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CROSSBORDERMERGERSANDACQUISITIONSANALYSIS,STRUCTURINGANDVALUATIONCOURAGEISNOTTHEABSENCEOFFEARITISDOINGTHETHINGYOUFEARTHEMOSTRICKWARRENEXHIBIT1COURSELAYOUTMERGERS,ACQUISITIONS,ANDOTHERRESTRUCTURINGACTIVITIESPARTIVDEALSTRUCTURINGANDFINANCINGPARTIIMGLOBALLYINTEGRATEDCAPITALMARKETSWELLDEFINEDLEGALSYSTEMTRANSPARENTFINANCIALSTATEMENTSCURRENCYCONVERTIBILITYANDSTABLEGOVERNMENTEMERGINGCOUNTRIESCHARACTERIZEDBYALACKOFMANYOFTHECHARACTERISTICSOFDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESMOTIVESFORINTERNATIONALEXPANSIONGEOGRAPHICANDINDUSTRIALDIVERSIFICATIONACCELERATINGGROWTHINDUSTRYCONSOLIDATIONUTILIZATIONOFLOWERRAWMATERIALANDLABORCOSTSLEVERAGINGINTANGIBLEASSETSMINIMIZINGTAXLIABILITIESAVOIDINGENTRYBARRIERSAVOIDINGFLUCTUATINGEXCHANGERATESFOLLOWINGCUSTOMERSCOMMONMARKETENTRYSTRATEGIESMERGERSMAYFACILITATEENTRYBUTMUSTSHAREPROFITSANDCREATESPOTENTIALCOMPETITORSEXPORTINGCHEAPERTHANESTABLISHINGLOCALOPERATIONSBUTSTILLREQUIRESLOCALMARKETING/DISTRIBUTIONCHANNELSLICENSINGLEASTPROFITABLEANDRISKYENTRYSTRATEGYANDLACKOFCONTROLCOULDJEOPARDIZEBRANDORTRADEMARKDISCUSSIONQUESTIONS1WHATARETHEDIFFERENCESBETWEENSEGMENTEDANDGLOBALLYINTEGRATEDCAPITALMARKETSHOWDOTHESEDISTINCTIONSAFFECTPRICESOFFINANCIALASSETSOFCOMPARABLERISKANDMATURITYINVARIOUSCOUNTRIES2OFTHEVARIOUSMOTIVESFORINTERNATIONALEXPANSION,WHICHDOYOUBELIEVEISTHEMOSTCOMMONANDWHY3DOYOUBELIEVETHATSOMEMARKETENTRYSTRATEGIESAREMORESUITABLEFOREMERGINGTHANFORDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESEXPLAINYOURANSWERCHARACTERISTICSANDDETERMINANTSOFCROSSBORDERMERGERSANDACQUISITIONSONAVERAGE,ABOUTONETHIRDOFGLOBALMSHARECOMPANIESORLIMITEDLIABILITYCOUNTRIESINCIVILLAWNATIONSEG,CHINAFORMOFPAYMENTGENERALLYCASHFORMOFACQUISITIONSHAREACQUISITIONSGENERALLYSIMPLESTPOSTCLOSINGORGANIZATIONHOLDINGCOMPANYSTRUCTUREIFTARGETTOBEOPERATEDASINDEPENDENTUNITORINTEGRATEDWITHACQUIRERSEXISTING“INCOUNTRY”OPERATIONSTAXSTRATEGIESHIGHLYCOMPLEXANDVARYWITHLOCALTAXANDLEGALJURISDICTIONSIMPLEMENTINGCROSSBORDERTRANSACTIONSINEMERGINGCOUNTRIESPOSESCHALLENGESNOTCOMMONTODEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESSUCHASPOLITICALANDECONOMICRISKSINCLUDINGEXCESSIVELOCALGOVERNMENTREGULATIONCONFISCATORYTAXPOLICIESRESTRICTIONSONCASHREMITTANCESCURRENCYINCONVERTIBILITYEXPROPRIATIONOFFOREIGNASSETSLOCALCORRUPTIONANDCIVILWARANDLOCALINSURGENCIESMANAGINGRISKTHROUGHINSURANCEEG,OPIC,WORLDBANKANDCONTRACTOPTIONSEG,PUTSVALUINGCROSSBORDERTRANSACTIONSMETHODOLOGYSIMILARTOTHATEMPLOYEDWHENACQUIRERANDTARGETINSAMECOUNTRYDISCOUNTEDCASHFLOWIE,CONVERTINGFUTURECASHFLOWSTOAPRESENTVALUERELATIVEVALUATIONMULTIPLESIE,PURCHASEPRICEASAMULTIPLEOFTHETARGETFIRMSANNUALREVENUEBASICDIFFERENCESBETWEENWITHINCOUNTRYANDCROSSBORDERINCLUDETHEFOLLOWINGNEEDTOCONVERTTARGETCASHFLOWPROJECTIONSINTOACQUIRERHOMECOUNTRYCURRENCYADJUSTINGDISCOUNTRATE1FORRISKSUNCOMMONIN“WITHINCOUNTRY”VALUATIONSEG,POLITICAL/BUSINESSRISK,EXCHANGERATERISK1THEDISCOUNTRATEISTHECOSTOFCAPITALUSEDTOCONVERTFUTURECASHFLOWSTOAPRESENTVALUEPROJECTINGFUTURECURRENCYEXCHANGERATESOBJECTIVECONVERTTARGETLOCALCOUNTRYPROJECTEDCASHFLOWSINTOACQUIRERHOMECOUNTRYCURRENCYHOWPREDICTFORWARDFUTURESPOTEXCHANGERATESBASEDONINTERESTRATEPARITYIRPORPURCHASINGPOWERPARITYPPPTHEORIESSPOTEXCHANGERATES/THECURRENTNUMBEROFDOLLARSREQUIREDTOBUYONEEUROFORWARDEXCHANGERATETHERATEATWHICHABANKISWILLINGTOEXCHANGEONEDOLLARFORONEEUROATSOMESPECIFIEDFUTUREDATEFORWARDEXCHANGERATESAREDETERMINEDBYDIFFERENCESBETWEENINTERESTRATESIRPANDPRICESPPPINTHETWOCOUNTRIESINTERESTRATEPARITYTHEORYPROJECTINGTHEFORWARDDOLLAR/EUROEXCHANGERATEBASEDONUSINTERESTRATESCOMPAREDTOEUROZONECOUNTRYINTERESTRATES/N/01RNN/1RNN/N1RNN/1RNNX/0WHERE/NFORWARDEXCHANGERATENPERIODSINTOTHEFUTURE/0/EUROSPOTRATERNINTERESTRATEINUSRNINTERESTRATEINEUROPEANUNIONPROJECTINGTHEFORWARDEURO/DOLLAREXCHANGERATEBASEDONEUROZONECOUNTRYINTERESTRATESCOMPAREDTOUSINTERESTRATES/N/01RNN/1RNN/N1RNN/1RNNX/0WHERE/NFORWARDEUROEXCHANGERATENPERIODSINTOTHEFUTURE/0EURO/SPOTRATE201220132014TARGETSEURODENOMINATED124513071360FCFFCASHFLOWSMILLIONSTARGETCOUNTRYSINTERESTRATE450470530USINTERESTRATE425435455CURRENTSPOTRATE/12044PROJECTEDSPOTRATE/120151196411788TARGETSDOLLARDENOMINATED14959A1563716032FCFFCASHFLOWSMILLIONSNOTESCALCULATINGTHEPROJECTEDSPOTRATEUSINGINTERESTRATEPARITY/201210425/10450X1204412015/2013104352/104702X1204411964/2014104553/105303X1204411788CONVERTINGEURODENOMINATEDINTODOLLARDENOMINATEDFREECASHFLOWSTOTHEFIRMUSINGINTERESTRATEPARITYTHEORYA149591245X12015PURCHASINGPOWERPARITYTHEORYPROJECTINGTHEFORWARDDOLLAR/PESOEXCHANGERATEBASEDONUSPRICELEVELSCOMPAREDTOMEXICANPRICELEVELS/PESON/PESO01PUSN/1PMEXN/PESON1PUSN/1PMEXNX/PESO0WHERE/PESONFORWARD/PESOEXCHANGERATENPERIODSINTOTHEFUTURE/PESO0SPOT/PESOEXCHANGERATEPUSEXPECTEDUSINFLATIONRATEPMEXEXPECTEDMEXICANINFLATIONRATEPROJECTINGTHEFORWARDPESO/DOLLAREXCHANGERATEBASEDONMEXICANPRICELEVELSCOMPAREDTOUSPRICELEVELSPESO/N/PESO/01PMEXN/1PUSNPESO/N1PMEXN/1PUSNXPESO/0WHEREPESO/NFORWARDPESO/EXCHANGERATENPERIODSINTOTHEFUTUREPESO/0SPOTPESO/EXCHANGERATE201220132014TARGETSPESODENOMINATEDP1,0505P1,1247P1,2027FCFFCASHFLOWSMILLIONSOFPESOSMEXICANEXPECTEDINFLATIONRATE6USEXPECTEDINFLATIONRATE4SPOTRATE/PESO0877PROJECTEDSPOTRATE/PESO086008440828TARGETSDOLLARDENOMINATED9034A94929958FCFFCASHFLOWSMILLIONSOFNOTESCALCULATINGTHEPROJECTEDSPOTRATEUSINGPURCHASINGPOWERPARITY/PESO2012104/106X08770860/PESO20131042/1062X08770844/PESO20141043/1063X08770828A9034P1,0505X0860CONVERTINGPESODENOMINATEDINTODOLLARDENOMINATEDFREECASHFLOWSTOTHEFIRMUSINGPURCHASINGPOWERPARITYTHEORYESTIMATINGCOSTOFEQUITYFORDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESEXHIBITLITTLEDIFFERENCESINCOSTOFEQUITYBECAUSEOFGLOBALLYINTEGRATEDCAPITALMARKETSTHEREFORE,THEGLOBALCAPMCANBEWRITTENASFOLLOWSKE,DEVRFDEVFIRM,GLOBALRMRFFSPWHEREKE,DEVREQUIREDRETURNONEQUITYFORAFIRMINADEVELOPEDCOUNTRYRFLOCALCOUNTRYSRISKFREERATEOFRETURNIFCASHFLOWSINLOCALCURRENCYORUSTREASURYBONDRATEIFINDOLLARSDEVFIRM,GLOBALNONDIVERSIFIABLERISKFORGLOBALLYDIVERSIFIEDPORTFOLIOORWELLDIVERSIFIEDPORTFOLIOHIGHLYCORRELATEDWITHTHEGLOBALPORTFOLIORMRFDIFFERENCEINEXPECTEDRETURNONGLOBALMARKETPORTFOLIO,USEQUITYINDEX,ORBROADLYDEFINEDINDEXINTHELOCALCOUNTRYANDTHERFFSPPREMIUMSMALLFIRMSMUSTEARNTOATTRACTINVESTORSKEYPOINTWHENCAPITALMARKETSAREFULLYINTEGRATED,EQUITYINVESTORSHOLDGLOBALLYDIVERSIFIEDPORTFOLIOSANDTHEEQUITYPREMIUMISTHESAMEFORALLINVESTORSWHENMEASUREDINTHESAMECURRENCYESTIMATINGCOSTOFEQUITYFOREMERGINGCOUNTRIESEMERGINGCOUNTRIESMAYEXHIBITSIGNIFICANTDIFFERENCESINTHECOSTOFEQUITYDUETOSEGMENTEDCAPITALMARKETSTHEREFORE,THECAPMMAYBEWRITTENASFOLLOWSKE,EMRFEMFIRM,GLOBALRCOUNTRYRFFSPCRPWHERERFLOCALRISKFREERATEORUSTREASURYBONDRATECONVERTEDTOALOCALNOMINALRATEIFCASHFLOWSAREINTHELOCALCURRENCYIFCASHFLOWSINDOLLARS,THEUSTREASURYRATERCOUNTRYRFDIFFERENCEBETWEENEXPECTEDRETURNONABROADLYDEFINEDEQUITYINDEXINTHELOCALCOUNTRYORINASIMILARCOUNTRYANDTHERISKFREERATEEMFIRM,GLOBALEMERGINGCOUNTRYFIRMSGLOBALBETACRPSPECIFICCOUNTRYRISKPREMIUMEXPRESSEDASDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHELOCALCOUNTRYSORASIMILARCOUNTRYSGOVERNMENTBONDRATEANDTHEUSTREASURYBONDRATEOFTHESAMEMATURITYFSPPREMIUMSMALLFIRMSMUSTEARNTOATTRACTINVESTORSKEYPOINTFOREMERGINGCOUNTRIES,THEEQUITYRISKPREMIUMMAYNOTREFLECTALLTHERISKASSOCIATEDWITHINVESTINGINTHATCOUNTRYANDTHECOSTOFEQUITYMAYHAVETOBEADJUSTEDFORSUCHTHINGSASPOLITICALRISKESTIMATINGTHECOSTOFDEBTFORDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES,THETARGETSLOCALORTHEACQUIRERSHOMECOUNTRYCOSTOFDEBTFOREMERGINGCOUNTRIES,THECOSTOFDEBTIEMFIRMISASFOLLOWSIEMFIRMRFCRPFRPWHERERFRISKFREERATESEEPRECEDINGSLIDECRPSPECIFICCOUNTRYRISKPREMIUMSEEPRECEDINGSLIDEFRPFIRMSDEFAULTRISKPREMIUMIE,ADDITIONALPREMIUMFORSIMILARFIRMSRATEDBYCREDITRATINGAGENCIESORESTIMATEDBYCOMPARINGINTERESTCOVERAGERATIOSUSEDBYRATINGAGENCIESTOTHEFIRMSINTERESTCOVERAGERATIOSTODETERMINEHOWTHEYWOULDRATETHEFIRMEVALUATINGEMERGINGCOUNTRYRISKUSINGSCENARIOPLANNINGRISKMAYBEINCORPORATEDINTOTHEVALUATIONBYCONSIDERINGALTERNATIVEECONOMICSCENARIOSFORTHEEMERGINGCOUNTRYPROJECTEDCASHFLOWSFORALTERNATIVESCENARIOSCOULDREFLECTDIFFERENTGDPGROWTHRATES,INFLATIONRATES,INTERESTRATES,FOREIGNEXCHANGERATES,ORALTERNATIVEPOLITICALCONDITIONSIFRISKISINCLUDEDBYCALCULATINGAWEIGHTEDAVERAGEOFALTERNATIVESCENARIOS,THEDISCOUNTRATESHOULDNOTBEADJUSTEDFORSPECIFICCOUNTRYRISKFINANCIALRETURNSTOCROSSBORDERMERGERSANDACQUISITIONSCOMBINED“EXCESS”FINANCIALRETURNS1INCLUDINGACQUIRERANDTARGETFIRMSHAREHOLDERSINMATRANSACTIONSWORLDWIDEAVERAGE15ONTHEANNOUNCEMENTDATERETURNSMAYVARYWITHTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEDEAL,EG,HOSTILEVERSUSFRIENDLYMOSTOFTHECOMBINEDFINANCIALRETURNISEARNEDBYTARGETFIRMSHAREHOLDERSACQUIRINGFIRMSHAREHOLDERSEXPERIENCE“EXCESS”FINANCIALRETURNSOF1TO15KEYPOINTCONTRARYTOCONVENTIONALWISDOM,ACQUISITIONSONAVERAGECREATEVALUEFORBOTHACQUIRERANDTARGETFIRMSHAREHOLDERS1EXCESSFINANCIALRETURNSARETHOSEREALIZEDOVERANDABOVEWHATWOULDHAVEBEENEARNEDHADNOACQUISITIONOCCURREDSOURCEJEFFREYNETTER,MIKESTEGEMOLLER,ANDMBABAJIDEWINTOKI,IMPLICATIONSOFDATASCREENSONMERGERANDACQUISITIONANALYSISALARGESAMPLESTUDYOFMERGERSANDACQUISITIONSFROM1992TO2009,REVIEWOFFINANCIALSTUDIES,24,2011,PP22422285RESULTSREFLECT311,894TRANSACTIONSBETWEEN1992AND2009NESTLEBUYSCONTROLLINGINTERESTINCHINESECANDYMAKERCASESTUDYBACKGROUNDACQUIRERNESTLECORPORATIONWORLDSLARGESTFOODCOMPANYNESTLEOPERATEDINCHINAFOR20YEARSANDCURRENTLYHASSALESOF33BILLIONOPERATES23PLANTSANDHAS14,000EMPLOYEESNESTLEINTENDSTOGROWEMERGINGMARKETSSHAREOFTOTALREVENUEFROMONETHIRDIN2010TO45BY2020TARGETHSUFUCHICHINASLARGESTCONFECTIONARYPRODUCTSMANUFACTURER800MILLIONINANNUALREVENUEAND91MILLIONINPROFIT66MARKETSHAREANDESTABLISHEDNATIONWIDEDISTRIBUTIONNETWORKANDRETAILOUTLETCHAINHSUFAMILYANDBARINGPRIVATEEQUITYASIAOWN57AND15OFSHARES,RESPECTIVELYREMAININGSHARESOWNEDBYNONFOUNDINGFAMILYANDNONINSTITUTIONALSHAREHOLDERSSOCALLEDINDEPENDENTSHAREHOLDERSANNOUNCEMENTDATEJULY11,2011SHARESTRADEDONSINGAPORESTOCKEXCHANGESELLAT21DISCOUNTTOCOMPARABLEFIRMSHAVEUNDERPERFORMEDPEERSDURINGLASTSEVERALYEARSDEALCHARACTERISTICSNESTLEOFFERPRICEEQUIVALENTTO17BILLIONUSDOLLARSFORA60OWNERSHIPSTAKE,WHICHREPRESENTED33TIMESHSUFUCHISANNUALREVENUENESTLETOBUY436OFFIRMSSHARESFROMINDEPENDENTSHAREHOLDERSFOR435SINGAPOREDOLLARSEQUIVALENTTO365USDOLLARSANDA165STAKEFROMTHEHSUFOUNDINGFAMILYTHEPURCHASEPRICEREPRESENTEDA24PREMIUMOVERTHE6MONTHSENDINGONJULY1,2011HSUFUCHISCURRENTCEOANDCHAIRMANWOULDCONTINUETOMANAGETHEFIRMPOTENTIALSYNERGIESFROMNESTLSPERSPECTIVEINCREASESEXPOSURETOCHINASFASTGROWINGCONSUMERMARKETPROVIDESAPLATFORMFORFUTUREACQUISITIONSINTHEFOODINDUSTRYINCHINAHSUFUCHISESTABLISHEDNATIONALDISTRIBUTIONNETWORKANDCHAINOFRETAILOUTLETSPROVIDESBARRIERTOENTRYFORPOTENTIALCOMPETITORSFROMHSUFUCHISPERSPECTIVEENABLESBOTHHSUFAMILYANDINDEPENDENTSHAREHOLDERSTO“CASHOUT”OFAPORTIONOFTHEIRINVESTMENTPROVIDESRESOURCESFORPOTENTIALINTERNATIONALEXPANSIONPROVIDESGLOBALBRANDANDDISTRIBUTIONNETWORKTOSUPPORTINTERNATIONALEXPANSIONCOMPARABLEVALUATIONMULTIPLESNESTLEPAID33TIMESHSUFUCHIS2010ANNUALREVENUECOMPARABLETRANSACTIONMULTIPLESUSBASEDKRAFTFOODSPAID24TIMESREVENUEFORBRITISHCANDYMAKER,CADBURY,IN2010USBASEDMARSCANDYCOMPANYACQUIREDUSGUMMANUFACTURERWRIGLEYCORPORATIONFOR42TIMESREVENUEIN2008FRENCHFOODMANUFACTURERPURCHASEDDUTCHRIVAL,NUMICO,FOR45TIMESSALESIN2007CASESTUDYDISCUSSIONQUESTIONS1WHATWERENESTLESMOTIVESFORACQUIRINGHSUFUCHIWHATWERENESTLSALTERNATIVESTOACQUIRINGHSUFUCHIWHYDOYOUBELIEVETHEYWERENOTPURSUED2WHATALTERNATIVESDIDTHEMAJORITYSHAREHOLDERSINHSUFUCHIHAVETOGROWTHEFIRMSPECULATEA
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