六普中国分年龄性别人数2010年

1、从六普人口金字塔估计的 2010中国分年龄性别人数China' s 20PGbpulation by Sex and Age Recovered from the Census Population Pyramid蔡泳 Yong CaiDepartment of Sociology, UNC-Chapel HCreated on Oct 18, 2011, Updated on Jan 5, 2012迄今为止，国家统计局只公布了六普人口年龄 性别结构的几个大数。2011年7月出版的2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据第13页提供了“历次普查人口金字塔”

2、，其中包 括根据六普数据绘制的单岁人口金字塔（见下 图1）。利用绘图软件我们可以通过测量各年 龄在金字塔中的相对长度来测算分性别年龄的 人口数。China has yet to release detailed age structure data from the 2010 census. In its publication titled “ Major Figures on 2010 Population Census of China ” the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides a population pyramid f

3、rom the 2010 census (See Figure 1 below). By measuri ng corresp onding bar len gth in the graph, we can“ recover ” population' s sex age structure withreas on able Page 1 of 6Page # of 62010t年龄僭）2.2 2.0 1.6 L2 O.K 0.4 0.0 0,0 0,40层 i.2 Lb 2.0 22男 Male女 Female

4、Page # of 6Page # of 6图1.中国2010普查人口金字塔1Figure 1. Population Pyramid from Chin' 2010 Census2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据第 13页“历次普查人口金字塔”国务院第六次全国人口普查办 公室/国家统计局人口和就业统计司编。中国统计岀版社， 2011年7月。(Page 13 in pyramids fromPopulati on Cen suses "in Major Figures on 2010 Populati on Cen s

5、us of China , edited by the Office of the 6Nati onalPopulation Census under the State Council and Population and the Labor Statistics Division of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Press, July 2007.)Page # of 621. 该人口金字塔应该是用Excel软件绘制。左为男，右为女，但左右不同高，而且左 右标尺比例有

6、微差（见下图2）。经测算男182个像素点代表0.4%，女189个像 素点代表0.4%。2. 测量估算步骤（表1）：a. 分别量算各性别年龄条的长度（像素 点数，表1第2列）b. 根据男女不同比例尺对像素点数做微调，推算各性别年龄的比例（表 1第 3列）。c. 把各性别年龄比例加总，总数应该等于 100（%）,实际为 100.85（%）。（表 1 第3列）d. 根据加总的比例，重新加权，使总和 等于100%。（表1第4列）e. 把普查所得全国总人口分配到各性别 年龄。（表1第5列）3. 测算误差（具体见下表 2）最大的问题是而中青年少了200来万，老年人多了 160多万。原因在于，该金 字塔用E

7、xcel的条状图制作并加上了边框。 在条本身较短的情况下（比方说老人）， Excel的条和边很难精确区分。但测量误 差占总人口的比例很小，在国家统计局公 布具体数据以前，本估计可供参考。1. The pyramid is likely created using Excel. There is a small but no ticeable differe nee in scale betwee n male and female (Figure 2). It is estimated that, 182 pixels stand for 0.4% for males, and 189 pix

8、els for females.2. Steps take n in measuri ng (Table 1):a. Measure bar length (number of pixels, Table 1, Colum n 2).b. Estimate each sex-age' proportion of total population according to its pixel size and scale (Table 1, Colu mn 3).c. Add up estimated proporti on. The total should be 100(%). Th

9、e actual value is 100.85(%). (Table 1, Colum n 3)d. Reweight estimated proporti on to make them add up to 100(%). (Table 1, Colum n 4)e. Distribute census population total to each sex-age group. (Table 1, Column 5)3. Measureme nt Errors (Table 2).A comparison of population figures based on this “ re

10、covered sex age structure with the released census figures provides an assessme nt of accuracy. As show n in Table 2, the measurement errors are relatively small. The “ recovered sex age structure has about 2 milli on fewer in the age group of 15-59, but about 1.6 million more of 60+/65+, compared w

11、ith the released figures. The discrepa ncies are largely due to difficulties in differentiating border from bar in population pyramid. Nevertheless, this “ recoveredex-age structure is useful for demographic an alysis before NBS releases the official nu mbers.0F0 to 80男 Male立 Feimale几点说明:Notes on Me

12、asurement:Page # of 62Page # of 62o 0.0 0.40.8 h2 L6 2.0 2,2图2.图1中男女比例尺的细微差异Figure 2. Small Difference between Male and Female in their Scales in Figure 1表1.根据六普人口金字塔估计的分年龄性别人数Table 1. Population by Sex and Age Estimated from Population Pyramid年龄Age像素点数Pixels(3)比例Proporti

13、on(4)调整后比例Adjusted Prop.(5)人口数Population女 Female总 Total男M女F男M女F男M女F男 Male02572270.5650.4800.5600.476750328163819521388523212952530.6480.5350.6430.531861271571129241572563922912530.6400.5350.6340.531849593271129241560885632832500.6220.5290.6170.525826236770285811529094842832490.6220.5270.6170.5238262

14、36770004671526283452762420.6070.5120.6010.508805799868036661486166462762420.6070.5120.6010.508805799868036661486166472522200.5540.4660.5490.462735730261851511354245482572230.5650.4720.5600.468750328162694941377277592662350.5850.4970.5800.4937766041660686614372907102712380.5960.5040.5910.499791202066

15、9120914603229112692290.5910.4850.5860.4817853628643818014291808122852540.6260.5380.6210.5338320759714103815461797132812540.6180.5380.6120.5338203976714103815345014142922640.6420.5590.6360.5548525128742218215947310153283030.7210.6410.7150.6369576171851864018094811163353190.7360.6750.7300.669978054189

16、6846918749010173713560.8150.7530.8080.747108315841000869920840283183693560.8110.7530.8040.747107731931000869920781892193833730.8420.7890.8350.783111819321048664321668575204904901.0771.0371.0681.028143058661377601928081884214584691.0070.9930.9980.984133716051318561826557223224234340.9300.9190.9220.91

17、1123497571220161724551374234434560.9740.9650.9650.957129336701282013225753802243874060.8510.8590.8430.852112987141141441622713130253443560.7560.7530.7500.747100433021000869920052001263413500.7490.7410.7430.7349955715984001319795728273383440.7430.7280.7370.7229868128967132719539455283883950.8530.8360

18、.8460.829113279101110515822433068293423440.7520.7280.7450.7229984910967132719656238303313330.7270.7050.7210.6999663758936207019025828313503470.7690.7340.7630.72810218475975567019974146323423410.7520.7220.7450.7169984910958698419571895333203160.7030.6690.6970.6639342606888412618226732343643610.8000.7

19、640.7930.758106272141014927120776485353713700.8150.7830.8080.776108315841040230021233884364024010.8840.8490.8760.842117366491127384423010493如需要Excel版数据，请和作者联系Excel version of the table is available upon request.374244180.9320.8850.9240.877123789531175178724130741384374310.9600.9120.9520.904127584961

20、211727424875770394464370.9800.9250.9720.917130212571228596025307217404814771.0571.0101.0481.001140431051341053327453637414384370.9630.9250.9550.917127876921228596025073652424754711.0440.9971.0350.988138679311324184727109778433733750.8200.7940.8130.787108899751054287121432847444214200.9250.8890.9170.

21、881122913661180801624099382454214170.9250.8830.9170.875122913661172367324015039464104100.9010.8680.8930.860119702141152687323497087474764681.0460.9901.0370.982138971271315750427054630483533500.7760.7410.7690.73410306062984001320146076491952000.4290.4230.4250.4205693151562286511316015502492460.5470.5

22、210.5430.5167269715691612414185839512302230.5050.4720.5010.4686714998626949412984492522952870.6480.6070.6430.6028612715806881116681526533253180.7140.6730.7080.6679488584894035518428939542952980.6480.6310.6430.6258612715837806916990784553093070.6790.6500.6730.6449021454863109717652551563093100.6790.6

23、560.6730.6519021454871544017736894572792870.6130.6070.6080.6028145585806881116214396582802870.6150.6070.6100.6028174780806881116243591592392450.5250.5190.5210.5146977759688800913865768602392400.5250.5080.5210.5046977759674743813725197612302260.5050.4780.5010.4746714998635383713068835621961980.4310.4

24、190.4270.4165722346556663611288982631891900.4150.4020.4120.3995517977534172210859698641721760.3780.3720.3750.369502165149481219969772651591610.3490.3410.3460.338464210745264069168514661511520.3320.3220.3290.319440854242733778681920671361410.2990.2980.2960.296397060839641207934727681341360.2950.2880.

25、2920.285391221638235487735764691341360.2950.2880.2920.285391221638235487735764701291320.2840.2790.2810.277376623837110917477329711081130.2370.2390.2350.237315313031769196330048721181240.2590.2620.2570.260344508634861766931262731111150.2440.2430.2420.241324071632331476473864741021130.2240.2390.2220.2

26、3729779563176919615487475941070.2070.2260.2050.2252744391300823357526237685990.1870.2100.1850.2082481630278331852649487785970.1870.2050.1850.2042481630272708952087197869830.1520.1760.1500.1742014499233348943479887961720.1340.1520.1330.1511780934202423138051668061730.1340.1540.1330.153178093420523463

27、8332808144570.0970.1210.0960.120128460816025162887125Page 3 of 68241570.0900.1210.0890.1201197021160251627995388332450.0700.0950.0700.094934261126514521994058427400.0590.0850.0590.084788282112457319128558523370.0510.0780.0500.078671500104023017117308620280.0440.0590.0440.05958391378720113711148715230.0330.0490.0330.04843793564662910845648811200.0240.0420.0240.042321152562286883439899180.0200.0380.0200.038262761506058768819905140.0110.0300.0110.02914597839360153957991590.0110.0190.0110.01914597825302939900792460.0090.0130.0090.01311678316868628546993360.0070.0130.0070.013