亚太地区港口及集装箱运输

1、PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGIONMPPMPort Expert Group MeetingAPEC TPT-WG/204-5 March 2002, Manila2345Water Transport MPPM to provide a regional planning contextShipping policy - to promote competitive servicesCruise shipping to explore new opportunitiesPort commercializ

2、ation/privatization to enhance efficiencyIWT integration to improve sustainabilityMultimodal transport and logistics to promote integration6Maritime Policy Planning ModelDeveloped by the ESCAP secretariatA set of computer modules covering trade, shipping and ports to provide projection of:Trade flow

3、s and future shipping requirementsPort cargo throughputs and port infrastructure requirementsIntegrated Computer Modules7MPPM StudiesProspects for container shipping and port developmentASEAN (1992)South Asia (1993)East Asia (1994)Intra-regional Container Shipping Study (1997)Regional shipping and p

4、ort development strategies under a changing maritime environment (2001)8Three Modules of MPPMTrade ModuleLiner Shipping Network ModulePort Strategic Planning ModuleForecast cargo flowsCountry to country and port to port matrixesAssign the port-to-port cargo flows to shipping networkShipping requirem

5、ents and port throughputsAssess port capacity/investment requirements9MPPM Model StructureTrade ModuleLinerShippingNetworkModulePortStrategicPlanningModuleCIY Port DataO-D DataPort shareRoutesService detailsVessel descriptionPort classTEU/ship-hourFleetrequiredVessel callsat portsPortthroughputsPort

6、 capacityrequiredPort-to-portcargo flowsInputOutput10Trade ProjectionAnalysis of historical dataTime-series of import/export full container totals for countriesForecast export/import totalsSimple regression function estimation Explanatory variables: GDPProduce port-to-port cargo flows11Economic Grow

7、th AssumptionLINKAverage 1999-2004(10.0)(5.0)-5.010.015.01993199519971999200120032005200720092011Annual Growth Rate (%)WorldJapanChinaIndiaMalaysia12World Container Volumes (Full, O-D)12359.00204060801001201401980198519901995200020052010Million TEUHistorical EstimatesModel Estimates5912313Asian Cont

8、ainer TradeEuropeAsiaN. AmericaAsia7.7%5.7%7.6%5.1% 4.210.312.530.14.68.36.813.1World Total 59 m TEU (1999) 123 m TEU (2011)7.6%5.312.96.3%14JAPANBusan /GwangyangKaohsiungHong KongPHILIPPINESSingaporeINDONESIAVIETNAMMALAYSIATHAILANDDalianQinhuangdaoTianjinXingangYantai QingdaoLianyungangNanjingShang

9、haiNingboFuzhouXiamenShantouYantianShekouChiwanHuangpuZhuhaiMainline Connection Feeder ConnectionTo North America and/or EuropeAsian Liner Shipping Network15400+ actual service routes to/from/within Asia (1999)Service details (sequence of calling ports, service frequency)Vessel description (how many

10、 ships of how big sizes)What will the future shipping network look like?Liner Shipping Network162500300034004000620072008000120000200040006000800010000120001400019761981198619911996200020062011How big will ships be?17Scenarios on shipping networks Base network 2011Similar to existing shipping networ

11、kBigger ships up to 12000 TEU but limited role: 8000 TEU or less in major E-W routesBig ships network 201112000 TEU ships playing dominant role calling very limited number of super hub ports in E-W routes18Required Number of Ships0200400600800100019992006Base CaseBigShipNo. of Ships750750-17501750-3

12、5003500-90009000-13000200132493,2571,9072,3943,06219Asia-Europe (2011)2001Ship size distribution0204060801001201401601803,0004,0005,0006,0008,00010,00012,000Ship Size (TEU)Number of Ships2011 Base Case2011 Big Ships20Transpacific (2011)2001Ship size distribution0204060801001201401601803,0004,0005,00

13、06,0008,00010,00012,000Ship Size (TEU)Number of Ships2011 Base Case2011 Big Ships21Trans-shipment (ESCAP)0102030405060701999Base 2011Big Ships 2011Million TEUKobe/OsakaTokyo/YokohamaGwangyangBusanKaohsiungShanghaiHong KongTanjung PelepasPort KlangSingaporeColombo26646722Container Port Throughput ESC

14、AP RegionN Asia18.7%S Asia6.6%Other Asia4.4%E Asia40.9%SE Asia29.4%216 million TEUBase Case2011SE Asia29.4%S Asia5.2%Other Asia5.3%E Asia40.0%N Asia20.0%95 million TEU199923Top 5 Container Ports in ESCAP (2011)Busan6.312.5Port19992011Hong Kong16.225.3Shanghai4.019.0Kaohsiung7.012.8(Million TEU)Singa

15、pore15.930.924Container Berth RequirementNorth Asia20%East Asia38%S Asia9%Other Asia4%South East Asia29%881621244119Total number of additional berths required: 43425Investment RequirementsNumber of additional requirementInvestment requirement(US$ Billion)Containerships1,35060Container Berths43427ESC

16、AP Region26Difficult for developing countries to maintain a presence in shipping marketDeregulation and liberalizationFinancing increased capital commitmentPrioritization of projectsPrivate sector participationImproving port productivityIntermodal integrationIssues and Policy Implications27Strengths

17、 of MPPMComprehensive view of the systemRegional perspectivesCoherent and internally consistent forecastsEvery container assigned to a particular shipping service to be carried from one port to other28Cargo Allocation in MPPM Los AngelesUSAHong KongPort APort KlangPTPSingapore1TEU1TEULaem Chabang Thailand29Limitations of MPPM Simple trade projection Limitations on port numbers & transshipment nodes Lack of intermodal representation30Plan to Upgrade/Expand the Model 2002-2003 Utilize contemporary modeling technologies Cover the whole APEC region Represent intermodal connecti