PetroChinaTopic1_奥巴马政府执政下的美国能源政策

1、此演示文档的目的是为您提供最新的信息，但不作为提供法律建议而使用23Climate change must be addressed.Administration supports development of U.S. natural gas reserves partly based on climate concerns. Hydraulic fracturing desirable based on natural gass lighter climate impact relative to other fossil fuels.Environmental concerns are

2、surmountable and manageable if approached with capable hands. 4Near-term environmental policy goals: Lower the greenhouse gas (“GHG”) intensity of current carbon-based sources; Continued investment in renewable energy sources; Slow return to nuclear. Longer-term environmental policy goals: Significa

3、ntly stronger reliance on renewables, nuclear, and lowest-emitting carbon sources.5U.S. policy regarding hydraulic fracturing driven by economic and environmental considerations relative to other fossil fuels.Replacement of coal by natural gas produces economic and environmental benefits, including

4、significant greenhouse gas dividend.U.S. likely to become net natural gas exporter by 2020. 。6Despite natural gas boom, domestic oil production expected to be a major part of U.S. energy future.Petroleum will contribute to U.S. energy independence.Goal is to reduce emissions not production.7Climate

5、change response Legislative response to climate change not possible under current political conditions. Administration focusing on administrative response under the Clean Air Act.Following finding by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) in 2009 that six greenhouse gases constitute a “threat

6、to public health and welfare,” EPA has undertaken several policy initiatives: Tighter emissions standards for new and existing power plants; Tighter emissions standards for natural gas production wells; New emissions reporting requirements; Tighter vehicle fuel and emissions standards; Renewable fue

7、l requirements.8Climate change response Tighter emissions standards for power plants oEPA has proposed stricter carbon emissions standards for new power plants. Proposal would make it difficult or impossible to build new coal-based power plants. Rule not yet final.oEPA is preparing to propose strict

8、er carbon emissions standards for existing power plants. This proposal is more controversial, as it would likely require many existing coal-fired power plants to install costly emissions control technology or face shutdown. oEPAs efforts regarding carbon emissions effectively favor natural gas over

9、coal, creating further demand for natural gas production.9Climate change response Tighter emissions standards for natural gas production wellsoNew performance standard for hydraulically fractured wells requires “green completion” technology on natural-gas related fracking equipment beginning in 2015

10、.oRule seeks to reduce emissions of volatile organic compounds (“VOCs”) by 95 percent. oRule does not apply directly to methane emissions, but EPA expects methane emissions will be reduced as an indirect effect of the required “green completion” technology. EPA faces legal and political pressure to

11、include methane emission reductions in a future version of the rule.10Climate change response New emissions reporting requirements oEPA issued rule in 2009 requiring reporting of GHG emissions by greenhouse gas emitters, fossil fuel suppliers, industrial gas suppliers, and facilities that inject CO2

12、 underground.oRule applies to facilities with emissions greater than 25,000 metric tons of CO2-equivalent per year. Rule also applies to suppliers of products that will emit CO2 when combusted, released or oxidized.11Climate change response Tighter vehicle fuel and emissions standardsObama Administr

13、ation ordered EPA to work with National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to develop a joint program to reduce GHG emissions from vehicles and improve vehicle fuel efficiency.Program sets GHG emissions caps and fuel efficiency requirements according to vehicle size. Rule applies to light-duty ve

14、hicles through 2025 vehicle models. Similar program applies to heavy-duty vehicles trucks, vans, buses, etc. through 2018 vehicle models.oEmissions and fuel efficiency targets get stricter over time to incentivize the development of a cleaner vehicle fleet.12Climate change response Renewable fuel re

15、quirementsoObama Administration has expanded a Bush Administration program requiring a certain percentage of gasoline sold in the U.S. to be renewable fuel, including ethanol and biodiesel.o“Renewable Fuel Standard” program now also applies to diesel fuels used on roads, in trains, and in marine ves

16、sels. Under Obama EPA, the required volumes of renewable fuels in U.S. fuel supply to increase sharply through 2022.oRenewable fuels can be blended into existing fuels or sold directly in pure form.13Energy independenceAdministration strongly supports expanding domestic production of oil and natural

17、 gas via modern drilling techniques (i.e., hydraulic fracturing); U.S. Department of the Interior (“DOI”) is working to make onshore and offshore leases available for development through lease sales and incentives.Oil imports declining due to booming domestic oil and gas production, increased vehicl

18、e fuel efficiency, and strong growth in refining sector.14Safety standards for resource developmentSince Deepwater Horizon incident in 2010, Obama Administration has increased regulation and oversight of offshore oil and gas drilling. New regulations include heightened drilling safety standards and

19、stricter containment and response rules in the event of a spill.EPA, U.S. Department of Energy (“DOE”), and DOI all studying best practices for the safe use of hydraulic fracturing. DOI seeking to regulate fracking on federal lands, but these efforts are controversial.15Clean energy development清洁能源发

20、展清洁能源发展2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (stimulus) made major investment in clean energy development, nearly doubling renewable energy generation since 2008. DOI has approved dozens of renewable energy projects, including solar installations, wind farms, and geothermal facilities. DOE sup

21、porting dozens of clean energy projects through a loan guarantee program, including a commitment to support the financing of the first new commercial nuclear power plant in the United States in more than 30 years.。16Natural gas: Inescapable and significant part of energy future; significant greenhou

22、se gas reduction dividend.天然气：不可避免并且是未来能源重要组成部分；显著降低温室气体排放天然气：不可避免并且是未来能源重要组成部分；显著降低温室气体排放Domestic oil: Necessary part of near-term energy future; contributor to goal of U.S. energy independence.国内原油：近期必要组成部分；帮助美国能源独立。国内原油：近期必要组成部分；帮助美国能源独立。Coal: Long-term future in some doubt. Domestic demand expec

23、ted to fall in response to carbon emission restrictions and increasing fuel efficiency, but foreign consumption could offset drop in domestic demand.煤炭：长期发展存在疑虑。因碳排放限制及燃油效率提高，预计国内需求将下降，但国外需煤炭：长期发展存在疑虑。因碳排放限制及燃油效率提高，预计国内需求将下降，但国外需求增加将抵消国内的需求下降。求增加将抵消国内的需求下降。Nuclear and renewables: Major part of long-

24、term energy future.核能及可再生能源：远期能源重要组成部分。核能及可再生能源：远期能源重要组成部分。171819 U.S. crude oil production will rise sharply over the next decade, driven by onshore production using fracking and horizontal drilling technologies. Oil production decreases gradually after 2020 as the most productive tight formations

25、become depleted. Natural gas production increases steadily over the next three decades using modern drilling technologies; U.S. likely becomes net natural gas exporter in 2020. Liquid natural gas (LNG) exports grow as facilities come online; U.S. could become net LNG exporter as early as 2016.。Sourc

26、e: U.S. Energy Information Administration来源：美国能源信息署20 U.S. demand for oil expected to remain relatively steady through 2040, driven by transportation sector. Oil and other liquid petroleum fuels will continue to be the largest single type of energy consumed in the U.S., though by a lesser margin as

27、natural gas and renewables grow in market share.2040年前，由于交通运输的需求，美国石油消费需求将基本保持稳定。尽管由于天然气和可再生能源的增长，占有率稍有降低，但石油和其他液体石油燃料仍将是美国消耗的最大单一类型能源。 Natural gas will be used increasingly in place of coal as fuel for U.S. electricity generation and for heavy freight transportation. 随着用于替代燃煤发电以及应用于重型货物运输车用燃料，天然气消耗

28、将逐渐增加。 Consumption of renewable fuels primarily wind, solar and biomass nearly triples through 2040, but overall share of U.S. energy consumption will only rise from 8 percent to 11 percent.到2040年，可再生能源消耗-主要是风能、太阳能和生物质能将是目前三倍，但占美国能源消耗的总份额将只会从8%增至11%。Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 来源：

29、美国能源信息署21 The percentage of total U.S. energy consumption derived from imported energy falls by roughly half between 2011 and 2040. Imported energy is roughly one-fifth of total U.S. consumption now, falling to roughly one-tenth by 2040. 美国进口能源占比总能源消耗的比率从2011年至2040年将减少一半。从目前的约五分之一降至2040年的约十分之一。 Redu

30、ction driven by both supply and demand: Domestic oil and gas production increases due to new drilling technologies, and domestic consumption rate slows though continues to rise as energy prices rise and vehicles become more fuel-efficient in response to rising efficiency standards.降低由供给和需求两方面驱动：国内油气

31、产量由于新开采技术而升高；由于能源价格升高及车辆随着提高的效率标准而更更省油，国内能源消耗增长率将减缓-尽快总消耗仍将升高。Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration来源：美国能源信息署22 Natural gas prices are regional in nature. The North American market can move independently of the European or Asian markets. These regional markets may eventually converge into a

32、 single global market as natural gas shipping technologies mature.天然气价格时区域性的。北美市场天然气价格可以独立于欧洲或亚洲市场。随着天然气运输技术的成熟，这些区域性市场有可能最终汇聚成一个全球统一的市场。 The North American price of natural gas fell sharply from 2005 to 2010 based on rapidly developing U.S. reserves, but will rise slowly again through 2040 as domes

33、tic production costs and global demand rise.2005至2010年，由于国内产量的迅速增加，北美天然气价格大幅下跌，但随着国内开采成本升高及全球需求增加，会于2040年再次缓慢上升。 Natural gas and renewables moderately increase their U.S. market share through 2040; coal stays flat.到2040年，天然气和可再生能源在美国市场占有率将适度增加，煤炭保持平稳。Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration来源：

34、美国能源信息署23Oil prices are global, and so are more unpredictable and less influenced by changes in U.S. production. 油价是全球性的，因此更加难以预料及更小受到美国产量影响。Oil prices could rise sharply through 2040, could rise more slowly, or could stay relatively flat. Prices will be driven by the strength of the global economy

35、and the resulting demand for oil, global oil production and supply, and global production and supply of other energy sources.到2040年，石油价格可能大幅上升，可能缓慢上升，也可能保持相对平稳。油价将受到全球经济情况，以及由此造成的石油需求，和全球石油产量及供给，以及全球其他能源的生产和需求的共同影响。Petroleum loses a small amount of U.S. market share to natural gas and renewables ove

36、r the next three decades, but remains the largest single source of energy consumed in the United States.未来30年，石油将失去美国能源市场一小部分份额于天然气和可再生能源，但仍将是美国市场单一消耗的最大能源。Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration来源：美国能源信息署24U.S. energy production by fuel, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)美国能源产量美国能源产量-燃料，燃料，1980-204

37、0（千万亿英热单位）（千万亿英热单位）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013资料来源：美国能源信息署，年度能源展望2013* “Liquids” are primarily petroleum products, but also include biofuels and hydrocarbons derived from natural gas and coal. Does not include “liquefied natural gas.”液态主要是石油产品，也包括生物燃料和源

38、于天然气和煤炭的碳氢化合物。但不包括LNG。LIQUIDS: Overall*液态：总览液态：总览Increase driven by increased onshore oil production, mostly from tight oil formations 增加主要来自于陆路产量，最主要是致密层Tight oil production increases from 1/3 of total onshore oil production in 2011 to 1/2 in 2040 2011至2040年，致密油产量由占陆路产量的1/3升至1/2Offshore crude oil p

39、roduction stays steady via development projects in Gulf of Mexico 海上原油产量通过在墨西哥湾开发项目基本保持稳定25U.S. petroleum/liquids production, 1990-2040 (million b/d)美国石油美国石油/液体产量，液体产量，1990-2040（百万桶（百万桶/天）天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013资料来源：美国能源信息署，年度能源展望2013LIQUIDS: By s

40、ource液态：来源液态：来源26% total increase in liquids(2011-2020)液态总增长26%（2011-2020）Increase driven by growth in onshore production of crude oil and natural gas liquids from tight oil formations增长由陆路致密油层的原油和天然气产量增加驱动Liquids production levels off after 2020 as development turns to less-productive tight oil pla

41、ys2020年后液态产量持平，-因为陆路开发转向产量较低的致密油板块26U.S. crude oil production, 2000-2040 (million b/d) 美国原油产量美国原油产量 ， 2000-2040 （百万桶（百万桶/天）天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 LIQUIDS: Crude oil 液态：原油液态：原油30% total increase in crude oil production through 2020, driven primari

42、ly by tight oil production in lower 48 states到2020年原油产量总增长30，主要、在其他48个州产量紧张Tight oil production reaches 2.8 million b/d in 2020, declines to 2.0 million in 2040紧张的石油产量达到280万万桶/天，2020年下降到2.0万美元High-productivity “sweet spots” depleted sometime after 2020高生产量的“制高点” 在2020年后的某个时候消失27U.S. crude oil produc

43、tion, 2000-2040 (million b/d)美国原油产量美国原油产量 ， 2000-2040 （百万桶（百万桶/天）天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013LIQUIDS: Offshore oil 种类：海上石油种类：海上石油Offshore oil production remains steady through 2040 海上石油的产量到2040将保持稳定As tight oil production grows this decade, offshore sh

44、are of total production falls from about half to less than 1/3由于近十年紧张的石油产量增长，海上石油份额占总产量从约一半至不足1/3Tight oil development slows after 2020; offshore oil development remains steady致密油开发在2020年后减缓，海洋石油开发保持稳定28U.S. tight oil production by formation, 2008-2040 (million b/d)美国致密油产量的形成，美国致密油产量的形成，2008至至2040年（

45、百万桶年（百万桶/天）天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013LIQUIDS: Tight oil 种类：致密油种类：致密油25.3 billion barrels of tight oil expected 2012-20402012年至2040年致密油产量约 253亿桶Roughly 1/3 from Bakken formation in North Dakota 大约1/3来自在北达科他州的巴肯地层Permian Basin and Eagle Ford formations

46、 located in western and southern Texas位于西部和南部得克萨斯州的二叠纪盆地和鹰滩地层29U.S. energy production by fuel, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)美国能源生产燃料，美国能源生产燃料，1980年至年至2040年（千万亿英热单位年（千万亿英热单位Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013NATURAL GAS:天然气：天然气：30-year increase driven by shale gas

47、 production via fracking, horizontal drilling30年来通过压裂增加，水平井钻井带动页岩气产量Offshore natural gas production expected to increase after 2015 to 2.8 trillion ft3 per year by 2035预计海上天然气产量在2015年后增加至每年2.8万亿立方英尺到2035年U.S. to become net exporter of LNG in 2016, and net exporter of natural gas in 2020 2016年美国成为液化天

48、然气的净出口国，2020年成为天然气净出口国30U.S. natural gas production, 1990-2040 (trillion ft3/year)美国天然气产量，1990年至2040年（万亿ft3/year）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013NATURAL GAS: 天然气：天然气：44% total increase (2011-2040) 44%总量增长（2011-2040）113% shale gas increase 1113%页岩气增长Shale gas

49、 grows from 34% of total production to 50% of total production页岩气的增长从总产量的34至总产量的50Higher demand and prices in 2020s expected to spur greater offshore and coalbed methane production到2020年更高的需求和价格预计将带动更大的海上和煤层气生产31U.S. natural gas production in three oil price cases, 1990-2040 (trillion ft3/year)美国天然气

50、产量在三大石油价格的情况下，1990年至2040年（万亿ft3/year）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013NATURAL GAS: Impact of oil prices天然气：石油价格的影响Natural gas production driven by oil/gas price differential天然气产量由石油/天然气价格差驱动$24.30/million Btu differential in “High Oil Price” scenario 在“高油价”的情

51、况下$24.30/million英热差High differential leads to higher gas production; gas is used in liquid fuels, exported as LNG 高压差导致产生更多气体;气体用于液体燃料，导出为LNG32U.S. energy production by fuel, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)美国能源生产燃料，美国能源生产燃料，1980年至年至2040年（千万亿英热单位）年（千万亿英热单位）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,

52、Annual Energy Outlook 2013OTHER SOURCES:其他来源其他来源Coal: Production growth slows in competition with cleaner natural gas煤炭：与清洁天然气的竞争产量增长放缓Nuclear: Fukushima disaster and cost of plant replacement keeps nuclear share flat核电：福岛灾难和植物更换成本不断使核份额平稳Renewables: Unclear whether natural gas and renewables will c

53、ompete or complement each other over time可再生能源：不清楚天然气和可再生能源是否会随着时间的推移竞争或相互补充33U.S. energy production and consumption, 1980-2040 (quadrillion Btu)美国的能源生产和消费，1980至2040年（千万亿英热单位）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013OVERALL: 整体：整体：U.S. energy imports declineU.S. 能源进口

54、下滑Oil and gas production up due to onshore fracking of shale and tight formations页岩的陆上压裂和致密的地层导致石油和天然气产量同比增长Demand slows due to price increases and new efficiency standards for vehicles需求放缓是由于物价上涨和机动车新能效标准34U.S. liquid fuels supply, consumption, and net imports, 1970-2040 (million b/d)美国液体燃料的供给，消费和净

55、进口量 1970年至2040年（百万桶/天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013U.S. demand for oil remains steady over coming decades在未来的十年美国的石油需求会持续稳定增长U.S. oil production increases driven by tight oil development美国石油产量会因为致密油的发展而增加LIQUIDS: 液态：液态： 35U.S. liquid fuels supply, consump

56、tion, and net imports, 1970-2040 (million b/d)美国液体燃料的供给，消费和净进口，1970年至2040年（百万桶/天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013LIQUIDS: 液态液态Offshore oil production expected to remain stable at 1.5-2.0 million barrels/day through 2040海上石油产量预计在2040年达到1.5-2.0万桶/天保持稳定Deep and

57、 ultra-deep wells will become major development sources, particularly in Alaska and Gulf of Mexico深水和超深水井将成为重要的发展资源，特别是在阿拉斯加和墨西哥湾36U.S. liquid fuels supply, consumption, and net imports, 1970-2040 (million b/d)美国液体燃料的供给，消费和净进口，1970年至2040年（百万桶/天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual

58、Energy Outlook 2013LIQUIDS: 液态：液态：Liquids imports decline; lowest share of consumption (34%) in 2019; slight increase afterward液体进口量下降;在2019年消耗量占（34）;之后会略有增加Decline in tight oil production begins in 2021致密油的产量会在2021年下降Lower production of biofuels and natural gas plant liquids expected in 2020s and 2

59、030s生物燃料和天然气工厂液体产量会在2020年和2030年降低37U.S. liquid fuels supply, consumption, and net imports, 1970-2040 (million b/d)美国液体燃料的供给，消费和净进口，1970年至2040年（百万桶/天）Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013LIQUIDS:Despite decline in U.S. liquids imports through 2020, imports still 1

60、/3 of total U.S. supply尽管到2020年美国的液态进口会下降，进口量仍会占到总量的1/3U.S. crude oil imports from Angola, Algeria, and Nigeria dropped by roughly half from 2009 to 2011; imports from Saudi Arabia declined less2009至2011年，来自安哥拉，阿尔及利亚，尼日利亚和美国原油进口量下降了大约一半从沙特阿拉伯进口量下降较少38U.S. liquid fuels supply, consumption, and net im