the-principle-us-response-in-the-cuban-missile-crisis

ADAMSMITH1740AMERICANFOREIGNPOLICYBOAZATZILITHEPRINCIPLEUSRESPONSEINTHECUBANMISSILECRISISINTHEMIDSTOFTHECUBANMISSILECRISISTHENPRESIDENTJOHNFKENNEDY,INSELECTINGAUSRESPONSETOSOVIETACTIONS,HADTOCHOOSEBETWEENTWOCOMPETINGPROPOSALSTHEFIRSTOFTHESEPROPOSALSCALLEDFORANAVALBLOCKADEORQUARANTINEOFCUBAANDTHESECONDPROPOSALCALLEDFORAMILITARYSTRIKEOFTHERECENTLYESTABLISHEDMISSILEBASESINCUBA,POSSIBLYFOLLOWEDUPBYANINVASIONTHEREWEREOTHEROPTIONSONTHETABLEASWELL,BUTTHESESEEMEDTOBE,ANDPROBABLYWERE,FARLESSATTRACTIVEINTHISPAPERIWILLDISCUSSTHESEPROPOSALSINDETAILANDSHOWTHATTHENAVALBLOCKADEWASINDEEDTHEBESTCHOICEUNDERTHEKNOWLEDGEAVAILABLETOUSPOLICYMAKERSATTHETIMEFINALLYIWILLDISCUSSTHELESSONSTHATCANBELEARNEDFROMTHISEXPERIENCEANDCOMPARETHESITUATIONTOMORERECENTONESCAUSALANALYSISWEWILLBEGINOURDISCUSSIONBYEVALUATINGTHETWOMUTUALLYEXCLUSIVEOPTIONSAVAILABLEFROMTHEVIEWPOINTOFA“FLYONTHEWALL”THATIS,ANOBJECTIVEOBSERVERATTHETIMEOFTHEINCIDENTBEFOREWECANBEGINLOOKINGINDETAILATTHESEOPTIONS,THOUGH,WEMUSTESTABLISHABASISOFCONSIDERATIONSTHATWEWILLKEEPINMINDBACKGROUNDINFORMATIONTHEMOSTOBVIOUSFACETOFTHISSITUATIONWASTHEIMMEDIATETHREATITWASESTIMATEDTHATTHEUSSRHADHALFOFITSICBMWEAPONRYINCUBAORONITSWAYIFTHESEWEAPONSWEREFIREDITWASTHOUGHTTHATTHEYWOULDBEABLETOKILL80MILLIONAMERICANSINAMATTEROFMINUTESASIDEFROMTHREATSONTHEAMERICANPEOPLE,THESOVIETSWEREINAPOSITIONTOTAKEWESTBERLINFROMUSCONTROL,ANINCIDENTWHICHWOULDBEAHUGESETBACKANDWORKAGAINSTTHEGOALOFCONTAINMENTALTHOUGHTHECUBANMISSILEINCIDENTWASLARGEINTERMSOFMAGNITUDEOFIMPACT,ITOCCURREDWITHINASHORTPERIODOFTIMEONTHEORDEROF2WEEKSTHESOVIETSHADBEGANTALKINGTOFIDELCASTROMONTHSBEFORETHEUSDISCOVEREDWHATWASGOINGONHOWEVER,BYTHETIMETHEYDIDDISCOVERTHEMISSILES,THEREWASAVERYSHORTWINDOWOFOPPORTUNITYTOACTBEFORETHEMISSILESBECAMEFULLYOPERATIVEONEOBVIOUSGOALOFUSPOLICYMAKERSWASTOREMOVETHETHREATWHICHHADBEENPLACEDUPONTHEMBYTHEPRESENCEOFTHOSEMISSILESINCUBAANOTHERPRIMARYGOALWASTOMAINTAINCREDIBILITYDOMESTICCREDIBILITYWASIMPORTANTTOJFKSPOLITICALPARTY,NATOMIGHTHAVELOSTALLCREDIBILITYIFTHEUSDIDNTACT,AND,PERHAPSMOSTIMPORTANTLY,THEUSNEEDEDTOMAINTAINTHETHREATCREDIBILITYOFITSMILITARYPOWERAIRSTRIKEANALYSISINTHISSECTIONIWILLENUMERATEANDDISCUSSTHENEGATIVEORUNDESIRABLEFEATURESASSOCIATEDWITHATACTICALAIRSTRIKETHISCOURSEOFACTIONALLBUTNECESSITATEDANINVASIONOFCUBAAFTERTHEAIRSTRIKESHADBEENMADETHISFOLLOWSFROMTHEOBSERVATIONTHATNOAIRSTRIKECOULDBEGUARANTEEDTOHITANDDISABLEALLMISSILESSUCHANINVASIONWOULDHAVEALLOWEDTHEUSTOREMOVETHENEFARIOUSCUBANGOVERNMENT,ANDWOULDHAVEGIVENITSOMEAMOUNTOFJUSTIFICATIONFORDOINGSOONTHEOTHERHAND,THEREWEREMANYPROBLEMSWITHINVADINGCUBATHEFIRSTCLASSOFTHESEPROBLEMSHASTODOWITHTHELOGISTICSTHEBAYOFPIGSINCIDENTPROVEDTOBEADISASTERANDITWASESTIMATEDTHAT200,000AMERICANLIVESWOULDHAVEBEENLOSTINSUCHANINVASIONANOTHERCLASSOFPROBLEMSHASTODOWITHQUESTIONSOFSTRATEGYHOWWOULDTHEUSMANAGECUBAAFTERTHEINVASIONHADBEENFINISHEDWOULDTHISPROVOKEOTHERCOUNTRIESTODEVELOPTHEIROWNWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTIONWOULDSTRIPPINGTHEUSSROFONEHALFOFITSMISSILESINCITEITTOBECOMEMOREHOSTILEWASTHEINTELLIGENCETHATWASBEINGUSEDTOJUSTIFYTHEINVASIONINFACTCOMPLETELYRELIABLEWHATWOULDBEOURRESPONSEIFSOMEMISSILESWEREFIREDDURINGTHEAIRSTRIKESORINVASIONCOULDWEBEGUARANTEEDTHATEVENIFKRUSHCHEVDIDNTAUTHORIZEAMISSILELAUNCHTHATITWOULDNOTHAPPENWOULDANATTACKONCUBABERESPONDEDTOBYASOVIETATTACKONWESTBERLINORTURKEYTHEFINALCLASSOFPROBLEMSISOFAMORALNATUREIFANAIRSTRIKEONACOUNTRYTHATHASNOTHARMEDYOUINANYWAYISAGAINSTINTERNATIONALLAW,WHATABOUTANINVASIONISPREEMPTIVESTRIKEOKAY,EVENIFCIVILIANSAREKILLEDSOMEOFTHESEQUESTIONSCOULDBEANSWEREDSOTHATTHEYWERENOLONGERDETRIMENTALTOTHESTORYOFANAIRSTRIKEANDINVASIONOTHERQUESTIONSCOULDONLYBEADDRESSEDUSINGASSUMPTIONSTHEREWERESOMEDISTINCTPLUSESTOTHISCOURSEOFACTION,HOWEVERONEWAYORANOTHER,LONGTERMSTABILITYWASENSUREDEVENTUALLYTHEUSWOULDCONTROLCUBAANDTHEREWOULDNOLONGERBETHETHREATOFNUCLEARWEAPONSFROMTHERETHEQUESTIONISATWHATCOSTWEKNEWOFTHEPOTENTIALUPTO80MILLIONAMERICANLIVESCOST,BUTTHEUNCERTAINTYWITHANYESTIMATEOFTHEACTUALCOSTWASHIGHSECONDLY,THEUSWOULDDEMONSTRATETHATITWOULDBEWILLINGTOUSEITSWEAPONSANDCAPABILITIESTOGUARANTEEITSSECURITYTHEUSEOFAMOREAGGRESSIVERESPONSEHEREMIGHTHAVEBEENSOMETHINGTHESOVIETSWOULDHAVERESPONDEDBETTERTOFINALLY,THESOVIETSWOULDONLYRETAINONEHALFOFITSICBMCAPABILITIESINTHEENDTHEADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESOFTHISOPTIONHADTOBEWEIGHEDALTHOUGHIWILLNOTDISCUSSTHISEVALUATIONITISALMOSTCLEARTHATTHEDISADVANTAGESOFTHISOPTIONOUTWEIGHPOTENTIALADVANTAGESBLOCKADEINTHISSECTIONIWILLEVALUATETHEPROSANDCONSOFANAVALBLOCKADEOFCUBAPERHAPSTHELARGESTDISADVANTAGETOTHISPROPOSALWASTHATITWOULDNOTREMOVEANYOFTHEMISSILESTHATWEREINCUBAATTHETIME,ANDTHUSITWOULDHAVELEFTTHESOVIETSWITHMOREARMSANDMORETIMETOPREPARETHEMSINCETHISPLANCALLEDFORTHEUSTOMAKEAMOVEANDTHENWAITFORKRUSHCHEVSRESPONSE,WELOSTTHECHANCETOTAKEOUTSOMEAMOUNTOFTHEMISSILESINCUBATHATWOULDBEHELPFULIFTHATRESPONSETURNEDOUTTOBEHOSTILEBECAUSETHISPLANCALLEDFORTHEUSTOWAITFORAUSSRRESPONSE,ITSSECONDDISADVANTAGEWASTHATITWOULDHAVEMADETHEUSLOOKWEAKANDDETERIORATEDTHECREDIBILITYOFITSMILITARYTHREATEVENIFTHEUSHADONEHUNDREDTIMESMORENUCLEARCAPABILITYTHANTHEUSSR,THATCAPABILITYWOULDHAVEBEENFUTILEIFTHESOVIETSDIDNOTPERCEIVEITASATHREATITISWORTHYTONOTEHERETHAT,LOOKINGBACK,MOSTCOUNTRIESSAWTHEBLOCKADEASACOURAGEOUSACTTHIRDLY,SINCEANAVALBLOCKADEINVOLVEDCOORDINATINGOVERAHUNDREDSHIPSDOINGDIFFERENTTHINGS,ITINCREASEDTHECHANCEOFANEXECUTIONFOULUPFINALLY,SINCEWEEXPECTEDTHESOVIETSTOLOOKFORWAYSTORESPONDAGGRESSIVELYTOABLOCKADEWHILENOTRISKINGNUCLEARWARWITHUS,THISCOULDHAVEPUTWESTBERLINORTURKEYINGREATDANGEROFASOVIETINVASIONTHEPRIMARYADVANTAGEOFABLOCKADEOVERANAIRSTRIKEWASTHATITWOULDHAVEGIVENUSANOTHERLAYEROFISOLATIONFROMDIRECTMILITARYACTION,WHILESTILLPROVIDINGTHATOPTIONASNECESSARYINTHEFUTURETHISSCALINGUPFEATUREOFTHEBLOCKADEWOULDHAVEMADEITAPPARENTTHATWEWERENOTSETONATTACKINGCUBAORPURSUINGFURTHERAGGRESSION,BUTALSOWOULDMAINTAINTHETHREATAGAINSTTHATISLANDANDTHESOVIETSNEEDEDTOCONVINCETHEMTOREMOVETHEMISSILESDISCUSSIONINTHISSECTIONIWILLDISCUSSTHEBLOCKADEOPTIONANDENDBYCOMPARINGITTOTHEAIRSTRIKEANDINVASIONOPTIONTHEKEYTOTHEBLOCKADEWASTOAPPLYTHECORRECTAMOUNTOFTHREATIFTHEREWASTOOLITTLETHREATAPPEASEMENTTHENTHESOVIETSWOULDHAVEBEENCONVINCEDTHATTHEYCOULDBULLYTHEUSANDDOANYTHINGITWANTEDWITHOUTFEAROFRETALIATIONTHISCANBESEENBYTHEACTIONSOFTHESOVIETSINTHEMONTHSBEFORETHEMISSILESWEREFOUNDTHEUSDIDNOTSHOWANYIMMINENTAGGRESSIONANDTHESOVIETSFELTTHATTHEYCOULDMOVETHESURFACETOSURFACEMISSILESINTOCUBAIFTHEREWASTOOMUCHTHREATANDPOSSIBLYACTIONONTHATTHREAT,EGAIRSTRIKEAGAINSTCUBATHENTHEUSWOULDHAVEBEENBACKINGTHESOVIETSINTOACORNERFROMWHICHTHEYWOULDNEEDTOESCAPEINORDERTOSAVEFACE,PRESERVETHEIRNATIONALSECURITY,ANDENSURETHEIRTHREATOFACTIONAGAINSTFUTUREAGGRESSORSTHEONLYWAYFORTHEMTODOTHISWASTOATTACKTHEUSINRETURN,BYLAUNCHINGANYSURVIVINGMISSILESINCUBA,ATTACKINGFROMSUBMARINES,TAKINGOVERWESTBERLIN,AND/ORUSINGANYOFTHEOTHERHANDFULOFOPTIONSONTHETABLESINCETHISANDTHESOVIETRESPONSETOAPPEASEMENTWEREUNDESIRABLEWEHOPEDTHATTHEREWASSOMEREGIONINTHEMIDDLEINWHICHWECOULDDEMONSTRATEWILLINGNESSTOGOTOWARWHILEAVOIDINGITBYGIVINGTHEMSOMEBREATHINGROOMTOMAINTAINTHEIROBJECTIVESWITHOUTUSINGANAGGRESSIVERESPONSETHEPROPOSALWASANAVALBLOCKADETHEQUESTIONWASWHETHERORNOTABLOCKADEWOULDACHIEVETHISBASEDONTHEINFORMATIONAVAILABLEATTHETIME,ITSEEMSLIKEITWOULDHAVEABLOCKADEWOULDDEMONSTRATETHATTHEUSHADMILITARYPOWER,ANDTHATITWILLUSEIT,ATLEASTTOLIMITTHEMOVEMENTOFANADVERSARYSMILITARYFURTHERMORE,ABLOCKADECOULDBEDESIGNEDSOTHATITWOULDPROVIDETHESOVIETSWITHTIMETOEVALUATEOURRESPONSEANDCALCULATETHEIROWNUNDERTHENEWKNOWLEDGETHATTHEUSMEANSBUSINESSTHESOVIETRESPONSECOULDTHENBETOEITHERFIREANYOPERATIVEMISSILESINCUBA,TRYTOPUSHTHROUGHTHEBLOCKADE,ORTORESPECTTHEBLOCKADEFIRINGTHEMISSILESWOULDBEANOVERKILLRESPONSEANDISNTVERYLIKELYIFAVESSELATTEMPTSTOPUSHTHROUGHOURBLOCKADEWEWOULDHAVEHADTOMAKEAFIRMRESPONSE,INORDERTOREAFFIRMTHEASSERTIONTHATWEWEREWILLINGTOUSEOURMILITARYPOWERIFTHEYRESPECTEDTHEBLOCKADETHENTHATMEANSWEWOULDHAVEADEQUATELYEXPRESSEDOURRESOLVEHOWEVER,WHATWOULDTHENHAPPENNEXTTHEIDEALOUTCOMEWOULDBETHATTHESOVIETSWOULDAGREETOREMOVETHEIRMISSILESFROMCUBA,HOWEVERTHEYMIGHTMAKESOMEDEMANDSINRESPONSETOOURSOMEWHATAGGRESSIVERESPONSETHESECOULDBETOSURRENDERWESTBERLIN,TOREMOVEOURNUCLEARMISSILESFROMTURKEY,AND/ORTOGIVECUBAASECURITYGUARANTEEANYOFTHESERESPONSESISMOREFAVORABLETHANTHEMILITARYEXCHANGEWITHTHESOVIETSTHATWOULDLIKELYRESULTFROMASURGICALAIRSTRIKEANDINVASIONOFCUBALESSONSLEARNEDTHEREARESOMETHEORIESWHICHEXPLAINTHESOVIETANDCUBANDECISIONTOMOVEMISSILESINTOCUBA,ANDBYLOOKINGATTHESEWECANCORROBORATETHEIRMODELSTHESOVIETSPROBABLYFELTTHREATENEDBYTHENUCLEARMISSILESINTURKEYANDWANTEDTOGAINEQUALSTRATEGICPOWEROFFENSEDEFENSETHEORYFIDELALSOMUSTHAVEFELTTHREATENED,ANDACCORDINGTOTHESPIRALMODELTHISCOULDHAVEBEENTHEDECIDINGFACTORFORHIMINALLOWINGMISSILESINTOCUBATHUSTHESOVIETANDCUBANGOVERNMENTSHADTHEIROWNRESPECTIVEREASONSFORSUPPORTINGTHEMOVE,ANDSINCETHEYSHAREDANIDEOLOGYTHEIRALLIANCEWASONLYNATURALITISODDTHATUSSECURITYREPORTSDIDNOTANTICIPATETHISMOVETHECUBANMISSILECRISISALSOMAKESAPOINTABOUTIDEOLOGYVERSUSRATIONALITYCONTRARYTOTHEPOPULARUSVIEWOFTHEUSSRASIRRATIONALANDTRIGGERHAPPYACTORS,THISSITUATIONHIGHLIGHTEDTHESTRENGTHOFDETERRENCEANDTHERATIONALITYOFBOTHSIDESEVENTHOUGHITWASATOUGHSITUATION,COMMUNICATIONCHANNELSWEREOPENANDHOSTILITIESWEREDECREASEDTHEREARESOMEPARALLELSTHATCANBEDRAWNBETWEENTHECUBANMISSILECRISISANDTHERECENTANDONGOINGEFFORTSINIRAQASTHEUSBEGANTOPUTMOREPRESSUREONIRAQANDTOMAKETHREATS,IRAQALLOWEDUNINSPECTORSBACKINTOTHECOUNTRYTHISISAGOODEXAMPLEINWHICHATHREATWASMADEANDTHEDESIRABLERESPONSEWASACHIEVEDFROMACOARSEPERSPECTIVESADDAMCOMPLIEDCOMPLETELYWITHUSANDUNMANDATESWHETHERORNOTTHEREWASALARGEAMOUNTOFUNDERTHETABLETRICKERYONTHEPARTOFSADDAMISSOMETHINGTHATWILLNOTCOMETOSURFACEUNTILAFEWYEARSFROMNOWHOWEVERBASEDONCURRENTINFORMATIONITSEEMSLIKESADDAMDIDNOTHAVEASIGNIFICANTNUMBEROFWMDSIFHEDIDHAVEWMDS,WOULDHEHAVEUSEDTHEMAGAINSTUSFORCESBEFOREANINVASIONIFNOT,WOULDHEHAVEUSEDTHEMDURINGANINVASIONTHEANSWERSTOTHESEQUESTIONSARELARGELYAFUNCTIONOFTHEAMOUNTOFTHREATFELTBYTHEIRAQIREGIMEANDITSABILITYTOREASONRATIONALLYWEKNOWTHATTHELARGESTREASONFIDELAGREEDTOMOVINGTHEMISSILESINTOCUBAWASTHATHEFELTTHREATENEDBYTHEUSSADDAMMUSTHAVEFELTTHREATENEDBYTHEUSRHETORIC,USEFFORTSINTHEUN,WHATWASBEINGSAIDINTHEUSMEDIA,ANDTHEUSRECENTOVERTHROWOFAFGHANISTANIFWECOMPARESADDAMTOFIDEL,WECANINFERTHATSADDAMWOULDHAVEDONEWHATEVERHECOULDHAVETOSTAYINPOWERFORTUNATELYFIDELDIDNOTHAVETHEPOWERTOLAUNCHTHEMISSILES,JUSTASSADDAMDIDNTHAVEANYSIGNIFICANTNUMBEROFWMDSTHEREARENOWTWOMORECOUNTRIESLEFTONBUSHS“AXISOFEVIL”LISTNORTHKOREAANDIRANTHEUNITEDSTATESISTHREATENINGTHESEGOVERNMENTS,ANDTHEYWILLCERTAINLYACTTOPROTECTTHEMSELVES,PROBABLYBYDEVELOPINGWEAPONSTHISISONEOFTHEBESTEXPLANATIONSFORNORTHKOREASRECENTEFFORTSTODEVELOPNUCLEARWEAPONSNOWTHATWEUNDERSTANDWHYTHESECOUNTRIESARETAKINGACTIVESTEPSTOARMTHEMSELVES,THEQUESTIONBECOMESHOWWECANHANDLETHISPROBLEMTHEREISONEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHECURRENTSITUATIONANDTHATOFTHECUBANMISSILECRISISINTHELATTER,THECUBANSWEREBEINGARMEDBYTHESOVIETS,SOITWASTHEIRDECISIONTOREMOVETHEMISSILES,NOTTHECUBANSNEVERTHELESSTHEREARESTILLSOMEPARALLELSHEREFROMTHESOVIETPERSPECTIVE,THECUBANMISSILECRISISHADTHEFOLLOWINGSEQUENCEOFEVENTSTHEYFELTTHREATENEDBYJUPITERMISSILESINTURKEY,THEYSHIPMISSILESTOCUBA,THEUSRESPONDSBYMAKINGAMODESTTHREAT,ANDTHEYREMOVETHEMISSILESINEXCHANGEFORTHEREMOVALOFTHEJUPITERMISSILESTHEUSMODERATETHREATWORKEDINTHESAMESENSETHATTHEUSTHREATSAGAINSTIRAQCONVINCEDSADDAMTOALLOWUNINSPECTORSBACKINTOHISCOUNTRYINTHECASEOFNORTHKOREA,THEUSHASHADMANYTROOPSONTHEEDGEOFTHEIRBORDERFORMANYDECADESTHEREISAKEYDIFFERENCE,THOUGHNKOREADOESNOTHAVEANUCLEARDETERRENTIFTHEYDEVELOPEDNUCLEARWEAPONSTHENTHEYWOULDNOTFEELASTHREATENEDBYTHEUSDESPITEWHATTHEUSSAYS,SINCETHEYHAVETHESECURITYGUARANTEETHATCOMESW