第1季度中国甲级写字楼市场季度报告

1、e-commercial china research publication e-commercial china grade a office market report q1 2011 beijing shanghai guangzhou shenzhen tianjin preface according to the national bureau of statistics (nbs), china maintained its double-digit growth in 2010, ending the year with a growth rate of 10.3%. in

2、the first quarter of 2011, chinas economy maintained steady growth and real estate investment in this period increased 24.1% from the previous year. nevertheless, china is confronted with two issues; firstly excess liquidity in the economy is creating inflationary pressure, and secondly china must c

3、ontend with a challenging international economic environment. in light of this, the central government is expected to persist with the current prudent monetary policy and continue to raise interest rates. we expect residential real estate developers in particular will face huge pressure as a result

4、of this. the governments increasingly prudent macro-policy has severely restricted the residential market, which has meant transaction volumes in many cities has fallen. in light of reduced opportunities in the residential market, more and more investment is being shifted to the commercial market, w

5、hich opens up the possibility of it heating up in the future. the rapid development of the economy coupled with the relative abundance of liquidity in the market will serve to increase demand for leasing, purchasing and en bloc investment in the prime office market. in the grade a office market this

6、 quarter, average rental rates in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen all recorded increases. the rental growth rates in guangzhou and shenzhen were higher than in beijing and tianjin, highlighting the quicker growth trend in south china compared with north china. amongst chinas five major cit

7、ies, shenzhens average rental rates grew the fastest at 8.6% from the previous quarter. meanwhile, prices in the prime office market for these cities rose in the range of 4%-9%, while investment demand for prime office locations increased as a result of tightening policies in the residential market.

8、 new supply of grade a office projects in chinas five major cities was relatively small with only one grade a office in shenzhen, with a gfa of 31,050 sm coming on stream. currently, in terms of stock of grade a offices, shanghai and beijing still rank first and second respectively. meanwhile, curre

9、nt stock of grade a office in tianjin is small, however a considerable amount of new supply is expected to come on to the market in the next three to five years propelled by the development of the binhai new area and the city center. large leasing demand this quarter has meant vacancy rates in all f

10、ive cities fell, with beijing maintaining the highest vacancy rate at 17.7% and shenzhen the lowest at 5.8%. the en bloc investment market remained active in the first quarter. in shanghai, the singaporean ara fund purchased shanghai shengbang international building for rmb 1.16 billion from capital

11、 strategic. in summary, very little new grade a office space was added this quarter, yet demand remains strong. at the same time, current stock was further taken up and vacancy rates fell. leasing and investment demand for prime office space is expected to continue rising in the short- to middle-ter

12、m. 1 0 0 0 grade a office stock sm 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 beijingshanghaiguangzhou shenzhentianjin average grade a office rents rmb psm/month 300 250 200 150 100 50 beijingshanghaiguangzhou shenzhentianjin average prime office prices rmb psm 35,000 30,000

13、 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 beijingshanghaiguangzhou shenzhentianjin note: when describing price trends we use the term prime office which includes both grade a and b offices. 2 q106 q206 q306 q406 q107 q207 q307 q407 q108 q208 q308 q408 q109 q209 q309 q409 q110 q210 q310 q310 q410 q410 q111

14、q111q106 q206 q306 q406 q107 q207 q307 q407 q108 q208 q308 q408 q109 q209 q309 q409 q110 q210 q106 q206 q306 q406 q107 q207 q307 q407 q108 q208 q308 q408 q109 q209 q309 q409 q110 q210 q310 q410 q111 160 140 120 100 80 160 140 120 100 80 60 beijing in the first quarter of 2011, beijings office market

15、 continued to maintain a steadily increasing trend. average grade a office rents reached rmb 273.5 psm per month, a rise of 5.2% q-o-q and 14.2% y-o-y. amongst major office areas, average grade a office rents were highest in the financial street area, reaching rmb 312.9 psm per month, signifying an

16、increase of 4.2% q-o-q. meanwhile, average grade a office rents in the cbd reached rmb 287.2 psm per month, an increase of 5.3% q-o-q. driven by rental increases in the oriental plaza, average grade a office rents in the wangfujing area reached rmb 265 psm per month, an increase of 3.9% q-o-q. in ot

17、her business districts, namely the east second ring road (e2r) area, lufthansa area and zhongguancun area, grade a office rents reached rmb 240.6, rmb 238.2 and rmb 248.9 psm per month respectively, representing increases of 5.8%, 7.5% and 4.2% q-o-q. in the strata sales market, the average price of

18、 prime office continued to maintain its upward trend, largely fuelled by robust demand. at the end of the quarter, average prices stood at rmb 25,321 psm, rising 5.5% q-o-q and 14.1% y-o-y. in the first quarter, no new grade a projects came on stream while leasing demand remained brisk, causing the

19、vacancy rate to fall 3.5 percentage points to 17.7%. major leasing transactions in the first quarter included bp and citic-prudential each leasing approximately 26,000 sm of office space in the wfc. elsewhere polycom leased 25,000 sm of office space in pingan beijing grade a office rental index inde

20、x (q1 2006 = 100) 180 60 beijing prime office price index index (q1 2006 = 100) 180 grade a office supply,take-up greathorse business consultants rented 2,600 sm of office area in dbs tower (lujiazui); rbs rented 1,800 sm of office area in wheelock square (jingan), whilst kwg property rented 1,500 s

21、m of office area in united plaza (jingan). shanghai prime office price index index (q1 2006 = 100) 80 grade a office supply,take-up ictc in xiaobailou area and city mansion in youyi road area. impacted by tight macro control policy in the residential sector, investment in grade a offices increased r

22、apidly. tianjin grade a office rental index index (q1 2006 = 100) 180 60 tianjin prime office price index index (q1 2006 = 100) 180 grade a office supply,take-up & vacancy rate 10,000 sm the price gap between office and luxury residential projects in the city center has also attracted investor inter

23、est, while the huge future supply in binhai new area will increase competition in the leasing market. 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 50 40% 30% 20 10 0 -10 new supplytake-upvacancy rate 7 beijing shenzhen tianjin terminology this report takes into consideration some 800 office projects (grade a and b) in beijing,

24、shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen and tianjin for analyses of rental and price trends. the following provides an account of the terms commonly found in the report: prime office: collectively includes grade a and grade b office buildings. grade a office: located in cbd areas, equipped with the best facil

25、ities, services, market presence and are usually only available for leasing. grade b office: in terms of building specifications, grade b offices are of a lesser quality than grade a offices and are often stratified. rent: quoted on gross floor area basis excluding management fees. price: quoted on

26、gross floor area basis excluding taxes and other costs. major business areas city shanghai guangzhou business areas cbd, east second ring road (e2r), jianguomen, lufthansa, wangfujing, zhongguancun, financial street changning, huangpu, jingan, luwan, lujiazui, xuhui pearl river new city, tianhe spor

27、t center, huanshidong, zhongshan road, dongfeng road, pazhou futian cbd, caiwuwei, dongmen, guomao, chegongmiao, huaqiangbei, nanyou, shekou, high-tech park nanjing road, xiaobailou, youyi road, haihe riverfront, teda disclaimer the information contained in or throughout this report is based upon sources believed to be accurate and reliable. however, e-commercial china makes no guarantee, warranty or representation as to such accuracy. we shall not be responsible for the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other condition