Towards a Low Carbon Future Challenges for University of Bath：向低碳未来挑战巴斯大学

1、a low carbon future - challenges for the energy systemnick eyrelower carbon futures programmeenvironmental change instituteuniversity of oxford challenges for the energy system global challenges the role of carbon markets decarbonising energy the role of energy demandchallenges for the energy system

2、 global challenges the role of carbon markets decarbonising energy the role of energy demand1. climate change source: ipcc, 2007ipcc, 20072. rising world energy demand3. energy inequalitysource: unep4. carbon resources4700 gt600 gtcarbon in fossil fuel reservesbased on ipcc, 2007carbon as co2 in the

3、 pre-industrial atmospherea summary of the global challenges radical reductions in carbon emissions from fossil fuels are required, but world energy use is rising there is a development imperative to increase energy use in many countries energy use is dominated by fossil fuels fossil fuels are not a

4、bout to run out a low carbon future requires systemic change in the energy sector and this will have to be a purposeful choicechallenges for the energy system global challenges the role of carbon markets decarbonising energy the role of energy demand1. carbon pricesretail fuel costs1. carbon pricesr

5、etail fuel costs and the euets pricethe big international challenge is the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb co2, not the capacity of the earth to supply carbon. prices dont reflect this! 2. eu ets scope only power generators and large energy users are covered by the cap use of the atmosphere is

6、free to other users. small and medium energy users light industry, commerce, public sector and transport - are not incentivised at all. although electricity prices are affected, electricity users are not directly involved.3. pricing carbon is insufficient -there are other energy market failuresbased

7、 on uk energy review, 2002 and stern, 2006market failureintervention requiredfree use of atmospheric sinkprice carbon through taxation or tradingbenefits of innovation not capturedsupport new technologies with targeted mechanismscost effective technologies not fully usedregulation and incentives to

8、change in energy user investmentlikely effects of existing carbon markets will deliver incentives to reductions in deforestation transfer energy technology to developing countries switch from coal to gas in power generation adopt renewables that are nearly cost effective develop nuclear power (possi

9、bly) will not (alone) deliver sufficient incentives for carbon capture and storage most renewable sources (e.g. offshore wind, marine, solar pv) energy efficiency (outside energy intensive industry) build new infrastructure modest price changes do not deliver systemic changechallenges for the energy

10、 system global challenges the role of carbon markets decarbonising energy the role of energy demandzero carbon electricity the potential and the problems nuclear well established but with known problems: waste, security, cost and timescales fossil fuels with co2 capture technically feasible not demo

11、nstrated at a commercial scale renewables huge resource and some good uk potential scaling to significant contribution is non-trivialan optimistic view of a renewable futuresource: iiasa/wec ecologically driven scenarioare we asking the right questions?the normal political and media discourse is aro

12、und questions like: how fast can we substitute for coal in power generation? how much electricity can we get from low carbon sources nuclear, renewables, carbon capture and storage? which of these should we prefer? butan energy user perspectiveuk energy use by fuelan energy user perspective uk carbo

13、n emissionshow can energy policy that focuses on electricity supply deliver a 60% or 80% carbon emissions reduction?a better set of questions might include how do we reduce oil use (in transport)? how do we reduce gas use (in heating)?.and there are only two possible answers reduce total demand subs

14、titute fossil fuels with a low carbon fuel at the point of use, or plausible low carbon scenarios indicate that both are needed both involve thinking about energy from a user perspectivecarbon emissions reduction to 2020based on uk climate change programme 2006changes required in global investment t

15、o deliver a low carbon economysource: unfccc, 2007challenges for the energy system global challenges the role of carbon markets decarbonising electricity “carbon realism” the role of energy demanddeveloped world energy consumption by sectorback to first principleswhat is energy use for? energy servi

16、ces (e.g. warmth, illumination, mobility) are the fundamental demand, not energy. carbon emissions, c (c/e) x (e/s) x s all s wherec/e is the carbon intensity of energye/s is energy intensity (inverse of energy efficiency)s is energy service demand. the demand side is about the first and seconddeman

17、d side carbon reductionlow carbon optione.g. car, boiler, lights and appliancesdiscretionary investmente.g. insulation, solar panelsgood housekeepinge.g. switching off lights, turning down thermostats lifestyle changee.g. cycling, not flying, vegetarianismefficiency improvement “investment behaviour

18、”service demand reduction“in use behaviour”minor changemajor changeenergy efficiency investment can reduce climate change profitablysource: uk energy review, 2002, excluding transporttackling the trio of market failures -by market transformationresearchearly adoptionmass adoptionlate adoptionsupport

19、 for innovationincentives and good informationregulationan example from the past uk fridge/freezer salessource: est, 2008an ongoing example -lighting energy use in uk homesa possible future example a scenario for energy use in uk homes household energy supply moves to on site technology demand side

20、change catalyses supply side changeoil and solid fuelmains gas for boilers and cookinggrid electricitygas chprenewable heatmicro-chprenewable powerwhat about in use behaviour?low carbon optione.g. car, boiler, lights and appliances purchasediscretionary investmente.g. insulation, solar panelsgood ho

21、usekeepinge.g. switching off lights, turning down thermostats lifestyle changee.g. cycling, not flying, vegetarianismefficiency improvement “investment behaviour”service demand reduction“in use behaviour”minor changemajor changedoes behaviour make a difference? “in use behaviour” is a major determinant of energy use behaviour does change! timely provision of good information can reduce energy use by up to 15% technology can help, in particular new metering and feedback technologies engagement of people, at home and work, is crucial to delivering changelifestyle change cycling