTOCKISLOCATEDINDEVELOPEDECONOMIES,BUTTHISISGROWINGRAPIDLYALTHOUGHEUROPEHASABSORBEDLESSTHANUS16BILLION5OFCHINASGLOBALSTOCKIN2010,ITRECEIVE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TOCONTINUEEXPANDINGRAPIDLYANDBECOMEMOREGEOGRAPHICALLYANDSECTORALLYDIVERSETHEPACEANDCOMPOSITIONOFTHISEXPANSIONWILLDEPENDONBOTHDOMESTICANDEXTERNALCONDITIONSATTHISSTAGE,ACRUCIALFACTORWILLBETHEWILLINGNESSANDABILITYOFCHINESEENTERPRISESTOBUILDTHEIRREPUTATIONS,BOTHINDIVIDUALLYANDCOLLECTIVELYASNOTEDINTHEPREVIOUSCOLUMBIAFDIPROFILEONOUTWARDFDIFROMCHINA,25THEINCREASINGEXPOSUREOFCHINESEMNESTOINTERNATIONALBUSINESSPRACTICEWILLPROMPTTHEMTOSEEKFURTHERIMPROVEMENTSINCHINASOWNINSTITUTIONALFRAMEWORK,WHICHWILLBEBENEFICIALFORBOTHDOMESTICINVESTMENTANDINWARDANDOUTWARDFDI从中国及其政策背景下对外直接投资尽管不明朗的全球气候出现从最近的危机中出现，中国的对外直接投资（OFDI）已经继续增长。生效与2011年的最新五年计划，更加强调了走出去的政策，而该国的对外直接投资继续进入第三和第一产业，也有部门逐渐多元化的迹象。亚洲，特别是香港（中国），大规模的中国投资，对外直接投资在更小的目标，包括欧洲，更快速增长。加勒比海离岸避税天堂继续获得大量中国对外直接投资升。在中国地方当局越来越多地做他们的位，以促进海外投资。除非有国内和外部条件的任何重大不利变化，中国的对外直接投资有可能继续扩大和多样化。趋势和发展国家层面的发展到2010年底中国的对外直接投资存量达到2980亿美元,十倍于2000年价值280亿美元的记录,远高于19901的微不足道的40亿美元,中国在其对外投资方面是后起之秀,即使在大型新兴市场。巴西对外直接投资总额在1990年达到410亿美元,比中国,但在2010年落后中国1810亿美元。中国的对外直接投资规模现在水平与新加坡差不多在2010年达到3000亿美元。俄罗斯比中国的对外直接投资规模增加更加迅速,在2010年达到4340亿美元。中国经采用“走出去”的政策在世纪之交以来发展迅速，尽管全球金融和经济危机和外国直接投资在全球流量暴跌，中国的FDI流出量继续在最近几年上升。大规模增加132，从2007年225亿美元增加到2008年的522亿美元（此时全球对外直接投资流量下降了12），中国的OFDI增长速度有进一步加快，虽然低于2009年的82，2009年是565亿美元（全球对外直接投资流量下降了38）2010年全球对外直接投资流量上升至13000亿美元,中国相对于2009年增长20，在2010年达到680亿美元。2010年中国79的对外直接投资被投资于第三产业，主要子行业是租赁和商务服务业（占对外直接投资存量的31），金融服务（13）和批发零售业（13）。第一产业次之，占总数的152010年采矿，和石油占对外直接投资总存量的14。不像在中国的外来直接投资的情的况，对外直接投资在第二产业是中国对外直接投资的一个相对较小的组成部分，2010年进展6的对外直接投资存量。然而这幅图片也显示出变化，因为中国的对外直接投资变得更加部门多样化。这是根据对外直接投资流量统计出2010年外国直接投资流出量在采矿，采石和石油与相对于2009年下降了57，而制造业增长了108。然而也有一个警告因为投资，尤其是那些在自然资源里的投资，往往会很大，因此大受回收时间影响，流量数字是一个不太可靠的指导，行业分布比是相对规模而言更可靠的。然而，即使是由外国直接投资存量数据显示的行业分布也可能会产生误导。例如，例如在第三子行业的投资比例，如金融服务和租赁和商务服务业投资最终可能会被运用于制造业。这方面一个可能的标志是中国企业投资海外的行业分布，这给了一个不同的角度看问题，即使考虑到各种投资在不同行业的平均规模。2010年，外向型投资企业（29）的比例最大的投资在制造业，批发与零售（23）名列第二，租赁和商务服务业（13）此外，即使企业对外直接投资较大的比例在制造业的生产和其占中国对外直接投资总额没有影响外国直接投资的价值（如果投资在制造业的平均价值比那些在初级部门或服务的相应较低），它可能有其他变量，如制造业在中国的跨国公司的海外工作或自己的份额从海外关联公司出口份额的影响。正如在第一个哥伦比亚国际直接投资文件显示，从对外直接投资的行业分布注意到中国对外直接投资一直保持稳定，但这种稳定性可能是虚幻的，它很可能让位于未来几年组成的重大转变。在未来中国企业也将朝着多样化，制造更直接地服务于全球消费品市场的产品，可以通过上面所讨论的中国企业海外投资的分布来表示。最近在服务业的投资，尤其是在银行，会产生强烈的催化作用，促进双方的进一步扩大和中国的外商直接投资的部门多样化。从官方统计数据中建立中国对外直接投资的地理分布的可靠图片是很难的，因为很大一部分是通过香港（中国）和加勒比地区避税天堂投资到国外的。这个对外直接投资的最大比例占总数的72，截至2010年底为美元2280亿美元投资到了亚洲。这样大的份额主要投向香港（中国）（1990亿美元，或对外直接投资的87，亚洲及全球总量的63）。来自中国的对外直接投资存量的第二大比例在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（440亿美元，占全球总量的14），但绝大多数的这种去向只有两个避税天堂，英属维尔京群岛和开曼群岛，它们共同拥有的405亿美元（拉丁美洲占92）的中国对外直接投资存量。只有300亿美元的对外直接投资存量坐落在发达经济体，但这种投资取向增长很快。虽然欧洲已经吸收了不到160亿美元（中国在2010年全球规模的5），但欧洲接收到了中国在全球外国直接投资占2010的6，2009年的10的流量2010年，中国对外直接投资到欧洲的流量增加了一倍，中国的对外直接投资存量最大的发达经济是澳大利亚，到2010年年底达到80亿美元，占全球总量的3。在非洲的对外直接投资存量在2010年达到130亿美元，占全球总量的4。大部分的非洲和澳大利亚对外直接投资头像了天然资源行业。大多数地区中国的对外直接投资存量的增长速度非常快例如，2010年相对于2005年,在大大洋洲增长速度逾13倍，而在欧洲则是12倍，在非洲是八倍。在使用官方的对外直接投资数字时需要谨慎。在某种程度上，对外直接投资用于注资的是特殊目的实体，然后用这笔钱为外国直接投资（IFDI）在中国采取的财政刺激措施提供优势，即在某种程度上有“往返”，官方数据总可能被高估。从2008年取消财政奖励,开始圆跳闸逻辑上应减少。但就其本质为非法活动，它是很难获得在往返的实际趋势的确凿证据。其中一个原因是往返的延续