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1金程教育FRM上海强化班讲义信用风险强化习题讲师吴轶CFA,FRM,CQF,SII日期2009年10月地点上海北京深圳专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2吴轶职称金程教育学术研发总监,金程教育资深培训师,CFA(注册金融分析师),FRM(金融风险管理师),CQF(特许金融工程师),SII(英国证券投资分析师),复旦大学金融工程硕士,复旦大学财务管理学士,香港理工大学金融数学学士,中欧国际工商管理学院中国金融研究中心研究员,国家外汇管理局储备管理司风险管理处研究员,新加坡证券交易协会会员。授课目前为止,共讲授CFALEVELI40次,CFALEVELII20次,CFALEVEL5次,FRM交通银行内部培训班2次,公开班5次,CFRM交通银行内部培训班2次,复旦MBA宏观经济学二次,复旦IMBA国际财务管理二次,复旦博士生高等金融计量2次,复旦硕士生金融时间序列分析2次和金融风险管理2次。倍受赞誉。著作参与编写金融计量经济学教程;ISTP收入英文论文(独立作者)两篇;数量经济技术经济研究两篇论文;中国民营经济创新国际论坛出版英文会议论文一篇;第二届全国高等计量经济学年会出版会议论文一篇;高盛亚洲内部产品研发报告一份;花旗银行内部风险管理研究报告四篇;2007年全国博士生论坛管理学分论坛论文一等奖。客户国家外汇管理局,高盛集团(亚洲)有限公司,北京高华证券有限公司,花旗银行(中国)有限公司,莱曼兄弟(香港),德意志银行上海分行,交通银行总行。联系电话8613917952237EMAILWUYI4020YAHOOCOMCN专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUMEASURINGCREDITRISK2006FRM73THEBIDASKSPREADISADETERMINANTOFLIQUIDITYRISKREFLECTINGTHECOSTOFTHESUPPLYOFIMMEDIACYINAMARKETWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGARENOTVARIABLECOSTTODEALERSOFSUPPLYINGIMMEDIACYVARIABLECOSTSMEANTHATTHECOSTTODEALERSRISESASTHENUMBEROFTRANSACTIONSORTHEDEMANDFORIMMEDIACYRISESAPROCESSINGORDERFLOWCOSTSBCREDITSURVEILLANCECOSTSFORCOUNTERPARTYCREDITWORTHINESSCINVENTORYCARRYINGCOSTSDHEDGINGCOSTSANSWERB信用监督成本是必须支付的固定成本。其他项都是可变的,随着总量的变化而变化。3专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM95WHATWILLBETHELEASTEFFECTIVESTRESSTESTFORCREDITRISKACHANGINGDEFAULTCORRELATIONSBETWEENOBLIGORSBCHANGINGMARKETRATES,SUCHASINTERESTRATESANDFOREIGNEXCHANGERATESCCHANGINGLIQUIDITYFACTORS,SUCHASAVERAGETRADINGVOLUMESANDBIDOFFERSPREADSDCHANGINGCREDITSPREADSANDVOLATILITYANSWERB4专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTPD2007FRM60THESPREADONAONEYEARBBBRATEDBONDRELATIVETOTHERISKFREETREASURYOFSIMILARMATURITYIS2ITISESTIMATEDTHATTHECONTRIBUTIONTOTHISSPREADBYALLNONCREDITFACTORSEG,LIQUIDITYRISK,TAXESIS08ASSUMINGTHELOSSGIVENDEFAULTRATEFORTHEUNDERLYINGCREDITIS60,WHATIS,APPROXIMATELY,THEIMPLIEDDEFAULTPROBABILITYFORTHISBONDA333B500C300D200ANSWERB5专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM41CONSIDERAPORTFOLIOOFSIXEQUALLYWEIGHTEDBONDSEACHBONDHASADEFAULTPROBABILITYOF4PERANNUM,ANDTHEDEFAULTSAREINDEPENDENTOFEACHOTHERWHATISTHEPROBABILITYTHATTHISPORTFOLIOWILLSEEITSFIRSTDEFAULTBYTHEENDOFTHESECONDYEARASSUMETHESAMEDEFAULTPROBABILITIESFORFIRSTANDSECONDYEARSFORTHESURVIVINGBONDSA43B39C78D24ANSWERD6专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUEXPOSUREATDEFAULTEAD2007FRM52BETABANKOWNSAPORTFOLIOOF10AARATEDBONDSFROM10DIFFERENTISSUERSWITHATOTALVALUEOFUSD200MILLIONTHEONEYEARPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTFOREACHISSUERIS5,ANDTHERECOVERYRATEFOREACHISSUEEQUALS40THEONEYEAREXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEPORTFOLIOISAUSD50MILLIONBUSD80MILLIONCUSD60MILLIONDUSD40MILLIONANSWERC7专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2007FRM66SUPPOSETHERATEONCOMPANYASONEYEARZEROCOUPONBONDIS100ANDTHEONEYEARTBILLRATEIS80ASSUMETHETBILLISRISKLESSANDTHEPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTOFCOMPANYASBONDIS10WHATISTHELOSSGIVENDEFAULTOFCOMPANYABONDA182B818C200D800ANSWERA8专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM90UNDERTHECOMPREHENSIVEAPPROACHFORTHEFOUNDATIONINTERNALRATINGSBASEDAPPROACHUNDERBASE2,WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGMETHODSISUSEDFORCALCULATINGTHEEFFECTIVELOSSGIVENDEFAULTLGDWHERELGDISTHEEFFECTIVELOSSGIVENDEFAULTCONSIDERINGRISKMITIGATIONMEASURESLGDISTHATOFTHESENIORUNSECUREDEXPOSUREBEFORERECOGNITIONOFCOLLATERAL45EISTHECURRENTVALUEOFTHEEXPOSUREIECASHLENTORSECURITIESLENTORPOSTEDEISTHEEXPOSUREVALUEAFTERRISKMITIGATIONALGDLGDE/EBLGDLGDEECLGDLGDEEDLGDLGDEEANSWERA9专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM122CONSIDERTWOPORTFOLIOSONEWITHUSD100MILLIONCREDITEXPOSURETOASINGLEBRATEDCOUNTERPARTYTHESECONDWITHUSD100MILLIONINCREDITEXPOSURESPLITEVENLYBETWEEN50BRATEDCOUNTERPARTIESWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGISCORRECTATHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOISGREATERTHANTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIOANDTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOISGREATERTHANTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIOBTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOISGREATERTHANTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIOANDTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOISEQUALTOTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIOCTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOEQUALTOTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIOANDTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOISEQUALTOTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIODTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOEQUALTOTHEEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIOANDTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHEFIRSTPORTFOLIOISGREATERTHANTHEUNEXPECTEDLOSSOFTHESECONDPORTFOLIO10专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUANSWERD如果信用产品的相关性下降,则信用风险下降。专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM139SUPPOSEBANKASELLSEXPOSUREINAMORTGAGEPORTFOLIOTOBANKBINORDERTODETERMINETHECREDITRISKOFSUCHATRANSACTION,ALLOFTHEFOLLOWINGMUSTBETAKENINTOACCOUNTEXCEPTAPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTOFTHEMORTGAGEPORTFOLIOBPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTOFBANKBCCORRELATIONBETWEENTHEDEFAULTOFBANKBANDTHEMORTGAGEPORTFOLIODCORRELATIONBETWEENBANKAANDBANKBANSWERD12专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM114YOUHAVEACREDITEXPOSURETOBANKTHREEWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGACTIONSWILLNOTREDUCEHISEXPOSUREASHORTINGTHEBONDSOFBANKTHREEBBUYINGPUTSONTHEEQUITYOFBANKTHREECENTERINGACREDITDEFAULTSWAPWITHBANKTHREEDOBTAININGCOLLATERALFROMBANKTHREEANSWERC13专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUISDA2006FRM102WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGISNOTCONSIDEREDANEVENTOFDEFAULTONTHEREFERENCEASSETUNDERLYINGACREDITDEFAULTSWAP,WITHTHE2003ISDADOCUMENTATIONABANKRUPTCYBRESTRUCTURINGCRATINGAGENCYDOWNGRADEDOBLIGATIONACCELERATIONANSWERCRATINGDOWNGRADE不是信用风险。14专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDURECOVERYRATE2007FRM49THEMANAGEMENTOFABANKWANTSTOLIMITTHECREDITLOSSTOASPECIFICSECTORWITHIN5CONCENTRATIONLIMITISTHEMAXIMUMLOSSASAPERCENTAGEOFCAPITALDIVIDEDBYTHEINVERSEOFTHELOANLOSSRATEWITHANESTIMATEDRECOVERYRATEOF60,WHATSHOULDTHECONCENTRATIONLIMITTOTHATSECTORBEASAPERCENTAGEOFCAPITALA5B125C833D3ANSWERC15583360专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM116WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGISNOTACOMMONLYUSEDMETHODFORGENERATINGARECOVERYRATEFUNCTIONANONPARAMETRICKERNELESTIMATIONBCUBICSPLINEESTIMATIONCASSUMETHERECOVERYRATEFOLLOWSABETADISTRIBUTIONDESTIMATECONDITIONALDENSITIESWITHGENERALIZEDMETHODOFMOMENTSANSWERBCUBICSPLINE估计是画出YIELDCURVE使用的方法。16专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUCUMULATIVEANDMARGINALDEFAULTRATES2007FRM51MRROSENQVIST,ASSETMANAGERATBCDBANK,HOLDSAPORTFOLIOOFSEK200MILLIONTHEPORTFOLIOCONSISTSOFBBBRATEDBONDSASSUMETHATTHEONEYEARPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTIS4,THERECOVERYRATEIS60,ANDDEFAULTAREUNCORRELATEDOVERYEARSWHATISTHETWOYEARCUMULATIVEEXPECTEDCREDITLOSSONMRROSENQVISTSPORTFOLIOASEK640MILLIONBSEK635MILLIONCSEK960MILLIONDSEK948MILLIONANSWERB17专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM15ASSUMETHEMARGINALMONTHLYDEFAULTRATESCONDITIONALONNOPREVIOUSDEFAULTFORAFIRMARE2EACHMONTHDURINGTHEFIRSTYEARAND3EACHMONTHDURINGTHESECONDYEARWHATISTHEMARGINALPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTINGOVERTHETHESECONDYEAR,CONDITIONALONNOTHAVINGDEFAULTEDTHEFIRSTYEARAINSUFFICIENTINFORMATIONTOANSWERTHEQUESTIONB306C360D474ANSWERB(12)12(13)12(12)12(1D)SURVIVALRATE18专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUCREDITRATING2006FRM103WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGISNOTMODELINGAPPROACHTOCREDITSCORINGAKNEARESTNEIGHBORCLASSIFIERMODELSBLOGITANDPROFITMODELSCFISHERLINEARDISCRIMINATESANALYSISDBAYESIANVECTORAUTOREGRESSIONANSWERD第四种不是信用评分的方式。19专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM111WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGISNOTACORRECTSTATEMENTABOUTINTERNALCREDITRATINGSATHE“ATTHEPOINTINTIME”APPROACHMAKESHEAVYUSEOFECONOMETRICMODELINGTHATRELATESCURRENTFINANCIALVARIABLESTOESTIMATEDDEFAULTRISKBTHE“THROUGHTHECYCLE”APPROACHISFORWARDLOOKINGANDATTEMPTSTOINCORPORATEFUTUREECONOMICSCENARIOSINTOCURRENTDEFAULTRISKESTIMATESC“ATTHEPOINTINTIME”CREDITSCORESVOLATILITYISMUCHHIGHERTHAN“THROUGHTHECYCLE”SCOREVOLATILITYDASOUNDINTERNALSYSTEMUSES“ATTHEPOINTINTIME”SCORINGFORSMALLTOMEDIUMSIZEDCOMPANIESANDPRIVATEFIRMSAND“THROUGHTHECYCLE”SCORINGFORLARGEFIRMSANSWERB20专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM79WITHREGARDTOEVALUATINGSOVEREIGNRISK,WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGSTATEMENTSISINCORRECTABANKRUPTCYLAWDOESNOTTYPICALLYPROTECTINVESTORSFROMSOVEREIGNRISKBDEBTREPUDIATIONISAPOSTPONEMENTOFALLCURRENTANDFUTUREFOREIGNDEBTOBLIGATIONSOFABORROWERCDEBTRESCHEDULINGOCCURSWHENAGROUPOFCREDITORSDECLARESAMORATORIUMONDEBTOBLIGATIONSANDSEEKSTORESCHEDULETERMSDSOVEREIGNRISKCANBEACAUSEOFDEFAULTINANONGOVERNMENTALBORROWEROFHIGHCREDITQUALITYANSWERB21专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM74MOODYSESTIMATESTHEAVERAGERECOVERYRATEFORSENIORUNSECUREDDEBTTOBENEARESTTOA20B40C60D80ANSWERATHERECOVERYRATEONLOANSISTYPICALLYHIGHERTHANTHATONBONDSHENCE,THECREDITRATING,IFITINVOLVESBOTHPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTANDRECOVERY,SHOULDBEHIGHERFORLOANSTHANFORBONDS22专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM59ASSUMINGTHE1YEARTBILLRATEOF425ANDTHERATEON1YEARZEROCOUPONCORPORATEBONDSIS775,WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGNUMBERSISCLOSESTTOTHEPROBABILITYTHATACORPORATELOANWILLBEREPAIDFULLYASSUMINGTHATTHECREDITSPREADISDUETOFIRMSPECIFICCREDITRISKALONEA9675B325C9621D379ANSWERA23专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUTRANSITIONMATRIX2007FRM87CONSIDERTHEFOLLOWINGONEPERIODTRANSITIONMATRIXIFACOMPANYISORIGINALLYINSTATEA,WHATISTHEPROBABILITYTHATTHECOMPANYWILLHAVEDEFAULTEDSTRICTLYBEFORETHEFOURTHTRANSITIONPERIODFROMNOWA0500B1875C1375D087524专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUANSWERCAABD0950050100048ABBD00508010004ABDD005010005SOADPROBABILITY0004800040005137525专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUTHEMERTONMODEL2005FRM101WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGSTATEMENTSABOUTTHETERMSTRUCTUREOFCREDITSPREADSINMERTONSMODELISCORRECTATHETERMSTRUCTUREOFCREDITSPREADSDEPENDSONTHEINITIALLEVERAGEOFTHEFIRMTHOSEWITHTHEHIGHESTLEVERAGECOULDHAVEADOWNWARDSLOPINGCREDITYIELDCURVE,WHILERELATIVELYSAFEFIRMSWOULDHAVEANUPWARDSLOPINGCURVEBTHETERMSTRUCTUREOFCREDITSPREADSDEPENDSONTHETREASURYTERMSTRUCTUREWHENTHETREASURYCURVEISSTEEP,THEEXPECTEDINCREASEINRATESMAKESTHEPRESENTVALUEOFCOUPONSSMALLERANDREDUCESTHEVALUEOFTHEDEBTINFUTUREPERIODS,MAKINGTHECREDITTERMSTRUCTUREUPWARDSLOPINGCTHETERMSTRUCTUREOFCREDITSPREADSISALWAYSUPWARDSLOPINGBECAUSEBONDHOLDERSCANNEVERRECEIVEMORETHANPARBUTMIGHTLOSEDUETODEFAULTANDTHOSEEXPECTEDLOSSESINCREASEWITHTHEBONDSMATURITYDTHETERMSTRUCTUREOFCREDITSPREADSISFLATBECAUSEMERTONSMODELASSUMESACONSTANTINTERESTRATEANSWERC26专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUKMVMODEL2007FRM111YOUDONTHAVEACCESSTOKMVSDATAYOURBOSSWANTSYOUTOESTIMATETHEPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTOFACREDITTODOSO,YOUUSETHEMERTONMODELBECAUSETHECREDITYOUARECONSIDERINGHASNOSYSTEMATICRISKINMERTONSMODEL,THEDISTANCETODEFAULTANDEXPECTEDDEFAULTFREQUENCYAREANEGATIVELYANDLINEARLYRELATEDBPOSITIVELYANDLINEARLYRELATEDCNEGATIVELYANDNONLINEARLYRELATEDDPOSITIVELYANDNONLINEARLYRELATEDANSWERC27专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM49COMPANYYHASASSETSVALUEDATUSD205MILLIONTHEVALUEOFITSSHORTTERMDEBTISUSD28MILLION,THEBOOKVALUEOFITSLONGTERMDEBTISUSD115MILLION,ANDTHEVOLATILITYOFITSASSETSISUSD58MILLIONCALCULATETHEDISTANCETODEFAULTUSINGTHEKMVAPPROACHA107B147C155D305ANSWERAKMVVK/SIGMAV20511528/58107根据HANDBOOK定义,债券的价值长期债券的价值05短期债券的帐面价值,KMV2051151/228/58206在本题中,GARP协会采用了不除以2的做法。28专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM56WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGVARIABLESISNOTUSEDINTHEKMVMODELTOESTIMATEAFIRMSPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTATHEBOOKVALUEOFTHEFIRMSEQUITYBTHE1ITMSSTOCKPRICEVOLATILITYCTHEMARKETVALUEOFTHEFIRMSEQUITYDTHEMARKETVALUEOFTHEFIRMSDEBTANSWERA29专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM108THEKMVMODELPRODUCESAMEASURECALLEDEXPECTEDDEFAULTFREQUENCYWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGSTATEMENTSABOUTTHISVARIABLEISCORRECTAITDECREASESWHENTHELEVERAGEOFTHEFIRMFALLSBITINCREASESWHENTHESTOCKPRICEOFTHEFIRMHASBEENRISINGCITISTHERISKNEUTRALPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTFROMMERTONSMODELDITTELLSINVESTORSHOWTHEDEFAULTRISKOFABONDISCORRELATEDWITHTHEDEFAULTRISKOFOTHERBONDSINTHEPORTFOLIOANSWERA30专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUDISTRIBUTIONOFCREDITEXPOSURE2005FRM9INTHECREDITRISKMODEL,DEFAULTEVENTSAREASSUMEDTOFOLLOWAPOISSONDISTRIBUTIONASSUMETHEAVERAGENUMBEROFDEFAULTSINAPORTFOLIOISEQUALTOFIVEWHATISTHEPROBABILITYTHATFOURDEFAULTSWILLOCCUROVERTHENEXTYEARA1563B1755C954DNOTENOUGHINFORMATIONTOANSWERTHEQUESTIONANSWERB31专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM53INTHECREDITRISKMODEL,THELOSSDISTRIBUTIONFORABROADLYDIVERSIFIEDPORTFOLIOISDERIVEDBYASEPARATINGLOSSESINTOBANDS,WITHTHELEVELOFEXPOSUREINEACHBANDREPRESENTEDBYARANGEOFAMOUNTSBSEPARATINGLOSSESINTOBANDS,WITHTHELEVELOFEXPOSUREINEACHBANDREPRESENTEDBYASINGLENUMBERCSEPARATINGLOSSESINTOBANDSBASEDONTHEPROBABILITYOFDEFAULTFOREACHOBLIGOROVERONEYEARDSEPARATINGLOSSESINTOBANDSBASEDONTHEDEFAULTRATEVOLATILITYFOREACHOBLIGORANSWERA32专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUEXPECTEDCREDITEXPOSURE2007FRM79ASPARTOFACURRENCYHEDGINGSTRATEGY,AUSPORTFOLIOMANAGERENTEREDAONEYEARFORWARDCONTRACTWITHABANKTODELIVEREUR5,000,000FORUSDATTHEENDOFTHEYEARATTHEBEGINNINGOFTHEYEAR,THEONEYEARFORWARDRATEWAS09216USD/EURSIXMONTHSINTOTHECONTRACT,THESPOTRATEIS09201USD/EUR,THEUSDINTERESTRATEIS65,ANDTHEEURINTERESTRATEIS625IFTHECURRENTSPOTRATE09201USD/EURWERETOCONTINUEFORTHENEXTSIXMONTHS,WHATISTHECREDITRISKTHATTHEPORTFOLIOMANAGERWOULDBEARATMATURITYAUSD7,264BUSD7,042CUSD7,500DUSD7,273ANSWERC信用暴露风险09216092015000000750033专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM20WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGREDUCESACREDITEXPOSUREBYSHORTENINGTHEEFFECTIVEMATURITYOFAPOSITIONILIQUIDITYPUTIICREDITTRIGGERABOTHIANDIIBIONLYCIIONLYDNEITHERINORIIANSWERAI和II都是要求提前归还现金,则MATURITY(到期时间)减少。34专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUCREDITEXPOSUREMODIFIERS2005FRM14SYLVIA,APORTFOLIOMANAGER,ESTABLISHEDAYANKEEBONDPORTFOLIOHOWEVER,SHEWANTSTOHEDGETHECREDITANDINTERESTRATERISKOFHERPORTFOLIOWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGDERIVATIVESWILLBESTFITSYLVIASNEEDAATOTALRETURNSWAPBACREDITDEFAULTSWAPCACREDITSPREADOPTIONDACURRENCYSWAPANSWERA35专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM91YOUHAVEAUSD50MILLIONSHORTATTHEMONEYEUR/USDPUTOPTIONPOSITIONANDASHORTATTHEMONEYUSD50MILLIONFXFORWARDEUR/USDPOSITIONWITHABCBANKWHICHPOSITIONADDSMORECREDITRISKATHEFXOPTIONBTHEFXFORWARDCTHEYBOTHHAVEAPPROXIMATELYTHESAMECREDITRISKASTHENOTIONALAMOUNTANDTHECOUNTERPARTYARETHESAMEDTHEREISNOTENOUGHINFORMATIONTOCOMETOACONCLUSIONANSWERB36专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2005FRM96WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGSTATEMENTSCORRECTLYDESCRIBESTHEIMPACTOFSIGNINGANETTINGAGREEMENTWITHACOUNTERPARTYAITWILLINCREASEORHAVENOEFFECTONTHETOTALCREDITEXPOSUREBITWILLDECREASEORHAVENOEFFECTONTHETOTALCREDITEXPOSURECITWILLINCREASEEXPOSUREIFEXPOSUREISNETLONGANDDECREASEEXPOSUREIFITISNETSHORTDITSIMPACTISIMPOSSIBLETODETERMINEBASEDONTHEAVAILABLEINFORMATIONANSWERB37专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUHEDGINGPRICINGTHECREDITDERIVATIVES2007FRM45BANKBHASAEUR100MILLIONLOANPORTFOLIOANDHASSETASIDEARESERVETOCOVERTHEFIRSTEUR20MILLIONINDEFAULTRELATEDLOSSESIFTHEBANKWANTSTOACQUIREPROTECTIONFORTHEREMAININGEUR80MILLIONINRISKEXPOSURE,WHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGSOLUTIONSWOULDWORKANDWOULDEXPOSETHEBANKTOTHELEASTAMOUNTOFCOUNTERPARTYRISKAISSUEACREDITLINKEDNOTEINWHICHINTERESTANDPRINCIPALMAYBEWITHHELDFROMINVESTORSTOCOVERUPTOEUR80MILLIONINLOSSESABOVETHEFIRSTEUR20MILLIONONTHELOANPORTFOLIOBBUYCREDITPROTECTIONINASENIORSUBORDINATEDCREDITDEFAULTSWAPTHATCOVERSEUR80MILLIONINLOSSESABOVETHEFIRSTEUR20MILLIONCBUYCREDITINSURANCEFORLOSSESUPTOEUR80MILLIONINEXCESSOFEUR20MILLIONONTHELOANPORTFOLIODALLTHREEOFTHEABOVECHOICESWORKANDEXPOSETHEBANKTOTHESAMEAMOUNTOFCOUNTERPARTYRISKANSWERA38专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2007FRM55SUPPOSETHERETURNONUSTREASURIESIS3ANDARISKYBONDISCURRENCYYIELDING15ATRADERYOUSUPERVISECLAIMSTHATHEWOULDBEABLETOMAKEANARBITRAGEEARNING5USINGUSTREASURIES,THERISKYBOND,ANDTHECREDITDEFAULTSWAPWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGCOULDBETHETRADERSSTRATEGY,ANDWHATISTHECREDITDEFAULTSWAPPREMIUMASSUMETHEREARENOTRANSACTIONCOSTSAGOLONGTHETREASURY,SHORTTHERISKYBOND,ANDSELLTHECREDITDEFAULTSWAPWITHPREMIUMOF7BGOLONGTHETREASURY,SHORTTHERISKYBOND,ANDBUYTHECREDITDEFAULTSWAPWITHPREMIUMOF6CSHORTTHETREASURY,INVESTINTHERISKYBOND,ANDBUYTHECREDITDEFAULTSWAPWITHPREMIUMOF7DSHORTTHETREASURY,INVESTINTHERISKYBOND,ANDSELLTHECREDITDEFAULTSWAPWITHPREMIUMOF639专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUANSWERC首先,概念上,买入风险债券买入无风险债券卖出CDS,卖出风险债券卖出无风险债券买入CDS,则B、D排除,剩下A、C;再判断三者之间的收益情况,(C)中无风险债券空头则收益率为3,风险债券多头收益率为15,买入CDS收益为7,则总收益为5,符合题意。40专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2007FRM110BANKAMAKESAUSD10MILLIONFIVEYEARLOANANDWANTSTOOFFSETTHECREDITEXPOSURETOTHEOBLIGORAFIVEYEARCREDITDEFAULTSWAPCDSWITHTHELOANASTHEREFERENCEASSETTRADESONTHEMARKETATASWAPPREMIUMOF50BASISPOINTSPAIDQUARTERLYINORDERTOHEDGEITSCREDITEXPOSURE,BANKAASELLSTHEFIVEYEARCDSANDRECEIVESAQUARTERLYPAYMENTOFUSD50,000BBUYSTHEFIVEYEARCDSANDMAKESAQUARTERLYPAYMENTOFUSD12,500CBUYSTHEFIVEYEARCDSANDRECEIVESAQUARTERLYPAYMENTOFUSD12,500DSELLSTHEFIVEYEARCDSANDMAKESAQUARTERLYPAYMENTOFUSD50,000ANSWERBINORDERTOHEDGE,BANKANEEDSTOBUYCDS,THENUSED12500PAIDAQUARTER41专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2007FRM74ATRADERWHOSERISKYOUAREMONITORINGTELLSYOUTHATHEWANTSTOBENEFITFROMACREDITSPREADWIDENINGDUETOARECESSIONWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGWOULDBEGOODTRADESFORHISSTRATEGYASHORTRISKYBONDSANDGOLONGRISKFREEBONDSATTHEBEGINNINGOFTHERECESSIONBGOLONGRISKYBONDSANDSHORTRISKFREEBONDSATTHEBEGINNINGOFTHERECESSIONCSELLCREDITDEFAULTSWAPSONBONDSWITHLOWCREDITQUALITYANDGOLONGLOWCREDITQUALITYBONDSDSELLCREDITDEFAULTSWAPSONBONDSWITHALOWCREDITQUALITYANDBUYCREDITDEFAULTSWAPSONBONDSWITHAHIGHERCREDITQUALITYATTHEBEGINNINGOFTHERECESSIONANSWERA在RECESSION时,价差变大,RISKYBONDS的价格下降,RISKFREEBONDS的价格上升42专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM39WHATARETHEBENEFITSOFNOVATIONABOTHPARTIESAREALLOWEDTOWALKAWAYFROMTHECONTRACTINTHEEVENTOFDEFAULTBINABILATERALCONTRACT,ITISSPECIFIEDTHATONDEFAULT,THENONDEFAULTINGPARTYNETSGAINSANDLOSSESWITHTHEDEFAULTINGCOUNTERPARTYTOASINGLEPAYMENTFORALLCOVEREDTRANSACTIONSCFINANCIALMARKETCONTRACTSCANBETERMINATEDUPONANEVENTOFDEFAULTPRIORTOTHEBANKRUPTCYPROCESSDOBLIGATIONSAREAMALGAMATEDWITHOTHERSANSWERDNOVATION中所有的负债可以累积在一起计算净额43专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDU2006FRM42WALLACE,ANEMERGINGMARKETBONDTRADER,ISHOLDINGA5YEARUSDMALAYSIANCORPORATEBONDINHISBOOKHEISCONCERNEDABOUTTHERISKOFHISPOSITIONWHICHOFTHEFOLLOWINGSTATEMENTSCONCERNINGTHERISKOFHISPOSITIONISINCORRECTATHECORPORATEBONDCOULDBEUPGRADEDSOTHATITWOULDHAVEAHIGHERRATINGTHANMALAYSIANSOVEREIGNDEBT,BUTITISHIGHLYUNLIKELYBBUYINGPROTECTIONWITHACDSWOULDHEDGETHECORPORATEBONDPOSITIONAGAINSTSOMERISKSBUTITWOULDDOAPOORJOBOFHEDGINGTHEPOSITIONIFTHEREISADROPINLIQUIDITYFOREMERGINGMARKETSOVEREIGNBONDSCASHORTPOSITIONINRINGGITSSOVEREIGNBONDFROMMALAYSIAWOULDALWAYSHELPHEDGETHECORPORATEBONDAGAINSTCURRENCYRISKIFTHECORPORATIONISANEXPORTERDASHORTPOSITIONINA5YEARUSTREASURYANDBUYINGPROTECTIONONTHECORPORATEBONDUSINGACDSWOULDBEABETTERHEDGETHANJUSTBUYINGPROTECTIONONTHECORPORATEBOND44专业来自百分百的投入COPYRIGHT2009BYGFEDUANSWERC一个债券的收益无风险收益率国家风险信用风险无风险收益率国家风险信用风险注无外汇风险因为是美元标明面值的(A)选项正确,企业债的信用级别很可能比国家信用级别高,但是,我们优先考虑的是国家信
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