汇丰银行新兴市场外汇策略路线图希望永存

1、26 June 2019Emerging Markets FXCurrenciesEmerging MarketsHope springs eternalEM FX is recovering as hopes rise that a positive outcome on US-China trade can soon materialiseThe Feds dovish stance is also helping for now . but without growth conditions improving, the rally by EM currencies should pro

2、ve less durableuPaul MackelHead of Emerging Markets FX Researchation Limitedpaulmackel.hkuJu WangSenior FX Strategistuation Limitedjuwang.hkJoey ChewSenior Asia FX StrategistEM currencies have been swung back and forth over the past year or so by the markets flip-flopping answers to the same two que

3、stions: Will the US and China reach a trade deal? Will central banks achieve a soft landing in global growth and risky assets? These questions are particularly relevant now, as we approach the Trump-Ximeeting at G20 in late June, and the Feds meetings in Q3.Theand Shanghai Banking Corporation Limite

4、djoey.s.chew.hkMadan Reddy Asia FX Strategistation Limitedmadan.reddy.hkWe acknowledge the likelihood of the recent EM FX rally extending in the near term, ifUS-China tradks resume post-G20 and the Fed cuts rates in Q3. But our longer-Murat Toprak CEEMEA FX Strategist HSBC Bank plcmurat.toprak+44 20

5、 7991 5415Dominic Bunning Senior FX Strategist HSBC Bank plcdominic.bunning+44 20 7992 2113Daragh MaherHead of FX Strategy, US HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. daragh.maherterm view is that such a rally should not be durable, unless accompanied by signs of improving EM growth. Soft landings are rare histo

6、rically just as global growth and equity markets failed to be revived by the Feds first few rate cuts in 2001 and 2007, untilwell into their respective easing cycles, that could very well be the case again.In Asia, we believe the HKMA has the ability to maintain the HKDs Linked Exchange Rate System.

7、 We expect USD-HKD to fluctuate around 7.80 levels now that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. We recently lowered our year-end forecasts for USD-THB and USD-IDR to 31.8 (from 33.8) and 14600 (from 15000), respectively. We also dig deeper into the latest US Treasurys semi-annual report on macr

8、oeconomic and FX policies of major trading partners. Elsewhere, we also lowered our USD-LKRforecast to 189 (from 196) to factor in the unexpected resilience in 1Q 2019.Clyde WardleSenior EM FX Strategist HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. clyde.wardleIn CEEMEA, the RUB is supported by robust macro fundament

9、als and a prudent monetary policy. But the political risk premium has been excessively compressed the market looks complacent, in our view. The TRY could temporarily benefit with real rates rising to unprecedented highs, an improving current account, and less acutedebt repayments.David Duong, CFASen

10、ior FX Strategist, LatAm HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. david.p.duongIn LatAm, we assess the positioning in LatAm FX markets and our measures point to the market being long USD versus the BRL, CLP and PEN. The ARS has found better support as local risks appear less pronounced. But the ARS remains vulner

11、able toa deterioration of the external environment, affecting appetite for EM assets.Click hereIssuer of report: The Banking Corporation Limitedand ShanghaiDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with th

12、e Disclaimer, which forms part of it.View HSBC Global Research at:获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群。Currencies Emerging Markets26 June 2019Regional viewsAsiaAsian low-yielding currencies, led by the KRW and THB, have performed well against the USD over the

13、past month. Rising market expectations that the Fed will cut rates have triggered an unwinding of long USD positions. However, the near-term outlook will also depend greatly onthe coming G20 leaders meeting.Low-yielders benefited more than the high yielders on the prospects for Fed rate cutsOur base

14、 case is that, if there is no further escalation in tariffs, USD-RMB will stay below7.00 and the RMB can even strengthen modestly in the near term. But the opposite is also true should trade relations continue to deteriorate the PBoC has made it clear that there is no line in the sand for the curren

15、cy. We believe this is particularly true as Chinas FX flows have been relatively stable, which has increased the room for flexible FX policy. Despite the threat of tariffs,the RMB is also supported by long-term index-related portfolio allocation into China this year.If there is no further escalation

16、 in tariffs, USD- RMB should stay below 7.00Since 5 June, we have recommended to be short SGD-KRW. After the KRWs pronounced weakness during May, FX policy then appeared to stabilise the currency, and lately there have been strong foreign bond inflows. In contrast, the SGD NEER has been trading near

17、ly 1.7% above the mid, which underestimates the potential risk of MAS easing later this year, in our view. The TWD could also lag the KRW in the near term, as local exporters have advocated a weaker TWD to catch up with the KRW. The THBs strength should be limited the current THBREER is becoming ext

18、reme (Asian FX Focus: THB: No “bahts” about it, 17 June).We prefer a short SGD-KRW stanceThe performance of high-yielding currencies has also diverged the IDR and PHP have fared better than the INR. Expectations of divergent monetary policies are a key factor BI and the BSP have shown some caution i

19、n terms of monetary easing lately while the RBI continues with its clear easing bias. FX policy also matters BI continues to favour a rather stable exchange rate while RBI, in our view, will likely be tolerant of INR weakness arising from its easing bias. We also lowered our USD-IDR forecast to refl

20、ect a better local backdrop for theIDR (Asian FX Focus: IDR: More resilient than expected, 19 June).The IDR and the PHP outperformed the INRCEEMEAWe believe that, in the short-term, idiosyncratic factors should play a greater role in theperformances of high-yielding currencies in the CEEMEA region.T

21、he TRYs medium-term outlook remains clouded by adverse macro and financial dynamics, and our year-end USD-TRY forecast of 6.50 is unchanged. However, we believe that the TRY could perform well in the near term. Falling inflation, an improving current account balance and decreasing foreign loan repay

22、ments could provide short-term relief to the currency in Q3.We believe that temporarily USD-TRY could make a move down to 5.50.USD-TRY could temporarily move down to 5.50Meanwhile, our bearish view on the ZAR has been reinforced as recent economic data have demonstrated the scale of the macro challe

23、nges faced by the currency. In Q1, theeconomy contracted by 3.2% q-o-q (annualised) with a negative contribution by almost allWe are still bearish on the ZAR2Currencies Emerging Markets26 June 2019sectors. Leading indicators are also not pointing to any clear signs of a recovery. This economic stand

24、still should worsen the structural drivers of the currency, in our view. The questions surrounding the rapid rise in debt levels and the limited ammunition to deal with the debt of state-owned enterprises are likely to be topical for the ZAR in coming months. This is all themore likely since the ZAR

25、 is also facing a sizeable current account deficit.The RUB is benefiting from strong macro fundamentals. However, we are cautious in light of its recent rally. The currency is no longer undervalued as it was at the start of the year. There is a compression of the political premium related to the US

26、sanctions risk, in our view.We believe the market has become complacent about these risks.In CEE, we continue to favour the PLN. Since the announcement of a large fiscal package in April, we have turned PLN-positive based on the view the rising output gap is likely to lead to higher inflation and a

27、hawkish shift from the NBP. Admittedly, the central bank has remained dovish. However, it now faces two choices. Either it changes its narrative like the NBH did at the start of the year and EUR-PLN moves lower, like EUR-HUF did in Q1. Or the NBP repeats that it will not hike its policy rate until 2

28、022 and in that case EUR-PLN could actually move higher. In other words, the balance of inflation and the policy outlook may soon be reaching a tippingpoint, and we may see EUR-PLN moving significantly in coming months.We prefer the PLN to the HUF and the CZKLatAmThe Feds dovish tone in the latest F

29、OMC meeting supported a risk on sentiment in LatAm FXmarkets, though surprisingly, high-yielding currencies like MXN, BRL and ARS were not the primary beneficiaries. We believe this reflects the idiosyncratic natures of these currencies.For example, Brazil is a fairly closed economy and the focus re

30、mains on pension reform, where the Lower House Special Committee presented a revised form of the bill saving BRL913bn over 10 years, close to the governments original proposal. Additional dilution is possible during the plenary vote, but if the final savings figure is above BRL700bn, then we think t

31、he market is likely to be satisfied. That said, Brazil has a growth problem that needs to be overcome beforewe can get substantively more bullish on the currency.Cyclical headwinds hinder us from turning bullish BRLIn Argentina, the prospect of inflation coming lower after surprising to the downside

32、 in the last two prints, plus the idea that growth has bottomed in 1H19 may portend a virtuous cycle as we enter 2H19. Positive macroeconomic developments tend to support the incumbent, but there is still plenty of uncertainty as we head into the first round on 27 October.Importantly, we believe the

33、re is a low incentive for the opposition to deviate from the current economic policy path should they win. We believe this reduces the risks of a deviation to lessmarket-friendly economic policies.For ARS, elections are under way, focus will soon shift to economic policiesIn Mexico, MXN performance

34、continues to be anchored by its yield. But the recent threat of tariffs by the US administration on Mexican imports has added to scrutiny over the MXNs fundamentals. After the Fitch ratings downgrade to Pemex to junk, there is also a concern ofpassive outflows if the company receives another downgra

35、de to sub-investment grade.The MXNs weak fundamentals outweigh its attractive yieldMeanwhile, Chile, Colombia and Peru are the most exposed countries in the region to developments in trade tensions and further global growth slowdown, as demand for commodities could be constrained. This was reflected

36、 in Chiles decision to surprise the market with a 50bp rate cut in June. In terms of fiscal stimulus, Chile and Peru have more flexibility butColombia is somewhat limited. Thus the G20 talks have added significance for these currencies.The CLP, COP and PEN are most exposed to trade tension given the

37、ir sensitivity to commodity prices3Currencies Emerging Markets26 June 2019ContentsRegional views2EM FX: Hope this helps5EM FX Trade Ideas11Asia at a glanceHKD: Defence against the dark arts THB: No “bahts” about itIDR: More resilient than expectedAsian FX Focus: US Treasury digging deeper LKR: The c

38、orridor of uncertainty131429374348CEEMEA at a glanceRUB: Illusion of grandeurTRY: Rays of sunshine before winter returns555661LatAm at a glanceMarket cautious on LatAm656669Argentina FX:at 50EM foreign portfolio flows tracker74HSBtle Mac Valuation Ranges80Key global economic and FX assumptions90Curr

39、ency reference table92Disclosure appendix93Disclaimer954Currencies Emerging Markets26 June 2019EM FX: Hope this helpsEM FX is recovering as hopes rise that a positive outcome on US- China trade can soon materialiseThe Feds dovish stance is also helping for now . but without growth conditions improvi

40、ng, the rally by EM currencies should prove less durableuuuIn last months edition of the EM FX, amid renewed US-China trade tensions, wePaul MackelHead of Emerging Markets FX Researchmade a comparison to the weak performance of EM FX in the middle of 2018, when the USannounced the first round of tar

41、iffs ongoods. However, EM currencies haveTheand ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited paulmackel.hkrebounded like they did at the start of the year over the past month, (Charts 1-2).The Feds “put” the markets expectations of several rate cuts by the Fed in H2, which were later validated by many FOMC m

42、embers came to the rescue again. The ECB, in its policy statement and a subsequent speech by Governor Draghi, also opened the door to further rate cuts and more QE if necessary. Moreover, hopes for a de-escalation of US-China trade tensions have risen after both sides confirmed on 19 June that the t

43、wo leaders would meetat the G20 summit on 28-29 June.Ju WangSenior FX StrategistTheand ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited juwang.hkJoey ChewSenior Asia FX StrategistTheand ShanghaiIf US-China tradks resume post-G20, the US does not make concrete plans to imposeBanking Corporation Limited joey.s.che

44、w.hkadditional tariffs, and the Fed cuts rates in Q3, the EM FX rally could extend. But for howlong? Recall that after a strong performance in January, EM FX as a whole started rolling overMadan Reddy Asia FX Strategistin February, even before US-China tradks broke down in early May. As headwinds to

45、growth gather be it from trade tensions or because of the maturation of business cycles, or due to other idiosyncratic factors the market would periodically doubt central banks ability to achieve a soft landing. Our view is that the Feds easing is an important, but insufficient condition for a durab

46、le EM FX recovery. So long as a US-China trade deal has not been signed and the EM growth impulse continues to weaken, we believe EM FX cannot beconsidered out of the woods yet.Theand ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited madan.reddy.hkMohd Tariq Azim Associate Bangalore1. EM currencies are rallying l

47、ike they did at the start of the year2. Most EM currencies gained over the last month Index, 1/1/2018=10098969492908886848215%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%EM FX spot performanJA S O NH2 2018Surplus EM FXDJF M A MH1 2019Deficit EM FXYTDSincNote: Data as of 24 June 2019 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC*Our last EM FXwas

48、published on 22 MaySource: Bloomberg, HSBC5RUB THB MXN PHP PEN CLP IDR COPCurrencies Emerging Markets26 June 20193. Rate cut expectations for the Fed intensified since late May4. US data has been disappointing, but not more so than Eurozone data1201101009080706050400.750.500.250.00-0 25-0 50-0.75per

49、cent pointData better than expectedData worse than expectedJan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19US economic surprise index Eurozone economic surprise index EM economic surprise indexJ A S O N D JF H2 2018Expected fed hikes/cuts in 2019M A MH1 2019Jin 2020Source: Bloomberg, HSBCSource: HSBCFed ea

50、sing cycles: Soft landings in growth and risk assets are rareIn late May, EM currencies started recovering from the risk aversion caused by renewed US- China trade tensions. That was also when the rates market started pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed before year-end (up from one before), with the

51、 first cut seen as soon as the 31 July meeting (Chart 3). Such expectations undermined the USD. They were triggered by a series of poor US data further declines in the manufacturing PMIs for the month of May, a large downward revision to core PCE inflation in Q1, a plunge in job creation for the mon

52、th of May as well as the US President Trumps threat to impose tariffs on Mexico (which was interpretedby the market as being damaging to US economic interests).The dovishness of the FOMC in the 18-19 June meeting evident from the change in the“dot” plot (seven members out of 17 now anticipate a 50bp

53、 reduction in the fed funds rate by year-end and one projects a 25bp reduction, whereas no one projected rate cuts in March) andin the statement (from being “patient” to “will aappropriate”) validated those expectationsand prompted the market to further price in a possibility of a third rate cut thi

54、s year. As a result,the USD weakened sharply against nearly all currencies after the June FOMC meeting.HSBC FX research believes that the USDs recent weakness should be temporary. The Feds willingness to ease is shared by most central banks in the world. And since the Fed has the most room to cut ra

55、tes among central banks in advanced economies, this implies that there is comparatively less urgency for negative rates and QE policies in the US, and hence, less need for the USD to flex imminently. In contrast, the ECBs easing would probably need to be accompanied by EUR weakness, for example. Not

56、 to mention, data in the US is still holding upbetter than many other economies, notably the Eurozone (Chart 4).That argument about the USD being supported against G10 currencies by its interest rate buffercan also apply to its outlook against EM currencies, albeit with some modification. Many EM central banks have ei