综观伊拉克时机

1、综观伊拉克时机AGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments AGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments Total area: 437,000 m2Limited arable landArable land: 11%Permanent crops: 1%Desert: 88%Largest governatesBaghdad (8.0m)Nineveh (2.1m)Basra (2.0m)Varying climat

2、e (Baghdad)Summer temp: 35-50Winter temp: 5-15Rainfall: 155mm/yearSource:Country Watch, CIA world fact bookCar transport39,000 km paved roads765,000 privately registered passenger cars266,000 privately registered trucksAirMajor airports in Baghdad, Basra and MosulThree major railway routesBaghdadKir

3、kukIrbilBaghdadMosulYurubiyahBaghdadMaagalUmm QasrTelecom3% penetration, no mobile networkUtilities 250 water treatment facilitiesPower generation capacity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MWGeography and climateInfrastructureThe majority of Iraq is characterized by desertOVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPH

4、Y Source:World outlook, EIU country risk report Iraq50% of population younger than 16 years28% of population is labor forceApproximately 51% males75% of population resides in urban areasThere is an estimated 1m2m Iraqis living in exileFertility rate 4.55 children per womenAdult literacy at 54%1.5-2.

5、5 million foreign workersKey facts13.215.624.2198019851990199520002002DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002Iraqi population amounts to more than 24 millionsMillionSource:CIA world fact book100% = 24.2mOthersArabs- Shia MuslimsKurds Sunni Muslims46212Arabs Sunni Muslims22ESTIMATEPOPUL

6、ATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUPShia Muslims form Iraqs ethnic majority%* From 6 to 23 years Source: EIU country profile Iraq 2002675019801998EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 1980 VS. 1998An increasing number of children does not receive formal educationESTIMATESource:Country Watch100110210Proven

7、 reservesUnproven potentialTotalGas Trillion m3, 2001OilBillion barrels, 2001OVERVIEW OF IRAQS NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVESIraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reservesESTIMATESource:BP Statistical review, 20021. Saudi Arabia2. Iraq3. UAE4. Kuwait5. IranOil, proved reservesBillio

8、n barrels, 2001Gas, proved reserves Trillion m3, 20012629897901104823146631. Russia2. Iran3. Qatar4. Saudi Arabia5. UAE10. IraqRANKING OF BIGGEST NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES WORDWIDE which are the second largest in oil and the tenth largest in gasESTIMATE* Purchasing power parity method, current pr

9、icesSource:CIA World fact book; Country Watch; EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* - 1980 TO 2002Over the past decade, Iraqs real GDP fell by 50%USD billionESTIMATE* Purchasing power parity method, current pricesSource:CIA World Factbook; Country Watc

10、h20021980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP* PER CAPITA - 1980 TO 2002 and purchasing power parity on individual level even furtherUSD thousandsSource:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 20037282588111912614412418279653934494942343330322211141414131315162025197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198

11、2198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000486376878795109115123136146149133 133130124131 130139 140155167172 171 172 173175179182 1801881970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000COMPARISO

12、N OF GDP DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000Iraq has suffered a significant reduction in GDP over last 25 yearsin billion USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000Source:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003886811111310156532333222211111111111197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219

13、8319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000810111313131414151516151312111010101010101111101010101010991970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000COMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPMENT IRAQ V

14、S. SAUDI ARABIA - 1970 TO 2000In the late 70ties Iraqs GDP per capita was at par with Saudi Arabiain 000 USD in prices and exchange rates of 2000* Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 millionSource:EIU country profile Iraq1,1841,7301,2708,7301,150 JordanIranIraqSaudi ArabiaSyria*ES

15、TIMATECOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA - 2002Iraqs current GDP per capita is comparable to Syria and IranUSD thousands Source:Economist intelligence unit 2002; OANDA.COMIraqi inflation rates%706070809010020019961997199819992000Exchange ratesIraqi Dinar per USD (black market rate) 26011941200 12201930279

16、02860Huge budget deficits lead to “printing of moneyBUT: Official exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 1983200120021996199719981999200020012002ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES 1996 TO 2002Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currencySour

17、ce: EIU country dataExternal debt$bnIraqSyria JordanIran% of GPD60-130Main causes of uncertainty areAccrued interest“Assistance funds in Iran-Iraq warClaims following Gulf war 1991ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES - 2001Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankru

18、pt* Estimates range from $103.4 $129.4bn Source:Reuters; Institute for international Economics 25181310Saudi ArabiaGulf States excl. KuwaitKuwaitParis Club excl Russia, France8Russia8France2USA3Commercial Bank Creditors2Bulgaria2Poland, Czech, Romania1Multilateral Institutions1Yugoslavia2Trade Claim

19、s24OthersTotal external debt119*14-25Kuwait reparation payments 133 144Total claims Iraq regarded the loans from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as grant payments for its 1980 war against Iran CommentsCreditorAmount principal and overdue interestESTIMATEBREAKDOWN OF IRAQI LIABILITIES 2001Iraqs liabilities a

20、re mainly loans from the Gulf states granted to Iraq in the 80ties during the war with Iran(USD bn)The IMF and World Bank are owed less than $200mSource:EIU Country profile Iraq 2002FranceAustraliaChinaJordanTop 5 import sourcesTop 5 export destinations483359215155650U.S.FranceJordanItalySpain804620

21、5523485,725ItalyMAJOR IRAQI TRADING PARTNERS - 2001France is most important supplier, the US most important customer of Iraqi productsUSD millionAGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRecent developments Source:McKinsey“Good standard”Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows mode

22、stly at a CAGR of 3-5% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 9-11%) “Best in Class”Assumes the non-oil part of the the Iraqi economy grows strongly at a CAGR of 7-9% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 11-13%) “Distinctive”Assumes the non-oil sectors of the Iraqi econ

23、omy grows aggressively at a CAGR 12-15% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 13-15%) ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONTHREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIraqs In the World Class scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2021Non-oilSectors Oil production level 2008Oil production level 20134

24、-5 million barrels per day6-7 million barrels per dayOilSector *) Population in 2003= 24 million, 2021=29 million, 2021=33 millionSource:McKinseyGDP development 2003- 2021(in bn USD)GDP per capita* 2003-2021(in 000 USD)ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONTHREE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIn the distinctive sce

25、nario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2021“Good Standard”1.8-2.22.2-2.62003201320081.253-6373-862003201320083014%6%11%3%“Best in class”2.0-2.32.5-2.92003201320081.257-6783-982003201320083016%8%12%5%“Distinctive”2.2-2.63.1-3.82003201320081.263-75102-1262003201320083018%11%15%8%COMPARISO

26、N OF IRAQ WITH SAUDI ARABIASource:Global Insight WMM 2.Q. 2003GDP per capita comparison000 USDGDP comparisonbn USD651452015530225516110110IraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudi19801990200319801990200370-90300-32080-100300-320100-130300-3203.1-4.99-112.5-2.99-112.2-2.69-11IraqSaudiIra

27、qSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiGDP (bn USD)GDP per capita (000 USD)GDP (bn USD)GDP per capita (000 USD)GDP (bn USD)GDP per capita (000 USD)20132013ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONAGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments * Assuming a capital productivity of 0.2Source:McKins

28、ey analysisGDP 2003 (bn USD)30200-300Investment required*(bn USD)GDP 2013 (bn USD)70-90Investment required*(bn USD)250-350GDP 2013 (bn USD)80-100Investment required* (bn USD)350-500GDP 2013 bn USD100-130ESTIMATE OF REQUIRED INVESTMENTS INTO IRAQ OVER THE NEXT DECADETo achieve the World Class scenari

29、o Iraqs economy requires USD 250-350 billion in investments, most of which will have to be FDI, over the next decadeESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONSource:Global Insight; McKinsey analysisOil and gasConstructionCommunity, social and personal servicesAgricultureRetail/WholesaleCommunication incl. telecomManufa

30、cturingTransportationFinancial services incl. Real estateOther (incl. Utilities) Sector size - 2021Share of GDP in % in 202160107554332134-4264332-321-211100ESTIMATED POTENTIAL SECTOR SIZEBy 2021, Iraqs economy is likely to continue to be dominated by the Oil/gas sectorESTIMATEbn USD57-67TotalScenar

31、io 2: GDP growth rate at 11-13%Source: Global Insight, McKinsey analysis Source:PFC Economy6.56.05.04.02001200220032004200520062007202120212021ESTIMATEESTIMATED IRAQI OIL PRODUCTIONIncreasing Iraqs oil capacity will require significant investmentsm barrel per daySource:McKinseyRees

32、tablishing and increasing oil production capacity to 6-7 million barrels per day by 2010Re-construction of basic infrastructure such as transport facilities, telecommunications and utilities (power capacity currently at 1.800MW compared to 9.500MW pre 1990)Rebuilding and upgrading of primary, second

33、ary and tertiary educational institutionsReestablishing pre 1980 health care facilities and standards ESTIMATERebuilding 40,000 km of paved roads, 3 main railway lines, 3 main airports, 2 portsRebuilding Iraqs basic hard infrastructure will be challenging and will require substantial investments ove

34、r the next decadeESTIMATED INVESTMENT RQUIREMENTS Rebuilding Iraqs industrial base (petrochemical, building materials, mining, consumer goods, etc.)Source: McKinsey, United States Department of Defense, USAID Web siteUSAID CONTRACTS/GRANTS Awarded contracts and grantsPersonnel Support (Awarded to In

35、ternational Resources Group, 7/2/03)Seaport Administration (Awarded to Stevedoring Services of America, 24/3/03)Primary and Secondary Education (Awarded to Creative Associates, 11/4/03)Local Governance (Awarded to Research Triangle Institute, 11/4/03)Capital Construction (Awarded to Bechtel, 17/4/03

36、)Theater Logistical Support (Inter-agency agreement awarded to the Air Force Contract Augmentation Program (AFCAP) on 17/2/03)Airport Administration (awarded to SkyLink Air and Logistics support on 5/5/2003) Public Health (Awarded to Abt Associates, 30/4/03)Back to School Campaign (Awarded to UNICEF

37、, 8/4/03)Health Water and Sanitation Services (Awarded to UNICEF on 28/3/03)Health Strengthening Systems (Awarded to WHO, 28/3/03)Community Action Program (Awarded to number of relief organizations incl. Mercy Corps, IRD, Save the Children Federation, 27/05/2003) NOT COMPREHENSIVEUASAID has awarded

38、an number of contracts and there are about USD 6.7 billion in funds available to rebuild IraqSource:McKinsey3.Create an enabling and open economic environment Address key economic governance issues such as taxation, land ownership, company laws, industry de-/regulation and investor protection Implem

39、enting the right long-term economic governance model will be essential for attracting the foreign investment necessary to rebuild IraqFOR DISCUSSION KEY REQUIREMENTS TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS1.Build a constitutional state Implement the key building blocks for an constitutional state with an independent judicial system 2.Establish an accountable civil serviceBuild the foun