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1、C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West Point Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348) Friday 6 October: Book Review due Tuesday 10 October:WPR Comprehensive Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc DC Trip Finalists see listSS474: Ter

2、rorism and CounterterrorismLesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointLesson 8 - The United States and al Qaeda, 1993-2001Book Review Due at Beginning of ClassAssigned Readings:Rohan Gunaratna, Al Qaedas Lose and Learn Doctrine: The Trajectory from Oplan

3、 Bojinka to 9/11, in Teaching Terror (pages 171-188). The Attack on the USS Cole (case study prepared by Dr. Ruth Beitler) (PDF) The 1993 Attack on the World Trade Center (case study by prepared Dr. David Baracksay) (PDF) 9/11 Timeline (WEB) Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror

4、 (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), 221-242. (PDF) Catch up on all readings in preparation of next weeks WPR Recommended Readings:Peter Bergen, The Bin Laden Trial: What Did We Learn? Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 24, No. 6 (November - December 2002), 429-434. (PDF)C COMBATING OM

5、BATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointMarine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983 241 Dead 105 Injured“We couldnt stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”- Ronald Reagan, An American LifeC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West P

6、ointNew York, World Trade CenterFebruary 26, 19936 Dead, 1,042 InjuredOklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building, 19 April 1995168 Dead, 490 InjuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointMatsumoto, JapanMarch, 19947 Dead, 34 InjuredSarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that

7、 a person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache. Ultimately t

8、he victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms.Tokyo, JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 199512 Dead, 5,000 InjuredAum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West

9、 PointKhobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996 19 Dead 240 InjuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointAmerican Embassy Bombings, Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians deadOver 5,000 injuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERROR

10、ISM C CENTERENTERat West Point1999 LAX Attack PlanC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointThe Strategy of Terrorism Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as: pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK open markets &am

11、p; cafes in Israel international airport, Sri Lanka bus in Manila, the Philippines shopping mall in southern Philippines nightclub in Bali, Indonesia banks in Istanbul, Turkey hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia nightclub in Berlin, Germany and, of course . . . C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CE

12、NTERENTERat West PointNew York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 20012,973 Dead, and 10,000+ InjuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointModern Trends in Global Terrorism More violent attacks (increasing lethality) Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate s

13、mart bomb)C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointKarachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 200212 Dead50 Injured14 Dead, including11 French engineersBus attackAttack on U.S. ConsulateC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointBali, IndonesiaOctober 1

14、2, 2002202 Dead350 InjuredCitizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointCasablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 200344 Dead107 InjuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointJakarta, I

15、ndonesiaAugust 5, 200312 Dead60 InjuredJ.W. Marriott Hotel, JakartaC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointRiyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003April 21, 20044 Dead148 Injured3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complexAttack on Security Services

16、Headquarters17 Dead122 InjuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointIstanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 200327 Dead400 InjuredPrimary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointMadrid, SpainMarc

17、h 11, 2004191 Dead1,035 InjuredC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointJakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 20049 Dead173 InjuredAustralian Embassy was primary targetC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointLondon, UKJuly 7, 200554 Dead716 InjuredC CO

18、MBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointWhy?Whats the history, strategy, etc. of the modern terrorism threat?C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointAQ Pre-9/11 What is al Qaedas strategy? What are their strategic objectives? 1996 fatwa declaration

19、 of war, warned of presence of American and British “Crusader forces” Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new imperialism on the region to obtain its oil “It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it” All ulem

20、a are “unanimous that it is an individual duty to fight an invading enemy”C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West Point 1998 Fatwa shift from the near enemy to the far enemy Bin Ladens critical contribution = re-directing energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U.S. anywher

21、e AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark, motivator, bring them under ideological umbrellaAQ Pre-9/11C COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointAQ Pre-9/11Appreciating the Strategic Story: Al Qaeda “proper desires large attack

22、s on US Al Qaeda is focused on US economy What about other groups & their objectives? US interests abroad remain vulnerable We are dealing with a strategic enemy Perceptions matter Long-view of the story is critical: “Connecting the dots” vs. “Knowing the storyC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ER

23、RORISM C CENTERENTERat West PointICE: AQ TimelineIn Groups of 4: Construct a timeline of key events leading up to 9/11 Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or events have some relation to the events of 9/11 Try to go as far back as 196820041968?1995AumShinrikyo(Tokyo)1986Pan Am(Tel Aviv)1994Air Fr

24、ance#89691996bin LadenFatwa1998bin LadenFatwa2000USS Cole1999 MillenniumPlotsLAX, Jordan1993WTCBombingLandmark Plot1st attack on U.S. soil?KSM is uncle of YousefImportantconceptualshift from “near enemy”to “far enemy”3/11Madrid20019/11Focused U.S. security policy towards non-state actors andWMD conc

25、ernsYousefKSMIslamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic ViewEmbassybombingsKhobar Towers1983BeirutEmbassy& MarineBarrackslessonslearned?1985Somaliapaper tiger?7/7LondonOplanBojinkaC COMBATING OMBATING T TERRORISM ERRORISM C CENTERENTERat West Point Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist Ab

26、ility to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents defenses Effective and clever use of deception and denial Suicide attacks employed to ensure operations success Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains available for activation/mobilization Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade Means and met