风电并网对系统运行的影响和对策

1、Reliable PowerReliable MarketsReliable PeopleReliable PowerReliable MarketsReliable People风电并网对系统运行的影响和对策风电并网对系统运行的影响和对策Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems and Market Operations Impact & Solution胡明 Ming Hu运行规划 (Operation Planning)系统运行及可靠性 (O & R)阿尔伯塔省电力运行机构(AESO)2阿尔伯塔省电力工业概况阿尔伯塔省电力工业概况Alber

2、tas Electric Industry 最大负荷最大负荷 (Peak load)：9,775 MW 年负荷系数年负荷系数 (annual load factor)：80% 装机容量装机容量 (Installed Capacity)：12,368 MW 280台发电机组台发电机组 (generating units) 200电力交易商电力交易商 (Wholesale market participants) 21,000 km 输电线输电线 (Transmission line) 2对外联络线对外联络线 (Interties)：与：与BC省省780MW；与与 Sask.省省 150 MWBC

3、Alta.Sask.煤电煤电 Coal 5,893 MW燃气电厂燃气电厂 Gas 4,895MW其它其它 Other214 MW风电风电 Wind523 MW水电水电 869MW主要风电项目主要风电项目 开开发地区发地区 (Primary region) 11,000 MW 风电风电项目意向项目意向 (Wind power Interest)300 KM3风电大规模并网对系统运行带来的挑战风电大规模并网对系统运行带来的挑战The System Operation Challenge of Large-Scale Wind Power Integration 如何应对风电出力变化和不确定性如何应

4、对风电出力变化和不确定性How to handle the variability and uncertainty in System Operation理解风电出力的变化规律理解风电出力的变化规律 (风电出力变化研究风电出力变化研究)Understand the wind power variability (Wind power variability study)理解风电出力的不确定性理解风电出力的不确定性 (风电出力预测试点项目风电出力预测试点项目)Understand wind power uncertainty (Wind power forecast pilot project)

5、理解和评估对系统运行的影响理解和评估对系统运行的影响 (系统影响分析系统影响分析, 1)Understand and assess the potential impact on system operation (System Impact study, phase-1)评估潜在的系统应对措施及手段评估潜在的系统应对措施及手段 (系统影响分析系统影响分析, 2)Assess potential mitigation solutions (System Impact study, phase-2)应对措施的实施应对措施的实施 (发展风电的市场及运行框架发展风电的市场及运行框架)Solution

6、s implementation (Market & Operation Framework)4理解风电出力的不稳定性理解风电出力的不稳定性Understand the wind power variability AESO 和风电行业合作，完成了和风电行业合作，完成了 “阿尔伯塔风电出力变化研究阿尔伯塔风电出力变化研究”AESO work with wind industry, contracted GENIVAR (Phoenix Engineering) to conduct “Alberta wind power variability study” 研究结果提供了研究结果提供了200

7、4年风电出力全年每分钟的仿真结果年风电出力全年每分钟的仿真结果 / Provided simulated minute-to-minute wind power data for the whole year (2004) 基于基于2004年气候测量数据，未来风电发站方案及风电场模型年气候测量数据，未来风电发站方案及风电场模型 / Based on measured meteorology data across southern Alberta of potential future wind farms and wind power production simulation model

8、4个未来风电发站方案个未来风电发站方案 / For 4 scenarios (250MW, 900MW, 1500MW and 2000MW)250MW为为2004年已有规模，用于模型验证年已有规模，用于模型验证 / The 250MW was the existing wind power scenario, for the purpose of wind power production simulation model validation 为下一步的为下一步的 “风电的系统影响风电的系统影响”提供必要的基础和数据提供必要的基础和数据 / The data was required an

9、d used later for AESO “Wind power system Impact studies” 研究的主要结论研究的主要结论: 风电出力的不稳定随着发展规模的增加而增大风电出力的不稳定随着发展规模的增加而增大, 但由于分布但由于分布的分散互补性，并非按比例增大。的分散互补性，并非按比例增大。 / A key conclusion of this study: The wind power variability does increase with the wind power development level, but not proportionally due to

10、diversification5理解风电出力的不稳定性理解风电出力的不稳定性(2) 分散互补性分散互补性 Understand the Variability of Wind Power (2) Diversification 不同分布的风电场出力不稳定性的叠加不同分布的风电场出力不稳定性的叠加 分散互补的影响分散互补的影响The combined variability of different wind farms Diversification impact 不同分布的风电场出力不稳定性的叠加不是简单的算术叠加，而是向量叠加，不同分布的风电场出力不稳定性的叠加不是简单的算术叠加，而是向量

11、叠加，向量的方向取决于不同风电场的相关情况。向量的方向取决于不同风电场的相关情况。The combined variability (random nature) is the vector-sum of each individual variability other than simple-sum 完全正相关完全正相关 相互独立相互独立 完全反相关完全反相关 positive correlate independent negative correlate 空间分散空间分散 / 时间互补时间互补 (Diversification: Space / Time) 对短时出力变化互补明显对短时

12、出力变化互补明显 morefor short-term variability 对长期出力变化互补性减低对长期出力变化互补性减低 (持续增减持续增减)lessand morefor long-term variability (Ramping issue) 取决于风场的位置分布和风向取决于风场的位置分布和风向 / Also related with location distribution of wind farms and wind directions 6理解风电出力的不确定性理解风电出力的不确定性 风电出力预测试点项目风电出力预测试点项目Understand the Uncertain

13、ty of Wind Power (1) - Forecasting Pilot Project 试点三种不同的预测方法试点三种不同的预测方法 ，为期，为期1年年 / Trial three very different forecasting methods over a one year period:AWS Truewind (US)WEPROG (Denmark)Energy and Meteo (Germany) 分别针对分别针对4个不同地理气候条件的地区个不同地理气候条件的地区 4 different geographic terrains / wind regimes in Al

14、berta 每小时提供未来每小时提供未来1-48小时的平均风速，矗立及小时的平均风速，矗立及变化变化 / T-1 to T-48 hours forecasted refreshed hourly (w/s, MWs, ramp rate) 7个现有风场，个现有风场，5个未来风场个未来风场 / 7 existing and 5 future facilities to represent geographic diversity and future expansion 统一的风场气象数据收集统一的风场气象数据收集 / On-site Met Data Collection by GENIVA

15、R 独立的结果分析独立的结果分析 / Independent analytical analysis from ORTECH Power Funded by Alberta Electric System OperatorAlberta Energy Research InstituteAlberta Department Of Energy7理解风电出力的不确定性理解风电出力的不确定性 (2) 预测误差实例预测误差实例Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power (2) - forecast error example 时间误差时间误差Phase Erro

16、r误报误报False Alarm变化率误差变化率误差Ramp Rate漏报漏报Miss8理解风电的不确定性理解风电的不确定性 (3) Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power - (3) 不确定性不等同于变化不确定性不等同于变化 / Uncertainty is different than Variability 不确定性只是无法预测的变化预测误差不确定性只是无法预测的变化预测误差 Uncertainty is only the unpredictable variability forecast error 风电出力预测的相对误差高于负荷预测风电出力

17、预测的相对误差高于负荷预测 / The relative degree of uncertainty of wind power is bigger than load based on todays forecast capability1日前预测日前预测: 负荷一般负荷一般1-3%，风电，风电 10% (100%?) Day-ahead forecast: 1-3% error for load vs. 10% for wind power 准确预测风电出力变化有难度准确预测风电出力变化有难度 / The prediction of wind power ramping is challe

18、nging 常用的预测误差指标，例如常用的预测误差指标，例如: 平均平均|误差误差|、方差等不适用、方差等不适用 / The standard accuracy metrics used to describe forecast performance may not be applicable or meaningful to system operations, such as MAPE, RMSE because they can suppress ramping signals需要制定新的预测误差指标，能够全面反映幅值、相位、误报、漏报及变化趋势误差需要制定新的预测误差指标，能够全面反

19、映幅值、相位、误报、漏报及变化趋势误差 / Need some accuracy metrics that can describe not only magnitude error, but also phase error, false-alarm rate, capture-rate, ramping rate errorAESO制定了基于出力变化事件的幅值制定了基于出力变化事件的幅值/相位误差图相位误差图AESO developed an changing-event-based magnitude/phase accuracy chart to assess and understa

20、nd wind power forecast capability9理解风电出力变化及不确定对系统运行的影响理解风电出力变化及不确定对系统运行的影响Understand and Assess the System Impact of Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty (1) 系统的关键是要维持实时的系统供需平衡系统的关键是要维持实时的系统供需平衡 / System operation involves maintaining a constant balance between supply and demand 包括包括4个重要环节个重要环节 /

21、Four key aspects to achieving system balance 预测维持系统供需平衡的平衡能力预测维持系统供需平衡的平衡能力 / Ability to forecast the balancing requirement 保证充足的系统资源保证充足的系统资源 / Adequate system resources for this requirement 容量，备用及调节控制能力容量，备用及调节控制能力 / Supply sources (generation) and control sources (ancillary services) 相应的运行规程相应的运行

22、规程 / Operating policies and procedures 实时的运行决策实时的运行决策 / Real-time operating decisions 风电出力变化及不确定对以上风电出力变化及不确定对以上4个环节均有影响个环节均有影响 / The variability and uncertainty of wind power may impact all of the above aspects 2种分析方法：理论分析，仿真分析种分析方法：理论分析，仿真分析Two ways to analyze impact: statistical and simulation10运

23、行预测运行预测 Operation Forecasting系统影响分析方法系统影响分析方法 / / System Impact Analysis Framework其它变化及不确定其它变化及不确定Othervariability & uncertainties系统整体系统整体变化变化及不确定及不确定System Overallvariability & uncertainties负荷变化及不确定负荷变化及不确定Loadvariability &uncertainties风电变化及不确定风电变化及不确定Wind Power variability & uncertainties区域控制误差区域控

24、制误差ACE性能指标性能指标1CPS1性能指标性能指标2CPS2输电能力越限输电能力越限OTCViolation基于理论的统计分析基于理论的统计分析Statistical analysis实时调度模拟实时调度模拟/ Real-timeDispatch simulation衡量各种变化的指标衡量各种变化的指标Variability indices发电备用调度发电备用调度模拟结果模拟结果Simulation of Energy market, Regulating reserve & Tie flow模拟的模拟的性能指标性能指标Simulated results of:ACE, CPS2OTC v

25、iolations非计划潮流非计划潮流UnscheduledInterchange运行性能运行性能评估评估 Performance Assessment潮流交换潮流交换发电调度发电调度备用调度备用调度Interchange schedulingEnergy market dispatch Ancillary services各种运行规程各种运行规程Operating policies & procedures11统计分析实例：统计分析实例：1小时的变化分析小时的变化分析Statistic analysis example: 1 hour variability负荷与风电出力相互独负荷与风电出力

26、相互独立立The variability of load and wind power are independent随着风电的增加，风电随着风电的增加，风电出力对系统整体的变化出力对系统整体的变化及不确定的影响从可忽及不确定的影响从可忽略到共同主导略到共同主导As wind power increase, the wind power variability can increase the overall system variability to a level that can not be ignored and more dominate12统计分析实例：统计分析实例：4小时的系统

27、不确定性影响小时的系统不确定性影响Statistic analysis example: 4 hour uncertainty风电不确定性对系风电不确定性对系统整体不确定性的统整体不确定性的影响随电规模增大影响随电规模增大而增大而增大 / The wind power uncertainty can have ignorable or significant impact on overall system uncertainty depend on the penetration level and timeframes风电增加对系统不风电增加对系统不确定性的影响更加确定性的影响更加显著显著

28、Wind power uncertainty could increase faster than load as level increase13统计分析实例：风电出力持续变化分析统计分析实例：风电出力持续变化分析Statistic analysis example: Changing event-based analysis250MW900MW1500MW2000MW随着风电规模的增大随着风电规模的增大There will be more, longer and faster persistent system changing as wind penetration increase对调

29、节跟踪能力有限对调节跟踪能力有限的系统带来压力的系统带来压力 It put pressure on system with limited ramping capability 幅度幅度1400-1600MW 历历时时5-6小时小时系统持续变化系统持续变化发生发生4次次 / there is 4 changing events with duration of 5-6 hours and ramp-down magnitude of 1400-1600MW 14Step 2: 每分钟仿真每分钟仿真1-minute simulation 仿真分析，方法及假设条件仿真分析，方法及假设条件Simul

30、ation-based analysis, Methodology and AssumptionStep 3: 计算对运行性能的影响计算对运行性能的影响 / Calculate impact to system performance criteriaCPS2OTC violationStep 1: 发电调度决策仿真发电调度决策仿真Determine Energy Market Dispatch(Every 20 minutes) 未来未来20分钟调度决策分钟调度决策Energy Market Dispatch for next 20 minutes当前调度误差当前调度误差Current Su

31、pply-Demand Imbalance (ACE)预期负荷变化预期负荷变化Expected Load change 潮流交换计划潮流交换计划Interchange Schedule change风电出力预测风电出力预测Expected wind generation (persistent forecast )调度有效性准则调度有效性准则出力调度幅度应出力调度幅度应 20MWDispatch validationMW threshold, if imbalance within +/- 20MW, no instruction is made and any imbalance is ha

32、ndled by RR or ACE计算调度出力变化，考虑系统计算调度出力变化，考虑系统应变速度和相应时间应变速度和相应时间Calculate the Energy market movement with ramping capability limitation and response delay 计算调度出力与实际需求间的误差计算调度出力与实际需求间的误差 / Calculate the mismatch between supply and demand计算平衡计算平衡出力出力误差所需的调节备用误差所需的调节备用 / Calculate required regulating res

33、erve movement to balance the mismatch 10% of MW range/min无法平衡的误差即为无法平衡的误差即为“区域控制误区域控制误差差” Remaining mismatch is simulated ACE递归迭代算法递归迭代算法Recursive Iteration Algorithm15基于仿真的分析，仿真模型分析界面基于仿真的分析，仿真模型分析界面Simulation-based analysis, Simulation model GUI Load风电出力风电出力Wind power仿真调度出力仿真调度出力Simulated EMD历史调度出

34、力历史调度出力Historical EMD潮流输出限制潮流输出限制Export Limit潮流输入限制潮流输入限制Import Limit潮流计划潮流计划InterchangeSchedule仿真潮流交换仿真潮流交换Simulated Interchange历史区控误差历史区控误差HIST. ACE仿真区控误差仿真区控误差SIM. ACE调节备用容量调节备用容量RR range仿真备用调度仿真备用调度SIM. RR dispatch仿真区控误差SIM. ACE仿真性能指标越限仿真性能指标越限SIM. CPS2 Violation余度余度Ld-Ld20-min moving minimum of

35、f-schedule输电可靠性备用输电可靠性备用TRMSystem data quality TagWind power data quality Tag16系统影响分析系统影响分析 1 结论结论System Impact Study phase-1 conclusions 4个风电开发方案个风电开发方案(包括包括1个当前方案，验正模型个当前方案，验正模型)，用以确定风电增加对系统，用以确定风电增加对系统的增量影响。所有个风电发展方案都有性能指标越陷的问题的增量影响。所有个风电发展方案都有性能指标越陷的问题4 wind development scenarios (existing + 3 f

36、uture), to identify the incremental impact effect. All 3 growth scenarios studied resulted in one or more performance violations. 分析结果显示风电增加和系统运行控制性能指标下降和传输能力越限的因果分析结果显示风电增加和系统运行控制性能指标下降和传输能力越限的因果关系关系 / There is an observable relationship between increased wind power development, Decreased CPS2 perf

37、ormance and Increased OTC violations. 大规模风电并网运行将需要制定、实施应对措施以保证系统的安全可靠运行大规模风电并网运行将需要制定、实施应对措施以保证系统的安全可靠运行It is highly likely that mitigating measures will need to be developed and implemented in order to integrate large scale wind power and maintain the reliable and safe system operation17调查评估各种针对出力变

38、化和不确定性的应对措施调查评估各种针对出力变化和不确定性的应对措施 系统影响分析系统影响分析Investigate and Assess Different Mitigation solutions of Power Variability and Uncertainty (10) System Impact Study phase-2 有效的应对措施包括： / Effective mitigating measures for wind power integration are: 风电出力预测 / wind power forecasting 增加发电调度的可控变化能力 / More en

39、ergy market ramping capability 增加的调节备用或追踪备用容量 / additional regulating or following service 风电出力管理 / wind power management 无效的应对措施 / The ineffective mitigating measures are: 负荷的自然增长 / Increases in AIES load 增加调节备用的调节速度 / Increasing the regulating reserves ramp rate18风电出力变化及不确定应对措施的实施风电出力变化及不确定应对措施的实施

40、 AESO发展风电市场发展风电市场&运行框架运行框架Solutions of Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty- AESO Market and Operation Framework (MOF) for Wind Power Integration (1) 原则：在保证系统安全可靠运行和市场公平和效率的同时尽量增加风电的并网原则：在保证系统安全可靠运行和市场公平和效率的同时尽量增加风电的并网Tointegrate as much wind power into the Alberta system as is feasible without co

41、mpromisingsystem reliability or the fair, efficient and openly competitive operation of the market. 目的是建立一个稳固的基础作为通过实践不断改进完善的起点目的是建立一个稳固的基础作为通过实践不断改进完善的起点The intent is to develop a solid starting point from which to continuously improve 建立适当的机制使得市场力量能够优化解决方案建立适当的机制使得市场力量能够优化解决方案 / To set up proper m

42、echanism to allow the market force lead to solutions optimization 在获得合理风电出力预测的前提下，运行人员可以制定计划采用以下措施吸收预在获得合理风电出力预测的前提下，运行人员可以制定计划采用以下措施吸收预测的分风电发电测的分风电发电 / The premise If the System Operator receives a reasonable forecast of wind power generation, then they can establish an operating plan to accommodat

43、e the forecast wind energy by using the following resources / tools:预测预测 / Forecasting发电调度排序发电调度排序 / The Energy Market Merit Order调节备用调节备用 / Regulating Reserves跟踪备用跟踪备用 / Wind Following Services风电出力管理风电出力管理 / Wind Power Management 19市场运行框架市场运行框架 具体工作具体工作AESO MOF for Wind Power Integration Work strea

44、ms 市场&运行规则 / Market & Operating Rules 风电出力管理 / Wind Power Management 风电出力预测 / Wind Power Forecasting 额外的辅助服务的预测和获取 / Additional Accessory Services Forecast / Procurement 系统运行辅助软件工具系统运行辅助软件工具 / System Operator Tools 接入系统 / Interconnection 接入排序管理 / Queue Management Practices 接入系统标准 (出力管理、预测等) / Standa

45、rds for Interconnection (Power Management & Forecasting Requirement) 电源发展方案预测方法 / Generator Scenario Development Methodology 输电网规划 / Transmission Planning 鼓励分散多样性 / Diversity20具体工作之一运行辅助软件工具具体工作之一运行辅助软件工具MOF Work Stream (1) Operator tools 分析工具 / Engineering tool 用以在设计、测试各种可能实施的运行规程 / To design and t

46、est protocols, procedures before implementation into OPPs 实时运行的辅助工具 / Real-time system operation tool 用以帮助有效管理 / To effectively manage: 各种规程的实时操作 / The procedures in the real-time 保证复杂运行决策的有效、一致和透明度 / complicated real-time system operation with Efficiency, Consistency and Transparency 提供知识、信息、经验共享和不

47、断完善的共享平台Common basis for knowledge sharing, experience and continuous improvement21运行辅助软件工具的功能框架运行辅助软件工具的功能框架Work stream Tools: Architecture各种分析评估各种分析评估Operation assessmentTo balance between Supply and DemandTo assess the situation & risk of: System Ramping Capability Supply Shortfall issue Supply Surplus (Zero-offer) issue Minimum technical output issue OTC violation issueActual Generator output (PI) Energy & RRDispatch logs (EMS)系统状态系统状态 / System StatusL