IRAQ重建咨询报告

1、OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ,OPPORTUNITY,Doing Business in Iraq,Amman, 5,th,June 2003,Achmed Al-Shahrabani,McKinsey Country Watch; EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003,2002,50-60,25-35,1980,DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP*,-,1980 TO 2002,Over the past decade, Iraqs real GDP fell by 50%,USD billion,ESTIMATE,-5

2、0%,GDP estimates,for 2002 subject,to wide variation,(USD 24-60 billion),*,Purchasing power parity method, current prices,Source:,CIA World Factbook; Country Watch,2002,3.8-4.5,1.0-1.4,1980,ESTIMATE,DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP*,PER CAPITA -,1980 TO 2002, and purchasing power parity on individual le

3、vel even further,USD thousands,GDP/capita,estimates,subject to wide,variation (USD,1.000-2.500),-70%,* Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 million,Source:,EIU country profile Iraq,1,184,1,730,1,270,8,730,1,150,Jordan,Iran,Iraq,Syria,*,ESTIMATE,COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA -,2002,I

4、raqs current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and Iran,USD thousands,Source:,EIU country data,External debt,$bn,22.3,8.2,8.2,Iraq,Syria,Jordan,Iran,230-485,10,91,113,% of GPD,60-130,Main causes of,uncertainty are,?,Accrued interest,?,“Assistance”,funds in Iran-,Iraq war,?,Claims following,Gulf

5、war 1991,ESTIMATE,COMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES -,2001,Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt,AGENDA,?,Overview Iraq,?,Economic scenarios for Iraq,?,Recent developments,Source:,McKinsey,“Good standard”,1,?,Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi,economy grows modestly

6、at a CAGR of,3-5%,over the next 10 years (overall,GDP growth incl. oil 9-11%),“Best in Class”,2,?,Assumes the non-oil part of the the Iraqi,economy grows strongly at a CAGR of,7-9%,over the next 10 years (overall,GDP growth incl. oil 11-13%),“Distinctive”,3,?,Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi

7、,economy grows aggressively at a,CAGR,12-15%,over the next 10 years,(overall GDP growth incl. oil 13-15%),ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,THREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS,Iraqs In the World Class scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could,reach 4,000 USD by 2013,Non-oil,Sectors,?,Oil production level 2008,?,Oil product

8、ion level 2013,?,4-5 million barrels per day,?,6-7 million barrels per day,Oil,Sector,+,*) Population in 2003= 24 million, 2008=29 million, 2013=33 million,Source:,McKinsey,GDP development 2003-,2013,(in bn USD),GDP per capita* 2003-2013,(in 000 USD),ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,THREE POTENTIAL DEVELOPME

9、NT SCENARIOS,In the distinctive scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach,4,000 USD by 2013,1,“Good Standard”,1.8-2.2,2.2-2.6,2003,2013,2008,1.2,53-63,73-86,2003,2013,2008,30,14%,6%,11%,3%,2,“Best in class”,2.0-2.3,2.5-2.9,2003,2013,2008,1.2,57-67,83-98,2003,2013,2008,30,16%,8%,12%,5%,3,“Distinctive

10、”,2.2-2.6,3.1-3.8,2003,2013,2008,1.2,63-75,102-126,2003,2013,2008,30,18%,11%,15%,8%,AGENDA,?,Overview Iraq,?,Economic scenarios for Iraq,?,Required investments,*,Assuming a capital productivity of 0.2,Source:,McKinsey analysis,GDP 2003,(bn USD),30,200-300,Investment required*,(bn USD),1,GDP 2013,(bn

11、 USD),70-90,Investment required*,(bn USD),2,250-350,GDP 2013,(bn USD),80-100,Investment required*,(bn USD),3,350-500,GDP 2013,bn USD,100-130,ESTIMATE OF REQUIRED,INVESTMENTS INTO,IRAQ OVER THE NEXT,DECADE,To achieve the World Class scenario Iraqs economy requires,USD 250-350 billion in investments,

12、most of which will have to,be FDI, over the next decade,ESTIMATE,FOR DISCUSSION,Assuming an average,capital productivity of,0.2,Source:,McKinsey,Oil & gas,?,Reestablishing and increasing oil production,capacity to 6-7 million barrels per day by 2010,USD 35-40,billion,Utilities,?,Re-construction of b

13、asic infrastructure such as,transport facilities, telecommunications and,utilities (power capacity currently at 1.800MW,compared to 9.500MW pre 1990),USD 10-15,billion just for,electricity and,telecom,Estimates for rebuilding Iraq vary from,about $20 billion a year for several years,to as much as $6

14、00 billion over a decade,because the scale of reconstruction is,difficult to estimate,Education,?,Rebuilding and upgrading of primary, secondary,and tertiary educational institutions,USD 6-12,billion,Health care,?,Reestablishing pre 1980 health care facilities and,standards,USD 10-20,billion,ESTIMAT

15、E,Transport,infrastructure,?,Rebuilding 40,000 km of paved roads, 3 main,railway lines, 3 main airports, 2 ports,Several,billions,Housing/offices,?,Rebuilding Iraqs basic hard infrastructure will be challenging,and will require substantial investments over the next decade,ESTIMATED INVESTMENT RQUIRE

16、MENTS,Industrial,infrastructure,?,Rebuilding Iraqs industrial base (petrochemical,building materials, mining, consumer goods, etc.),?,Source:,McKinsey,3.,Create an enabling and open economic,environment,Address key economic governance,issues such as taxation, land,ownership, company laws, industry,d

17、e-/regulation and investor protection,The implemented,political and,economic,governance model,will be essential for,building investor,confidence,Implementing the right long,-term economic governance,model will be essential for attracting the foreign investment,necessary to rebuild Iraq,FOR DISCUSSIO

18、N,KEY REQUIREMENTS TO ATTRACT,FOREIGN INVESTMENTS,1.,Build a constitutional state,Implement the key building blocks for,an constitutional state with an,independent judicial system,2.,Establish an accountable civil service,Build the foundation for an efficient,effective and accountable,administration,Source:,Press clippings,?,How do the changes in Iraq affect the economic,governance str