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1、Penetration Curve(S-Curve)Concept ApplicationCase exampleAgendaCopyright© 1998 Bain & Company, Inc.MethodologyWhat is a Penetration Curve? (S-Curve) Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinet phases:-early adoption/trial-mass adoption-saturation/substitut

2、ion-decline The product life-cycle gen erates a series of market penetrati on rates that tend to follow a specific pattern, called an S-curve (or penetration curve) Given the pattern of penetration curves over time, and given that this relati on ship holds to some exte nt in almost every case, penet

3、ration curves can be a powerful tool in predicting the growth of new productsProduct Life-CycleProducts can be thought of as following alife-cycle that has several distinct phases luno>Early adoption/trialDriven by people who always adopt new things early and fuel the products initial growthMass

4、adoptionThe product becomes accepted by the general market;characterized by rapid product growthSaturation/substitutionThe product has either saturated the market, or is already being substituted for by another product that is in an earlier phase of the product life cycleDeclineThe decline of the pr

5、oduct, driven by complete substitution for or replacement with another productTimeCharacteristics of Penetration CurvesWhen considering penetration curves, there are a few characteristics to keep in mind: Penetration can occur at the expense of an existing product, or it can drive new markets to gro

6、w Several factors will influence the end state, or saturation point, of a product:-durati on /speed of product life-cycle-competitive forces- inno vation-culture/societyAgendaConceptApplication Case example MethodologyApplications of Penetration CurvesPenetration curves can be useful in addressing a

7、 series of different strategic questions which arise when new products enter a market.Validating/determining market growth for a new or established productShowing precedents for success of a product through existing penetration curves Predict!ng the saturation level for a product Determining market

8、entry strategy or timing, given the predicted penetration of a productDetermining product management or phase-out, given the speed of new products' adoptionAgendaConceptApplication Case example MethodologyDisguised Case Situation (1 of 2)A Bain case team used penetration curve analysis to examin

9、e how quickly medical practices changeSituation:*ln 1994, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) issued a statement confirmingthat most ulcers are strongly associated with the presenee of a bacteria (H. Pylori). While previously, doctors had been advised to treat ulcer symptoms with anti-secretory

10、drugs, NIH now recommends that ulcer patients with H. Pylori infections also be treated with antibiotics. The new treatment cures not only ulcer symptoms, but the underlying cause of the disease. In 1997, a new device was granted a patent by the U.S. Patent Office which will test human breath for th

11、e presence of H. Pylori-a blood test for H. Pylori is already on the market-doctors may also test for H. Pylori using tissue samples obtained throughendoscopy, a relatively invasive and painful medical procedureOur client is considering buying the pate nt and believes that the breath test technology

12、 holds significant advantages over both blood tests and endoscopy -less invasive than endoscopy -more accurate than blood testsKey How large is the market for H. Pylori tests over time?Questi on:Disguised Case Situation (2 of 2)Combining secondary research with surveys, the team obtained a few histo

13、ric penetration points, as well as the projected saturation pointResearch:A search of the existing literature revealed that in 1995, only 5% of doctors were testing patients suspected of having an ulcer for H. Pylori-in 1991, the figure was close to 1% In order to determine how quickly the NIH repor

14、t would impact doctors* behavior, our case team surveyed doctors in the fall of 1997:-60% said they were testing their suspected ulcer patients for H. Pylori -15% said they treated all suspected ulcer patients with a course of antibiotics without first testing for H. Pylori»the team agreed that

15、 this represented a "ceiling” on testing: 15% of doctors would always treat H. Pylori without testing for itPen etratio n Curve Data: Historic penetration:-1991 = 1%-1995 = 5%-1997 = 60%Saturation point = 85%H. Pylori Testing MarketPenetration curve analysis smoothed the known data points into

16、an S-curve that showed an aggressiveX = data point匸 0->d H0J 6uqs(d1 sjoiooq jo<D6plu<D0JQ>dAgendaConceptApplication Case example MethodologyMethodology (1 of 3)Gather historic data and set up spreadsheetYearsHistoric Penetration1989199025.0%29.0%199136.3%199242.5%Pick saturation point-t

17、his should be the logical ceiling on a products penetration (i.e. not every home will have a computer, even in the most optimistic of scenarios)-saturation point = 100% in this example Calculate penetration ratioPenetration Ratio-(historic percent) / (saturation point - historic percent)198925.0%0.3

18、33199029.0%0.408199136.3%0.571199242.5%0.740YearsHistoric PenetrationMethodology (2 of 3)Take the natural log of the years and the penetration ratioYearsHistoric PenetrationPenetration RatioIn (vears)ln(penetration ratio)198925.0%0.3337.595(1.099)199029.0%0.4087.596(0.895)199136.3%0.5717.597(0.561)1

19、99242.5%0.7407.597(0.301) Regress the log of years vs. the log of the penetration ratio Use results to calculate predicted penetration ratio-use formula for a line, and take anti-log - an tilog of (In (year) x x-coefficient +b )Infoenetration ratio)Predicted Penetrati on RatioYearsHistoric PenetrationPenetration Ratio lin(vears)198925.0%0.3337.595(1.099)199029.0%0.4087.596(0.895)199136.3%0.5717.596(0.5