Making 3G Work in Vietnam.ppt

1、Making 3G Work in Vietnam,Presented by: Marc Daniel Einstein Senior Industry Analyst October 5th, 2008 Hanoi, Vietnam,Todays Agenda,Section 1: Vietnamese Mobile Market Overview Section 2: 3G Market Overview Section 3: 3G Services & Applications Section 4: Making 3G Work in Vietnam,Section 1: Vietnam

2、ese Mobile Market Overview,Vietnams Telecommunications Market in Context,Vietnams Mobile Market is at a medium level of maturity for an emerging market.,Vietnam Mobile Market Forecast,Vietnam will continue to be one of the fastest growing mobile markets in terms of net subscriber additions. Vietnam

3、will have 4% of all AP subs by 2013.,Vietnam Mobile ARPU Evolution,As most of Vietnams future mobile market growth will come from the rural and youth Segments, we believe that the blended market ARPU will breach the US$3 level by 2013,We predict that the 2013 ARPU will only be 25% of its 2005 value,

4、Asia Pacific ARPU vs. EBITDA Margin Comparison,This decline, however, does not necessarily correspond to low profitability, especially for emerging market incumbent operators,Emerging Market Incumbents,Emerging Market Challengers,Developed Market Operators,But Low ARPUs are Starting to Take a Toll,W

5、hile some emerging market operators in Asia are maintaining of slightly improving EBITDA margins via wireless broadband strategies and network outsourcing, many are experiencing large declines in ARPUs which are putting pressure on margins.,+3.3%,+1.2%,-1.5%,-4.1%,-9.0%,-20.9%,-21.0%,Section 2: 3G O

6、verview,3G Deployments Asia Pacific,3G Subscriber Update,Japan & South Korea comprised 80% of the APAC 3G Subscriber Base in 2007,000 subscribers,3.5G vs. 4G Technology Comparison,LTE,HSPA+,LTE will offer significant advantages over 3.5G in terms of data rates, latency, transmission time interval, a

7、nd is more flexible with spectrum blocks.,Latency,Data Rates,TTI,Spectrum,144/57Mbps DL/UL,42/11Mbps DL/UL,10ms,50ms,2ms,.05ms,5MHz Blocks,Flexible,LTE Time to Market,LTE is still in the laboratory and early field testing phases as vendors such have publicly demonstrated live LTE handovers. Going fo

8、rward we expect limited deployments in 2011 with wider-scale launches by 2012.,Section 3: Making 3G Work in Vietnam,APAC Household Penetrations Rates,Low-bandwidth, high ARPU wireline broadband markets are ripe for competition from 4G, even in developed markets.,PLDT Wireless Broadband Strategy,Exhi

9、bit: PLDTs Broadband Service Portfolio,Exhibit: PLDTs Broadband Subscriber Uptake by Service, 2005-2007,The PLDT has been able to diversify its revenue streams in the broadband market by deploying wireless solutions for last-mile connectivity: GPRS/EDGE, HSPA, WiFi and eventually WiMax are all used

10、to compensate for low fixed-line penetration (4%) In 2007 wireless broadband subscribers overtook wired subscribers (only case in the world) Product bundling: New subscribers can purchase a laptop with a wireless data card and service plan from the operator,Clearwire Wireline to Wireless Churn,Clear

11、wire, one of the largest WiMAX operators in the world and based in the USA reported that a surprising 59% of its wireless broadband subscriber base actually churned from a fixed-line broadband service, driven by both lower price points and the added feature of mobility.,Mobile Advertising Blyk Mobil

12、e,Blyk Mobile, an MVNO in the UK, is the first operator globally to introduce a 100% ad-funded mobile service. The service allows 16-24 year olds to receive 243 text messages and 43 voice minutes to any network in the UK every month, and additional minutes cost and messages cost 0.15 and 0.15 respec

13、tively. The company has picked up advertisers such as McDonalds, Microsoft and Adidas and boasts 100,000 subscribers.,Section 4: Making 3G Work in Vietnam,What does 3G Mean for Vietnam?,Vietnams mobile market has rapidly caught up with other emerging markets in Asia but the broadband market still la

14、gs behind. Emerging market wireless operators are facing pressure on margins which will entice them to aggressively enter the broadband market. 3G technology has reached a point where it can adequately compete with wireline service in Vietnam. Service offerings should first focus on ACCESS then VAS. A higher broadband penetration is crucial