金属及采矿行业：上半年需求疲软，但环比改善势头依然完好，强力买入中国建材

金属及采矿行业上半年需求疲软，但环比改善势头依然完好，强力买入中国建材2012年3月9日中国金属及采矿证券研究报告上半年需求疲软，但环比改善势头依然完好；强力买入中国建材摘要2012年上半年的需求反弹较晚出现且力度较弱；买入行业龙头由于流动性缺乏和投资活动显著放缓，2011年四季度以来中国大宗商品需求增长陷于停滞。今年年初以来的需求仍然乏力，且库存远高于正常水平，表明上半年的库存回补将较往年更晚出现且势头会更弱。然而，我们预计二季度中期之后，被推迟的基建项目将重新开工，且保障房建设活动将同比走强，从而推动大宗商品需求环比增速持续改善。在我们看来，基本面更为强劲的行业龙头拥有更具吸引力的风险回报状况。本报告中，我们推出了研究范围内中国大宗商品股的2014年每股盈利预测。水泥将率先受益于需求反弹；强力买入中国建材水泥是施工中首先要使用到的建筑材料，由于目前库存较低，我们预计水泥需求将率先反弹。尽管如此，由于比较基数较高，2012年上半年几乎所有的水泥生产商都可能面临盈利/利润率的同比大幅下滑。我们认为市场下调海螺水泥/中国建材的2012年预测可能属于过度悲观，两家企业的销量增长前景可能被市场低估。强力买入中国建材。买入海螺水泥、华润水泥。钢铁又是艰难的一年；卖出鞍钢H股；强力买入宝钢尽管行业普遍亏损，但2012年中国钢铁产能增速可能仍会高于市场预期。劳动力短缺使得唐山的亏损钢厂持续进行生产。利润相对较好的小钢厂建设的新产能可能将保持开工。由此带来的高库存以及原材料成本的上涨可能会进一步抑制钢价并挤压利润率。2012年对于中国的钢铁企业来说可能仍是艰难的一年。重申对鞍钢H股的卖出评级。煤炭现货价格短期内无上行空间；青睐合同煤价占比较高的企业即便已连续16周下跌，但我们并不认为现货煤价将很快反弹，原因在于库存处于高位，且需求淡季即将到来。与之相比我们更看好合同煤价占比较高的企业。买入中煤能源，将H股加入强力买入名单。金属短期内对铜持谨慎看法；下调江西铜业评级至中性上海期交所铜库存处于10年高点，且保税仓库库存也高于正常水平，表明2011年四季度中国强劲的铜进口并未受到实际需求的支撑。我们预计2月份中国铜进口将连续第二个月环比下降，且短期内铜价将回落。下调江西铜业H股评级至中性。全文翻译将随后提供未来可关注事件可能会有调整。资料来源港交所、上交所、深交所评级和目标价格概览资料来源高盛研究预测韩永,CFA执业证书编号S1420511010001862124018948YONGHANGHSLCN北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。谢鸿鹤执业证书编号S1420511090001862124018694HONGHEXIEGHSLCN北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究COMPANYFY11REPORTDATECOMPANYFY11REPORTDATEWCCMARCH15CHINACOALMARCH27CHALCOMARCH16JIANGXICOPPERMARCH27SOUTHGOBIMARCH19WINSWAYMARCH27HIDILIMARCH20BBMGMARCH28SHENHUAMARCH23MAGANGMARCH28ANHUICONCHMARCH25JIDONGMARCH29YANZHOUMARCH25BAOSTEELMARCH30ANGANGMARCH27WUGANGAPRIL25CEMENTPREVNEW12MTHTPPOTENTIALUP/DOWNCNBMBUYBUY130028ANHUICONCHHBUYBUY300023CRCEMENTBUYBUY72017ANHUICONCHABUYNEUTRAL192012SHANSHUICEMENTNEUTRALNEUTRAL6500BBMGANEUTRALNEUTRAL9305BBMGHNEUTRALNEUTRAL6806WESTCHINACEMENTSELLNEUTRAL14614JIDONGSELLSELL130032STEELPREVNEW12MTHTPPOTENTIALUP/DOWNBAOGANGBUYBUY61019MAGANGANEUTRALNEUTRAL2803ANGANGANEUTRALNEUTRAL4801WUGANGNEUTRALNEUTRAL3005MAGANGHNEUTRALNEUTRAL22011ANGANGHSELLSELL40027METALSPREVNEW12MTHTPPOTENTIALUP/DOWNJIANGXICOPPERHBUYNEUTRAL20507CHALCOHNEUTRALNEUTRAL4002JIANGXICOPPERANEUTRALNEUTRAL24207CHALCOASELLSELL60018CHINAMOLYSELLSELL25330COALPREVNEW12MTHTPPOTENTIALUP/DOWNCHINACOALHBUYBUY120028SHENHUAHBUYBUY414022CHINACOALABUYBUY115020SHENHUAABUYBUY310016FUSHANNEUTRALNEUTRAL2901SOUTHGOBISELLSELL460015HIDILISELLSELL22031RATINGTARGETPRICE渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2012年3月9日中国金属及采矿高华证券投资研究2TABLEOFCONTENTSLATER/SOFTERDEMANDREBOUNDHIGHINVENTORYTODELAYRESTOCKING3KEYINVESTMENTIDEAS6INDUSTRYLEADERSOFFERMOREATTRACTIVERISKREWARD9FY11EPREVIEW,FY12/13EREVISIONS,INTRODUCINGFY14E12RATINGANDTARGETPRICECHANGES14CEMENTFIRSTBENEFICIARYOFDEMANDREBOUNDBUYCNBMADDTOCL,CONCHHOFFCL,CRCEMENT20STEELANOTHERTOUGHYEARONMORENEWCAPACITYSELLANGANGH23COALSPOTPRICESUNLIKELYTOREBOUNDNEARTERMPREFERCONTRACTPRICEEXPOSUREBUYCHINACOALADDHTOCL27COPPERANALYZINGCHINASSTRONG4QIMPORTDOWNGRADEJXC29ALUMINUMHIGHERPRICEFORECAST,BUTJUSTONCOSTPUSH31CNBM3323HKREPLICATINGTHEEASTERNCHINASTORYCLBUY34ANHUICONCH0914HKOFFCLTOTAKEPROFITMAINTAINBUY36CHINACOAL1898HKVOLUMEGROWTHUNDERESTIMATEDCLBUY40JIANGXICOPPER0358HKCOPPERPRICETOCORRECTDOWNTONEUTRAL42ANGANG0347HK2012UNLIKELYTOBETURNAROUNDYEARSELL45WESTCHINACEMENT2233HKUPGRADINGTONEUTRALONVALUATION47SOUTHGOBI1878HKOFFCLTOTAKEPROFIT,BUTMAINTAINSELL50APPENDIX1CEMENTDATABANK67APPENDIX2COALDATABANK69APPENDIX3STEELDATABANK71APPENDIX4METALSDATABANK74DISCLOSUREAPPENDIX77GAOHUASECURITIESACKNOWLEDGESTHEROLEOFJULIANZHUANDSTEVENTAOOFGOLDMANSACHSINTHEPREPARATIONOFTHISPRODUCTTHEAUTHORSWOULDLIKETOTHANKYANYANFORHERCONTRIBUTIONTOTHEREPORTTHESTOCKPRICESINTHEREPORTREFERTOMARCH8,2012MARKETCLOSEUNLESSOTHERWISESPECIFIED渐飞研究报告/BGPANLVNET2012年3月9日中国金属及采矿高华证券投资研究3EXHIBIT1VALUATIONCOMPSNMNOTMEANINGFULDENOTESTHATTHISSTOCKISONOURREGIONALCONVICTIONLISTFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,PLEASEGOTO/GS4/RESEARCH/HEDGEHTMLSOURCEGOLDMANSACHSRESEARCHESTIMATES,QUANTUMDATABASELATER/SOFTERDEMANDREBOUNDHIGHINVENTORYTODELAYRESTOCKINGONEWEEKAFTERCHINESENEWYEAR,WEVISITEDOVER20CEMENT/STEEL/COAL/METALSCOMPANIESANDFOURPROPERTYDEVELOPERSINNINECITIESTHECOMPANIESWEMETSHAREDTHREECOMMONCONCERNSRESTOCKINGDIDNTHAPPEN,EVENAFTERTHELANTERNFESTIVALITUSUALLYDOESALLTHECOMPANIESWEMETEXPRESSEDAVERYCAUTIOUS6VIEWON1Q12WITHREGARDTOSALESVOLUMEANDMARGINS,ANDEXPECTRESTOCKINGTOHAPPENLATERTHANUSUAL,ATASMALLERMAGNITUDEPROPERTYDEVELOPERSAREBECOMINGEVENMORECAUTIOUSCOMPAREDTONOV/DEC2011NONEOFTHEFOURLEADINGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSWEMETEXPECTCHINATOLOOSENITSTIGHTENINGPOLICYANYTIMESOONLEADINGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSAREPLANNINGA2030CUTONNEWPROJECTSSTARTSIN2012RISINGLABORSHORTAGEANDCOSTSPROPERTYDEVELOPERSARERAISINGWAGESBY20PATOATTRACTMOREWORKERS,BUTAREHAVINGLIMITEDSUCCESSINTHELABORMARKETTHEAVERAGEAGEOFCHINAVANKESRURALMIGRANTWORKERSATITSPROPERTYPROJECTSINTHEPEARLRIVERDELTAIS45YEARS,WITHNONEBELOWTHEAGEOF30,ASPERTHECOMPANYTICKERGS8MAR2012CCY12MTHPOTENTIALMKTCAPRATINGPRICETPUPSIDE/DOWNSIDEUSMN2011E2012E2013E2011E2012E2013E2011E2012E2013EANHUICONCHH0914HKBUY2440HKD30002316,670252324888169231915ANHUICONCHA600585SSNEUTRAL1714CNY19201214,380252324767060201613CNBM332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