巨涛海洋石油服务03303.HK海底装备市场将有庞大的机遇0201

1、买入(首次)-20%公司报告巨涛海洋石油服务 (03303.hk)海底装备市场将有庞大的机遇目标价：hk$ 1.50巨涛海洋石油服务 (“巨涛”或“公司”)提供石油、水及天然气处理装备，该等装备为油/气田开发及生产的必需品。集团已由过往单 现价：hk$1.05纯的代工厂演变为一间可以向高端客户提供一站式设计、采购及製 招商证券(香港)研究部造服务(epc)的企业。 郁明德(852) 31896123新珠海厂房提升产能并可提供海底装备产品巨涛新珠海厂房第二期建设工程的完工，不单把巨涛的生产能力提升了 200%，同时让 2013 年 1 月 31 日巨涛能够向客户提供海底装备产品。巨涛为中国唯一一

2、间油气海底装备产品供应商。基础数据恒生指数23,822.06发展油田的投放增加导致蓬莱巨涛的贡献回升。巨涛拥有蓬莱巨涛，一间油台製造及设计服务供应商，30%的股权，为其最大的股东。其主要客户为中海油及中海油服。故此，随著中海油增加投放于油气田开发的资本开支增加，蓬莱巨涛的贡献将会上升。向雪佛龙的 wheatstone 项目供应海底装备产品。巨涛通过其战略合作夥伴 fmc technologies，正为雪佛龙于西澳洲、总额达 290 亿美元的 wheatstone 液化天然气项目建造水下管汇。我们预计在 2013 年至2014 年末，巨涛将向 fmc technologies 供应最少三套水下管

3、汇。h 股指数总股数（百万股）港股股数（百万股）港股市值(港元百万)每股净资产（港元）主要股东lishan wang自由流通量行业股价表现12,172.24628.80628.80647.66$1.36持股()63.12%33.38%石油/天然气%1m6m12m估值 我们首次给予巨涛买入评级，基于2013年的15.0倍市盈率，目标价为港币1.50元。绝对表现相对恒指表现(15.6)(20.3)77.657.7119.1102.8%230%03303.hkhsi index盈利预测及估值180%sino land (23.hk) price人民币百万元营业额同比增长(%)20104288%201

4、149315%2012e5226%2013e64824%2014e80023%130%80%30%净利润709295564jan 12apr 12jul 12oct 12jan 13同比增长(%)每股盈利（元）每股股息（元）市盈率（x）市净率（x）roe（%）-6%0.140.036.30.610%-87%0.020.0050.50.51%210%0.040.0020.70.63%92%0.080.0010.80.66%15%0.090.009.40.66%资料来源：彭博相关报告资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测please see important notice on the last pag

5、e.1 of 25(initial)buy18180%130%-20%company reportjutal offshore oil services (03303.hk)subsea equipment market provides vast potentialjutal offshore oil services (“jutal” or “company”) provides oil, water,and natural gas processing equipment that are vital to oil/gas fielddevelopment and production.

6、 the company has evolved from a pureoem provider to one that can provide one-stop engineering,procurement, and construction services (epc) for its high-endequipment clientele.tp：hk$ 1.50current price hk$1.05china merchants securities (hk)michael yuk(852) new zhuhai plant increases production capacit

7、y to include subseaequipment completion of phase ii construction at jutals new zhuhaiplant not only increases production capacity by 200% but also allows jutal to31 jan 2013key dataadd subsea production equipment to its product offering. jutal is the onlymanufacturer of oil & gas subsea producti

8、on equipment in china.contribution from penglai jutal rebounding on oil field developmentspending jutal has a 30% equity interest and is the largest share holder ofpenglai jutal, an oil platform jacket manufacturer and engineering serviceprovider. clients are primarily cnooc and cooec. hence, contri

9、butionfrom penglai jutal will increase as cnooc increases spending on oil & gasfield development capex.providing subsea equipment for chevrons wheatstone project jutal,through its strategic alliance with fmc technologies, is building subseahsi indexhscei indexs/o (mn)mkt cap (hk$) (mn)bvps (hk$)

10、major share holderlishan wangfree floatindustryshare performance23,822.0612,172.24628.80647.66$1.36holding ()63.12%33.38%oil & gasmanifolds for chevrons us$29bn wheatstone lng project in westernaustralia. we estimate that jutal will provide at least 3 subsea manifolds forfmc technologies startin

11、g from 2013 to end of 2014.%absolute returnrelative return1m(15.6)(20.3)6m77.657.712m119.102.valuationwe initiate coverage with a buy recommendation for jutal%230%03303.hkhsi indexoffshore oil services with fairvalue for the at 15.0x forward p/e multiple toour fy13 earnings estimate of rmb0.079/shar

12、e putting fair value for thesino land (23.hk) pricecompany at hk$1.50/share, a 40% upside versus yesterdays closing price.buy.80%30%jan 12apr 12jul 12oct 12jan 13financialssource：bloombergrmbmfy10fy11fy12efy13efy14erevenuegrowth(%)net profitgrowth(%)eps(yuan)dps(yuan)p/e(x)p/b(x)roe(%)4288%70-6%0.14

13、0.036.30.610%49315%9-87%0.020.0050.50.51%5226%29210%0.040.0020.70.63%64824%5592%0.080.0010.80.66%80023%6415%0.090.009.40.66%related researchsource: company data, cms(hk) estimatesplease see important notice on the last page.2 of 25pg5pg6pg8pg8pg22company reportexecutive summaryinvestment thesisleade

14、r in oil & gas field processing equipmentzhuhai production facility paves way for production expansionadditional funding will most likely be needed to complete zhuhai plantproviding subsea equipment for chevrons wheatstone projectpenglai jutala potential acquisition?valuationrisk analysiscompany

15、 overviewswotwhat are subsea production systems?fmc technologies leader in subsea systemschevrons wheatstone projectfinancial summaryplease see important notice on the last page.pg4pg10pg11pg13pg16pg17pg20pg21pg23pg243 of 251.2.3.company reportexecutive summarydue to sizeable discoveries being made

16、globally in multiple deepwater basins,international oil companies (iocs) have been rapidly expanding theirdeepwater oil and gas production capital expenditure. deepwater capex isexpected to average us$55,000mn per year between 2013 to 2015.jutals oil & gas processing equipment are sought out for

17、 both onshore andoffshore oil & gas development projects. specifically, it manufactures 1) oilseparation equipment, 2) water treatment equipment, and 3) natural gasequipment. these equipments efficiently separate the oil/gas from within thewatery mixtures extracted directly from wells or pipelin

18、es before they aretransported to their next processing station. entry barriers for new entrants arehigh given the stringent qualifications needed.jutal is the only chinese manufacturer of subsea production equipment. itscooperation with fmc technologies for the production of subsea manifolds forchev

19、ron australias wheatstone project is testimony of jutals manufacturingproficiency and acceptance as one of the most premier oil & gas equipmentproviders within the oil & gas industry. we expect jutal will provide at least 3subsea manifolds for fmc technologies by end of 2014.jutal has a 30%

20、equity interest and is the largest share holder of penglai jutal,an oil platform jacket manufacturer and engineering service provider. othershareholders include cnooc, sembcorp utilities, and shenzhen chiwanpetroleum supply base co. projects are mainly for cnooc and cooec.contribution to jutals p&am

21、p;l will increase along with cnoocs oil & gas fielddevelopment capex.valuationwe calculate fairvalue for jutals stock using a 15.0x forward p/e multiple toour fy13 earnings estimate of rmb0.079/share putting fair value for thecompany at hk$1.50/share, a 40% upside versus yesterdays closing price

22、.hence, we initiate coverage on jutal offshore oil services ltd. with a buyrecommendation.key catalyst and riskscatalyst1. equity investment by fmc technologyor other internationally renowned oil &gas equipment manufacturers.2. acquiring majority stake-hold ofpenglai jutal and consolidation ofpl

23、atform production business.3. additional equipment supply contractsfor high-profile deepwater oil/gas fieldprojects.please see important notice on the last page.risksearnings dilution from equityfinancing for capex and/or m&a.earnings dilution from share optionconversion.loss of any major client

24、s.4 of 25company reportinvestment thesisleader in oil & gas field processing equipmentjutal is an integrated service and equipment provider that focuses on providingoil, water, and natural gas processing equipment that are vital to oil/gas fielddevelopment and production. the company has evolved

25、 from a pure oemprovider to one that can provide one-stop engineering, procurement, andconstruction services (epc) for its high-end equipment clientele, whichincludes globally renowned brands like fmc technologies, emerson processmanagement, ascom separation, enhydra ltd., and audubon engineering.sp

26、ecifically, jutals processing equipment can be categorized into threesubcategories: 1) oil separation equipment, 2) water treatment equipment, and 3)natural gas equipment. the ultimate purpose of these equipments is toefficiently separate the oil/gas from within the oil/gas-water mixtures extractedf

27、rom wells or pipelines before they are transported to their next processingstation.the current oil-industry trend is to purchase or outsource high-quality oilequipments made in china, which are 25%-35% cheaper than internationalcounterparts. however, only a few selected companies are allowed on any

28、oilmajors list of approved equipment providers, due to strict design, quality andsafety requirements. entry barriers are raised even higher during screening, as aproven track record is required for each supplier.figure 1: zhuhai jutals productsoil treatment equipmentwater treatment equipment natural

29、 gas treatment equipmentsource: the company, cms (hk) ltd.please see important notice on the last page.5 of 25company reportjutals processing equipments are considered high-end and adhere tointernational manufacturing standards and qualifications such as iso9001,dvn, asme “u” and “u2” certification,

30、 national board of boilers andpressure vessel inspector “nb”, and chinas manufacturing license of specialequipment (pressure vessels). hence, its end-users are normally internationaloil equipment providers and oil majors which account for roughly 75% ofequipment sales e.g. fmc, cameron, chevron, hus

31、ky, etc. the remaining 25%of sales are to chinese oil majors oversea oil and gas projects such aspetrokazakhstan, which is 67% owned by cnpc.the process equipment segment is the main contributor to jutals top lineaccounting for 55-70% to total sales between fy09 and fy12. since fy09,sales of process

32、ing equipment have grown at a stable 16% cagr. gross profitmargins are also relatively stable at around 20%. however, during 1h12 grossmargins have shown an upward bounce that we believed can be attributed to thecompanys new production facilities in zhuhai, which allows for more efficientjob process

33、es and a transition to higher-end subsea processing equipment,through its alliance with fmc technologies.figure 2: zhuhai jutals productsfigure 3: equipment sold to petrokazakhstanprocess equip. salesrmb000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000process equip. gross profitgp margin %25.0%20.0%15.0

34、%10.0%5.0%0.0%2009201020111h12source: the company, cmk (hk) ltd.source: the company, cms (hk)the other 30% of jutals revenue comes from 1) technical support for oil & gasequipment and 2) technical support for shipbuilding, which accounts for 18%and 12% of respective revenue during 1h12. however,

35、 revenue from these twosegments have been slowing declining at 5.8% and 0.4% cagr as leadersconsolidate technical expertise within the respective industries. we are in theview that these two segments will become value-added services that enhancejutals capabilities to provide one-stop epc service whi

36、ch comprises of oil &gas equipment design, equipment manufacturing, installation & commissioning,and on-site service.zhuhai production facility paves way for production expansionin fy11, jutal purchased zhuhai prospering offshore oil engineering ltd (珠海茂盛海洋石油工程有限公司) which owns a 400,000squar

37、e meter industrialblock of land located at the equipment manufacturing area of zhuhais gaolanport economic zone, guangdong. the rmb140.5mn purchase was paid mostlywith 124,699,278 new shares at hk$1.16/share to jutals chairman mr. wangplease see important notice on the last page.6 of 25company repor

38、tlishan (王立山) in a connected transaction.the new zhuhai plant gives jutal the capability to develop subsea equipment aswell as enlarge the companys r&d and engineering capacity and cooperatewith domestic and foreign research and engineering institutions specifically forsubsea equipment and syste

39、ms.there are currently two construction bases (70,000square meters and 130,000square meters) and three at gaolan after completing phase ii development insept 2012. the new facilities include an 800meter quay and allow jutal toincrease its fabrication capacity by 200%.figure 4: planned layout of zhuh

40、ai plantsource: companyfigure 5: jutal zhuhai phase ii completionsource: companyfigure 6: skid way for 2000tonne crane and pier facilitiessource: companyplease see important notice on the last page.7 of 25company reportadditional funding will most likely be needed to complete zhuhai plantafter compl

41、eting phase ii of the zhuhai plant, only half of the total400,000square meters have been developed. based on the companys layoutplan for the site, only one out of the four skid ways has been completed.furthermore, there should be at least another two covered construction baysthat need to be erected.

42、during phase ii, the company reported required investment of rmb55.0mn inorder to complete the one port and skid way and another rmb45.0mn forsubsequent plant and ancillary facilities. one this premise, we estimate thatanother rmb165.0mn is needed to complete the remaining ports and skid waysand ano

43、ther rmb90.0mn is need for two additional construction bays, hencetotaling rmb255.0mn.as of the latest balance sheet, jutal had a cash balance of rmb59.1mn withcurrent bank loans of rmb132.4mn and total equity of rmb848.0mn. thisputs gearing and net gearing at 15.6% and 8.6% as of 30 june 2012. if t

44、hecompany were solely to rely on bank financing to complete the zhuhai plant,gearing and net gearing would surge to 45.6% and 38.7%, respectively.providing subsea equipment for chevrons wheatstone projectjutal, through its strategic alliance with fmc technologies, is building subseamanifolds for che

45、vrons us$29bn wheatstone lng project in australia.according to chevron australias website, the wheatstone field, located 200kmnorth of onslow off western australias pilbara coast, is one of australiaslargest resource projects with resources estimated at 4.5tcf of gas.fmc technologies was awarded the

46、 contract to supply subsea hardware for theproject with the time frame from 1 june 2011 to 31 dec 2014 and the scope ofsupplying subsea production trees, subsea wellhead systems, productionmanifolds, etc. fmc then subcontracted fabrication works to jutal, since thecompany was the only company in chi

47、na that meets the qualifications andrequirements for safety, quality, delivery and cost (sqdc).we estimate that jutal will provide at least 3 subsea manifolds for fmctechnologies starting from 2013 to end of 2014, with asp of rmb300mn/unit.figure 7: fabrication of subsea manifolds for chevrons wheat

48、stone projectsource: chevronplease see important notice on the last page.8 of 25company reportfigure 8: coating materials and services 1h12 revenue figure 9: typical subsea production operationsource: company, cms (hk) ltd.figure 10: subsea manifold main partsstructure with pipingsource: ge oil &

49、; gassubsea control module (scm)sensors & flowmeterflowlines hubsmud matsource: fmc technologiespig divertervaluecheck valves and chokesmanual & hydraulicactuated gate valvesplease see important notice on the last page.9 of 25company reportpenglai jutalpenglai jutal is principally engaged in

50、 the provision of offshore oil and naturalgas exploration and production operation, quayside machinery, chemicalengineering facilities and steel formation design, fabrication, installation andrepair, offshore back office services as well as quayside and warehouseservices.jutal acquired 30% of the eq

51、uity interest in penglai jutal offshore engineeringheavy industries co., ltd. (“penglai jutal”) at the end of 2007 forrmb255.3mn, and injected an additional capital of usd4.8 million in the firsthalf of 2008 in proportion to its equity interest in penglai jutal for thesubsequent constructions in pen

52、glai jutal. although it holds just a 30% stake,jutal is penglai jutals largest shareholder. other shareholders include cnoocinvestment and holding company (25.2% stake), sembcopr utilities (22.4%stake), and shenzhen chiwan petroleum supply base co., ltd (22.4% stake).strategically located in penglai

53、 at the heart of the bohai bay, penglai jutalutilizes its technical & management innovation, low-cost & high efficiencyadvantage to constructs platforms and rig modules for it primary client,cnooc, which is an ultimate shareholder.domestic projects contracted and completed by penglai jutal i

54、nclude theplatform jackets for the ledong project, wenchang project, bozhong project,bonan and bozhong (phase ii ) project, suizhong project, and jinxian project,.figure 11: penglai jutals productsconstruction of living quartersrig module constructionoil platform constructionsource: companyoverseas,

55、 penglai jutal successfully completed construction of a single pointmooring system for the blue water company in the netherlands, signed along-term cooperation agreement with amclyde, obtained nine floating craneprojects, and commenced the fpso module project for norway aker companyand the manufactu

56、ring project of lower part facilities of the awilco deepwaterdrilling rig.with cnooc and its engineering subsidiary cooec as its primary client, webelieve that cnoocs own development capex can be used as a proxy for pastand future contribution by penglai jutal to listco, jutal. contribution frompeng

57、lai jutal bottomed in fy11 when contracts awarded amounted to onlyplease see important notice on the last page.10 of 25company report4,630tonnes and cnoocs development capex dropped to just rmb23.5bn.that is a stark contrast to fy09 when contracts totaled 46,960tonnes whilecnoocs development was 20%

58、 greater. for fy13, cnooc is planning tospend us$12-14bn on capex. development capex normally accounts for 70%of spending which would mean that about us$13bn or rmb81bn could bespent on development this year which would be four times the amount budgetedin fy09. if the relation between cnoocs develop

59、ment capex and penglaijutals net profit holds true, fy13 contribution could more the double tormb65.7mn versus fy12 expected levels.figure 12: penglai jutal project and earnings profile vs. cnoocs development spendingproject weight (tonnes)penglai jutals net profit30% share to jutalrmbmncnooc develo

60、pment capextonnes5000045000rmb000 140003000001200040000250000100003500030000250002000015000200000 8000150000 6000100000 40001000050000200050000002009201020112012e2013e2014esource: the company, cms(hk)a potential acquisition?a possible vertical expansion for the company would be the acquisition of amajority stake in penglai jutal. as of the latest balance sheet, jutals interest inp