财务报表分析与证券投资-姜国华(ppt48页)(1)

1、财务报表分析与证券投资姜国华guohua jiang北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授associate professor of accountingguanghua school of managementpeking university1the father of accounting-luca pacioli (1445-1517)nhe wrote a famous mathematics booknin one chapter he invented double-entry accounting systemnhe taught leonardo da vinci perspec

2、tive and proportionality. the knowledge was used to paint “the last supper”2n学过财务报表分析课程的请举手3dow jones industrial average 1930-20024djia, nasdaq 1990-2002020004000600080001000012000140005back to square one: djia 1998-20027500800085009000950010000105001100011500120006d or dot.bomb-nasdaq 1998-20020100

3、020003000400050007the three major stock exchanges0500010000150002000025000nyseamexnasdaqus#of listedffirmsmarket cap.billions8the regulator of u.s. stock market9the current sec commissioners 10who issue american accounting standards?11international accounting standards12“big four” international acco

4、unting firmsnernst young (worldwide revenue 2002: $10.1 billions, 4.3 billions in the u.s.)npricewaterhousecoopersndeloitte & touchenkpmg13中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会 (chinese securities regulatory commission)14number of stocks814531832913235307458519471086115412231285137302004006008001000120014001600199019911

5、992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004number of stocks at shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges15amount of capital raised020406080100120140160199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004billion rmbamount of capital raised through stock markets16market cap. (a share)05001

6、00015002000250030003500400045005000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004billion rmbmarket capitalization17market size relative to nyse2004-12-31nysesh+szno. of stocks27471373market cap (billion usd)1960045318shanghai a share index050010001500200025002-jan-9128-oct-9120-aug-921

7、5-jun-9311-apr-948-feb-9530-nov-958-oct-9615-aug-9725-jun-986-may-9917-mar-0018-jan-014-dec-0124-oct-022-sep-0315-jul-04market performance19profitability of chinese listed firms: 1992-200420roe21 stock market capitalization/gdp(%) nation198019901999nation198019901999argentina0.110.15italy0.070.0130.

8、68australia0.380.371.13japan0.331.640.95austria0.030.170.17netherlands3belgium0.090.310.82norway0.540.230.7brazil0.050.080.45southafrica1.231.331.2canada0.461.221.22spain0.170.410.69chile0.340.51.05sweden0.110.371.77egypt0.010.060.29swissland0.441.933.23france0.090.241.17u.k.0.380.812.25ge

9、rmany0.090.20.67u.s.0.460.541.52india0.050.160.4622share types in chinasharestradablenon-tradableindividualforeignlegal personstatea shareb shareh, n, s, share2324share structures of chinese listed companies (december, 2001)non-tradable (0.1 billion shares):state shares 2410.61 46.20domestic legal p

10、erson shares 663.17 12.71other non-tradable shares 331.07 6.4%total non-tradable 3404.85 65.25tradable:a shares 1318.13 25.26% b shares 163.09 3.13% h/n and other shares 331.94 6.36%total tradable: 1813.16 34.75%total: 5218.01 100%25large shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/tunnelinga

11、n example, jiang, lee and yue, (2005)26序号合格境外机构投资者（qfii）名称1瑞士银行有限公司 （ubs limited）2野村证券株式会社 （nomura securities co., ltd）3花旗环球金融有限公司 （citigroup global markets limited）4摩根士丹利国际有限公司 （morgan stanley & international limited）5高盛公司 （goldman sachs & co.）6香港上海汇丰银行有限公司 （the hongkong and shanghai banking corpor

12、ation limited）7德意志银行 （deutsche bank ag）8荷兰商业银行（ing bank n.v.）9摩根大通银行（jpmorgan chase bank）10瑞士信贷第一波士顿（香港）有限公司（credit suisse first boston (hong kong) limited）11日兴资产管理公司（nikko asset management co., ltd）12渣打银行香港分行（standard chartered bank hong kong）13恒生银行有限公司（hang seng bank limited）14大和证券smbc株式会社（daiwa s

13、ecurities smbc co.,ltd）15美林国际（merrill lynch international）16雷曼兄弟国际（欧洲）公司（lehman brithers international europe）17比尔盖茨-美林达基金（bill & melinda gates foundation）18荷兰银行（abn amro bank n.v.）19法国兴业银行（societe generale）20巴克莱银行（barclays bank plc）21法国巴黎银行（bnp parisbas）22德国德雷斯顿银行（dresdner bank aktiengesellschaft）2

14、3富通银行（fortis bank）24加拿大鲍尔集团（power corporation of canada）25东方汇理银行（calyon s.a.）26景顺资产管理公司（invesco asset management limited）27chinas stock market: a ten-year perspectivefrom zero to an important emerging capital marketfirst developed fast, then became stagnant:fewer new listingsmarket index downraises

15、less capitalless trading activitieslisted companies performed worseoverall less important in the booming economy!28the users of financial statementsnequity investorsncreditorsngovernmentncustomernsuppliersnlabor union29课程结构第一节 会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节 会计报表回顾-资产负债表第三节 会计报表回顾-损益表第四节 会计报表回顾-现金流量表第五节 赢余管理与赢余质量第六节

16、 赢利能力分析第七节 赢利预测第八节 风险分析第九节 证券价值评估30perspectives of this coursena security analysts perspectivenemphasize two issues: earnings management and valuation31earnings management: rao, teoh, wong, review of accounting studies, 199832earnings restatements min wu, hkust333435widespread earnings manipulation

17、(jiang and wang 2005)36accounting-based valuationnwho are my peers? earnings multiples, book-value multiples, sales multiplesneva, economic value added, residual income valuation (riv), edward, bell, ohlson model (ebo)nin one word, share value = f (earnings, book value, dividend, cash flow, etc.)37a

18、ccounting-based valuation-238how important is accounting information?njanuary 22, 2003, after market closed, at&t (stock symbol t) announced:revenue for 4th quarter shrank to $9.3 billion from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous yearloss from continuing operations widened to $611 million fro

19、m $216 million.39how important is accounting information? (http:)40how important is accounting information?nin the weekend before monday, feb. 3, 2003, mattel (mat) announced fourth quarter results: nrevenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9% to $1.56 billion. nnet income increased by 35% to $186.1 million.nearnings per share (eps) increased to 42 cents