生产计划与控制课程设计

1、 目录1 市场需求预测 22 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析 63 生产方式的经济分析与比较 6 4 制定综合生产计划 95 生产能力粗平衡 96 制定主生产计划 107 制定MRP,CRP 118 生产能力精平衡 179 零件工序卡编制 1810 产品装配工序卡编制 201 .市场需求预测（Market forecast）Historical Record (Aggregate Demand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Year4根据所给历史数据分析可知市场需求预测受时间季节因素影响，故先选用季节模型

2、预测* SEASONALIZED TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- FORECAST Sales - ABSOLUTE YEAR SEASON ACTUAL REGRESSION SEASONALIZED ERROR 1 1 9.000 17.533 8.766 0.234 1 2 18.000 17.982 17.982 0.018 1 3 24.000 18.430 24.573 0.573 1 4 21.000 18.879 22.025 1.025 2 1 10.000 19.327 9.664 0

3、.336 2 2 20.000 19.776 19.776 0.224 2 3 27.000 20.224 26.966 0.034 2 4 23.000 20.673 24.118 1.118 3 1 11.000 21.121 10.561 0.439 3 2 22.000 21.570 21.570 0.430 3 3 29.000 22.018 29.358 0.358 3 4 26.000 22.467 26.212 0.212- Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND

4、 4 1 11.458 10.910 12.006 4 2 23.364 22.268 24.460 4 3 31.750 30.289 33.212 4 4 28.305 27.026 29.584REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX WHERE: Y = Sales X = TIME PERIOD a = 17.0844 b = 0.4486FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)R = 0.942R-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 12 PERIODS

5、= 0.417MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167运用POM软件运算得预测结果如下：Month1234FORECASTYears412243229选用指

6、数平滑模型进行预测：Month1* EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- Sales Sales ABSOLUTE PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR 1 9.000 9.000 0.000 2 10.000 9.000 1.000 3 11.000 9.900 1.100- 4 10.890THE VALUE OF ALPHA USED IS = 0.9BEGINNING FORECAST IS = 9MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3

7、 PERIODS = 0.7MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.737MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.7STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 1.0512Month2 * EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- Sales Sales ABSOLUTE PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR 1 18.000 18.000 0.000 2 20.000

8、18.000 2.000 3 22.000 19.800 2.200- 4 21.780THE VALUE OF ALPHA USED IS = 0.9BEGINNING FORECAST IS = 18MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 1.4MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 2.947MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 1.4STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 2.1024Mont

9、h3* EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- Sales Sales ABSOLUTE PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR 1 24.000 24.000 0.000 2 27.000 24.000 3.000 3 29.000 26.700 2.300- 4 28.770THE VALUE OF ALPHA USED IS = 0.9BEGINNING FORECAST IS = 24MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS

10、= 1.767MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 4.763MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 1.767STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 2.673Month4* EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: Untitled- Sales Sales ABSOLUTE PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR 1 21.000 21.000 0.000 2 23.000 21.000

11、2.000 3 26.000 22.800 3.200- 4 25.680THE VALUE OF ALPHA USED IS = 0.9BEGINNING FORECAST IS = 21MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 1.733MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 4.747MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 1.733STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 2.6683所的预测结果：

12、Month1234FORECASTYears411222926通过对两种预测模型所得预测结果的标准差、均方差进行综合比较可知，运用季节模型所得预测结果的标准差、均方差都比指数平滑模型预测的小，故市场需求预测选用季节模型预测所得的数据。如下：Month1234FORECASTYears4122432292实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Process Analysis)零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程lead timeMLF-06支撑底座Q235-A铸造，粗车，半精车，精车，铣，钻孔、扩孔2MLF07-01线圈挡板绝缘板快速成型1MLF-07-02电磁铁线圈Q铜漆包线外购1MLF

13、-08密封板Q235-A铸造，粗铣，精铣，钻孔、扩孔2MLF-04减震胶圈普通橡胶板外购1MLF-10滑动轴承锡青铜铸造，粗车，精车，铣，粗镗，精镗，钻孔、扩孔2MLF-02支柱45粗车，精车，铣，螺纹2MLF-01顶罩45锻造，粗车，半精车，精车，铣，粗镗，精镗23生产方式的经济分析与比较（Alternative Plans Comparison）设备生产能力=12325/425=29(组装数/每月)装配线生产能力=4900/175=28(组装数/每月)故飞轮电池每月最大生产量28个平均每月的需求为Q=(12+24+32+29)/4=24.25 如果以每月需求24个来生产，则总数缺少1个，但

14、本次生产前有库存10个，而安全库存为8个，因此超出安全库存的2个产品可以保证本次生产产品的总数满足需求，并且以均衡式生产方式生产时每批次限定为6个，若每月生产24个则刚好生产四个批次。如果以每月需求25个来生产，因为以均衡式生产方式生产时每批次限定为6个，则每月实际需生产30个，所以每月的库存花费将会增大，且最终的库存为33个，这不符合生产的经济性。综上所述本次生产如果以均衡式生产方式生产，则每月生产飞轮电池24个。首先，计算需要工人的数量，计划雇佣工人的数量，解雇工人的数量以及年平均库存1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPlanned out

15、putsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matching demand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112Inventory adding or subtraction Beginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per monthAverage inventory per year121

16、0221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)14911.500000000000000000备注：（5）=（4）*600/25*8 但人数不能超过最大生产能力所需人数（即28*600/25*8=84），若达到最大生产能力仍不能满足市场需求时则考虑外协（11）=（9+10）/2 (12)=(11)/4当目前工人数不能满足下月生产需求时则考虑加班、外招或外协，但经分析加班生产一个飞轮电池需花费600*2.5=1500，而外招工人加工一个飞轮电池则需招人600/25*8=3 花费为3*（10+60）+600*2=1410 ，外协生产一个电池花费则为1800，因此加班或外协生产一个飞轮

17、电池都要比外招工人生产花费多，且可能会出现以当前人数加班仍难以满足生产需求的情况，加班多了还会影响工人士气，而外招的工人也不一定是当月就辞掉，故以市场匹配生产时当前人数不能满足需求则采用外招。计算在上述计划中产生的年度花费：1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Aggregate planFour Monthsnumber of workers hiredFour Monthsnumber of workers laid offAverage The Four MonthsinventoryFour Months hiring cost(2)*10Four Monthslayoff cost(3)*6

18、0Four Monthsl inventory carrying cost(4)*79*4Four Months incremental operating cost(5+6+7)Level capacity01816.87501080 5332.56412.5Matching demand485404803240 03720在matching demand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决（由于综合应用加班与外协时的平衡点难以求得故本次设计暂不考虑）Matching Demand 1 2 3 4 5MonthAggregat

19、e DemandSupplied by Overtime or Subcontracting(2)-28Cost of Subcontracting(3)*18003324720042911800Total-59000根据上表计算可知选用加班的花费比选用外协的花费要小，因此若选则市场匹配方式生产时超出生产能力的部分通过加班来满足。计算总的花费Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*25*8*2=121612.5Cost of matching demand=9000+3720+（36+72+84+84）*25*8*2=123120分析比较：采用市场匹配+外协方式生

20、产方案的费用为123120美元，采用均衡式生产的费用为121612.5美元，两者相差1507.5美元，相差不大。市场匹配的生方式使得工厂处于不稳定的状态，总是需要招聘或辞退工人，而且需要加班和外协，不仅使生产变得复杂化，而且公司的生产能力并没有充分利用，同时可能导致工人的工作热情不高，并且新工人经验不足，这些都会给产品的质量带来一定的负面影响。机器的使用状态也是不稳定的，常需要停用一些机器，这样对机器的工作效率也有一定的影响。而均衡式的生产方式恰能弥补这一点，均衡式生产方式比市场匹配生产方式更加稳定，且在招聘和解雇工人方面变动小，在均衡式生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需

21、求。综上因素我选择均衡式的生产方式4 制定综合生产计划（Aggregate Planning）12345Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPlanned outputsWorkers requiredLevel capacity with inventory11224722242472332247242924725 生产能力粗平衡（Rough-Cut Capacity Planning）Month final assembly hoursMonth1234Production24 242424Final Machine hours10200102001020

22、010200Machine Capacity(hours)12325123251232512325Final Assembly hours4200420042004200Assemble Capacity(hours)4900490049004900从上表可以看出:Final Machine hoursMachine Capacity(hours)Final Assembly hoursAssemble Capacity(hours)据此说明生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6 制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule)Level CapacityMonth 1

23、Month 2Month 3Month 41234123412341234Total demand12243229Beginning inventory10222214Required production6666666666666666Ending inventory2222149备注：根据生产能力可知每周最多装配生产7个7 制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning，Capacity Requirement Planning)7.1MRP制定Level 0MLF-00(1)Level 1A(3)MLF-08(1)MLF-01(1)B(3)MLF-10(1

24、)Level 2MLF-04(4)MLF-07-02(1)MLF-07-01(2)MLF-02(2)MLF-06(1)备注：A为支撑装配体 B为电磁铁装配体 括号中为所需数量 提前期详情见步骤2运用POM软件制定，各零件选用Lot For Lot的生产方式： * MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated SizeMLF00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL-Week Nu

25、mber: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Sche

26、duled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=PLANNED ORDER RELEASE SCHEDULE:-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Item Code: *RUSH* MLF00 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 A 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 B 12

27、 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 MLF10 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 MLF01 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 MLF08 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 MLF06 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 MLF04 120 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 MLF02 96 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 MLF71 60 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 MLF72 30 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1

28、6 -Item Code: *RUSH* MLF00 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 A 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 B 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 MLF10 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 MLF01 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 MLF08 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 MLF06 48 18 18 18 18 18 0 0 0 MLF04 120 72 72 72 72 72 72 0 0 MLF02 96 36 36 36 36 36 0 0 0 MLF71 60 36 36 36 36 36 36 0 0 MLF

29、72 30 18 18 18 18 18 18 0 0-=7.2CRP制定Month1234总需求12243229生产数量24242424初始库存10222214终止库存2222149所需工人数量72727272所需工时14400144001440014400机器工时10200102001020010200装配工时4200420042004200因为生产一个成品需要85个工序，故平均一个工序需要425/85=5小时。由此可得出各个零件所需工时如下表所示：零件名称支撑底座MLF-06线圈挡板MLF0701密封板MLF-08滑动轴承MLF-10支柱MLF-02顶罩MLF-01工序工时数255203

30、52030由MRP可知各零件每周的需求量，如下表所示： 零件名称生产量第一个月第二个月第三个月 第四个月1周2周3周4周5周6周7周8周9周10周11周12周13周14周15周16周MLF-1066666666666666MLF-0166666666666666MLF-0866666666666666MLF-0618181818181818181818181818MLF-047272727272727272727272727272MLF-0236363636363636363636363636MLF-07-013636363636363636363636363636MLF-07-0218181

31、81818181818181818181818根据以上表格，计算每个月每周所需要的工时，外协不计算零件生产工时零件代号工时 第一个月第二个月MLF-06450450450450450450450450MLF-07-01180180180180180180180180MLF-08120120120120120120120120MLF-10210210210210210210210210MLF-02720720720720720720720720MLF-01180180180180180180180180生产所需时间18601860186018601860186018601860生产可提供时间25

32、502550255025502550255025502550剩余工时690690690690690690690690零件代号工时 第三个月第四个月MLF-06450450450450450MLF-07-01180180180180180180MLF-08120120120120120120MLF-10210210210210210210MLF-02720720720720720MLF-01180180180180180180生产所需时间18601860186018601860690生产可提供时间25502550255025502550255025502550剩余工时69069069069069

33、01860每个零件的装配时间为175个工时，共有四种部件组装装配，一个电池总装配对每个装配件的总装配时间根据装配批量的大小进行分配得如下表所示：装配件 MLF-00 A B电机飞轮装配体单位装配时间（小时） 87.5101557.5零件代号第一个月第二个月MLF-0046666666A1818181818181818B1818181818181818电机46666666飞轮装配体46666666所需装配能力7601050105010501050105010501050总装配能力10501050105010501050105010501050剩余装配能力2900000000第三个月第四个月MLF-0066666666A18181818181818B1818181