外文翻译--贸易及经济增长在日本和韩国的实证分析

1、外文翻译-贸易及经济增长在日本和韩国的实证分析 本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目 Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Koreaan empirical analysis 出 处 Empir Econ 2010 38139158 作 者 Hock Tsen Wong 原 文Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Koreaan empirical analysis1 IntroductionTerms of trade and terms of trade volatility ha

2、ve a critical impact on economic growth particularly during world episodes of global integration or disintegration when export prices converge or diverge worldwide inducing large terms of trade changes andeconomy-wide responses However their inuence is ambiguous An increase in terms of trade could e

3、ither lead to an increase or a decrease in economic growth Generally an increase in terms of trade will lead to an increase in investment and thus economic growth will increase Mendoza Bleaney and Greenaway and Blattman et al amongst others report a positive impact of terms of trade on economic grow

4、th Eicher et aldevelop an inter-temporal model to examine the impact of a decrease in terms of trade on current account and output with the focus on a developing country The model shows that a decrease in terms of trade will have a negative effect on income and wealth In the long run a decrease in t

5、erms of trade will lead to a proportional decrease in the debt level of an economy whilst output capital and borrowing will not change Thus a change in terms of trade will only affect economic growth in the short run and not in the long run A high terms of trade volatility will lead to the re-alloca

6、tion of both input and output because of aversion to risk This will involve costs and losses and thus economic growth will decrease This is particularly important where hedge markets are incomplete Empirical studies into the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth a

7、re dominated by cross-country research Nonetheless it is interesting to examine the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on a particular economy This study examines the impact of terms of trade on real gross domestic product GDP per capita in Japan and Korea using time series data

8、Japan is a relatively large closed economy whilst Korea is a relatively small open economy Moreover Japan has achieved a low economic growth rate over the past few decades whilst Korea has achieved a relatively high economic growth rate This study thus provides some evidence of whether terms of trad

9、e have contributed significantly to a relatively low or high economic growth The impact of terms of trade on economic growth is argued to be different across economies Fur- thermore this study examines the impact of terms of trade volatility on real GDP per capita In addition the impact of oil price

10、 and nancial development on real GDP per capita is examined Japan and Korea are both oil importing countries Therefore this study provides some evidence of the impact of oil price on economic growth in a relatively large closed economy and a relatively small open economy The empirical estimation is

11、based on an augmented production function The Dickey and Fuller and Phillips and Perron unit root test statistics are used to examine the stationarity of the data The ohansen cointegration method is used to examine the long-run relationship between terms of trade and real GDP per capita The cointegr

12、ation method is able to test the existence of more than one cointegrating vector in a systemThe generalised forecast error variance decomposition and generalised impulse response function are used to examine the rela- tionship of variables in a system The generalised forecast error variance decompos

13、itions and generalised impulse response functions solve the orthogonalised problem of the forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response functions of Sims The problem is that the latter approaches are sensitive to the order of the variables in the vector autoregressive VAR system This a

14、rticle is organised as follows Section 2 discusses the literature review of terms of trade and economic growth Section 3 explains the methodology and data in this study Section4 presents empirical results and discussions Section 5 provides some concluding remarks 2 Literature review of terms of trad

15、e and economic growthThere are many studies on the relationship between terms of trade and economic growth Mendoza examines the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in 40 industrial and developing countries using cross-sectional data for the period 19711991 The results show a positive impact

16、of terms of trade on economic growth Moreover terms of trade shocks are reported to account for nearly half the changes in actual GDP Furthermore economic growth is found to be slower in countries with higher terms of trade volatility Bleaney and Greenaway examine the impact of terms of trade on eco

17、nomic growth in 14 sub-Saharan African countries using cross-sectional data for the period 19801995 They nd that an increase in terms of trade will lead to an increase in economic growth Hadass and Williamson examine the relationship between terms of trade and economic growth using cross-sectional d

18、ata for the period 18701940 They nd that although terms of trade movement favours primary product exporters it reduces their economic growth Moreover there is strong evidence of asymmetry in economic growth between the core and the periphery Generally the impact of terms of trade on economic growth

19、is very small for both the core and the periphery In the pre-war period changes in terms of trade explained less than one-fth of economic growth which is expressed by the GDP per capita growth rate Nonetheless the study covers few of the developing countries that remained poor up to World War II On

20、the other hand Blattman et al analyse more than half a century of pre-World War II data 18701938 for 35 countries They nd that terms of trade have a significant impact on economic growth Moreover the impact of terms of trade is greater on the periphery than in the core A decline in terms of trade ex

21、perienced by the periphery represented a significant drag on economic growth during those seven decades Furthermore there is asymmetry between the core and the periphery Terms of trade or terms of trade volatility seem to have played little role in the core despite the fact that terms of trade volat

22、ility were almost as high in the core as on the periphery5 However terms of trade appear to have played an important role in explaining the economic growth of the periphery The core could escape the damaging consequences of terms of trade instability an escape that was apparently unavailable to prim

23、ary product exporters of the periphery Blattman et al employ a panel data analysis for 35 countries for the period 18701939 They report the same conclusions they obtained earlier They nd that terms of trade secular change or long-run change have a significant impact on economic growth6 The impact of

24、 terms of trade secular change is more important on the periphery than in the core Nonetheless terms of trade secular change is less important than terms of trade volatility for economic growth The impact of terms of trade differs between the core and the periphery Turnovsky and Chattopadhyay examin

25、e the impact of various sources of volatility on economic growth in a sample of 61 less developed countries for the period 19751992 The data analysed are annually They also separate the sample into two sub-samples namely 31 high volatility countries and 30 low volatility countries An increase in ter

26、ms of trade is found to have a weak impact on economicgrowth and there is no significant evidence that governmentexpenditure or monetary growth has any impact However they nd that terms of trade volatility govrnment expenditure volatility and monetary volatility have a strong negative impact on econ

27、omic growth The volatility may reduce capital intensity particularly where a country faces an upward sloping supply curve of debtThe mean growth rate of terms of trade has a weak positive impact on the mean economic growth rate Grimes examines the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in New Z

28、ealand The results show that approximately half the variance in annual GDP growth over 45 years can be explained by the level and volatility of terms of trade The relationship is robust across four economic regimes Urban 2007 p 471 examines theoretically and empirically the medium and long-run relat

29、ionship between terms of trade and income in industrialised countries The study offers two theoretical channels which relate the terms of trade to income growth in a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model with exible terms of tradeThe home market effect predicts that countries with a faste

30、r economic growth will have real appreciation of their terms of trade The productivity shock effect predicts that countries with a faster economic growth will have real depreciation of their terms of trade 3 Methodology and dataIn this study the impact of terms of trade on economic growth is examine

31、d based on an augmented production function8 More specifically this study examines three vectors The rst vector includes real GDP per capita labourcapital terms of trade oil price and nancial development The second vector includes the same variables as in the rst vector except that terms of trade is

32、 replaced by terms of trade volatility which is measured by the moving standard deviation with order four that is MSD 4 The third vector includes the same variables as in the second vector except that terms of trade volatility is measured by the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic

33、ity model that is GARCH 11 It has been documented that changes in oil price have been closely related to macroeconomic performance Backus and Crucini use a dynamic general equilibrium model and nd that oil price accounts for much of the variation in terms of trade over the last 25 years and its quan

34、titative role varies significantly over time Moreover they report that during the period 19721987 terms of trade of industrialised countries were driven mainly by changes in oil price Furthermore the increased volatility in terms of trade since the end of the Bretton Woods system seems largely due t

35、o the increased volatility in oil price rather than the increased volatility of nominal or real exchange rates Thus oil price is an important factor in the determination of terms of trade A sound nancial system is important for economic growth Financial systems 1 facilitate the trading hedging diver

36、sifying and pooling of risk 2 allocate resources 3 monitor managers and exert corporation control 4 mobilise saving and 5 facil- itate the exchange of goods and services Levine 1997 The increased availability of nancial instruments and institutions reduces transaction and information costs in an eco

37、nomy Nonetheless empirical ndings on the relationship between nancial development and economic growth are less conclusive The DF unit root test statistic is used to examine the stationarity of the data The cointegration method is used to examine the long-run relationship among variables ina vector T

38、he cointegration method proposes two likelihood ratio tests to test the number of cointegrating vectors in the systemIf there are two cointegrating vectors in a vector the rst cointegrating vector shall be identied by normalising real GDP per capita and the second cointegrating vector shall be ident

39、ied by normalising terms of trade The rst cointegrating vector is normalised based on the argument that economic growth of an economy can be estimated using an augmented production function and the second cointegrating vector is normalised based on the argument that terms of trade is strongly inuenc

40、ed by oil price 译 文贸易及经济增长在日本和韩国的实证分析1简介 贸易条款及贸易波动条款对经济增长具有重要影响特别是在全世界的出口价格收敛或发散的全球一体化或解体时期包括诱导贸易的变化和整个经济的反应然而它们的影响是模糊地在贸易方面的增加可能导致增加或减少经济增长一般而言贸易方面的增加将导致投资的增加因此经济增长也将增加Mendoza Bleaney Greenaway 和Blattman等其他人的报告指出贸易条件对经济增长产生积极的影响Eicher等人开发一个跨时空模型来探讨贸易条件的下降对活期存款账户和输出地影响重点是发展中国家该模型表明贸易条件的下降将对收入和财富有负面影

41、响从长远来看贸易条件的下降将导致资本负债水平的比例减少资本产出和不变的借贷因此贸易条件的变化仅仅影响短期的经济增长而不是长期的经济增长波动性高的贸易条件将导致资源配置的输入和输出这是因为规避风险但最重要的是因为对冲市场的不完整性贸易条件和贸易波动方面对经济增长的影响的实证研究在跨国研究中占主导地位然而有意思的是检验贸易条件和贸易波动条件对特定的经济的影响本研究采用时间序列数据探讨了在日本和韩国的实际人均GDP对贸易条件的影响日本是一个大的封闭经济体而韩国式一个相对较小的开放型经济体此外日本在过去十年内实现的经济增长率较低而韩国已取得了相对较高的经济增长速度因此本文献提供了一些关于贸易条件对经济

42、增长的增加或降低是否具有重要意义的证据不同的经济体系认为贸易条件对经济增长的影响是不同的此外本研究探讨了贸易波动的条件对实际人均GDP的影响另外探讨石油价格和金融发展对实际人均GDP的影响日本和韩国都是石油进口国因此本研究提供了有关于石油价格对相对大的封闭经济和相对小的开放经济的经济增长的影响实证估计是基于扩展的一条生产函数Dickey Fuller Phillips 和 Perron用单位根统计量来检验数据的平稳性Johansen的协整方法被用来研究贸易条件和实际GDP之间的长期关系协整方法能够测试存在在日本和韩国多个系统的贸易条件和经济增长广义预测误差分解和广义冲响应函数用来检查系统中的变

43、量关系广义预测误差分解和广义冲响应函数解决了预测误差方差分解和脉冲响应函数的问题但问题在于后者的方法是对向量自归系统的变量顺序敏感的 本文介绍结构如下第二节回顾了讨论贸易条件和经济增长的文献第三节揭示了本研究的方法和数据第四节呈现实证的结果和讨论的结论第五节做总结2贸易条件和经济增长的文献综述 这里有很多研究贸易条件和经济增长之间关系的资料Mendoza使用了1971年到1991年之间的横截面数据来考察了贸易条件对40个工业发展中国家的经济增长的影响结果显示贸易条件对经济增长产生积极的影响此外贸易条件的冲击被报道几乎占实际GDP的一半的变化还有经济增长缓慢的国际贸易条件波动高Bleaney 和

44、 Greenaway使用了1980年到1995年之间的横截面数据来研究贸易条件对14个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家的经济增长的影响他们发现贸易条件的增加将导致经济增长的增加Hadass 和 Williamson使用了1870年到1940男之间的横截面数据来研究贸易条件和经济增长之间的关系他们发现尽管贸易条件的流动有利于初级产品的出口却减少了出口国的经济增长此外还有核心和外围之间不对称的经济增长的有力证据一般来说贸易条件对核心和外围的经济增长的影响非常的小在战前时期用贸易条件的变化来解释少于人均GDP的五分之一的增长速度的经济增长然而这项研究包含少数的仍然相当于二战时期贫困的发展中国家 在另一方面Blattman等人分析了1870年到1937年超过半世纪的35个国家的世界大战期间的数据他们发现贸易条件对经济增长产生了重大影响贸易条件对外围的影响大于对核心的影响一个贸易条件的下降所经历的边缘代表七十年之间的经济增长的主要拖放此外还有核心和外围之间