影响通货膨胀的因素分析

1、影响通货膨胀的因素分析对影响通货膨胀的因素分析摘要：随着国内商品价格上涨，CPI数据的攀升，通胀已经影响到人们的生活。 通过对CPI指数历年的水平和现状的研究，建立影响通货膨胀的经济模型，研究 各解释变量对通货膨胀的影响程度，从而为我国避免严重的通货膨胀以确保经 济的持续稳定发展提供理论依据。关键词：通货膨胀 多因素分析 模型 计量经济 检验 修正 一、问题的提出通货膨胀是指流通中的货币数量超过经济 运行所需的货币数量而引起的货币贬值和价格 水平全面、持续上涨的经济现象。衡量通货膨胀 的常用指标有消费者价格指数(CPI)、生产者价 格指数(PPI)和GDP折算数，其中最为常用的是 消费者价格指

2、数。所以，本文就影响 CPI的因素 来解释影响通货膨胀的因素。影响通货膨胀的因素有很多，但由于许多因 素之间相互重叠，同时为了反映影响通货膨胀的 主要因素，因此，综合考虑各方面的因素，我考 虑以下一些变量：i.固定资产投资总额(GDZCTZZE )。我国当 前需求的增长主要由政府主导的投资拉动的，主 要用于基础设施建设。我国固定资产膨胀主要又 表现为一般加工业投资增长过快，这就造成投资 结构向加工工业和非生产性建设倾斜，造成能 源、原材料的供应和交通运输极度紧张，增加物价上涨的压力2 .货币供应量（HBGYL ）。货币供应量过 多，会引起货币贬值，价格水平上涨。3 .国内生产总值（GDP）。G

3、DP增长对增加 对货币的需求，也会增加对货币的供给，所以会 给通胀埋下一些隐患。4 .外汇储备（WHCB ）。外债负担过重、外 贸逆差过大及国际市场价格与国内市场价格相 当悬殊可能引起通货膨胀。二、模型的选择和变量的设定我将CPI作为因变量，即被解释变量；将固定资产投资总额、货币供应量、 国内生产总值、外汇储备作为解释变量，对模型进行回归分析。（一）收集的数据如下：CPI GDZCTZZE（亿元）HBGYL （亿）GDP （亿）WHCB（亿美元）103.1451715293.418718.3111103.45594.519349.921826.2217.12106.48080.125402.2

4、26937.3194114.713072.334879.835260211.99124.117042.9446923.548108.5516.2117.120019.2660750.559810.5735.97108.322974.0376094.970142.51050.49102.82531890995.378060.81398.999.228406.17104498.583024.3145098.629854.71119897.988479.21546.75100.432917.73134610.398000.51655.74100.737213.49158310.9108068.221

5、21.6599.243499.91185007119095.72864.07101.255566.61221222.81351744032.51103.970477.4254107159586.76099.32101.888773.6298755.7184088.68188.72101.5109998.2345603.6213131.710663.44104.8137323.9403442.2259258.915282.49105.9172828.4475166.6302853.419460.3105.222484660622533535323992(二)建立数学模型及模型的检验建 立线性模型

6、：CPI= B 0+ B 1*GDZCTZZE+ B 2*HBGYL+ B 3*GDP+ B 4*WHCB对模型显著性的假设为：H0: B 1= B 2= B 3= p 4=0H1 : B 1, B 2, B 3, B 4不全为零1.模型显著性检验：用EVIEWS进行回归操作，结果如下：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:10Sample: 1990 2009Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb

7、.C102.97154.95018920.801520.0000GDZCTZZE0.0010610.0004622.2950790.0366HBGYL-0.0003180.000117-2.7167180.0159GDP0.0001640.0001421.1528000.2670WHCB-0.0040190.002706-1.4850750.1582R-squared0.476580Mean dependent var105.1150Adjusted R-squared0.337001S.D.dependent var6.552723S.E. of regression5.335538Akai

8、ke info criterion6.398975Sum squared resid427.0195Schwarz criterion6.647908Log likelihood-58.98975F-statistic3.414416Durbin-Watson stat0.693276Prob(F-statistic)0.035621Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL GDP WHCBEstimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*GDP + C(5)*WHC

9、BSubstituted Coefficients:CPI = 102.9714588 + 0.001061271087*GDZCTZZE - 0.000317535485*HBGYL +0.0001639031138*GDP - 0.004019161098*WHCB将上述Eviews输出的回归分析表中的P-Value值与给定的显著性水平a =0.05进行比较。C、固定资产投资总额、货币供应量的 P-Value值0.05，说明这三个解释变量对CPI的影响是显著的，而另外两个不显著 因此，我对估计量进行修正，结果如下：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least S

10、quaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:13Sample: 1990 2009Included observations: 20VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C103.61804.67236322.176780.0000GDZCTZZE0.0017180.0005792.9655030.0102HBGYL-0.0003960.000119-3.3244060.0050GDP2.64E-050.0001560.1692540.8680WHCB-0.0040680.002546-1.5977160.1324WHCBA2

11、-9.63E-085.61E-08-1.7166780.1081R-squared0.567600Mean dependent var105.1150Adjusted R-squared0.413171S.D.dependent var6.552723S.E. of regression5.019699Akaike info criterion6.307942Sum squared resid352.7633Schwarz criterion6.606662Log likelihood-57.07942F-statistic3.675480Durbin-Watson stat0.957758P

12、rob(F-statistic)0.024718Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL GDP WHCB WHCBA2Estimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*GDP + C(5)*WHCB + C(6)*WHCBA2Substituted Coefficients:CPI = 103.6179755 + 0.001718217201*GDZCTZZE - 0.0003955515982*HBGYL +2.638904124e-005*GDP - 0.004

13、068304053*WHCB - 9.630845615e-008*WHCBA2结果显示对被解释的影响还是不显著，继续修正：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:22Sample (adjusted): 1991 2009Included observations: 19 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficienStd. Errort-StatisticProb.tC101.56914.63787021.899950.0000GDZCTZZE0.0020470.000

14、4764.3013860.0009HBGYL-0.0003969.76E-05-4.0608600.0013GDP2.94E-050.0001180.2490860.8072WHCB-0.0116470.003195-3.6455450.0030D(WHCB)0.0122170.0032793.7258730.0025R-squared0.751092Mean dependent var105.2211Adjusted R-squared0.655359S.D. dependent var6.714626S.E. of regression3.941898Akaike info criteri

15、on5.833291Sum squared resid202.0013Schwarz criterion6.131535Log likelihood-49.41626F-statistic7.845647Durbin-Watson stat1.454710Prob(F-statistic)0.001336Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL GDP WHCB D(WHCB)Estimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*GDP + C(5)*WHCB + C(6

16、)*D(WHCB)Substituted Coefficients:CPI = 101.5691066 + 0.002047293013*GDZCTZZE - 0.0003963094008*HBGYL +2.935355508e-005*GDP - 0.01164733127*WHCB + 0.01221742232*D(WHCB)GDP对该结果显示：外汇储备与外汇储备的增量对CPI的影响是显著的，而CPI的影响是不显著的，因此考虑删除变量GDP,结果如下：Dependent Variable: CPIMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/10/10 Time: 17:

17、28Sample (adjusted): 1991 2009Included observations: 19 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C102.37493.21004931.892010.0000GDZCTZZE0.0020250.0004524.4824640.0005HBGYL-0.0003796.45E-05-5.8702850.0000WHCB-0.0115330.003054-3.7762710.0020D(WHCB)0.0124010.0030864.0179470.0013R-s

18、quared0.749905Mean dependent var105.2211Adjusted R-squared0.678449S.D. dependent var6.714626S.E. of regression3.807562Akaike info criterion5.732789Sum squared resid202.9653Schwarz criterion5.981326Log likelihood-49.46150F-statistic10.49466Durbin-Watson stat1.547921Prob(F-statistic)0.000382Estimation Command:LS CPI C GDZCTZZE HBGYL WHCB D(WHCB)Estimation Equation:CPI = C(1) + C(2)*GDZCTZZE + C(3)*HBGYL + C(4)*WHCB + C(5)*D(WHCB)Substituted Coefficie